Lester: Stop Believing What You Read on Twitter.

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
Right, you wouldn't want to have a starter give up 6 runs in 7 innings in the play-in game...

 
Well played.
 
This is my problem with "we have to have this guy because he's a proven playoff performer" thinking, whether it's about Lester or anybody else (e.g. Sandoval). You just can't count on trends established in such small chunks. The minute you do, instant regression gonna knock you right on the head.

 

[twothousandone]

 

So you don't get a tier 1 pitcher, you get a bunch of tier 2's, build a lights out bullpen and slug the crap out of the ball.

 

I am a broken record.  So maybe I should stop posting this.  But…..
 
1.  Sign Shields.  He'll come a lot cheaper.  He's very solid.  Not a great playoff guy, but oh well.  Worth a 4-year deal.  He'll be very good here.

There are always projections, and projections don't eliminate risks, but Lester at $25 million a year for 7 years equates to what for Shields? $22 million/year for four years? 
 
If that's the trade-off, I think I'd rather pay 37-year old Jon Lester $25 million in 2021 than 37-year old James Shields $22 million in 2019. 

 

[koufax37]

 
 

 
There are always projections, and projections don't eliminate risks, but Lester at $25 million a year for 7 years equates to what for Shields? $22 million/year for four years? 
 
If that's the trade-off, I think I'd rather pay 37-year old Jon Lester $25 million in 2021 than 37-year old James Shields $22 million in 2019. 

 

 
A valid point, but while the "37" part of it plays an important roll, the further into the future you go the more the risk, even if the age is the same.  Just like I wouldn't hate paying a good 37 year old $18 on a one year deal.  And the length of the Lester deal also has increased risk if the train goes off the tracks instead of just gradually losing steam.  But I'm not convinced that Lester will necessarily be the most overpaid pitcher of this market when the dust settles.  Just that he will be a good pitcher with a bad contract as Verducci phrased it.

 

[LahoudOrBillyC]

Of course the endgame of this thought is that you just pay anything for anyone and not care, and I don't want to espouse that idea.  I just don't think it's the end of the world either way.  If Lester goes elsewhere, not the end of the world.  If the Red Sox choose to overpay Lester, not the end of the world, even if Lester pitches like 2012 for the life of the contract.

 
I agree that the Red Sox could survive a Lester contract disaster.  The problem I see is that the upside, the pie-in-the-sky-everything-goes-splendidly scenario, is that Lester is worth his contract.  There are a whole range of scenarios, and the top of the scale, is "phew, it worked out."   There is no "wow, what a bargain that was!" paths.  This is why huge post-30 FA contracts range between horrific and OK.  Sabathia was 28 when he was signed, and a much better pitcher than Lester, and the Yankees got a few excellent years out of him.  Once he got to Lester's current age, he was a #3 starter.  And Sabathia is at the very high end of successful pitcher FAs.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

All this talk about "bad contracts" ignores both context and lateral thinking. Every season some players raise the bar for the next seasons. Sometimes it's money, sometimes it's trade chips. It is what it is and it means conceding great players to only the wealthy or the well-stocked.
 
As for bemoaning long term contracts - who's to say a Lester doesn't morph into a great bullpen arm - like Smoltz, who at 31 started breaking down - had TJ and reinvented himself as an all-star caliber closer at 35. 
 
I'm not promoting signing a guy long term to give up 1 year+ for TJ, just saying there are alternatives to an aging pitcher on an expensive contract clogging up the top of a rotation through his golden years.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
Especially with the 1 game play-in setup, I think it may be a disadvantage to not have an elite starter or two when trying to build a contender.

 
It would be a disadvantage, but if the Sox have good Clay next year, I'd pit him against any ace in a one-game playoff.  Because good Clay is dominant.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 

There are always projections, and projections don't eliminate risks, but Lester at $25 million a year for 7 years equates to what for Shields? $22 million/year for four years? 
 
If that's the trade-off, I think I'd rather pay 37-year old Jon Lester $25 million in 2021 than 37-year old James Shields $22 million in 2019. 

 
Except that $22 million/year for four years would only have you paying 36-year old James Shields $22 million in 2018. (Of course you may still think that's a worse deal than 37-year old Lester at $25M.)

