Let's Find A New SP7

[johnnywayback]

The Bautista thread has turned into a thread about our bench depth, but I'm actually thinking we could afford to upgrade our SP depth, seeing as we traded Buchholz without getting a pitcher back as part of the deal like some of us had hoped.

The first six slots on the SP depth chart are set: Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Pomeranz, Wright. That's a solid five-man rotation, plus a sixth guy who can be stashed either in the bullpen (Pomeranz or Wright) or in Pawtucket (Rodriguez). Good stuff.

As of this moment, the 7th and 8th starters are Henry Owens and Brian Johnson. That's...less good. I don't think anyone is eager to count on them to make more than a very occasional spot start.

But what's even more troubling is that there is nothing after them. Roenis Elias is out of options. Sean O'Sullivan is gone. I actually think Shawn Haviland might be the next man up?

I've argued elsewhere that we should get a better Josh Rutledge to fill out the bench and back up Sandoval. I think we also need a better depth starter to stash at Pawtucket. This person needs to fit two requirements: 1) have options (or be available on a minor league contract), 2) be better than (or at least as good a candidate as) Henry Owens and Brian Johnson.

We can acquire that person one of three ways: 1) sign one of these guys to a minor-league deal with a spring training invite and hope they're willing to hang out in Pawtucket, 2) sign a minor league free agent, or 3) acquire someone, perhaps in exchange for one or more of our out-of-options guys (Elias, Hembree) or back-end-of-the-40-man guys (Marrero, Brentz).

Anybody have a favorite? Anybody heard a rumor? Anybody comfortable with Henry Owens being two heartbeats away from the rotation?

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'm pretty sure they would send Joe Kelly to Pawtucket to stretch back out before choosing to run Owens or Johnson out there for the long term.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

As of this moment, the 7th and 8th starters are Henry Owens and Brian Johnson. That's...less good. I don't think anyone is eager to count on them to make more than a very occasional spot start.

Which is literally what your 7th and 8th starters will do. The team has bigger issues if Owens and Johnson are taking regular turns through the rotation.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Which is literally what your 7th and 8th starters will do. The team has bigger issues if Owens and Johnson are taking regular turns through the rotation.

Agreed. It's possible that we could trade for an Elias-type who has one more option left with one of our expendable relievers in spring training, but sorta doubtful. It's also possible that Elias himself gets resigned to a MiLB deal. I think it is likely that we'll sign a veteran arm to a MiLB deal with an opt out of May 1 or so if not on the MLB roster. That would provide some early season insurance.

 

[joe dokes]

I think we also need a better depth starter to stash at Pawtucket. This person needs to fit two requirements: 1) have options (or be available on a minor league contract), 2) be better than (or at least as good a candidate as) Henry Owens and Brian Johnson.

I think that Johnson and Owens are the very definition of 7th and 8th starters, and that the person you describe will have higher aspirations, which will make him unavailable except in trade. Trading something for a 7th or 8th starter seems like folly to me.

 

[Saints Rest]

A replacement 5th starter is almost always available at the deadline. Heck, Buch himself might be available then.

Sometimes that guy turns into Jake Peavey, other times it's Erik Bedard.

Until then, I think Johnson and Owens are plenty of depth until July for the occasional spot start. There's probably room as well for one of those classic "bullpen starts" where all 7 bullpen guys throw one or two innings, considering that with Sale, Price, and Porcello, there are three guys likely to pitch into the 8th inning on any given day.

I could see the Sox conceivably signing a reclamation project, be that from injury or ineffectiveness to give some starts in Pawtucket.

 

[judyb]

Didn't Elias being out of options turn out to be incorrect? He was added to Seattle's 40 man in 2014 but didn't spend the required 20 days in the minors that season to have used an option, which only leaves 2015 and 2016, so he should still have one.

 

[johnnywayback]

Didn't Elias being out of options turn out to be incorrect? He was added to Seattle's 40 man in 2014 but didn't spend the required 20 days in the minors that season to have used an option, which only leaves 2015 and 2016, so he should still have one.

Ah, that would indeed be exciting. Well, not exciting. It's still Roenis Elias. But helpful.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

If you're talking about adding a #7 starter, then it would have to be someone who can start the season in AAA. So you're probably talking about either picking up a struggling veteran on a minor league contract, or trading for some other team's not-very-valuable AAA starting pitcher, to join Pawtucket's rotation. If we add someone like that, he should be a RH, since Johnson, Owens, Elias and 4/5ths of the big league rotation are LH.

It's hard to tell which vets might be willing to take a minor league deal, but it wouldn't be anyone very appealing.

As for a possible cheap trade target, I'd like to see if we could make a trade for Mike Hauschild, now with the Rangers after they took him from the Astros in the Rule 5 draft. He probably won't make the Rangers starting staff, and will probably be sent back to Houston at the end of spring training. At that point, he would kind of be between organizations and might be worth trying to pick up cheap. Like Fernando Abad cheap.

