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McPhee and Loathing in Las Vegas: The Expansion Draft

Discussion in 'Rick Middleton's Pron 'Stache: Bruins Forum' started by AMcGhie, Jun 15, 2017.

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Who should the Bruins protect with their 3rd Defenseman slot?

Poll closed Jun 20, 2017.
  1. Colin Miller (1M/year, RFA after next season)

    59 vote(s)
    85.5%
  2. Kevan Miller (2.5M/year, 3 seasons left, then UFA)

    10 vote(s)
    14.5%
  3. Adam McQuaid (2.75M/year, 2 seasons left, then UFA)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. AMcGhie

    AMcGhie Set Adrift on Memory Bliss SoSH Member

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    The expansion draft is 5 days away on the 20th and the selections will be revealed on the 21st. Las Vegas will be drafting their inaugural team from the other teams in the league. They will select 1 player from the unprotected list from each team (with some restrictions).

    The draft process is documented by the NHL here: https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-expansion-draft-rules/c-281010592

    The NHL will be publishing every team's protected list sometime after the 5PM Saturday deadline for submitting them and the announcement on the selections.

    If you care about having a tool to "predict" the draft, there's one here: https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft.

    The B's biggest question comes on defense. They must protect Chara because of his NMC. They're also going to protect Torey Krug. That leaves 1 spot for 3 defensemen, K. Miller, C. Miller, and McQuaid. In all likelihood, one of the unprotected two will be Vegas' selection.
     
  2. thehitcat

    thehitcat Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,467
    By protecting Colin Miller you push Las Vegas towards selecting one of two players who are useful but similar and are more or less interchangeable on the B's.
     
  3. TFP

    TFP Dope Dope

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    16,462
    Ok - who voted for McQuaid? Care to explain why?

    I think they should protect Colin Miller for the above reason. If you protect Kevan Miller, you're almost guaranteed to have him and McQuaid on the team next year. I'd rather force the issue to not have those two very similar players as RD, especially with Carlo and McAvoy in the fold.
     
  4. AMcGhie

    AMcGhie Set Adrift on Memory Bliss SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,730
    I think if Colin is exposed, he's gone. His advanced stats were some of the best in the NHL, and he's still on his rookie deal and has RFA years left. He's not a cornerstone player by any means, but in terms of cap hit, talent, and years of control left, he's a prize compared to a lot of the other junk Vegas will be selecting from.
     
  5. Titoschew

    Titoschew Member SoSH Member

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    3,281
    While Kevan played pretty well last season, especially in the second half, this is a no brainer, you protect Colin and live with one of the others departing and really hope it's McQuaid.
     
  6. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    23,223
    I voted to protect Colin, but I believe there's another deal to be had where you can send a bunch of assets to Las Vegas (#18, Fitzgerald, insert-mid-tier-prospects-here, etc) in exchange for an agreement that they draft Hayes.
     
  7. cshea

    cshea Member SoSH Member

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    19,743
    Seems we're unanimous here. Means they'll probably protect Kevan!
     
  8. cshea

    cshea Member SoSH Member

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    I'd rather bury Hayes in Providence than send #18 away for Vegas to take him. Burying him is doable.

    My preferred route would be to try and use 18 or other future assets to grab a LHD here before the expansion draft. Problem is, it doesn't seem like there's much available at this point other than Brodin and Phaneuf and I have zero interest in the latter.
     
  9. veritas

    veritas Member SoSH Member

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    2,126
    Acquiring a defenseman better than both of them and protecting that guy is an intriguing option. Vegas can't take both Millers if they're both exposed
     
  10. TheRealness

    TheRealness Don't make him go all Lucic on your ash SoSH Member

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    10,589
    I hate the idea of sending them a 1st round pick to pick up Hayes. I'd much rather they play to their recent strengths and keep the pick. They can send Hayes to Providence.

    I also voted to keep Colin. I'm assuming the McQuaid one was either a mistake, or a joke, either way it's no longer there.

    I fully expect Kevan Miller to be picked. I would be shocked if Vegas took on McQuaid.
     
  11. jk333

    jk333 Member SoSH Member

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    2,261
    Hasn't it been previously discussed that Cassidy really likes Kevan from Providence? I'd protect Colin too, but let me make the pitch for Kevan.

    He stepped up in the playoffs as the stay at home dman on the second pairing. Between Krug and McAvoy, the Bruins wont trust Colin to play with either, so he's stuck as a 3rd pairing guy. So, Kevan fills a top 4 role next year versus Colin helping the third pairing unless there's an injury. And in 18-19', they're likely hoping to have help from the draft picks.