 

[ivanvamp]

 
 

 
There are always projections, and projections don't eliminate risks, but Lester at $25 million a year for 7 years equates to what for Shields? $22 million/year for four years? 
 
If that's the trade-off, I think I'd rather pay 37-year old Jon Lester $25 million in 2021 than 37-year old James Shields $22 million in 2019. 

 

 
Maybe.  But that's three more years down the road, and who knows what happens in that time? 
 
I want Lester, and I agree that with the young talent coming up, the Sox should be able to absorb even a bad Lester contract towards the end.  
 
But 7/175??  Holy schamoly.

 

[CSteinhardt]

If it's anything close to 7/175, this just makes no sense.  6/130 is too much for Lester.  7/175 is too much for Lester and Masterson.

 

[ivanvamp]

I will say that even though 7/175 is a huge overpay, the Red Sox would be a much better team with him in the rotation than without.  So there's that.

 

[TigerBlood]

I am a broken record.  So maybe I should stop posting this.  But…..
 
1.  Sign Shields.  He'll come a lot cheaper.  He's very solid.  Not a great playoff guy, but oh well.  Worth a 4-year deal.  He'll be very good here.
 
2.  Sign McCarthy.  Again, not a CYA winner, but a pretty solid pitcher.
 
3.  Trade Cespedes + prospect for Porcello.  
 
4.  Sign Masterson.  May get a lottery ticket there.  
 
5.  Shore up the bullpen.
 
Shields, McCarthy, Porcello, Buchholz, Kelly/Masterson.  The kids are ready at a moment's notice to be in the pen or to help the rotation.  That's a very solid, if not spectacular, rotation.  If we get good Masterson and good Clay, it's a *great* rotation.  And all without the long-term albatross kind of contract.

Now you want four guys? what does it even mean to have Kelly/Masterson in the 5th starter position? They're both going to get a legit shot at starting. And you doubt all of our young starters so much that not only won't you give them a single guaranteed spot in the rotation, but you're penciling a number 6 in front of them.
 
Boston. Has. Starting. Depth. That is not the problem with our rotation. What we need are anchors for the front half of it. The only part of your plan I agree with is a Cespedes trade for someone of Porcello's caliber, and maybe signing Masterson for one year.
 
 

 
 

 
There are always projections, and projections don't eliminate risks, but Lester at $25 million a year for 7 years equates to what for Shields? $22 million/year for four years? 
 
If that's the trade-off, I think I'd rather pay 37-year old Jon Lester $25 million in 2021 than 37-year old James Shields $22 million in 2019. 

 

 
What level of certainty would you say you have in knowing how Shields will be pitching in 2019? Lester in 2021? If your answers are anything but "very, very low, almost none" I think you should re-evaluate.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Lester has affirmed that he wasn't the type who would go to the highest bidder, yet this process has seemed like the opposite of this. I guess "being comfortable" = the most $$$. He should of just kept his mouth shut like Ellsbury- at least we knew what he wanted.
 
Makes me think that Lester was always going to test FA unless he was blown away by an extension offer last March. Doubt this Homer Bailey-esque contract scenario that was thrown around by the media would have netted Lester. 

 

[BarrettsHiddenBall]

 
You are coming awfully close to sounding like an MFY fan with statements like this.  Never mind the fact that the one playoff visit in the last 5 years produced their 3rd WS title in less than 10 years. 
 
Pissing and moaning that the RS should sign Lester because they havent made the playoffs frequently is exactly what we hate about MFY fans ...

Except that's not what he said at all. He's noting that the team's recent performance is not necessarily a reason to have confidence in the FO.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Lester has affirmed that he wasn't the type who would go to the highest bidder, yet this process has seemed like the opposite of this. I guess "being comfortable" = the most $$$. He should of just kept his mouth shut like Ellsbury- at least we knew what he wanted.
 
Makes me think that Lester was always going to test FA unless he was blown away by an extension offer last March. Doubt this Homer Bailey-esque contract scenario that was thrown around by the media would have netted Lester. 

 
Like every player, ever. But let's wait to see what he signs for and with which team before we start throwing labels around.

