Markelle Fultz, Year Three: He's back! Big....?

Big John

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Hasn't he had almost a year to rework his shot, etc.? I feel badly for the young man as a person. It appears that he has completely lost his confidence. But as Bosox79 and others have noted, at some point he's going to have to lace 'em up and play some hoops. Each month of delay accellerates his descent into Anthony Bennett bust territory.
 

DannyDarwinism

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The reports of the Sixers shopping Fultz, particularly for a guy like Porter who has pretty serious medical red flags, have to make you wonder what their level of confidence in him is at this point.

 

Cesar Crespo

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Who has more trade value? Rozier or Fultz?

On another note, would anyone move Robert Williams for Fultz? I'd guess anyone who said no is in full binkie mode, but then again in a couple months they could just as easily be right.
 

Sam Ray Not

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I wouldn't trade Jacob Evans for Fultz, but that's because I too am in full binkie mode.

An interesting question is if London Sox would (hypothetically) trade Zhaire Smith for Fultz.
 

BigSoxFan

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Are we factoring in contracts? At $8.3M next year and $9.7M the following year, Fultz isn't exactly cheap. I'm most certainly in Robert Williams binkie mode but I wouldn't want to trade Williams and the salary necessary (Morris/Yabu) to make a Fultz deal work.
 

snowmanny

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The problem with valuing Fultz is that if he has "yips" his range of outcomes looks nothing like a bell curve. Porter is like that too, but less so. There is a reasonable chance Fultz is very good and even maybe an All-Star, there is a reasonable chance he never starts a game; I'd argue there's not 50% in-between those outcomes.

As for whether the Sixers "broke him," who knows? What broke Rick Ankiel between the second and third innings of the 2000NLDS?
 

lovegtm

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Who has more trade value? Rozier or Fultz?

On another note, would anyone move Robert Williams for Fultz? I'd guess anyone who said no is in full binkie mode, but then again in a couple months they could just as easily be right.
It depends on the team. A championship contender or team that wants to make playoff noise should take Rozier, and anyone early in the rebuilding cycle should clearly take Fultz imo. Sometimes you can overthink these things.

Williams for Fultz is trickier, since Williams is also extremely high-upside with question marks. Williams has a clear (if far from certain or even probable) path to becoming DeAndre Jordan with FT shooting, which I'd say is more valuable for the Celtics than the chance that Fultz hits his top-end, because the Cs have so much scoring.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Are we factoring in contracts? At $8.3M next year and $9.7M the following year, Fultz isn't exactly cheap. I'm most certainly in Robert Williams binkie mode but I wouldn't want to trade Williams and the salary necessary (Morris/Yabu) to make a Fultz deal work.
As is. So yeah, factoring in contracts and everything else.

Would it change your answer if you could trade the 2 straight up?
 

BigSoxFan

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As is. So yeah, factoring in contracts and everything else.

Would it change your answer if you could trade the 2 straight up?
I may look really dumb in a few months but I'd still probably say no here (although it's definitely a lot closer if contracts are excluded). It's going to take some really dramatic improvement from Fultz to be a useful player and I remain bearish on him getting there in the short term.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Who has more trade value? Rozier or Fultz?

On another note, would anyone move Robert Williams for Fultz? I'd guess anyone who said no is in full binkie mode, but then again in a couple months they could just as easily be right.
I don't think saying no is about binkie only that Williams has the potential to fill a nice role over the next couple years while Fultz, even if he was better, would be behind 4 other guards.

If we were a rebuilding team it's an easy Fultz, and I'm not on the Fultz recovery train either, but this particular team is drafting and adding pieces to fill roles to complement our scorers.

No sane person would choose Fultz over Rozier imo.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't think saying no is about binkie only that Williams has the potential to fill a nice role over the next couple years while Fultz, even if he was better, would be behind 4 other guards.

If we were a rebuilding team it's an easy Fultz, and I'm not on the Fultz recovery train either, but this particular team is drafting and adding pieces to fill roles to complement our scorers.