    Finally, Colin is only slightly cheaper than Kevan. Colin is under control for 2 years, Kevan 3. Giving a significant asset to get Vegas to take McQuaid, Beleskey or Hayes would definitely be best.

    Would Vegas take McQuaid with a second? Beleskey?
     
  12. PedroSpecialK

    PedroSpecialK Comes at you like a tornado of hair and the NHL sa Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    23,223
    To explain my position more clearly - I'm not particularly interested in Hayes' negative value, I'm just interested in satisfying the need for LV to pick someone from Boston in the expansion draft, and making it as low-impact as possible.

    To me, the collective value of getting out of the expansion draft with the team intact, with McQuaid (and potentially one of Kevan/Colin) as trade fodder for a pick post-expansion draft, is worth #18.

    edit: goes without saying that if it were Beleskey, all the better, but McPhee isn't that dense
     
  13. burstnbloom

    burstnbloom Member SoSH Member

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    1,682
    You forget that Carlo was injured in the playoffs last year. The only way Kevan is playing in the top 4 is if Carlo or McAvoy are not. He can play both sides (I guess) but Chara and Krug are on the left side. I think best case scenario (without making any moves) is Kevan is playing the bottom pair with Colin and McQuaid is gone. I'd much prefer to keep Colin for the upside and the fact that he is likely more desirable to move as a trade piece, should they need him.
     
  14. jk333

    jk333 Member SoSH Member

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    2,261
    Good point, so a Krug-Carlo second pair is most likely given that a Krug/McAvoy pairing is not ideal. So, Kevan only ends on the second pair VIA injury or poor play from Carlo. (who struggled toward the end of the season) So, similar to Colin's circumstances.
     
  15. burstnbloom

    burstnbloom Member SoSH Member

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    1,682
    Ideally in the next 23 hours before the roster freeze, there is another LHD on this roster. If I'm Sweeney, I'm talking to NYI about De Haan, Minny about Brodin and Scandella and Anaheim about Fowler. A good skating partner who can play some D for McAvoy would be huge. Then let the chips fall where they may with whoever is left that can't be protected. Chara-Carlo, Brodin-McAvoy, Krug-Kevan Miller would be a pretty good top 6.
     
  16. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,337
    The Backes NMC is a real bummer. Without that the B's could have protected 4FW and 4D and not had to worry about Kevan vs. Colin.

    I have no idea who they protect at FW beyond Krejci, Backes, Bergeron, Marchand and Pastr. Wonder if we can flip Kevan for a FW worth protecting. Force Vegas to choose between McQuaid/Spooner as their pick.
     
  17. cshea

    cshea Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    19,743
    I think the F's will be:

    Bergeron
    Marchand
    Backes
    Krejci
    Pastrnak
    Nash
    Spooner

    Spooner should have value on the trade market, so I'd prefer to protect him and trade him next week. Nash is cheap. I don't think Vegas takes a Bruin F, but the ideal scenario is forcing Vegas to have to choose between Beleskey, Hayes, K. Miller and McQuaid.
     
  18. burstnbloom

    burstnbloom Member SoSH Member

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    1,682
    Ya I agree with cshea. Keep those 4 exposed because they represent cap relief at positions with contingencies in place. It would be fantastic if they take Beleskey and the Bruins can move one of McQuaid or Miller prior to the freeze.
     
  19. BoSoxFink

    BoSoxFink Stripes SoSH Member

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    7,136
    I feel like all the beat writers have been saying for a while now that the Bruins will choose Kevan to protect over Colin and it is thr completey wrong decision and it's pissing me of.
     
  20. TheRealness

    TheRealness Don't make him go all Lucic on your ash SoSH Member

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    10,589
    Do you think Spooner has any real trade value? If so, what are you thinking? I really don't like him as a player (you've all heard this before), so I don't perceive him as having any real value. Moreover, I think he has negative value to the Bruins and they need to get his ass out of here. I would love to see him exposed and drafted. I do not want him anywhere near this team next year.
     
  21. kenneycb

    kenneycb Hates Goose Island Beer; Loves Backdoor Play SoSH Member

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    I'm sure they could get a conditional 6th or 7th for him. I would probably rather just leave him exposed in the chance Vegas falls in love with him and they grab him. If he blossoms into something great, oh well, but he sure as hell won't be blossoming in Boston.
     
  22. wnyghost

    wnyghost lurker

    Messages:
    149
    Can someone point me to the advance metrics that show Colin Miller is a good player?

    I would like to see who else is on that list.