Hauschild's probably just another older guy without great stuff, but he threw 139.2 innings in the PCL last year with an ERA of 3.22. 119 Ks, 40 walks with only 7 HRs allowed, which is excellent in that league. Was a college pitcher, so he is already 27. He's nobody's idea of a top prospect, which means he might not cost that much to acquire, and would be a decent option to stash in AAA, in that he is a guy who has excelled in a tough minor league environment, keeps the ball down, and doesn't walk many.

After the Rangers took him, Jon Daniels said "We like the strikes and the forkball-like change. We're going to let him compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, but he might also help in the bullpen," said Rangers general manager Jon Daniels. "He's durable. He gets a lot of ground balls. He was never considered a top prospect, but he's matriculated through the system. He's the kind of guy who gets overlooked."

The Astros would like him back, but if they didn't have room for him on their 40-man, it might not cost that much to trade for him if he's returned:
"He had a good year at Fresno. I think if you went in there and you saw him, I can understand why you'd be attracted to what he can do," Goldstein said. "I think a lot of it came with the splitter, which is his best pitch, and you saw him having success with it against hitters in Triple A and making them look silly at times.

"I wish him all the luck in Texas as long as he's not pitching against us. We'll see how it works out for him and selfishly I also hope we get him back because he's a talented player."

If acquired, he would be a RH guy who could make a spot start or two while riding the shuttle this year, and then maybe ending up a middle reliever in the future. That's about all you could hope for from a #7 or #8 starter.

 

[MikeM]

I think that Johnson and Owens are the very definition of 7th and 8th starters, and that the person you describe will have higher aspirations, which will make him unavailable except in trade. Trading something for a 7th or 8th starter seems like folly to me.

Agreed.

Quality depth is obviously a great asset to have, but this "need for another 7th starter" stuff is getting a little carried away with the micromanagement viewpoint imo.

 

[mauf]

I'm pretty sure they would send Joe Kelly to Pawtucket to stretch back out before choosing to run Owens or Johnson out there for the long term.

Snod has bingo.

I'm comfortable with Owens or Johnson as the 7th starter, but if the FO shares the OP's concern, signing (or trading for) an extra reliever and sending Joe Kelly to Pawtucket is probably the best option. Starting pitchers who have options and are clearly better than Owens/Johnson aren't cheap.

Edit: Yes, the FO might grab a washed-up veteran on a minor-league contract to hedge against the possibility of multiple early-season injuries, but I read the OP as suggesting a more significant move than that.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Snod has bingo.

I'm comfortable with Owens or Johnson as the 7th starter, but if the FO shares the OP's concern, signing (or trading for) an extra reliever and sending Joe Kelly to Pawtucket is probably the best option. Starting pitchers who have options and are clearly better than Owens/Johnson aren't cheap.

Edit: Yes, the FO might grab a washed-up veteran on a minor-league contract to hedge against the possibility of multiple early-season injuries, but I read the OP as suggesting a more significant move than that.

In an ideal world, Kelly only would need to make a few starts in Pawtucket to stretch out to 80 pitches. Assuming he's being directed to pitch exclusively out of his same bullpen stretch mechanics, that's maybe three turns where you have to plug in Elias, Owens, Johnson, and/or pray for rain. That's no worse a problem than any team who loses 2+ starters could hope for.

In an even more ideal world, Carson Smith and Brandon Workman are already back to bolster the bullpen, by the time you need Kelly starting.

I don't think the Sox need to make any other moves to credibly project as one of the best three teams in the AL. And at this point, it will all come down to health and luck and playing the games that count.

 

[MikeM]

I'm pretty sure they would send Joe Kelly to Pawtucket to stretch back out before choosing to run Owens or Johnson out there for the long term.

I'd argue that completely depends on how Joe Kelly is fairing at the time in a full time bullpen role.

If he picks up from last year there is really nothing "bingo" about taking yet another potential step backwards in our hopes of getting a positive and full time contribution out of the last 2 years of his control there. If anything you leave that newfound success alone and look for a SP solution from the outside.

 

[curly2]

I'm probably in the minority, but I think Brian Johnson has a chance to be a decent major league pitcher. If the arm/anxiety issues are behind him, I think he could have a few years in the majors as a No. 5 or maybe No. 4 starter.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I'd argue that completely depends on how Joe Kelly is fairing at the time in a full time bullpen role.

If he picks up from last year there is really nothing "bingo" about taking yet another potential step backwards in our hopes of getting a positive and full time contribution out of the last 2 years of his control there. If anything you leave that newfound success alone and look for a SP solution from the outside.

Pretty much this. If there's a consensus on the coaching staff that Kelly's new slider gives him a potent enough three-pitch mix that it's worth giving him one more shot at starting, well, OK. But I half hope it doesn't happen, because I think what Kelly really needs right now is some sustained success, and the bullpen seems like the shortest path to that.

