Markelle Fultz, Year Three: He's back! Big....?

LondonSox

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Yeah they voted for Dunn en mass last year.
The GM intern poll is meaningless.

I am a bit bemused why he's such an afterthought though. Some people have said it's his situation.
 

jmm57

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Correct.

Dunn was the projected RoY. A bunch of the mock draft sites also loved Dunn/Bender. They won't be perfect, but I'll take nba gm opinions over the alternative.

I think the narrative that Fultz was the clear cut #1 overall was just wrong or at least overstated. I think he was a worthy #1, but not consensus.
 

LondonSox

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Well I don't have the ability to talk to gms but it seems pretty clear everyone who did and does their own scouting agreed on it.
It was 100% consensus until the Boston trade, which was a total shock to nearly everyone.

You're right on the Roy vote, not this one was Dunn, but it still stands out as highlighting that it's not exactly meaningful.

And Simmons is interesting so 70% last year and now 14% because of a freak foot injury from landing on someone's foot?

Maybe every draft expert is wrong or maybe his injury in summer league, and his weird shot changes and a dumb survey has resulted in a dumb result.

I don't know. But I still haven't heard anyone change their view, and there's no reason to frankly. Hot takes aside
 

jmm57

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It's a hot take to say Fultz may not have been the consensus #1 among NBA gms when 79% in the nba.com poll didn't think he would be the best player in 5 years, and when the team that got #1 actually traded away the pick? OK I guess.

I have no idea who will turn out to be the best guy, but it appears there isn't a consensus among the people who actually make the picks.

If the draft experts were so great I'd imagine a team would hire them, since getting the draft right is one of the most important aspects of running an organization.
 

djbayko

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It's also worth noting that some teams may not do a lot of scouting of players sure to go at the top of the draft. There can easily be a snowball effect whereby people are easily influenced by what they think is the consensus pick. Furthermore, this lack of information can cause things like Boston trading the #1 and Summer League results to further influence their opinions.
 

Gash Prex

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Shooting 2/13 is probably not going to quiet the concerns about his shooting form - it’s early but I’d be super nervous as a sixers fan
 

JakeRae

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Well I don't have the ability to talk to gms but it seems pretty clear everyone who did and does their own scouting agreed on it.
It was 100% consensus until the Boston trade, which was a total shock to nearly everyone.

You're right on the Roy vote, not this one was Dunn, but it still stands out as highlighting that it's not exactly meaningful.

And Simmons is interesting so 70% last year and now 14% because of a freak foot injury from landing on someone's foot?

Maybe every draft expert is wrong or maybe his injury in summer league, and his weird shot changes and a dumb survey has resulted in a dumb result.

I don't know. But I still haven't heard anyone change their view, and there's no reason to frankly. Hot takes aside
I thought he was a clear consensus too, but that appears to either have been wrong, or GM's feel differently now. Either way, that is meaningful because this sort of parity in these picks is the outlier, not the norm. It happened a few years ago with Wiggins, Embiid, and Parker when there was a clear top 3 but a lack of consensus after that and it happened a decade ago in an awful draft. But, there's generally a pretty clear leader that was also the consensus top talent. This year, there is not, and that matters. (Simmons drop this year is not just a product of his injury. The top 4 guys in this year's class are all better prospects than Ingram was, and there was no competition after Ingram last year.)

The rookie of the year thing is a lot harder to pick. Age and opportunity are important too. Picking Dunn last year made sense since he and Hield were the old players who went at the top of the draft, Simmons was hurt, and there was no other impact talent that looked remotely ready to play at the NBA level. That said, the RoY votes are probably pretty meaningless. The best player in 5 years are where you'd expect to see a consensus if there was one. There isn't one this year, now, even if there may have been one at the draft.
 

DannyDarwinism

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His 2 makes were both dunks.
I watched most of the game, one was a lay-up off of a gimme where Simmons collapsed the defense, at least two misses were shot clock/game clock desperation heaves. He penetrated with relative ease, but was unable to finish or unwilling to initiate contact when he got in the lane. I think that will change. He's definitely bulked up since college, so he should be able to absorb contact.

While I'm not changing my evaluation of him off of 13 shots in his first preseason game, watching him and Simmons together does give me a bit more pause as to his fit. In transition, they can do fun things, but I haven't really seen much in terms of off-the-ball skills from Fultz. Which is understandable, because he rightly has been ball-dominant in his young career, but Simmons absolutely should be the primary ball handler- his upside in that regard is as high as anyone in the East not name Giannis. If I were a Sixers fan I'd have some concern that taking the ball out of Fultz's hands undermines a substantial part of his value and causes him to become less engaged overall. And I have no idea what's going on with him in that free-throw video, that is not pretty.

