Markelle Fultz, Year Three: He's back! Big....?
- Thread starter PedroKsBambino
- Start date
Jeez - if we are talking redrafting, Philly should be looking at trading DOWN and picking up PG Dennis Smith Jr. from NC St.
Personally, I would pass on Ball and his entire self-aggrandizing, Kardashianesque family. LA deserves Lonzo. And Lavar. And LaCriminal. And LaHomeSchooled. And the LaStank drama that follows them everywhere.
Philly fan would have a very short fuse for their crap.
Tatum, Embiid, and Simmons would be utterly terrifying in 2 years, if healthy.
True, but if I'm Danny, I take Tatum #1 overall and don't look back. LA takes Lala and the Sixers have to work from #3.
Then why trade the pick to move up!
I still don’t really get why they did that—was someone else willing to trade up to steal Fultz? I’m legit confused.
Because they thought whoever had the #1 pick - Celtics or otherwise - might take Fultz. If he's your guy, that's a big risk to take.
Last edited:
I think his better chance is injury. I agree that Ball will likely pit up enough numbers that someone will give him more than $10MM AAV.
Honestly, Covington has been Tatum plus so far and those three beat the Clippers last night with literally everyone else building a brick shithouse.
What the Sixers are lacking right now is pnr handling shooting threat. Simmons is flashing some off ball skills, esp last night, but it's a major problem for good teams, like the warriors and the celtics, that they can sag off him on a pnr, crowd embiid and dare him to shoot.
A Fultz simmons pnr is scary as Simmons can pass out of a dive to a shooter, his vision and speed of thought is that good. Think Jokic type plays. Or Embiid can pick and pop and Simmons cut to the rim for dunks etc.
Covington is perfect fit for the team. I'm not 100% convinced that Tatum at the 2 > Fultz at the 1 FOR THIS TEAM.
Fultz is a perfect fit, let me clarify the Fultz we scouted, for the holes in this team,
They have draft picks, max space, TLC, Korkmaz, Anderson (who often defends the point or SG when he comes in) and whatever they are discussing with Redick to address the 2 spot.
I'd also be open to moving Saric for a wing 2/3 3&D type.
Basically, Fultz, Redick or 3&D type, Covington, Simmons, Embiid is the starting 5
Bench TJ, TLC, Korkmaz, Anderson, Holmes, Amir/ vet big or Bolden, Saric if not moved
Trade/ dump Bayless, Sauce, Okafor maybe Saric
Also Lakers pick or Kings pick, own pick
Not really, no. The 19 year old Tatum is already better, defensively, than the seven and a half year older player in his fifth year. Covington has been a slightly better scorer, but the offensive difference is not the huge margin that you're trying to imply given that Covington is strictly a Jae Crowder type (albeit longer and bouncier).
Given the age gap Covington is as good as he's ever going to get. I'll wager that Tatum closes a good portion of the scoring gap by year's end, while continuing to improve all the other areas of his game.
I'm loving what I've seen from Tatum, but this is a stretch. Covington was 4th overall in DRPM last year, behind only Gobert, Draymond and Bogut. He grades out decently this year as well, though his lofty overall RPM early on is inflated by his ORPM, which will regress with his shooting. His length really allows him to disrupt passing lanes- he gets a ton of deflections.
I don't know that any metric is going to give much of answer to this given that it'll be looking at 14 games total for Tatum. I've certainly been very encouraged. But Covington, at least by multi-year DRPM, is an elite perimeter defender.
You should compare their DBPMs this year. Covington’s has declined due to Philly asking more of him on the offensive end this year (and this shouldn’t surprise you, Jae Crowder’s performance mirrored that last year). Maybe Philly will get another scorer and Covington can re-focus his energy on defense, but he still looks like a high functioning roleplayer that’s sacrificing one part of his game for another.
What should excite people is that Tatum looks like he’s on his way to being a dominant two way player at the age of 19. But offensively he does a lot more than hit catch & shoot treys and make back door cuts. So he has a much broader offensive game than Covington.
So, again, Covington is a marginally better scorer, but he’s also seven and a half years older. Given Tatum’s rapid improvement I’m not sure how long Covington will even maintain that advantage.
Last edited:
What is Philly asking Covington to do on the offensive now? His usage is at a career low. He's putting up points now because's getting better looks and is shooting better, but he's still not handling much offensive load.
Also, I'm not sure what you're citing DRPM for? It supports that Covington is better than Tatum defensively, so I don't follow your point.