 

[Dogman]

Except that's not what he said at all. He's noting that the team's recent performance is not necessarily a reason to have confidence in the FO.

 
It's best to sit back and do some reading about P91 so that you get to know what he is before coming to his defense. 

 

[Plympton91]

 
I agree that the Red Sox could survive a Lester contract disaster.  The problem I see is that the upside, the pie-in-the-sky-everything-goes-splendidly scenario, is that Lester is worth his contract.  There are a whole range of scenarios, and the top of the scale, is "phew, it worked out."   There is no "wow, what a bargain that was!" paths.  This is why huge post-30 FA contracts range between horrific and OK.  Sabathia was 28 when he was signed, and a much better pitcher than Lester, and the Yankees got a few excellent years out of him.  Once he got to Lester's current age, he was a #3 starter.  And Sabathia is at the very high end of successful pitcher FAs.

And Sabathia weighted 300 pounds, and was abused by his managers in Cleveland and Milwaukee.

The problem with this argument is that you never sign a top free agent, and you only resign your homegrown stars if they decide to be altrustic toward their billionaire owner and allow him/her to pocket the difference between what you agreed to be paid and what they would have been willing to pay.

 

[koufax37]

I will say that even though 7/175 is a huge overpay, the Red Sox would be a much better team with him in the rotation than without.  So there's that.

 
No, they will be a better team or a worse team based on the other 24 players allowed on the roster with the allocation of the rest of our limited resources.  So unless you condition your statement with an impossible to exist "all else being equal", then I might disagree.
 
I think they are likely to be a better 2015 and 2016 team even given the opportunity cost of this contract. I don't think we can get as much better elsewhere with $25M/yr for two years, but we all know he won't sign for 2/50.  I like him at 5/125 and 6/138, but just barely, and I think as you blow past that point you are necessarily misallocating limited resources, and ensuring your team is worse over the six to seven year window.
 
Some teams need to go for it, but I think one with three recent rings, one of which is still pretty shiny, can afford to make the smarter choices that allow it to be better for longer.

 

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

Lester has affirmed that he wasn't the type who would go to the highest bidder, yet this process has seemed like the opposite of this. I guess "being comfortable" = the most $$$. He should of just kept his mouth shut like Ellsbury- at least we knew what he wanted.
 
Makes me think that Lester was always going to test FA unless he was blown away by an extension offer last March. Doubt this Homer Bailey-esque contract scenario that was thrown around by the media would have netted Lester.

 

Like every player, ever. But let's wait to see what he signs for and with which team before we start throwing labels around.
 

 
Besides, back when Lester made those comments, playing for the Red Sox and for Boston fans was all he ever knew. To leave that may have seemed daunting at the time, but in trading him, the Sox provided an opportunity for him to find out that maybe leaving the organization and city wasn't such a sea change after all.

 

[BarrettsHiddenBall]

 
It's best to sit back and do some reading about P91 so that you get to know what he is before coming to his defense. 

Yeah, I've been reading since '03, and I'm not trying to take anyone's side; I just find rejecting any criticism of the FO as "MFY thinking" leads to a less interesting discussion is all.

 

[pjr]

Jayson StarkVerified account ‏@jaysonst 1m1 minute ago
Lester talks aren't just slowing pitching market. Also affecting bat market. Teams in on Cespedes frustrated #RedSox can't move him yet
 
https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/542398756994293760

 

[glennhoffmania]

Jayson StarkVerified account ‏@jaysonst 1m1 minute ago
Lester talks aren't just slowing pitching market. Also affecting bat market. Teams in on Cespedes frustrated #RedSox can't move him yet
 
https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/542398756994293760

Why? Move him anyway. How does getting or not getting Lester impact the decision to trade Cespedes?

 

[caminante11]

Why? Move him anyway. How does getting or not getting Lester impact the decision to trade Cespedes?

 
It could be that with no Lester, they want to include Cespedes in a bigger deal for a better pitcher.

 

[canyoubelieveit]

Why? Move him anyway. How does getting or not getting Lester impact the decision to trade Cespedes?

 
There are probably different trades on the table depending on whether Lester is signed.
 