Simmons could be very good very quickly. His jump shot will determine just how high his ceiling is.
 

Cesar Crespo

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And Simmons is interesting so 70% last year and now 14% because of a freak foot injury from landing on someone's foot?
As someone else noted, this year's rookie class is a lot better than last years. Also, foot injuries are always worrisome in basketball and the taller the player, the more worrisome the injuries are. Luckily Simmons isn't that tall because once you get over 7'0, it gets really ugly. It's why I wanted no part of Kristaps for the rumored package. Also, there was no way Fultz was 100% consensus, unless that is just bad wording. He was definitely the consensus pick, but maybe 60% of GMs were in agreement about it.

And almost everyone on this board wanted Kris Dunn last year and lots of people wanted to avoid Jaylen Brown.
 

HomeRunBaker

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No, I think Simmons would still be a consensus #1 compared to the 2016 draft class. The 2017 class was stronger.
No doubt Simmons would still be #1 in 2016 but I'm surprised so few of those polled wouldn't feel he's the favorite for ROY this season.......maybe some didn't know he was eligible for the award or simply forgot that he was eligible? That's the only thing that makes any sense. If Simmons was in this 2017 does anyone feel he would have gone anywhere but #1 to Philly?
 

luckiestman

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No doubt Simmons would still be #1 in 2016 but I'm surprised so few of those polled wouldn't feel he's the favorite for ROY this season.......maybe some didn't know he was eligible for the award or simply forgot that he was eligible? That's the only thing that makes any sense. If Simmons was in this 2017 does anyone feel he would have gone anywhere but #1 to Philly?

Celtics don't trade the pick
 

Ed Hillel

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I’d rather have Tatum than Simmons and I’d guess Danny would, too.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’d rather have Tatum than Simmons and I’d guess Danny would, too.
Wait, you would have taken Tatum over Fultz had we kept the #1 pick? I'm not going to do a search but I don't recall many, if anyone here, who took that position prior to the trading of the pick.
 

JakeRae

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Wait, you would have taken Tatum over Fultz had we kept the #1 pick? I'm not going to do a search but I don't recall many, if anyone here, who took that position prior to the trading of the pick.
At the time of the draft, when I was still confident Fultz was the best prospect in this class, I would've taken Tatum over Simmons. Simmons not just not being able to shoot but being afraid to do so is a big red flag.
 

Ed Hillel

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Wait, you would have taken Tatum over Fultz had we kept the #1 pick? I'm not going to do a search but I don't recall many, if anyone here, who took that position prior to the trading of the pick.
That wasn’t the question. Simmons’ shooting issues are a big concern to me and I love Tatum’s floor. I’d take him over Simmons.

I am and have been fairly ambivalent on Tatum vs. Fultz vs. Jackson (I also liked Isaac, though it would appear he’s gonna have issues), but I liked the trade. Today, I’d definitely take Tatum and Jackson over Fultz, who has a lower floor than I thought. The shot as of now is pretty ugly.
 
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DourDoerr

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I'd take Tatum over Fultz and Simmons now. If I'm honest, I probably wouldn't have said that earlier due to the buzz on Fultz and I didn't know much sbout Tatum. In the NBA now it's all about shooting and spacing and I don't like Simmons' lack of shooting skill. Rondo would lead the NBA in assists and could still be a liability at the end of games - particularly as he got more and more yippie on FTs over the years.
The negatives that gave me pause on Fultz was some weirdness that was reported between he and his teammates - plus he couldn't get that team to .500.
 

nighthob

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Wait, you would have taken Tatum over Fultz had we kept the #1 pick? I'm not going to do a search but I don't recall many, if anyone here, who took that position prior to the trading of the pick.
I had him 1a on my board.
 

benhogan

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Lol wow.

Ok I think I should just stay off these boards which is a shame. The homer takes are just too much.
26 pages and 3+ years of "The sixers and building a winner", it would be a shame to see it all go to waste. This is the 76ers year!

Ainge & Co have much more intelligence pre-draft then we do, so it's perfectly fine for fans/posters/homers to start drawing their opinions now (after a few pre-season/Summer League games) on who will be better between Fultz v Tatum v Jackson v Ball. AND trying to figure out what led the Celtics to trade #1 for #3+.
 

