Markelle Fultz, Year Three: He's back! Big....?

[nighthob]

You're not the first to state this but I'd personally take Simmons over Fultz and Tatum. Even though Ben can't shoot and doesn't really play defense. Yet. His skills and the things he can do on the offensive end are so outrageous that if he becomes a passible shooter and defender, he's like top 10 easy.

I think all three guys have the upside of top ten player, but let me be a contrarian here for a moment. Because I don't think it's that simple a question. The question to ask is what happens if they can never fix their real issues.

First, I am definitely not on the Fultz downtrain. He does seem to have some psychological yips at this moment, but I strongly suspect that's just a rookie/#1 pick thing. I'll be stunned if that is ever a real issue. The issue I see with him is one of defensive aggression/effort. What happens if he just can't, for whatever reason, invest himself on that end? Well, i suspect that the result is that you end up with a poor man's James Harden, which is still a damned good result for #1.

Tatum's main issue that I see is the physical/upside question. I don't think he's explosive enough for the smaller wing spots, so he probably needs to be more of a power 3 (since those guys are the new prototypical 4s in the pace & space era). How athletic will he be at 235-240? Defense is also an issue, but breaking his way in on this team somewhat ameliorates that. I'd be more worried if he were breaking in on a young team. His floor is so high and he does so much well that I think he's almost a sure bet to be a top 50 player.

Simmons' issue, of course, is the horrific shooting. and I don't like the Greek Freak comparisons for him because the GF always had the otherworldly athleticism to fall back on. So even Giannis' his shot never came around his floor was an all-NBA defender with the upside of DPoY candidate that could be an MVP candidate if he developed as much perimeter game as Kevin Garnett (one reason a lot of us wanted him in 2014).

Simmons doesn't have that ability to devour court space defensively, so the possibility that the shot never comes around puts his floor pretty low in comparison with the other two guys. So I have no qualms about people thinking that the other two are better prospects.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

NM wrong thread

 

[bowiac]

Is that level higher or lower?

I meant on a higher level. Ball was always the analytics darling, but he had questions about his athleticism which made him a risk (I was largely indifferent between him and Fultz for instance when the Celtics had the #1 pick). He has not looked like he doesn't belong so far, so I'm more inclined to take projections at face value than I was pre-draft now.

Everything I've heard to date about Tatum's preseason has been the complete opposite of the bolded. He's gotten nearly universal acclaim from his so far limited action, more so than Jaylen Brown did last year (or any of last year's healthy rookies) at this time last year. Just curious what you see that has you turn further down on him.

The shot selection and the lack of any instinct in him to pass is what's giving me pause. I think both of those are going to be very difficult to improve (in particularly the passing), and both are going to be key skills for him if he's going to become an impact player. He's gotten praise (rightfully so) for having a pretty smooth and advanced iso game, but I am skeptical of the value of that skillset if not paired with good shot selection and passing.

His defense has actually looked fine. I don't think he's going to develop into Kawhi or something, but based on the handful of games we've seen, I don't think he's going to be a debacle either. Of course, given the importance of team defense these days, that's even harder to judge in preseason/summer league.

Edit: I did do a stats translation of summer league stats to project rookie year performance, and it wasn't kind to Tatum, but that's not my "concern" with him. It's really mostly a scouting take that he seems to have bad instincts when he has the ball (shooting, and not passing to open guys).

 

[bowiac]

I should add, by "mediocre prospect", I'm grading on a "top 3 pick" curve here. I think his iso game will play regardless, and I think he's going to be able to shoot from outside, so he's a pretty high floor guy. I'd call him a rich man's DeMar DeRozan, but since I think DeRozan is perhaps the most overrated player in the league, that may not convey quite the right sentiment.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The shot selection and the lack of any instinct in him to pass is what's giving me pause. I think both of those are going to be very difficult to improve, and both are going to be key skills for him if he's going to become an impact player. He's gotten praise (rightfully so) for having a pretty smooth and advanced iso game, but I am skeptical of the value of that skillset if not paired with good shot selection and passing.

I don't think you can really look to summer league to see how he's going to play. But with respect to the pre-season and what I've seen - all of game 2 and 1/2 of game 1 - I'm surprised you are bringing up shot selection and passing as an issue. He was taking and making open shots and being deferential to GH, Kyrie, and Al. Plus, he has showed a pretty good spring in his step and was matched up against Simmons and did a credible job.

