Let's Talk About Matt Kemp.

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Minneapolis Millers

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Well, I could see a team thinking that Nava is more "established" than Carp given what he did in essentially a full season, but I think it would be somewhat silly.  They've had roughly the same amount of MLB exposure.
 
I don't think either guy would bring back a "B+" prospect.  JBJ is a B+ prospect.  Would you give up JBJ for Nava??  Maybe you can get a guy like Barnes coming off a disappointing year, but I highly doubt they'd get a top 5 prospect out of a good farm system.
 

bd11

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Tyrone Biggums said:
Seeing the recent contracts that have been signed I'm actually feeling Kemp might be a bargain compared to the "field". If he is healthy give the Dodgers a package with Dempster and a few other small pieces. Take on the contract in that case and move along. The lineup would be pretty stacked (again if healthy) 
 
RF- Victorino 
2B- Pedroia
LF- Kemp 
DH-Papi
1B- Napoli  
SS- Xander
C  - AJP
3B- WMB
CF- JBJ/Nava (platoon)
 
Putting Nava in CF is a stretch but he could be a roving OF that could get a start 4 times a week with giving the starters a night off. I'm not necessarily advocating acquiring Kemp but I'm warming up to it more than say Shin Soo Choo. 
Nava has worked hard to become an adequate left fielder.  Under no circumstances should he play any significant time in center.
 

pokey_reese

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Now, I think that we can all agree that coming off a bad ankle injury Kemp is unlikely to improve his OF defense, but until now he has basically been a 0 run to -5 run OF for his career, and in the past had pretty decent speed.
 
I think that if we traded for Kemp AND wanted to platoon JBJ, the best option is for Kemp to play RF some of the time to keep hiding Gomes/Nava in LF, and also to keep in mind that Kemp has been good from both sides of the plate, but still has pretty strong platoon splits (.795/.976 career).  Plus, between Victorino and Kemp having injuries and JBJ breaking into the league, chances are good that there will be enough ABs to go around if you do it like this:
 
vs LHP
LF - Gomes
CF - Victorino
RF - Kemp
 
vs RHP
LF - Nava
CF - JBJ
RF - Kemp/Victorino
 
That said, I am not sure that we want to platoon JBJ.  I would almost rather just let him get his ABs against same-handed pitching to prevent turning him into a platoon player for life, though I think that the above division of labor probably maximizes performance for 2014.
 

Drek717

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
Why would teams evaluate trade targets based on how much playing time they got the previous year? How is that relevant to the acquiring team?
Because Carp might just be a small sample size mirage.  Nava put his numbers up as effectively a full time player last year.  That carries quite a bit of weight.
 

TOleary25

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Drek717 said:
Because Carp might just be a small sample size mirage.  Nava put his numbers up as effectively a full time player last year.  That carries quite a bit of weight.
 
Sure it carries some weight but Carp has 851 career plate appearances so it's not really that small of a sample size. Nava only has 190 more PA's but has less career HR's than Carp. With such an emphasis on teams looking for power this offseason, I think the Sox would likely get more for Carp. But there is a possibility some teams value Nava's position flexibility more than Carp's power potential. 
 

MakMan44

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soxhop411 said:
Uh…..
JIM BOWDEN ‏@JimBowdenESPNxm2m
Ned Colletti told us Matt Kemp leg is still in a boot and they are not expecting him to be 100% by Spring Training SXM
So, we get him for like 10 MM per season for a package headlined by a prospect outside our top 30? I'm in!
 
Seriously though, if that's true I can't imagine the Dodgers getting a good return for Kemp and at that point, why even bother?
 

Drek717

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TOleary25 said:
 
Sure it carries some weight but Carp has 851 career plate appearances so it's not really that small of a sample size. Nava only has 190 more PA's but has less career HR's than Carp. With such an emphasis on teams looking for power this offseason, I think the Sox would likely get more for Carp. But there is a possibility some teams value Nava's position flexibility more than Carp's power potential. 
And Carp's ABs are all over the map, solid in 2011, horrible in 2012, good in 2013 in a small sample with a big BABIP.  Meanwhile Nava has shown steady upward progression directly tied to improving K rates, and last year he had a big season as a regular while Carp's big return season came as a part timer with far fewer ABs.
 