Brown provides an update on Fultz, though no time table for a return (I believe earlier reports had him getting reevaluated this week):
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2017/11/15/brett-brown-markelle-fultz-please/
Covington's FGA/g are at a career high this year and per B-ref Tatum's DBPM is three and a half times Covington's (2.6 for Tatum to .7 for Covington).
The FGA per game are up because Philly is playing at a faster pace, not because they're asking Covington to do more on offense. He's taken 18.1 field goals per 100 possessions over his career vs. 16.9 this year. Usage is even lower.
BPM is a fine substitute when RAPM/RPM is not available, but there's not much reason to use it, especially defensively, when RPM is available. It's literally just a box-score attempt to approximate RAPM.
I infer that RPM tells the opposite story here for Covington and Tatum. Is that a sample size thing, or can the difference be that large? If the latter, BPM doesn't seem to be much of an approximation then.
There's a few things going on here, but the biggest issue is that BPM only has access to box-score stats (e.g., rebounding, steals, and blocks), and team defensive rating. To the extent a team's defensive performance can't be explained using box-score stats, BPM adds a team adjustment onto players from that team to get it to fit the team defensive rating. This adjustment is normally pretty small, since most defense can be explained using box-score stats. However, the Celtics currently have a historically great defense, but have essentially average box-score stats, so the team adjustment is huge for Boston right now (+2.8 dBPM per player).
In general however, there are always going to be some players whose defensive contribution cannot be captured with even the most sophisticated box-score metrics. For those players, you're correct BPM is just not a great approximation. The concept behind BPM is that hopefully there aren't very many of those players (the overall R^2 between dBPM and dRAPM is pretty strong), but they do exist certainly. The Celtics currently present a unique challenge in that it's a large teamwide gap however. It's a fair bet that the gap will shrink over time, but the Celtics defense may also somewhat continue to flummox box-score stats.
Thanks for that. FWIW, something that Stevens said last night really stood out to me. Yes, the Warriors missed more open shots at the end of the game than expected. But, in his words, the Celtics "guarded them hard all night" and he supposed that such effort over time wears people down. I suspect that longer guys discouraging penetration, clogging passing lanes, and contesting shots all night slows down an offense, resulting in lower percentage shots. That won't show up in box score numbers.
I appreciate those of you who take the time to explain context around some of the metrics.
I assume this is nighthob arguing that Tatum is better than Covington now?
Look Covington has been sensational this year, he is 5th in RPM 6th in win shares and he's 17th in DRPM down from 4th last year (and was 4th in DPOY last year)
The lineup of Covington, Simmons, embiid, redick and saric is the best +/- starting lineup in the league.
It is in no way insulting to Tatum to say Covington has been better. He's the perfect 3&d wing and can play 2-4.
Look Covington has been sensational this year, he is 5th in RPM 6th in win shares and he's 17th in DRPM down from 4th last year (and was 4th in DPOY last year)
The lineup of Covington, Simmons, embiid, redick and saric is the best +/- starting lineup in the league.
It is in no way insulting to Tatum to say Covington has been better. He's the perfect 3&d wing and can play 2-4.
Making progress but out another 2-3 weeks at least, per the team:
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21471325/philadelphia-76ers-rookie-markelle-fultz-progressing-least-2-3-more-weeks-shoulder-injury
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21471325/philadelphia-76ers-rookie-markelle-fultz-progressing-least-2-3-more-weeks-shoulder-injury
This part of Brown's quote is so weird to me, particularly the bolded: "We spend so much time under the constrictions that we have with making sure his head is right, his body is right, getting him to sweat with his cardio,” said Brown. “Still working on his skills that don’t affect his shot. The problem is the shoulder, the problem is the shot. So all of things that you just heard me say, are things that avoid that. And slowly we’re getting his shoulder stronger, we’re getting him more confident. What the endgame is, what the return to play is we do not know."
I know Brown ends it with a statement about how pleased Philly fans will be about the pick but he makes it seem as if the issue isn't all physical. Why would he possibly say that? Does anyone else remember a coach referring to a player's head while returning from an injury?
This whole thing is so strange to me.
Apparently he's down in Kentucky to rehab for a few days:
https://www.libertyballers.com/2017/11/30/16718798/markelle-fultz-is-rehabbing-in-kentucky-sixers-washington-76ers-philadelphia-process
So he has a shoulder injury that requires no surgery and no longer hurts but his basketball activities are minimal. And he's been in Kentucky for some reason.