I think Tatum's going to play and produce more this year than JB did last year.

http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/jayson-tatum-felt-way-more-comfortable-against-sixers

 

[luckiestman]

Tatum is going to be Carmelo Anthony that plays defense. I'll take it

 

[bowiac]

I don't think you can really look to summer league to see how he's going to play. But with respect to the pre-season and what I've seen - all of game 2 and 1/2 of game 1 - I'm surprised you are bringing up shot selection and passing as an issue. He was taking and making open shots and being deferential to GH, Kyrie, and Al. Plus, he has showed a pretty good spring in his step and was matched up against Simmons and did a credible job.

I think Tatum's going to play and produce more this year than JB did last year.

http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/jayson-tatum-felt-way-more-comfortable-against-sixers

Summer league has some real predictive power - you just need to look a bit more granularly, but you can predict something like 35% of rookie year BPM using summer league stats. Not huge, but not nothing.

As far as preseason goes, it'd take me a bit of time to bring up clips, but he seemed to pass up open guys to drive to the hoop for a contested shot a decent amount. It's nice that he has the confidence in his handle to go the rim like that, but I'd rather he just pass to the open guy there. I agree shot selection has looked better in preseason.

 

[zoolight.space]

Tatum is going to be Carmelo Anthony that plays defense. I'll take it

I'm sure this is a joke but in the event anyone takes it seriously --- Carmelo Anthony was a transformational player in college in his one year and his iso game is as advanced as any player has ever had. Jason Tatum was a good college player with a strong iso game. The gulf there is staggering. But that said it brings up a pretty good point. The highest ceiling Tatum has which is so high as to be unreachable, is not a skillset the league needs very much of anymore.

 

[nighthob]

If only he wasn't so terrified of playing on the big stage of UNC...

 

[zoolight.space]

Tatum was awesome in college; I loved watching him play.

Do you think the NBA is still an iso league on offense?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

you know that Tatum won the team 3P shooting contest, correct?

 

[Manzivino]

I think Tatum’s shot selection is fixable longterm (in terms of cutting down on long 2s and not dribbling himself into a position where a contested ISO is the only option), I’m not sure the passing instinct is. I expect when he’s playing with the starters he’s going to look awesome knocking down open looks and when he plays with the bench he’s going to be a ball stopper.

 

[zoolight.space]

you know that Tatum won the team 3P shooting contest, correct?

No, I did not know that he won the team three-point shooting contest.

 

[zoolight.space]

I did watch every minute of his college basketball career, but did not know that he won HORSE at a Celtics practice.

 

[tbrown_01923]

I am going to pay more attention to his ball tendencies with second unit. I am mostly encouraged by him, he seems (to my eye) a different layer than at UNC. Maybe I am being deceived by circumstance and opportunity. Where he is now and how he has performed - I don't mind his defense. He has been better there than I thought. Looks to have potential to be an above average rebounder and seems to "want" to move his feet.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I think summer league and preseason is a bit early to declare that Tatum has no passing instinct.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

Tatum is going to be Carmelo Anthony that plays defense. I'll take it

This is why people get bashed for being homers. Melo w defense is a top 5 player in the league.

Tatum is interesting. Celtics clearly see a market inefficiency in ISO type players. There is value having a guy who can get his own shot AND play pace and space. Kyrie can do that. Whether Tatum can or not remains to be seen.

 

[luckiestman]

This is why people get bashed for being homers. Melo w defense is a top 5 player in the league.

Top 5? More like top 1, buddy.

 

[nighthob]

Tatum was awesome in college; I loved watching him play.

Do you think the NBA is still an iso league on offense?

At the end of the game it is.

 

[zoolight.space]

I am going to pay more attention to his ball tendencies with second unit. I am mostly encouraged by him, he seems (to my eye) a different layer than at UNC. Maybe I am being deceived by circumstance and opportunity. Where he is now and how he has performed - I don't mind his defense. He has been better there than I thought. Looks to have potential to be an above average rebounder and seems to "want" to move his feet.

Agreed that he is a different layer than he was at UNC.

 

[JakeRae]

I should add, by "mediocre prospect", I'm grading on a "top 3 pick" curve here. I think his iso game will play regardless, and I think he's going to be able to shoot from outside, so he's a pretty high floor guy. I'd call him a rich man's DeMar DeRozan, but since I think DeRozan is perhaps the most overrated player in the league, that may not convey quite the right sentiment.