No sane person would choose Fultz over Rozier imo.
Well, it's right after the draft so it is prime binkie season. I don't think it's all about the binkie, though. Right now is the honeymoon period for Williams so I'm sure it plays some part. I mean, I'm not even sure what I would do if offered the deal straight up (ignoring the salary cap rules). It's a special case.

And I mentioned Fultz over Rozier because I thought maybe someone would bite on 3 years vs 1.
 

LondonSox

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The reports of the Sixers shopping Fultz, particularly for a guy like Porter who has pretty serious medical red flags, have to make you wonder what their level of confidence in him is at this point.

This shit passes no smell test, this guy claimed this was to move up to draft porter. Who... They passed on at 10. So no.

I wouldn't trade Jacob Evans for Fultz, but that's because I too am in full binkie mode.

An interesting question is if London Sox would (hypothetically) trade Zhaire Smith for Fultz.
Fultz for me. I think the videos and info from hanlen coming out are encouraging, and for whatever reason everyone is determined to ignore.

He's already moving Fultz further out and extending range and the very few clips we have seen has no hitch. It's not perfect but it looks like it's fine.
We haven't seen any FT stuff and his form there was always yuck, but so different from his shooting form in game even in HS and college

Fultz was number 1 in a good draft for a reason, if he's what he can be his ceiling is higher than zhaire. I'm a little optimistic vs the 50/50 he broken for ever. And zhaire's ceiling is far from a given too.
 

DannyDarwinism

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This shit passes no smell test, this guy claimed this was to move up to draft porter. Who... They passed on at 10. So no.
.
Regarding the Porter trade specifically, perhaps. But as to the reports that the Sixers have made it known he’s available, Pompey seems pretty plugged in, and he’s citing “multiple league sources”, so there’s some smoke there.
 

mauf

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Regarding the Porter trade specifically, perhaps. But as to the reports that the Sixers have made it known he’s available, Pompey seems pretty plugged in, and he’s citing “multiple league sources”, so there’s some smoke there.
No one on the Sixers roster is untouchable except Embiid, and maybe Simmons. Of course Fultz has been discussed with other teams. Pompey needs something more specific than that to claim he’s got a scoop.
 

HomeRunBaker

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No one on the Sixers roster is untouchable except Embiid, and maybe Simmons. Of course Fultz has been discussed with other teams. Pompey needs something more specific than that to claim he’s got a scoop.
We are in the age of clickbait and retweets. The Pompey report resembles something a Celtics writer would leak as a "scoop" that Ainge is on the phones looking to move up in the draft. Well yeah no sh*t sherlock.
 

Reverend

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I have literally no opinion on Fultz given the information I feel I have.

If you asked ME if I would trade BobWill for him? No.

Now, if you told me that Danny and Brad think they can make him work? I'll drive him to the NB complex.

I just have no idea what's going on with the kid. I have to imagine any move involving him involves wildly imperfect information of which we only a little, so it's a fraction of a fraction.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Don’t really want Fultz under any circumstance for a myriad of reasons. Clearly something with his personality type wouldn’t fit in in Boston, and the risk that he’s broken forever is too great for me.

I mean if you asked me pre-draft would I trade 27 for him it’s a clear no. He is too expensive to rot on the bench behind Kyrie smart and Rozier, and he would likely push Boston into the tax a year early which is something they are clearly avoiding.
 

the moops

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I mean if you asked me pre-draft would I trade 27 for him it’s a clear no. He is too expensive to rot on the bench behind Kyrie smart and Rozier, and he would likely push Boston into the tax a year early which is something they are clearly avoiding.
In this scenario, BOS would never resign Smart if they had Fultz for # 27, so there would be no tax concerns
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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So now I’m trading 27 and Smart for Fultz?
No in this made-up scenario, assume Smart goes somewhere else.

If Smart goes somewhere else, then I'd probably do it as the Cs would need a second back-up PG (even if he couldn't shoot) more than RWill and is some protection if Rozier leaves as well.

If the Cs resign Smart, then hard pass not because Fultz couldn't turn out great but I don't see him getting the minutes he needs to develop.