Jimbodandy

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Lol wow.

Ok I think I should just stay off these boards which is a shame. The homer takes are just too much.
Don't leave now, when they finally have a shot to break .500 for the first time in a while.

I'm taking my 14yo to Monday's game. He's a huge Celtics fan but probably is more psyched to see Philly at the moment.
 

tbrown_01923

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There is a fluidity to Simmons game that is super enticing, but at this point (IMO) he Draymond without the D or the acceptable outside shot. I wonder if he can be in the middle with Joel spreading the floor on offense - if he can then it is much more interesting - setting picks, rolling, and passing... He isn't a great match around Okafor, there isn't enough space. It is going to be interesting to see him and philly develop.

London - I like your enthusiasm but your posts lean "philly positive" too. While they have done a great job of collecting raw talent. It is largely a group of folks who haven't played much in the NBA, have a history of injuries (hopefully for the league they aren't detrimental to careers), have a couple of folks who struggled to win in the NCAAs, and largely missed on Okafor and possibly Noel. There is an awful lot they need to prove on the court - as there are still a handful of questions.

BTW - I was pro tatum prior to the trade. He just made too much sense for this team. IMO he was always going to be able to score - and that would have been enough IMO. As I see it now, he looks like he may learn how to be acceptable on D eventually.
 

Ed Hillel

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I agree with you here.

Fultz was the guy everyone was drooling over. Tatum was barely mentioned until the trade.
This conversation came about after a recent poll from NBA GMs (who, btw, must also be Celtics homers). Forget draft night, who would you rather have now, given we have more information? Fultz is certainly still a legitimate pick, but it doesn’t take a homer to choose Tatum. Especially now that the Celtics have Kyrie with a strong chance to hold him for the future.
BTW - I was pro tatum prior to the trade. He just made too much sense for this team. IMO he was always going to be able to score - and that would have been enough IMO. As I see it now, he looks like he may learn how to be acceptable on D eventually.
Acceptable? I think he has the length and athleticism to be a plus defender. How his body fills out will have some impact obviously.
 

DourDoerr

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Lol wow.

Ok I think I should just stay off these boards which is a shame. The homer takes are just too much.
You're right. One should form an opinion and stick to it - even when presented with new and better information. That's the way everything improves.

Watching video of players in college is problematic because of the wildly uneven talent levels. It's always somewhat eye-opening when you finally get a glimpse of a player in 5-on-5 situation with real NBA players. Tatum hasn't disappointed to say the least.
 

snowmanny

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Eh. I absolutely wanted Fultz but there was always a top 4 to this draft. Ainge mentioned all four lottery night. The guy I heard a lot of people (not on this board) mention as the best player was Ball. I heard a couple of people in the media talk about Tatum as maybe the best guy based on his ACC tourney play. But sure most of us were psyched by Fultz when he looked like the pick even though the shooting percentages were a little funky.
 

the moops

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I was only referring to the folks who said they had Tatum over Fultz way back when. Go back and read the draft lottery thread. As soon as the ball was picked for BOS #1, the only name mentioned was Fultz
 

luckiestman

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I was only referring to the folks who said they had Tatum over Fultz way back when. Go back and read the draft lottery thread. As soon as the ball was picked for BOS #1, the only name mentioned was Fultz

As someone who has no idea about college basketball but is a Celtics junky, I think you are mostly right. The information (on various forums) seemed to be the Celtics liked Fultz or Jackson. Right around the trade most in national media seemed to think the move was for Jackson (a notable exception is Kevin O'Connor who seems like the only guy alive who has actual Celtic's sources).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I was only referring to the folks who said they had Tatum over Fultz way back when. Go back and read the draft lottery thread. As soon as the ball was picked for BOS #1, the only name mentioned was Fultz
I'm not sure why it matters what a bunch of people on a bunch of message boards say but yes, in the "Plan for the #1, err #3 pick" thread, I believe the first references to someone other than Fultz was when the rumours started popping up that DA was shopping the pick. However, if you read the NBA draft thread - http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?search/20111303/&q=tatum&t=post&o=date&c[thread]=16589 - there were some people who were skeptical of Fultz as consensus #1 (not me).

But again, who cares?

Anyone have any information on Fultz's sore shoulder? He seems to get nicked a lot.
 

benhogan

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I'm not sure why it matters what a bunch of people on a bunch of message boards say but yes, in the "Plan for the #1, err #3 pick" thread, I believe the first references to someone other than Fultz was when the rumours started popping up that DA was shopping the pick. However, if you read the NBA draft thread - http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?search/20111303/&q=tatum&t=post&o=date&c[thread]=16589 - there were some people who were skeptical of Fultz as consensus #1 (not me).