Example A:  Lester is signed.  Sox then trade Cespedes for Porcello.
Example B:  Lester is not signed.  Sox need an ace, so they trade Cespedes and Brock Holt for Sale, Shark, and David Robertson.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Why? Move him anyway. How does getting or not getting Lester impact the decision to trade Cespedes?

 
Depends on whether or not they move him for MLB talent (#2, #3 type SP) or prospects who could be part of an even bigger trade for a upper tier SP.

 

[DJnVa]

Why? Move him anyway. How does getting or not getting Lester impact the decision to trade Cespedes?

 
It impacts who we may want in return.
 
EDIT: Or what everyone else said.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

 
It could be that with no Lester, they want to include Cespedes in a bigger deal for a better pitcher.

just the latest reason why I want to see Lester's decision get done, one way or another.  Hopefully the other teams that may be in on Cespedes can hang in there...

 

[wibi]

Yeah, I've been reading since '03, and I'm not trying to take anyone's side; I just find rejecting any criticism of the FO as "MFY thinking" leads to a less interesting discussion is all.

 
I find it very troublesome when someone is complaining about the FO with the statement that they have only made the playoffs once in the last five years and fails to give them credit for winning the WS in the year they did make the playoffs.  Complaining about not making the playoffs is something we used to ridicule MFY fans around here about in 03 and 04 (and even after the 04 WS).   I'm not in the mood or mental state to argue with someone who claims that the FO is doing a bad job simply because this team doesnt make the playoffs as often as we'd all like them to.

 

[curly2]

It's just as plausible that Lester and his team are doing the Red Sox a favor by delaying an anniouncment that he's going elsewhere...allowing Cherrington to line up an alternative deal without eroding his negotiating position with the public knowledge that the Red Sox lost the Lester sweepstakes.

Lots of possibilities...not all suck.

I think the Sox are truly in the dark. If they knew the were losing Lester I think they would have offered Liriano more than he got from the Pirates. (I realize there is a chance they did try but word hasn't gotten out yet).

I think the endless wait is hurting the Sox, not helping.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

 If they knew the were losing Lester I think they would have offered Liriano more than he got from the Pirates. 

Signing Liriano as the #2 or #3 guy would really have had nothing to do with Lester.  I don't think the Sox valued him above 3/39.  With his walks and right-handed lineups of the AL East taking aim at the Monster, he probably wouldn't put up the same #s he's been putting up in Pittsburgh with that Death Valley 2 in LF.  

 

[cannonball 1729]

 
I find it very troublesome when someone is complaining about the FO with the statement that they have only made the playoffs once in the last five years and fails to give them credit for winning the WS in the year they did make the playoffs.  Complaining about not making the playoffs is something we used to ridicule MFY fans around here about in 03 and 04 (and even after the 04 WS).   I'm not in the mood or mental state to argue with someone who claims that the FO is doing a bad job simply because this team doesnt make the playoffs as often as we'd all like them to.

 
Why is this troublesome?  The organization has stated repeatedly that the goal is to make the playoffs every year, and they've generally endorsed the idea that the playoffs are a crapshoot.  We can certainly debate whether the latter statement is correct, but why shouldn't we use the standard articulated by the organization as a basis for grading the organization?
 
And I believe the second part is backwards - we ridiculed Yankee fans for whining about not winning the World Series after making the playoffs every year.  Ridiculing Yankee fans for complaining about not making the playoffs would have been tough in '03 or 04, since they made the playoffs every year from 1995 to 2007.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Rob Bradford ‏@bradfo 6s7 seconds ago
FWIW, Red Sox were very much in Lester chase as of earlier this morning
 

 

[joe dokes]

Jayson StarkVerified account ‏@jaysonst 1m1 minute ago
Lester talks aren't just slowing pitching market. Also affecting bat market. Teams in on Cespedes frustrated #RedSox can't move him yet
 
https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/542398756994293760

 
This could also be complete bullshit supplied by some team that wants Cespedes but not for the price the Sox want.  So that team just throws shit at the wall.  "Yeah, Jayson, we're ready to move on Cespedes but the Sox are all gummed up." Nobody has any reason to tell any reproter the truth right now. "all gummed up" being GM-speak for, we've offered them the bat boy, but they keep saying no."