The teams that really should look into getting Fultz at a discount are teams like WAS and TOR and MIL (and maybe PDX depending on what other deals they could do around that) who aren't talented enough to win but don't have cap space or draft picks to improve. They literally have nothing to lose if Fultz turns out to be a bust (other than a few games in the standings, which might not be such a bad thing) but have everything to gain (even if it is a longshot).
 

southshoresoxfan

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No in this made-up scenario, assume Smart goes somewhere else.

If Smart goes somewhere else, then I'd probably do it as the Cs would need a second back-up PG (even if he couldn't shoot) more than RWill and is some protection if Rozier leaves as well.

If the Cs resign Smart, then hard pass not because Fultz couldn't turn out great but I don't see him getting the minutes he needs to develop.

The teams that really should look into getting Fultz at a discount are teams like WAS and TOR and MIL (and maybe PDX depending on what other deals they could do around that) who aren't talented enough to win but don't have cap space or draft picks to improve. They literally have nothing to lose if Fultz turns out to be a bust (other than a few games in the standings, which might not be such a bad thing) but have everything to gain (even if it is a longshot).
I understand he wouldn’t be in the trade. But I’d MICH rather have the 27 pick and Marcus Smart then Fultz and it’s not that close.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I have no interest in Fultz because of the mental hurdles he has to clear. But let's not forget what his upside is. William's upside can be good, but limited. Fultz's upside is elite quickness/speed in a large PG frame with the potential to be a very good 3 point shooter, distributor, slasher. I mean, he has franchise cornerstone potential with his ability at both ends of the court.

The kids flameout rate scares me away, but people are forgetting why he was so valued coming out of the draft last season.
 

southshoresoxfan

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I have no interest in Fultz because of the mental hurdles he has to clear. But let's not forget what his upside is. William's upside can be good, but limited. Fultz's upside is elite quickness/speed in a large PG frame with the potential to be a very good 3 point shooter, distributor, slasher. I mean, he has franchise cornerstone potential with his ability at both ends of the court.

The kids flameout rate scares me away, but people are forgetting why he was so valued coming out of the draft last season.
It’s just not worth losing a player off your roster plus Williams for Fultz. And that’s the trickle down effect due to Fultzs enhanced salary.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It’s just not worth losing a player off your roster plus Williams for Fultz. And that’s the trickle down effect due to Fultzs enhanced salary.
I think the question assumes that Smart signs somewhere else first. So would you do RWill plus filler for Fultz after that point?

Obviously, PHI would never do that but we're all bored here waiting for the Cs to go 81-1 next year.
 

LondonSox

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Regarding the Porter trade specifically, perhaps. But as to the reports that the Sixers have made it known he’s available, Pompey seems pretty plugged in, and he’s citing “multiple league sources”, so there’s some smoke there.
Pompey is utter trash. He's the guy who leaks the maybe we should keep colangelo stuff etc. He's scum.

Don’t really want Fultz under any circumstance for a myriad of reasons. Clearly something with his personality type wouldn’t fit in in Boston, and the risk that he’s broken forever is too great for me.

I mean if you asked me pre-draft would I trade 27 for him it’s a clear no. He is too expensive to rot on the bench behind Kyrie smart and Rozier, and he would likely push Boston into the tax a year early which is something they are clearly avoiding.
"Clearly" okay.

I mean I don't care if you want to debate hypotheticals but clearly something in his personality... Just stop. You have no idea.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Pompey is utter trash. He's the guy who leaks the maybe we should keep colangelo stuff etc. He's scum.



"Clearly" okay.

I mean I don't care if you want to debate hypotheticals but clearly something in his personality... Just stop. You have no idea.
No, I think we do. He’s clearly not the type of guy Ainge Targets. Doesn’t mean he won’t be good, but culturally he’s not a fit.

Also the fact he’s a worse shooter than Smart is a huge red flag for me.
 

LondonSox

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No, I think we do. He’s clearly not the type of guy Ainge Targets. Doesn’t mean he won’t be good, but culturally he’s not a fit.

Also the fact he’s a worse shooter than Smart is a huge red flag for me.
Based on his yips I assume this is?
I also think people who get depression are mentally weak and don't belong on my team. So I get it.
 

slamminsammya

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No, I think we do. He’s clearly not the type of guy Ainge Targets. Doesn’t mean he won’t be good, but culturally he’s not a fit.