Nava is less likely to turn back into a pumpkin than Carp, going strictly by sample sizes and previous career performance.  That favors Nava pretty significantly.  Carp's biggest pro over Nava is power.  That might tip the odds in his favor as power is getting scarce (relative to the last two decades) and that might make teams wiling to overpay for it, but that's the pro Carp hook while pretty much everything else favors Nava.
 

radsoxfan

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Clears Cleaver said:
Will Carroll tweeted that teams interested in Kemp are dropping out after reviewing medicals
 
 
I'm really surprised teams aren't lining up to pay 100M+ to a guy with a shredded labrum, a large cartilage defect in his ankle, and who sucked at the plate last year. 
 

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Drek717 said:
And Carp's ABs are all over the map, solid in 2011, horrible in 2012, good in 2013 in a small sample with a big BABIP.  Meanwhile Nava has shown steady upward progression directly tied to improving K rates, and last year he had a big season as a regular while Carp's big return season came as a part timer with far fewer ABs.
 
Nava is less likely to turn back into a pumpkin than Carp, going strictly by sample sizes and previous career performance.  That favors Nava pretty significantly.  Carp's biggest pro over Nava is power.  That might tip the odds in his favor as power is getting scarce (relative to the last two decades) and that might make teams wiling to overpay for it, but that's the pro Carp hook while pretty much everything else favors Nava.
Aside from his power, Carp is younger than Nava, and fwiw has a better pedigree as a prospect. Carp was injured in 2012, so it seems churlish to use that as a reason to call him "all over the map." Both of them have excellent 2013 LD%, along with the usual BABIP suspects like Napoli and Saltalamacchia. Both of them are also among the 2013 team leaders in plate discipline, resistant to swinging at pitches outside the zone. Nava is clearly a better outfielder, only somewhat below major-league average, while Carp has a longer track record at first base, also somewhat below average. Carp is an awful outfielder, and Nava's very short track record at first base isn't much better.
 
Fortunately, it seems likely that both of them will be back in 2014, because their flexibility and price tags fit the team's needs. Neither one of them has much trade value, except perhaps as a throw-in in a larger package deal.
 

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Those of you preferring Rajai Davis over Kemp as a solution for our OF, scratch him off your list.  2 years/$10M to Detroit.
 

jimbobim

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Gammons on MLB Network said the Red Sox would probably need to see him  in spring training or at the beginning of the season to see what Matt Kemp they would be trading for. Sherman said Choo might land Carl Crawford money from AZ or Texas. 
 
Cespedes, Brown, seem to be the young power hitting  controllable OF available. 
 

jimbobim

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I think there's a significant drop in value after X JBJ Doubrount young player wise. Anyone else im willing to listen seriously on. 
 

jimbobim

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I think the Sox might be a long shot, but a Kemp trade to someone seems inevitable. Will Carroll now saying Cruz wants 100 mill which may or may not effect Kemp's market. 
 

rembrat

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jimbobim said:
 
Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi9m
Kemp-Detroit scenario is complicated and probably unlikely, because with Davis in the fold Tigers would need to move Jackson.
 
Hmmmmm....
 
 
Worst case scenario, Jackie Bradley can strike out once a game with a mid .700 OPS. Why would we want that from the right side too?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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jimbobim said:
I think the Sox might be a long shot, but a Kemp trade to someone seems inevitable. Will Carroll now saying Cruz wants 100 mill which may or may not effect Kemp's market. 
 
I don't think Cruz wanting 100 mil will affect Kemp's market, since there's not a bat's chance in hell he'll get it.
 

Lowrielicious

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jimbobim said:
Gammons on MLB Network said the Red Sox would probably need to see him  in spring training or at the beginning of the season to see what Matt Kemp they would be trading for. Sherman said Choo might land Carl Crawford money from AZ or Texas. 
 
Cespedes, Brown, seem to be the young power hitting  controllable OF available. 
 
They won't be seeing much in spring training :
 
The Dodgers are not expecting Matt Kemp's surgically repaired ankle to be fully healed before spring training, according to Jim Bowden. Bowden had Dodgers' GM Ned Colletti as a guest on his radio show and Colletti said that Kemp's leg is still in a boot. Kemp had surgery on his ankle on October 21 and it appears his rehabilitation is going slowly.
 
I was initially interested in the Kemp idea, but I am increasingly turned off the more I look into it. There is no way they will eat enough cash to make up for the risk we would be assuming given Kemps recent injury history.
 