 

[sean1562]

if we have truly hit the 7/175 area, i would rather give it to scherzer or any of the top three next year. I think all of those guys are better than Jon Lester is and will be worth more over the course of the deal. I know he is home grown, but 6/150 is already a pretty huge overpay for the guy. Last year was probably the best year he will ever have. I dont think we are adding a 5-6 win pitcher next season by signing him. And I think it is much more likely that this team is really good in 2016 than really good in 2015

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Moved the posts about which city is the best one to live in to here. 

 

[Leather]

 
This could also be complete bullshit supplied by some team that wants Cespedes but not for the price the Sox want.  So that team just throws shit at the wall.  "Yeah, Jayson, we're ready to move on Cespedes but the Sox are all gummed up." Nobody has any reason to tell any reproter the truth right now. "all gummed up" being GM-speak for, we've offered them the bat boy, but they keep saying no."

 
How would that get the Red Sox to budge?  What misinformation would that provide the Red Sox to change their position on trading Cespedes?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Take this with a grain of salt since it is one of the Pepens.

 

Nilson Pepén ‏@JuniorPepen 2m2 minutes ago
En estos momentos, los #RedSox están haciendo un último esfuerzo en traer de vuelta a Jon Lester. Seguiremos informando !!! #WinterMeetings
 
 

Roughly translated to: At present , the #RedSox are making a last effort to bring back Jon Lester . Keep you informed !!!

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Take this with a grain of salt since it is one of the Pepens.
 
Roughly translated to: At present , the #RedSox are making a last effort to bring back Jon Lester . Keep you informed !!!

 
Upgrading the offer to 6/150 or adding an option year ? Don't mind the former but an easily attainable option for a 7th year is scary - probably would just prefer a 6/160 or somesuch ..an overpay in any case but thats the nature of FA. 
 
And it will be true next year as well with Price, Zimmerman and Cueto 

 

[Auger34]

I imagine if Lester goes they go after a better pitcher that will be an FA next year (Zim, Cueto). If he comes back go after someone with some years of control left. (Ross, etc)

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Moved the discussion about players, agents and teams to the MLB forum.

 

[twothousandone]

if we have truly hit the 7/175 area, i would rather give it to scherzer or any of the top three next year. I think all of those guys are better than Jon Lester is and will be worth more over the course of the deal. I know he is home grown, but 6/150 is already a pretty huge overpay for the guy. Last year was probably the best year he will ever have. I dont think we are adding a 5-6 win pitcher next season by signing him. And I think it is much more likely that this team is really good in 2016 than really good in 2015

But what if Scherzer (do we all agree he's a better pitcher, even if we don't know or agree that he'll age better?) is offered 7/$182million ($26 million a year for seven years)?
What if it's 8/$200 million? He might get more money or more years or both. If Chicago lost out on Lester to SF, why wouldn't they offer the same amount, and maybe even a little more, for Scherzer? Does anyone think that after Lester signs, it isn't the easy starting point for Scherzer? Does anyone think Scherzer would accept less? It's possible other teams share your opinion and don't think Lester is worth it.
 
But if they jump in the bidding for Scherzer, it sends the price tag that much higher, still. (It's why Marvin Miller is a genius, so was Charlie O, and Dan Duquette a magician to get Ramirez for less than the Indians were offering.)
 
If the Sox want a "bargain" in pitching, it has to be their own guy who starts to deliver, or they have to trade something of value to get it.

 

[joe dokes]

 
This could also be complete bullshit supplied by some team that wants Cespedes but not for the price the Sox want.  So that team just throws shit at the wall.  "Yeah, Jayson, we're ready to move on Cespedes but the Sox are all gummed up." Nobody has any reason to tell any reproter the truth right now. "all gummed up" being GM-speak for, we've offered them the bat boy, but they keep saying no."

 
Possibility they'll look elsewhere and leave Sox with a guy they want to move?