Also the fact he’s a worse shooter than Smart is a huge red flag for me.
I feel like theres an assumption here that the trade down was because Ainge didnt like Fultz. But it really just reflects the perceived difference between Fultz and Tatum. Maybe he just liked Tatum that much.

So I don't think its "clear".
 

The Needler

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At this point, I would discount the possibility that he can become a "very good 3 point shooter." He was a horrible free throw shooter in college, and still was this year. His entire career consists of two years of varsity HS ball and one year at UW. He took a total of 126 college threes, and shot 38% from 3 in PAC-12 play along with poor FT shooting. Based on the Andrew Johnson models he was projected as a 34-35% 3-pt shooter in the league, and that was before his issues. I'd consider that as his somewhat unlikely upside at this point, and league-wide 3FG% was 36.2% this year.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I feel like theres an assumption here that the trade down was because Ainge didnt like Fultz. But it really just reflects the perceived difference between Fultz and Tatum. Maybe he just liked Tatum that much.

So I don't think its "clear".
I don't really agree with this line of thought. From Day One when we won the top pick in that draft Ainge never mentioned Fultz by name only saying how "we'll see" and "there are several great young prospects", etc etc. He could have done nothing but tout all of Fultz' strengths and STILL have drafted Tatum or traded down for him. Even followijg his workout with the Celtics Fultz immediately scheduled workouts with other teams which doesn't happen unless his camp knew Boston was not drafting him......and they certainly aren't going to share this info but I'm sure the Fultz camp quickly figured out something wasn't right.
 

lovegtm

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I don't really agree with this line of thought. From Day One when we won the top pick in that draft Ainge never mentioned Fultz by name only saying how "we'll see" and "there are several great young prospects", etc etc. He could have done nothing but tout all of Fultz' strengths and STILL have drafted Tatum or traded down for him. Even followijg his workout with the Celtics Fultz immediately scheduled workouts with other teams which doesn't happen unless his camp knew Boston was not drafting him......and they certainly aren't going to share this info but I'm sure the Fultz camp quickly figured out something wasn't right.
I agree with everything you're saying, but it's weird to me that Ainge would show his hand like that. The threat that he'd draft Fultz was the only thing that made Colangelo trade up. I understand not giving a #1 promise to Fultz, but why not show interest to increase the trade price.

Obviously it all worked out, and Danny is clearly much, much better at that game than I am. Just curious why he played it like that.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Based on his yips I assume this is?
I also think people who get depression are mentally weak and don't belong on my team. So I get it.
You are the most defensive poster I’ve ever seen. Would you say Fultz has the dog mentality that Ainge clearly values? Nothing to do with depression or yips.

He seems soft. Period.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I agree with everything you're saying, but it's weird to me that Ainge would show his hand like that. The threat that he'd draft Fultz was the only thing that made Colangelo trade up. I understand not giving a #1 promise to Fultz, but why not show interest to increase the trade price.

Obviously it all worked out, and Danny is clearly much, much better at that game than I am. Just curious why he played it like that.
Other teams could have been trying to trade up to #1 outside of Philly. Ainge doesn't have to show interest in Fultz as long as 2 GMs are.
 

DavidTai

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I agree with everything you're saying, but it's weird to me that Ainge would show his hand like that. The threat that he'd draft Fultz was the only thing that made Colangelo trade up. I understand not giving a #1 promise to Fultz, but why not show interest to increase the trade price.

Obviously it all worked out, and Danny is clearly much, much better at that game than I am. Just curious why he played it like that.
By threatening to go elsewhere with his pick, he gave LA a shot at picking up Fultz, forcing Philadelphia to either trade up to get their man or get stuck with Ball.

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2017/6/18/15826386/lakers-markelle-fultz-lonzo-ball-2017-nba-draft
 

LondonSox

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You are the most defensive poster I’ve ever seen. Would you say Fultz has the dog mentality that Ainge clearly values? Nothing to do with depression or yips.