    The guy can really skate and shoot the puck. I wondered why his game hasn't elevated until I saw him in person a few times. Terrible positioning, turnovers. Just looked like a guy who hasn't progressed beyond being physically gifted.

    Help me understand how he might be a player. Thanks
     
  23. cshea

    cshea Member SoSH Member

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    19,743
    His warts are obvious, but at the end of the day he's a speedy, 25 year old playmaker. With the league trending younger and faster, I'd imagine there's a team out there that'll value Spooner. I don't think a Spooner trade would net the B's a huge haul, but I think they should be able to get some sort of tangible asset. Maybe a 3rd or 4th round pick. As far as the Bruins are concerned- in terms of negative value, I think Beleskey, Hayes and McQuaid are ahead of Spooner.
     
  24. cshea

    cshea Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    19,743
    His shot metrics are among the best in the league. Here's his ranking among all NHL D with 750 minutes of 5x5:

    CF%- 60% 1st
    CF/60- 65.90 2nd (behind Brent Burns)
    CA/60- 43.86- 1st

    SF%- 61.6% 1st
    SF/60- 34.55 2nd (behind Dougie)
    SA/60- 21.52 1st

    When he's on the ice, the puck is usually in the other teams end. Yes, he's not as stout defensively, but he also doesn't spend a lot of time defending because he's helping to keep the puck up ice and in the offensive end. The Bruins also don't need him to be a defensive standout.
     
  25. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

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    8,337
    I don't think Spooner nets you a Kevan and certainly not a Colin Miller in trade thus I would rather he be exposed.

    If he is exposed there is a decent chance Vegas picks him. There appears to be a lot more quality D that will be available than young FWs. A 25 YO with 50-60+ pt upside should be intriguing.
     
  26. veritas

    veritas Member SoSH Member

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    2,126
    In a vacuum I think Spooner has a lot of value to this team even just as a PP specialist and 4th line winger, with potential for more at 5v5. He has the offensive skills they're a bit short on, even if he isn't any more than what he was last year. If not for the potential logjam they have at F, I'd really want to see him given another year under Cassidy
     
  27. timlinin8th

    timlinin8th Member SoSH Member

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    1,521
    I had been banging that drum for a while. If the Bruins have to lose one of Kevan/Colin, make the choice and flip the other for a forward that they can protect rather than just losing them for nothing. It also forces Vegas to pick from a Hayes, Beleskey, McQuaid pool which would be addition by subtraction.

    With the deadline starting to loom talks are picking up, I'm hoping the Bruins can get value for one of them, unless the Bruins can do something like the Brodin idea posted above, in which case you accept the loss of a Miller part of the Brodin acquisition cost.
     
  28. cshea

    cshea Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    19,743
  29. burstnbloom

    burstnbloom Member SoSH Member

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    1,682
    I don't think it makes sense to expose Spooner at all. They can't do 8 skaters because Krejci, Bergero, Marchand and Backes have NMC which means Pastrnak, Chara, Krug and one of the guys we're talking about already is still exposed. You're essentially exposing Spooner for no real benefit. I think they will certainly move him, but he's gotta be protected.
     
  30. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,337
    If you think Colin Miller and Kevan Miller are more valuable to BOS than Spooner you absolutely expose him. Given the amount of 3rd/4th line prospects they have in the pipe, I personally think it is an easy decision to expose Spooner.
     
  31. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Are they similar? Kevan's playoff series leads me to think otherwise. Not protecting McQuaid is a no-brainer for me, but I'm very much on the fence about which Miller to protect. Normally I favor youth/upside in these things, but Kevan's playoff run gives me pause.
     
  32. burstnbloom

    burstnbloom Member SoSH Member

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    1,682
    The problem is you can't protect both of them either way. You have to protect krejci, backes, Bergeron, Marchand and chara because of nmc. That's five and leaves 3 slots for skaters if you want to do 8 skaters. You need to protect Pasta and Krug, which leaves you with only one slot for Colin or Kevin. So because of the number of forwards they need to protect, they need to choose the 7 forward 3 d option. If you're doing that, why would you protect Beleskey or Hayes over Spooner? Those are your only options.
     
  33. Dummy Hoy

    Dummy Hoy Angry Pissbum SoSH Member

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    5,604
    Edit: referring to EJ

    I think that's pretty fair

    CMiller has some pretty good upside and a game that fits with the modern NHL, but KMiller was actually pretty good last season, as the eye test and some more advanced stats attest to. I disagree with a previous poster about just how bad CMiller was defensively, but he did have a couple of bad stretches and would probably need to be protected a bit, whereas I think KMiller is a pretty safe bet, albeit possibly overpriced (although likely not, and losing Quaider's less effective on ice redundancy would make us all feel better about the contract).
     