 

[phenweigh]

Didn't Elias being out of options turn out to be incorrect? He was added to Seattle's 40 man in 2014 but didn't spend the required 20 days in the minors that season to have used an option, which only leaves 2015 and 2016, so he should still have one.

Elias is listed as having an option on soxprospects. They wouldn't be wrong about that, would they?

 

[mauf]

I'm probably in the minority, but I think Brian Johnson has a chance to be a decent major league pitcher. If the arm/anxiety issues are behind him, I think he could have a few years in the majors as a No. 5 or maybe No. 4 starter.

I think there's actually a pretty good chance that either Owens or Johnson will become a decent back-end SP. (I'm more bullish on Owens than Johnson, but that's nitpicking -- the point is that if each of them has a 25% chance of making it, the odds of one of them doing so are close to 50/50.)

 

[Bigpupp]

Elias is listed as having an option on soxprospects. They wouldn't be wrong about that, would they?

The person you quoted was correct. He has an option.

 

[Plympton91]

Elias is listed as having an option on soxprospects. They wouldn't be wrong about that, would they?

This is really good news, as you can just have him in the rotation in Pawtucket and he's a 3rd option for 7th starter. He's actually had major league success over 2 seasons with Seattle. Almost no way you'd be getting anything better.

The other thing they can do is have Workman start the year on the DL and a 30 day rehab stint in Pawtucket's rotation. I feel even better about the pitching depth now than earlier today.

 

[Plympton91]

As a 7th starter, Brian Johnson seems fine to me as long as he's over his anxiety issues. As disappointing as Henry Owens has been to date, he's still not even older than the average for AAA. He could still develop the command he needs to be an effective 5th starter and leap back ahead of Johnson on the depth chart.

Absent having better prospects knocking on the door, they are probably as good as you're going to get for deep depth. So, for me the only alternative would be to try to trade something of real value for a better upper level pitching prospect than Johnson/Owens. That seems likely to be more expensive than the risk, though I'm sure they're constantly on the lookout for such an opportunity.

Thinking further out of the box, Hembree had several 3+ inning outings last year that were successful. Stretch him out in spring training and see what happens, then keep him around as a long reliever who could maybe give you 5 innings in an emergency.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Kyle Kendrick, perhaps best known as being the victim of a spring training prank where he was told he was being traded to Japan, has been signed to a minor league deal and invited to spring training. He has 212 career starts (253 total appearances) with a record of 81-81 with a 4.99 ERA. He spent last season in the Angels minor league system and last pitched in the big leagues in 2015 for the Rockies.

Seems like he's candidate #1 for the role of 2017 version of Sean O'Sullivan.

 

[nvalvo]

Kyle Kendrick, perhaps best known as being the victim of a spring training prank where he was told he was being traded to Japan, has been signed to a minor league deal and invited to spring training. He has 212 career starts (253 total appearances) with a record of 81-81 with a 4.99 ERA. He spent last season in the Angels minor league system and last pitched in the big leagues in 2015 for the Rockies.

Seems like he's candidate #1 for the role of 2017 version of Sean O'Sullivan.

I really like Kendrick on a minor league deal in the SP7 slot. 32 years old, low K, low BB, career ERA+ of 88, pretty much a flyball pitcher. 90ish FB, which he plays off a cutter, curve, and split. Hitters put the ball in play against him, so he lives and dies by his BABIP and HR/FB rates. His season in Colorado was pretty rough.

No real upside — unless putting a flyball pitcher in front of Betts, Bradley, and Benintendi counts as upside — but he's... okay at pitching. I guess that's basically the best you can expect from a veteran SP7 signing.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

No real upside — unless putting a flyball pitcher in front of Betts, Bradley, and Benintendi counts as upside — but he's... okay at pitching. I guess that's basically the best you can expect from a veteran SP7 signing.

Exactly. He's had more success in MLB than Owens and Johnson and costs nothing. Perfect signing.

 

[Plympton91]

The key will be if they can keep him around the way they did with O'Sullivan last year. He'll have a standard May 1 opt-out date, which may be too early for any depth needs to really show themselves.

 

[nvalvo]

The key will be if they can keep him around the way they did with O'Sullivan last year. He'll have a standard May 1 opt-out date, which may be too early for any depth needs to really show themselves.

I don't think it's especially likely that he'll have many better options, but you never know. The Angels never called him up last year, and they got far enough down the depth chart that Tim Lincecum got 9 starts with an ERA above 9.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Is he coming off an injury? I'm assuming yes given his IP total in rookie ball and his overall IP total. Perfect fit for SP7 though. Control pitcher who can give you 5-6 innings. Only problem with him is once you call him up, you have to send him back down. No one claimed O'Sullivan though.