MakMan44

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Doesn't mean much but I trust the FO's opinion. If they passed, they had good reason to.
 

Nomars Last Twitch

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It was reported elsewhere that the Red Sox are very near the $189 M luxury tax line. And their most tradeable/expensive ML assets are pitchers (Dempster, Lackey), especially with Owens et al on the brink of the Show.
 
It stands to reason that the front office would like to dump salary in a pitching trade before taking on Kemps' salary, but they can't do that now with so many pitchers made available in trade (Price, Homer Baily, Cliff Lee, etc). And they can't make a direct pitching-for-hitting trade with the Dodgers, because LA's needs are all positional or prospect-related.
 
If a Kemp-to-Sox trade happens, it happens after the market has settled down (so that the Sox get a decent return for their pitching), but before spring training (Dodgers won't want Kemp related drama to affect their camp).
 

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ItOnceWasMyLife said:
That's a relief
 
Copy that.
 
Bradley-Victorino-Gnomes is a fine outfield -- not as formidable as 2013 with Ellsbury on the basepaths, but better than average and very reasonably priced. The team could use a flexible fifth outfielder stashed in Pawtucket, since Mike Carp really belongs at 1B or DH, and stinks up the joint in LF.
 

kazuneko

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jimbobim said:
 
Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi9m
Kemp-Detroit scenario is complicated and probably unlikely, because with Davis in the fold Tigers would need to move Jackson.
 
Hmmmmm....
 
 
 
I don't think Morosi understands the Tigers roster. The very reason siging Davis made sense was it allows the Tigers to sit Jackson against LHP ( minimizing the negative effect of Jackson's main weakness as a player and greatly improving their CF production). Detroit trading for Kemp would have no impact on the Jackson/Davis platoon in CF. Kemp would simply knock the inept Andy Dirks out of a job in LF.
 

JimD

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So glad the Sox will not be returning the favor for the Punto trade and saving the Dodgers from this contract.  Kemp in his current condition is the kind of player you try to sign for a make-good deal at favorable terms.  Add in the fact that LA wants premium prospects in exchange for any salary subsidization and this trade just makes no sense for Boston. 
 

JimD

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Ben has been pretty up front lately about being in 'opportunistic mode' - I don't think they are necessarily looking to upgrade the outfield as much as to kick the tires on various options and, if an improvement opportunity presents itself, to be ready to take part of any acquisition discussions that do arise. Alex Speier has noted recently that the Sox brass are still pretty high on JBJ, but see his future as being much brighter than what they may get from him in 2014. 
 

drbretto

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I agree with JimD. Basically without any upgrades, the offense is more than likely not as good as it is with Ellsbury in it (obviously). There's enough payroll flexibility and enough minor league talent to kick the tires on a potential upgrade if the price is right. They can still compete as-is and can afford to hold off as long as they want until the price comes down enough or just stand pat. 100% in the driver's seat.

This deal looks dead as-is right now, but there's still the chance that no one else pulls the trigger before spring training and the sox can still offer LAD the best possible package without breaking the bank. With Choo likely costing more than he is worth to the team, I would think they're still listening at least.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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Devizier

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kazuneko said:
I don't think Morosi understands the Tigers roster. The very reason siging Davis made sense was it allows the Tigers to sit Jackson against LHP ( minimizing the negative effect of Jackson's main weakness as a player and greatly improving their CF production). Detroit trading for Kemp would have no impact on the Jackson/Davis platoon in CF. Kemp would simply knock the inept Andy Dirks out of a job in LF.
 
Is that so? I thought the Tigers were planning to platoon Dirks and Davis.
 
Either way, they could just move the platoon over, as you suggested.
 

TheoShmeo

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My guess is that the Dodgers have no plans to move Kemp right now because the uncertainty around his health has resulted in only low ball offers and expressions about possible interest if and when his health situation is clarified. 
 
While they will likely not trade him during the winter, the recent statements don't at all mean that Kemp wont be dealt during ST or before the July 31 trade deadline.
 
And the Sox can sit and wait, see how the starting pitching market develops and potentially include one of the "excess" starters in a Kemp deal later on.
 
Not that I'm rooting for (or against) this scenario.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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JimD said:
 
That sounds more like wishful thinking from a Dodgers exec than what we've seen so far from the Cherington front office. 
 