But again, who cares?

Anyone have any information on Fultz's sore shoulder? He seems to get nicked a lot.
+1
I just had read the first few pages on that thread and immediately a lot of the Board wanted to shop the #1 pick (to Philly was cited several times). The takeaway then was: Fultz was going #1, was a better fit for Philly, and the spread between him/Tatum/Ball/Jackson was razor thin so add more assets.

Danny basically came out and stated that Fultz was not his #1 pick and he rated Tatum higher. A lot of us are happy with the outcome, I guess that makes us homers.
 

JakeRae

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I was only referring to the folks who said they had Tatum over Fultz way back when. Go back and read the draft lottery thread. As soon as the ball was picked for BOS #1, the only name mentioned was Fultz
I've only seen one or two people actually say that. I don't know if they are expressing an opinion consistent with their past opinions, but I also don't really care.

I thought Fultz was the obvious choice going into the draft. I'm not sure who I'd pick today, but I certainly don't think it's clear that it would be Tatum. I think both are really great prospects, and both are better that Simmons, who is also a really great prospect. I think reasonable people could differ as to which they would choose. I think the GM poll is a strong point of evidence supporting this being correct. (That is, that it is a close call, not who is better.)

The idea that Celtics fans would lean toward preferring our player over those on the Sixers is certainly homerism, but it's hard to understand how it is objectionable. It's not like people are claiming Ojeleye is a better prospect than Fultz. Where there is a legitimate debate, and there is one here, you should generally expect fans to prefer their own player, that's the nature of fandom.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I thought Fultz was the obvious choice going into the draft. I'm not sure who I'd pick today, but I certainly don't think it's clear that it would be Tatum. I think both are really great prospects, and both are better that Simmons, who is also a really great prospect.
You're not the first to state this but I'd personally take Simmons over Fultz and Tatum. Even though Ben can't shoot and doesn't really play defense. Yet. His skills and the things he can do on the offensive end are so outrageous that if he becomes a passible shooter and defender, he's like top 10 easy.

Tatum is starting to look like he has the highest floor though.
 

Manzivino

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I feel similarly about Simmons as I do about Ball, if either could shoot they would be no doubt generational talents because of the vision and passing they bring. As it is I'd still take Simmons over any other 2016/2017 draftee as a prospect without hesitating, all the tools are there and if he does improve his shot he's a superstar. I would have taken Fultz over Tatum at the draft and I don't think summer league and 2 preseason games are a meaningful enough sample to change that opinion. I'm not sure why Fultz tinkered with his shot mechanics but I still expect him to figure it out and be a proficient three-level scorer in the pros. What I've seen from Tatum makes me more comfortable giving up Fultz for him and an additional lottery pick, but I still think it's more likely that Fultz turns into a top 10 guy than Tatum does.
 

LondonSox

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I was reacting more to the Tatum over Simmons take than the already far too common Tatum was the number one pick really.
Whatever on that and frankly we won't know the answer for years.

I find the flip from fultz is awesome to he was shit all along with no new tape more amusing than anything. I wish I had a an organisation I trusted to make a statistically odd decision that strongly in my life. It's jealousy of that trust as much as anything lol. (I remember trusting Theo that much and it was great )

But the Tatum I'd take over Simmons take is just stop.

I know I have homerism on players but I try to challenge myself with the actual stats and separate appreciation from good player. I love saric. He's bizarre, hilarious and gave up real money to come play when he did. He's capable of such highs and such passes and is just such a potential heel for rival teams as to be a crush.

Hes not however very good. I hope he becomes good, and he has potential, and will likely be a fun bench player. But I know I have to check myself. I will defend my takes on process and hinkie to the death. I regard this more as philosophy on how to approach team building and as such is as provable as the argument and no more.
 

Imbricus

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The other thing about Fultz is, he seems a bit fragile. Shoulder soreness now, ankle injury cut short his summer league season, knee injury caused him to miss the end of his last season at Washington (that's the one that would scare me the most). Anyway, I bet there's a good chance he only sees 50 or 60 games this year because of various injuries.
 

tims4wins

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Seems entirely possible that Ainge could have thought Fultz was the most talented player but due to combination of health concerns and roster fit he wanted Tatum more. It doesn’t have to be Tatum Awesome Fults Sucks
 

tbrown_01923

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I didn't differentiate between Fultz, Ball, Tatum. They all have upside and they all have concerns, it really was about fit. I thought that Tatum was the best fit for the C's and to date has done more than Fultz (IMO) to demonstrate that value. Every time I tune to Fultz he seems to be not playing (summer league, preseason) - at this point none of those three have really separated themselves significantly.