I think DeRozan is a strange comp since he can't shoot the three. If Tatum is DeRozan with range and decent defense and can learn to set aside long jumpers, he's an extremely valuable player.

I do agree that his passing is a major concern. He's been a little better in preseason but he's still hasn't been good. My preference for him over Simmons is that I don't think there's any hope for Simmons to learn to shoot unless he realizes he's doing it with the wrong hand, and then it's probably a many year process of doing so. Without a real jump shot, I don't know how impactful he can be on offense, even with his passing. For example, people talk about the potential of a Simmons/Embiid PnR game, but if Simmons cannot shoot, going under screens isn't a problem, and that collapses. If he can't shoot, his ceiling is basically a tall Rondo.

 

[JCizzle]

I think DeRozan is a strange comp since he can't shoot the three. If Tatum is DeRozan with range and decent defense and can learn to set aside long jumpers, he's an extremely valuable player.

I do agree that his passing is a major concern. He's been a little better in preseason but he's still hasn't been good. My preference for him over Simmons is that I don't think there's any hope for Simmons to learn to shoot unless he realizes he's doing it with the wrong hand, and then it's probably a many year process of doing so. Without a real jump shot, I don't know how impactful he can be on offense, even with his passing. For example, people talk about the potential of a Simmons/Embiid PnR game, but if Simmons cannot shoot, going under screens isn't a problem, and that collapses. If he can't shoot, his ceiling is basically a tall Rondo.

I think this is just my favorite NBA conspiracy theory (which happens to likely be true). Such a bizarre, unique situation.

 

[LondonSox]

I think DeRozan is a strange comp since he can't shoot the three. If Tatum is DeRozan with range and decent defense and can learn to set aside long jumpers, he's an extremely valuable player.

I do agree that his passing is a major concern. He's been a little better in preseason but he's still hasn't been good. My preference for him over Simmons is that I don't think there's any hope for Simmons to learn to shoot unless he realizes he's doing it with the wrong hand, and then it's probably a many year process of doing so. Without a real jump shot, I don't know how impactful he can be on offense, even with his passing. For example, people talk about the potential of a Simmons/Embiid PnR game, but if Simmons cannot shoot, going under screens isn't a problem, and that collapses. If he can't shoot, his ceiling is basically a tall Rondo.

You appreciate that embiid can shoot though right?
I love how you guys project Tatum to make a big improvement defensively (despite being slow laterally and stiff) and be a great three point shooter and think he can learn to pass (while not doing it in college).
Projecting all that is fine, but Simmons cannot possibly learn to be an average shooter.

You guys are fun

 

[Montana Fan]

Neither Dr. J. nor Magic had an outside shot when they entered the NBA. If took a few years for each of them to develop one but they both didn’t have the handed ness issue that Simmons has. Time will tell but it likely will take a while.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

I don’t care if he can shoot or not but I’m much more skeptical of his D. Never saw him put in much work on that end at LSU and it’ll be trouble if Embiid continues to Embiid and BS ends up paired with the likes of Saric and Okafor more than anyone would like. Basically the whole experiment is resting on an injury-plagued 7+ footer. Precedent is not great on that front. A Simmons and Fultz-led team would be fun I’m sure but not much of a winner without the big man.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Double post

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

As far as preseason goes, it'd take me a bit of time to bring up clips, but he seemed to pass up open guys to drive to the hoop for a contested shot a decent amount. It's nice that he has the confidence in his handle to go the rim like that, but I'd rather he just pass to the open guy there. I agree shot selection has looked better in preseason.

Didn't see any of this against PHI. While Tatum's not going to be an assist monster, from what I remember, he kept the ball moving (except one sequence when he was guarded by Reddick and canned a fallaway that JJ had no chance of contesting) and took open shots. I think he's going to make more open shots than he misses and be should get quite a few of them.

I'm not sure how he would have played if he had been drafted by a bad team like the Lakers but he's appropriately deferential so there's not going to be many ISO opportunities for him this year outside of garbage time. Which is probably good for his growth.

Tatum isn't Melo, so it's a good thing that no one is asking him to be 'Melo (although he's way more athletic than 'Melo ever was, which should help on the defensive end). From early indications, I think for this year the Cs are better off with Kyrie, GH, Tatum, with the Lakers pick as a bonus, than Fultz, GH, an injured IT4, Jae, with the Brk pick in their back pocket..