Really .. can't really see the FO making a panic move just because a player has a lousy spring. And before anyone comments that they did that last year with Bradley after he had had a great spring - that was due to Ortiz's injury.
 

jimbobim

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If Kemp doesn't look like the shell or the cripple the reports have made him out to be I'd keep an eye on him. Just a very nice bat IF he gets healthy.  
 

Otis Foster

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joe dokes said:
Globie Gasper Thinks Sox too Fat and Happy; Should get Kemp NOW NOW NOW
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/12/13/red-sox-doing-too-little-this-offseason/fVL7N4wtue78ivfwgY8cNN/comments.html
 
(I put it here due to Kemp angle).
 
 
One of the dumber comments to come from that swamp recently. It boils down to: Everyone else is swapping pieces like kids trading baseball cards, so you better jump in while there's something to get. To be charitable, Gasper is just churning out debris on a slow news day. To be less charitable, Gasper has literally no grasp of BC's philosophy.
 
This isn't a game of musical chairs.
 

The Boomer

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This fits as well in this OF discussion as anywhere.  Toolsy Sox former draftees Ryan Kalish and Brandon Jacobs have new homes.  Kalish went with Theo and the Cubs while Jacobs was a PTBNL to the Diamondbacks in that recent Trumbo trade.
 
Meanwhile Cherington patiently waits without any sign of panic to bolster the team's depth  when the right opportunity presents itself.  Since most of their recent acquisitions had a certain element of surprise with almost no leaks about his activities, their final few additions ought to show up when we least expect it.
 

Nomars Last Twitch

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GLENDALE, Ariz. -- Matt Kemp's effortless power swing is back. He increased his baseball activity on Friday's first full-squad workout, taking ground balls off the bat of first-base coach Davey Lopes and moving around like a healthy ballplayer. Then he matched every one of Yasiel Puig's moonshots with the swing that's been missing during two seasons of shoulder problems. Those seem to be over, based on the unrestricted follow-through of every swing.
 
Kemp still isn't running outdoors on his surgically repaired knee and either doesn't know, or won't say, when that day will come. But he did make clear how he felt about being a backup to Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier or Puig.
 
"I'm not a fourth outfielder. Cut that off right now," he said. "I'm not going to be a fourth outfielder. I'm here to help my team win and play every day. When the time comes to come back, I'll come back and be the same player I was when I was healthy. All of us feel the same way. We want to play every day. I won't accept that role. I can't accept that role."
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/02/14/matt-kemp-im-not-a-fourth-outfielder/
 
 
 
Is Matt Kemp trying to force the Dodgers to trade him? His shoulder seems like it's finally healthy. But how long will it take until he can run unrestricted? And will the Red Sox make a move to acquire him when he can?
 

Rasputin

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Nomars Last Twitch said:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/02/14/matt-kemp-im-not-a-fourth-outfielder/
 
Is Matt Kemp trying to force the Dodgers to trade him? His shoulder seems like it's finally healthy. But how long will it take until he can run unrestricted? And will the Red Sox make a move to acquire him when he can?
 
Let's assume for the moment, that the Sox are interested in improving the outfield. Even if Bradley becomes the best he can be, the Nava/Gomes left field, is less than awesome, and Victorino is getting to be old, while the best non-Bradley outfield prospect just finished a season in Lowell.
 
Help is probably going to have to come from the outside, and there is a lot of room.
 
Grady Sizemore is a real good gamble. If that fails to pay off, and Kemp demonstrates that he is really healthy, and the Dodgers eat some salary, I think there might be room for a deal.
 
But that's a lotta ifs.
 

Rasputin

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reggiecleveland said:
So if the guys we have go bad, he gets good and the dodgers give him to the Sox you are in?
 
That's a bit of an exaggeration, but sure.
 
Hell, I'm probably in even if Sizemore takes over LF and is awesome just because Victorino is getting oldish, and the one caveat I have is that Kemp makes a boatload of money.
 

mattymatty

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Kemp is owed $128 million over the next six seasons (including 2014). That's two years, $40+ million more than Carl Crawford is owed, which is to say it's a lot of money. Kemp can push for a deal all he wants, but unless he proves he's healthy and/or the Dodgers eat salary, it's hard to see anyone taking on his contract, let alone giving up anything of value for him. Unless Tony Reagins gets another GM job. Then maybe.
 
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