Simmons has different level smoothness. But there are questions about team structure around him. Avery Bradley would have been a great fit for that team. Shooter on offense and a disruptor at point on d. Maybe an all 3&D backcourt is an ideal mix... Fultz isn't that though and I wonder if 'the process' is going to force their hand on trade before fultz maximizes value. Because Joel, Simmons and a bunch of shooters/cutters would be a ton of fun to watch...
 

bowiac

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I don't think the Tatum ahead of the Simmons takes are totally ridiculous. I don't agree with it, as I don't particularly like Tatum - I think he's a pretty mediocre prospect, and his performance in summer and preseason has mostly hurt his stock for me, but Simmons' shooting issues look real so far, and could be more important than Tatum's flaws in terms of translating to actual NBA success.

Ball is on another level from any of these guys in my opinion.
 

Sprowl

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I don't think the Tatum ahead of the Simmons takes are totally ridiculous. I don't agree with it, as I don't particularly like Tatum - I think he's a pretty mediocre prospect, and his performance in summer and preseason has mostly hurt his stock for me, but Simmons' shooting issues look real so far, and could be more important than Tatum's flaws in terms of translating to actual NBA success.

Ball is on another level from any of these guys in my opinion.
Is that level higher or lower?

I have no view yet about Simmons v Fultz v Tatum -- I'll wait until they have a few regular season games under their belt. So far, Tatum has nice footwork, but against Charlotte showed a tendency to rush his shot. He seemed to slow it down against Philadelphia, and recognized driving opportunities better. He is long enough to play effective defense, although like Jaylen Brown, he probably won't put it together in his rookie year.
 

lexrageorge

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I don't think the Tatum ahead of the Simmons takes are totally ridiculous. I don't agree with it, as I don't particularly like Tatum - I think he's a pretty mediocre prospect, and his performance in summer and preseason has mostly hurt his stock for me, but Simmons' shooting issues look real so far, and could be more important than Tatum's flaws in terms of translating to actual NBA success.

Ball is on another level from any of these guys in my opinion.
Everything I've heard to date about Tatum's preseason has been the complete opposite of the bolded. He's gotten nearly universal acclaim from his so far limited action, more so than Jaylen Brown did last year (or any of last year's healthy rookies) at this time last year. Just curious what you see that has you turn further down on him.
 

sezwho

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...I don't particularly like Tatum - I think he's a pretty mediocre prospect, and his performance in summer and preseason has mostly hurt his stock for me...
Thats a pretty rough take on Tatum. He had some deer in headlight moments for sure, but I'm curious what you saw that hurt his already mediocre stock? He put in some points, grabbed some boards and even got a couple assists...is it the defense? I did watch and didn't see anything that made me wince.


edit: also what lex said first...
 

PedroKsBambino

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I imagine bowiac is looking at the analytics and translations for these guys, which tend to love Ball.

I personally don't think anyone with a 'scouting' bent would describe Tatum's summer league as anything but a positive. However, I also think no one using either a scouting or an analytics lens should put much weight at all on summer league and a pre-season game or two! And I doubt many here are.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I was reacting more to the Tatum over Simmons take than the already far too common Tatum was the number one pick really.
Whatever on that and frankly we won't know the answer for years.

I find the flip from fultz is awesome to he was shit all along with no new tape more amusing than anything. I wish I had a an organisation I trusted to make a statistically odd decision that strongly in my life. It's jealousy of that trust as much as anything lol. (I remember trusting Theo that much and it was great )

But the Tatum I'd take over Simmons take is just stop.

I know I have homerism on players but I try to challenge myself with the actual stats and separate appreciation from good player. I love saric. He's bizarre, hilarious and gave up real money to come play when he did. He's capable of such highs and such passes and is just such a potential heel for rival teams as to be a crush.

Hes not however very good. I hope he becomes good, and he has potential, and will likely be a fun bench player. But I know I have to check myself. I will defend my takes on process and hinkie to the death. I regard this more as philosophy on how to approach team building and as such is as provable as the argument and no more.
You are a 76ers fan who is blowing Ben Simmons. Your homerism isn't any different. The guy hasn't even played in an official NBA game yet.