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

But what if Scherzer (do we all agree he's a better pitcher, even if we don't know or agree that he'll age better?) is offered 7/$182million ($26 million a year for seven years)?
What if it's 8/$200 million? He might get more money or more years or both. If Chicago lost out on Lester to SF, why wouldn't they offer the same amount, and maybe even a little more, for Scherzer? Does anyone think that after Lester signs, it isn't the easy starting point for Scherzer? Does anyone think Scherzer would accept less? It's possible other teams share your opinion and don't think Lester is worth it.
 
But if they jump in the bidding for Scherzer, it sends the price tag that much higher, still. (It's why Marvin Miller is a genius, so was Charlie O, and Dan Duquette a magician to get Ramirez for less than the Indians were offering.)
 
If the Sox want a "bargain" in pitching, it has to be their own guy who starts to deliver, or they have to trade something of value to get it.

 
I guess this is the essence of the problem .. right now an ACE calibre pitcher is going to cost > 150/6 .. next year its going to be 10% more .. if you want one of these guys that's the price you have to pay.
 
With the existing rampant inflationary pressures long term deals are going to look more and more attractive (as Ruben Amaro Jr. rubs his hands in glee)

 

[geoduck no quahog]

if we have truly hit the 7/175 area, i would rather give it to scherzer or any of the top three next year...

All of whom use Lester's offer as a starting point for their negotiations.

How many times do people have to repeat that the market is established by what Lester is offered?

 

[sean1562]

But what if Scherzer (do we all agree he's a better pitcher, even if we don't know or agree that he'll age better?) is offered 7/$182million ($26 million a year for seven years)?
What if it's 8/$200 million? He might get more money or more years or both. If Chicago lost out on Lester to SF, why wouldn't they offer the same amount, and maybe even a little more, for Scherzer? Does anyone think that after Lester signs, it isn't the easy starting point for Scherzer? Does anyone think Scherzer would accept less? It's possible other teams share your opinion and don't think Lester is worth it.
 
But if they jump in the bidding for Scherzer, it sends the price tag that much higher, still. (It's why Marvin Miller is a genius, so was Charlie O, and Dan Duquette a magician to get Ramirez for less than the Indians were offering.)
 
If the Sox want a "bargain" in pitching, it has to be their own guy who starts to deliver, or they have to trade something of value to get it.

If it is higher it is higher. Honestly, I would prefer to sign any of the three guys next year to either of the guys this year. If we are gonna break the bank on a FA, i would want it to be on a 2016 FA. And if this sets a new baseline, then I would still probably prefer to pay Scherzer a but more. Lester is not some HoF guy. 

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

If it is higher it is higher. Honestly, I would prefer to sign any of the three guys next year to either of the guys this year. If we are gonna break the bank on a FA, i would want it to be on a 2016 FA. And if this sets a new baseline, then I would still probably prefer to pay Scherzer a but more. Lester is not some HoF guy. 

 
Neither are (imo) Price, Cueto and Zimmerman.  
 
The attraction of Lester is that they know him and they know he can pitch in Boston. There are no projections that have to be done about parks and leagues.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Moved all the Testing Era posts to a new thread in MLB.

 

[Carmen Fanzone]

 
Why is this troublesome?  

 
The A's have made the playoffs three of the last five years compared to the Red Sox making it in one of the last five.
 
Want to trade places with Oakland fans?

 

[CaskNFappin]

Sure, but I was feeling a lot better about it when it sounded like 6/135 was a possible outcome. The market for starting pitchers has become insane. And I don't foresee a correction any time in the near future.

Which is why you bite the bullet now and overpay like a drunken sailor. There is not one pitcher under our control who I can see becoming an ace within the next 3-5 years except Rodriguez and maybe Owens. The very talented free agent crop of next year will lose some to extensions and others will easily top 200 mil deals. We will see this movie again next year, and the year after.....

 

[Cellar-Door]

 
Neither are (imo) Price, Cueto and Zimmerman.  
 
The attraction of Lester is that they know him and they know he can pitch in Boston. There are no projections that have to be done about parks and leagues.

The attraction of the other three is they'll be younger, and at least over the last 3 years they've been better pitchers.

 

[cannonball 1729]

 
The A's have made the playoffs three of the last five years compared to the Red Sox making it in one of the last five.
 
Want to trade places with Oakland fans?

 
I would gladly trade general managers with them.