Hope that remains true through the year and that's completely ignoring '19, '20,and beyond.

 

[Jimbodandy]

God this forum is depressing sometimes. Extrapolating summer league stats is nonsense. At best you get a scouting take from summer league. And a guy who has the ability to score in isolation is not and never will be a skillset that the NBA doesn't need. Of course, that's not to say that 1970's isolation-dominant offense is efficient or a good idea. But having that skill in your back pocket is not a bad thing to have when you need it. And "omg he doesn't find the open guy" when he hasn't played an NBA game yet is also nonsense. Nonsense, I say.

 

[the moops]

A tall Rubio is a damn fine basketball player.

 

[JakeRae]

You appreciate that embiid can shoot though right?
I love how you guys project Tatum to make a big improvement defensively (despite being slow laterally and stiff) and be a great three point shooter and think he can learn to pass (while not doing it in college).
Projecting all that is fine, but Simmons cannot possibly learn to be an average shooter.

You guys are fun

I appreciate the Embiid can shoot. My point is that teams will be able to sag off Simmons like they say off Rondo which will limit his PnR ability. Nothing to do with Embiid. Embiid is awesome when he plays and his only question mark is health.

As for Tatum, I expressed concern about his passing and think he's shown the tools to be an average defensive player, but I do project him to be a very good shooter from three. He has good shooting form, shot ok from three in college, shot very well from the free throw line, and shoots long 2s very well. All signs point to him shooting the three well in the NBA just like all signs point to Simmons passing at an elite level for his size (and probably just period). As a non-rivalrous note, I'd also point out that both players look like good rebounders.

 

[Auger34]

You appreciate that embiid can shoot though right?
I love how you guys project Tatum to make a big improvement defensively (despite being slow laterally and stiff) and be a great three point shooter and think he can learn to pass (while not doing it in college).
Projecting all that is fine, but Simmons cannot possibly learn to be an average shooter.

You guys are fun

Do you think Simmons can grow to be a league average shooter? With his form (my god is his free throw shot hideous) and the whole left hand or right hand issue I have serious questions.

I think Tatum can definitely be an average defender and a good 3 point shooter, however, I question if his passing will ever be up to snuff. He seems to think of a pass as a last resort (something he did in college as well)/

 

[Eddie Jurak]

think Tatum can definitely be an average defender and a good 3 point shooter, however, I question if his passing will ever be up to snuff. He seems to think of a pass as a last resort (something he did in college as well)/

I think this is an absurd claim, given the very limited sample it is based on.

 

[bowiac]

I think this is an absurd claim, given the very limited sample it is based on.

Is this any different for Tatum than for any other one-and-done player? Every wart on every guy is subject to that. It seems to me like everyone appreciates we don't have a lot of data for any of these guys, so prefacing every comment with a "this is just a guess based on a tiny sample" seems a bit redundant, no?

 

[mauf]

Is this any different for Tatum than for any other one-and-done player? Every wart on every guy is subject to that. It seems to me like everyone appreciates we don't have a lot of data for any of these guys, so prefacing every comment with a "this is just a guess based on a tiny sample" seems a bit redundant, no?

Absolutely. But some assessments based on limited data are worth more than others, right? For example, I think the reason a lot of folks here are bullish on Tatum is because his excellent FT% at Duke is likely indicative of true ability, and is also probably the best predictor we have of his eventual ability to develop an outside (3-point) shot.

In that connection, I’m curious whether his passing woes (to the extent there is data to support them) are something we would predict to persist. Intuitively, it seems like passing is one of those skills that would take time to assess, since the pro game is so different and most rookies struggle to demonstrate practical understanding of it, but I’m aware that many things about assessing young players are not at all intuitive (to me, at least).

Edit: To the extent you are just saying that Tatum isn’t going to be an elite drive-and-dish guy, I think that’s self-evident.

 

[Auger34]

I think this is an absurd claim, given the very limited sample it is based on.

I don't think I did a great job of explaining my point there.
I am a Duke fan so I've watched Tatum extensively. When he passes, he is a good passer. My question is if he will ever be as willing a passer as he should be. I believe that Brad should be able to coach him up and make him a more willing ball mover but I still do have questions about it.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I don't think I did a great job of explaining my point there.
I am a Duke fan so I've watched Tatum extensively. When he passes, he is a good passer. My question is if he will ever be as willing a passer as he should be. I believe that Brad should be able to coach him up and make him a more willing ball mover but I still do have questions about it.