  34. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    This ignores that each team can lose only 1 player.

    They have to do the 7-3-1, for the reason you mention.

    If they would rather lose Spooner (for nothing) than lose Miller or Miller for nothing, then leaving Spooner unprotected is an obvious move.

    The reasons not to do this would be:

    1. Spooner is still in their plans in some fashion.
    2. They are optimistic that they can trade Spooner for better value than whichever Miller they will expose and lose in the draft.
     
  35. burstnbloom

    burstnbloom Member SoSH Member

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    1,682
    Who else would you protect then? Spooner clearly isn't in their plans but the setup of the protection rules almost insists that you protect him. They could certainly get something for him so why give him away for nothing?
     
  36. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

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    8,337
    You can protect anyone not named spooner if the goal is to expose him to try to protect both Millers. If Spooner is picked you keep both Millers it is that simple.
     
  37. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    18,861
    Did you even read my post? If losing Spooner for nothing is preferable to losing either Miller for nothing than there is no good reason to protect him. If it isn't preferable (you'd rather lose the Miller), then you obviously protect him.
     
  38. kenneycb

    kenneycb Hates Goose Island Beer; Loves Backdoor Play SoSH Member

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    LeBrun said on Twitter today or yesterday that Vegas has at least 3 firsts banked with more likely to come. Not a horrible way to stock a system.
     
  39. cshea

    cshea Member SoSH Member

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    One of them is CBJ. Deal is apparently CBJ 1st, Clarkson's contract and a prospect for Vegas to take William Karlsson or Ryan Murray.

    LeBrun also said teams are going to be calling Vegas when the lists are out. Try to do the "pick this guy and trade him to us" type thing.

    The league apparently insists Vegas not announce or leak anything on their end before the Wednesday reveal so that kind of sucks. They are hell bent on having people actually watch their awards ceremony.
     
  40. burstnbloom

    burstnbloom Member SoSH Member

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    I did read your post and I don't think the snark is necessary. Protecting or not protecting Spooner has nothing to do with the Millers. They have three d slots and four d to protect. Whether they decide to protect Spooner has nothing to do with them. Exposing Spooner means you have to choose another forward to protect out of Beleskey and Hayes and I guess you can make an argument that they are less valuable than Spooner, it would be a bad one.
     
  41. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    2,851
    He's saying leave Spooner unprotected as bait, so they choose him instead of the Miller you also leave unprotected. In his scenario, it doesn't matter if you protect Beleskey, Hayes, or Zac Rinaldo as your 7th forward.
     
  42. j44thor

    j44thor Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,337
    Yes exactly, Bruins will lose exactly one player to Vegas in the expansion draft. Cannot lose more than one or less than one.
    If that one is Spooner they are guaranteed not to lose the Millers. If they protect Spooner they are virtually guaranteed to lose one of the Millers because the rest of the unprotected players are basically replacement players.
     
  43. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    18,861
    Protecting or not protecting Spooner has to do with the Millers because each team can only lose 1 player. Were they to lose Spooner, then they would keep both Millers. Were they to lose one of the Millers, then they keep Spooner - whether they protect him or not. Which outcome do they prefer? If they would prefer to keep the Miller they expose than keep Spooner, then they should absolutely leave Spooner unprotected.
     
  44. AMcGhie

    AMcGhie Set Adrift on Memory Bliss SoSH Member

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  45. Jordu

    Jordu Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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  46. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    18,861
    That would be great.
     
  47. The Napkin

    The Napkin wise ass al kaprielian Dope SoSH Member

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    19,763
    Man did I hate that Subban pick.
     
  48. kenneycb

    kenneycb Hates Goose Island Beer; Loves Backdoor Play SoSH Member

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    Pretty sure someone was banned for suggesting the pick. Wish it were Chia.
     
  49. burstnbloom

    burstnbloom Member SoSH Member

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    1,682
    Ah ok, I misunderstood your point. I still don't think it makes sense, though. If Spooner is so devoid of value that they can't even trade him for a 5th round pick, I don't see why Vegas would take him over the Millers.
     
  50. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    18,861
    If that is what happens (Spooner exposed and Bruins lose Miller), then the outcome of not protecting Spooner would have been exactly the same as the outcome of protecting him.

    The only scenarios where exposing Spooner is a mistake are 1) if the Bruins would rather keep him than Miller or 2) if he can be dealt after the draft for better value than the exposed Miller. Both of these are possible but not certain.
     

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