He seems soft. Period.
You just said a 19 year old kid is too mentally weak for your team, knowing literally nothing about him after constantly attacking him for a year
I'm defensive because
a) you attack constantly
b) i'm alone and you have an army of "yeah what my bro said"

But I'd also call you out on any other scenario where you assign mental weakness to a 19 year old kid you know nothing about.
It's sad, it's pathetic and your need to belittle a kid who did nothing wrong is lamentable.

"the dog mentality" just do me a favour.
 

Cesar Crespo

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There's no way Philly would have went with Ball anyway with Simmons on the team. They probably would have went with Josh Jackson and Ball would have fell to the Suns.
 

snowmanny

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Based on his yips I assume this is?
I also think people who get depression are mentally weak and don't belong on my team. So I get it.
I don’t think that’s what this particular poster was saying, but you do hear that sort of crap and it is a stupid take. Lots of folks on this site said that about Greinke, while I was thinking that overcoming depression and panic and performed by at that level just shows he’s tough.
 

LondonSox

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I don’t think that’s what this particular poster was saying, but you do hear that sort of crap and it is a stupid take. Lots of folks on this site said that about Greinke, while I was thinking that overcoming depression and panic and performed by at that level just shows he’s tough.
Indeed. I really getting bored of the mental illness is weakness bullshit. It's ignorant, wrong, offensive and to pile on top that "his" guys aren't in danger of mental health issues because they are tougher. It just really annoys me.
 

mauf

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You just said a 19 year old kid is too mentally weak for your team, knowing literally nothing about him after constantly attacking him for a year
I'm defensive because
a) you attack constantly
b) i'm alone and you have an army of "yeah what my bro said"

But I'd also call you out on any other scenario where you assign mental weakness to a 19 year old kid you know nothing about.
It's sad, it's pathetic and your need to belittle a kid who did nothing wrong is lamentable.

"the dog mentality" just do me a favour.
I’d be right with you if Fultz’s condition was similar to, say, what Zack Greinke faced early in his professional career. Diseases of the brain shouldn’t be stigmatized, and we should celebrate the progress we’ve made in treating them.

But this isn’t that. We don’t know what’s ailing Fultz. I haven’t seen anything suggesting he has a diagnosable mental illness. He had a minor shoulder injury that should’ve healed months ago. Somd gross person in the Colangelo family suggested he might have had some family drama; ymmv if you credit that account or think it’s probative — I tend to think it has fuck-all to do with Fultz’s shot escaping him.

Saying he has the “yips” is imprecise, but there doesn’t seem to be a better way to describe it. And anecdotally, it seems that a fair number of people with the yips never get over it.

I agree that it’s lame to describe it as mental weakness, or to say with no evidence whatsoever that it’s harder to overcome the yips in Boston than in, say, Memphis. But if he doesn’t figure it out, he should be able to take his millions, finish his education, and lead a normal life. It’s not at all comparable to a bona fide mental illness.
 

LondonSox

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I’d be right with you if Fultz’s condition was similar to, say, what Zack Greinke faced early in his professional career. Diseases of the brain shouldn’t be stigmatized, and we should celebrate the progress we’ve made in treating them.

But this isn’t that. We don’t know what’s ailing Fultz. I haven’t seen anything suggesting he has a diagnosable mental illness. He had a minor shoulder injury that should’ve healed months ago. Somd gross person in the Colangelo family suggested he might have had some family drama; ymmv if you credit that account or think it’s probative — I tend to think it has fuck-all to do with Fultz’s shot escaping him.

Saying he has the “yips” is imprecise, but there doesn’t seem to be a better way to describe it. And anecdotally, it seems that a fair number of people with the yips never get over it.

I agree that it’s lame to describe it as mental weakness, or to say with no evidence whatsoever that it’s harder to overcome the yips in Boston than in, say, Memphis. But if he doesn’t figure it out, he should be able to take his millions, finish his education, and lead a normal life. It’s not at all comparable to a bona fide mental illness.
Well if it's not a mental illness issue then what's the excuse for calling him mentally weak then?
 

benhogan

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FYI: Having the yips doesn't really have to mean you're mentally weak. Bernard Langer is a steely/mentally tough golfer that had to go to a long putter after he developed the yips. It probably has more to do with the fine motor skills in his hands.