Brad is unlikely to ask him to ISO score on a regular basis. He will ask him to run the offense, like everyone else. And Tatum is unlikely to ignore him when he does.

 

[nighthob]

I don't think I did a great job of explaining my point there.
I am a Duke fan so I've watched Tatum extensively. When he passes, he is a good passer. My question is if he will ever be as willing a passer as he should be. I believe that Brad should be able to coach him up and make him a more willing ball mover but I still do have questions about it.

If he was stepping into a typical rebuilding situation where his team would be force-feeding him as many minutes as they could, this would absolutely be an issue.

But he's not, he's stepping on to a team with better starting forwards and a lot of competition for minutes. So his playing time is going to be dictated by how well he functions in the system. He'll be fine.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

 

[Eddie Jurak]

As for Fultz... that guy is going to score a lot of points in the NBA. I would not be disappointed to have him on the Celtics. If he has a reliable outside shot, he'll be a nice fit on the Sixers with Simmons.

That free throw stroke is ugly though.

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

As for Fultz... that guy is going to score a lot of points in the NBA. I would not be disappointed to have him on the Celtics. If he has a reliable outside shot, he'll be a nice fit on the Sixers with Simmons.

That free throw stroke is ugly though.

He's gonna get to the paint consistently, his dribbling is too good not too. Also made some nice cross-court passes once he penetrated, should be good for getting their other shooters some good looks.

Didn't take many outside shots at all tonight, don't know if that's because of shoulder soreness, working on his technique, a proclivity to take it to the basket, or what:

Will be interesting to see him and Simmons play together since both derive a good amount of their value with the ball in their hands. Fultz is the more likely option to contribute off-ball if he can figure out how to get open and knock down those shots that Simmons can set up, but that appears to be something he'll have to demonstrate more than he did in tonight's game.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Ok, I have NO idea what is going on with Fultz. This is crazy. He never shot his FT's anything like this in college. Is this kid a total nutcase? Did Ainge get the word on this from Niednagel? Forward to the :30 mark

 

[DJnVa]

Is that 2-handed push shot?

 

[JCizzle]

Is that 2-handed push shot?

I had the same thought. Very ugly whatever it was

 

[Ed Hillel]

Fultz’s injury DNPs have followed brutal shooting games - I do wonder if this kid is feeling the pressure already. Between him and Simmons...yikes.

 

[luckiestman]

Maybe the kid is pulling a practical joke because that FT shooting is very strange.

 

[LondonSox]

I have no idea what the f is going on with the ft shot. He said he's been trying some things and would go back etc but it's getting pretty late to be practicing with utter nonsense like this.

I hope brown gets on this.

I try not to panic about his shot overall as it seems to have been fine and stable so... Yeah. Ft he's always had weird form, he's much better in rhythm. It's a concern. But his handle and penetration is legit.

It is concerning to have two guys who are good at getting to the rim but not elite finishers and bad ft shooters. Wouldn't you just clobber them any time you get beat?

Simmons needs to learn to finish hard in particular.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Watching the game live tonight, it was apparent how easily Fultz gets to the rim. He has a gear that most guys don't have. Both he and Simmons seem to have a strong disinclination to shoot anything outside ten feet, but there's reason to think that is temporary with the former.

I spent the entire night wondering why anyone would go over the top of the pick with either of those two guys. Go under, make them put it up.

Simmons loves to pass and is damn fucking good at it. He too gets to the rim a lot and is already getting the star treatment when he gets there. Guy is going to shoot a lot of free throws this year, so perhaps his ability at the line might improve.

 

[tbrown_01923]

Piling on - I was impressed by fultz and his ability to get to the rim. I was disappointed I didn't get to see him matched up against smart for an extended period of time. I wanted to see if he was crafty enough to get a step on a great defender consistently. Oh well - regular season will tell.

 

[jimv]

Apparently the crazy shooting form is a result of shoulder pain.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/10/10/16452324/markelle-fultz-free-throw-shoulder

 

[DJnVa]

Apparently the crazy shooting form is a result of shoulder pain.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/10/10/16452324/markelle-fultz-free-throw-shoulder

That first GIF--it is a 2 handed push shot.

Hope he gets right, because he's fun to watch.