He's completely shook. It's mental.
He's completely shook. It's mental.
Amico reported a while back that Fultz was in Kentucky at The Shoulder Center working on rehab under the guidance of a surgeon there. Rehabbing a shoulder is often the preferred method over surgery so this isn't surprising. I mean, it would have to be one big conspiracy now with multiple agencies involved for this to only be mental.
The team statement says he's in no pain and the imbalance has been resolved. So why three more weeks to reevaluate?
It's not a physical issue. Whether he's working with a psychologist or they're retooling his shot, this is not normal.
I've been on the yip boat from day one but claiming at this point with the information we now have that there is no shoulder problem is kinda silly. Do you feel that The Lexington Clinic, The Shoulder Center, and a nationally acclaimed shoulder surgeon in Ben Kibler are being paid to be a part of this conspiracy or would they be doing so pro bono?
The team statement says he is in no pain and has no soreness and the shoulder imbalance has been resolved.
Occam's razor suggests that his shoulder is, indeed, healed but he needs to get back in basketball shape. Furthermore, the Sixers know that while they are hoping to make the playoffs this season, a rookie Fultz isn't likely to instantly catapult them higher in the standings and that bringing him along slowly is in their best long-term interest. The 76ers were very patient in just about every way with Simmons and Embiid too.
To be clear, its entirely possible that there is something else going on here. However the involvement of all the specialists suggests that the ailment was real and not rushing Fultz back until he is entirely good to go is consistent with the way the organization has handled other players.
To be clear, its entirely possible that there is something else going on here. However the involvement of all the specialists suggests that the ailment was real and not rushing Fultz back until he is entirely good to go is consistent with the way the organization has handled other players.
I don't think that this is that uncommon. No one ever claimed that this was a structural problem with the shoulder, just a strain of some sort. He does seem to have a case of the yips, and I'm forever grateful that this is Philly's cross to bear, but I'm not doubting the reality of the shoulder problems.
Nor am I necessarily. But the team is now saying those problems are gone.
Six weeks ago they were okay with him playing through an injury and soreness because it was not structural. Since then, the soreness has gone away, and the non-structural injury has been "resolved." But we're still at least three weeks away from him playing. Its hard to see how you can classify it as a physical issue at this point.
“We are all going to go to the free-throw line and say, ‘Does it sort of pass the eye test?’ ” Brown said Thursday night. “He’s not there, yet. Everything is moving forward. But it’s not anything we are going to rush.” “There needs to be a tremendous confidence level that he has,” Brown said, “and a health-related confidence that our medical people have. As far as a timeline to what that all means, we don’t know."
Based on the team's statement about his shoulder, it seems to me that it's the eye test and the confidence level that are the elements stopping him from playing.
Last edited:
Tatum is better and will continue to be better than Covington. Thanks to your fraud team for losing to LAL.
Correct......which is why he's now back with the team. In a couple weeks after working on getting his conditioning back, increasing the workload for his shoulder, and participating in some practices/scrimmages with the team he'll be back on the court. What part are you disagreeing with about the 76ers reasonable timeline?
I find the idea of a 19 year-old who's missed six weeks with a non-debilitating shoulder injury needing at least three weeks to "get his conditioning back" patently absurd.
What's one got to do with the other?
He may be better one day he isn't now.
And secondly go take a long walk off a short pier.
The Sixers are finally handling an injury appropriately and they are still being killed for it. Those guys can't ever win.
Fultz hasn't touched a ball in six weeks or had little/no physical activity during that time.....and you'd just throw him out into an NBA game without any shoulder progression guideline, basketball activity, or practice time? That's about as absurd as him playing earlier in the season.
Yes. One guy is a 27-year old 3&D player in the midst of what appears to be a career year. Valuable, yes, but not in Tatum's league either now or going forward.
TS% .611 vs .652
PER 15.7 vs 17.8
ORtg 112 vs 123
DRtg 105 vs 101
Their per 36 counting numbers are almost identical. Covington averages 1/2 more assist and steal a game, but turns it over more. Both have 17 points, 7 rebounds, 1 block.
PER 15.7 vs 17.8
ORtg 112 vs 123
DRtg 105 vs 101
Their per 36 counting numbers are almost identical. Covington averages 1/2 more assist and steal a game, but turns it over more. Both have 17 points, 7 rebounds, 1 block.