I took SouthShore was implying that Fultz "personality type" was soft and passive. And Danny wants to draft hyper-aggressive/competitive (see Smart/Rozier) alpha males (dogs).

Fultz will forever be a lightning rod, along w/Tatum, for Celtics and Sixers fans. Just the way it is, hopefully, it doesn't get personal and both fans can weigh in with opinions.
 

LondonSox

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Where did he write "mentally weak"? Who brought up mental illness? Who was stigmatizing it?

C'mon man.
You know what I re read it and you're right.
It's implied and I said it back but he never said if agreed or disagreed with that. Based on my own self confirmation and based on past conversations I just ran with my own assumption.
I still think it's what he was getting at, that his personality is linked to his yips (read confidence) which has been said many times.

However, this time it doesn't say that I just assumed it was and picked a fight because I was in a pissy posting mood for other reasons.

So i appologize.

I get very frustrated about people implying that his issues are due to mental weakness without any such evidence. And all these comments about his personality as if that caused it. That his character even caused this and more that Ainge could tell he was weak. And again imply this perceptible weakness was the cause of this issue.
In short I need to talk less about it I guess !
 

Eddie Jurak

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Whatever his issues are or aren't, I think he's at least looking at a floor of "poor man's Ben Simmons". The bad shooting and strange rookie year overshadow a ton of talent. He needs to improve to become a legitimate fit on the Sixers, who don't have much use for a poor man's Ben Simmons with the original already on board, but if I were a well-managed team in a rebuilding phase I'd absolutely go after him.
 

the moops

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Whatever his issues are or aren't, I think he's at least looking at a floor of "poor man's Ben Simmons". The bad shooting and strange rookie year overshadow a ton of talent. He needs to improve to become a legitimate fit on the Sixers, who don't have much use for a poor man's Ben Simmons with the original already on board, but if I were a well-managed team in a rebuilding phase I'd absolutely go after him.
I don't know. Ben Simmons has never been able to shoot, so his entire game has evolved around that fact. Have to imagine it is a far more difficult path to not take jumpers anymore when that was a staple of your game for so long.
 

Jimbodandy

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I think that anyone writing off a 20yo is out of their mind. The kid has some things to work out. Given what we have learned about Colangelo in the last few weeks, I think that it's fair to hope that Fultz might benefit some from a fresh perspective coming from the player personnel folks. A year of soaking up the NBA atmosphere, a year of separation from being "the #1 pick"--maybe some of the pressure is off. Maybe it's a simple as adjusting to his new and improved shoulder and getting his mechanics right. Sometimes a pitcher sees amazing results on the mound from the smallest tweak in release point.

We learned more about his floor than we did his ceiling, IMO.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Well if it's not a mental illness issue then what's the excuse for calling him mentally weak then?
To chime in.....

I don't know if "mentally weak" is the proper term but there was more going on with this kid at Washington with his mysterious knee injury. I documented the exact timeline at the time (don't recall specifically now).....Fultz played 36 min one night and finished game without apparent injury, Then he missed a couple games with a "sore knee." Ok that happens.....now he returns and removes himself from game, goes to locker room and everyone assumes he's done. Then he returns to bench w trainer, cleared to go, is inserted in game that is a blowout, and leaves again. That is how his college career ended. No limp, no wincing, medically cleared, and walked off himself twice.

I'm not pointing the finger but I watched these games and was baffled at the time at what was going on for the perceived #1 pick in the upcoming draft for be yanked around like that and keep pulling himself. It was weird and looking back it doesn't appear that it was nothing. I have no idea of "what" it was but it should be included into the storyline of this bizarre start to his career.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Canton MA
I was referring to his on court personality type. I don’t know anything else about the kid except he didn’t shoot all that well in college, his team wasn’t good, Celtics had him in for a workout and immediately pivoted off of him to Tatum.

He’s not an Ainge type for a lot of reasons, the alpha/bulldog personality type being one of them, the other being he wasn’t a highly sought after high school recruit. Ainge values the HS ranking as much as one year in college.