Lester: Stop Believing What You Read on Twitter.

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Why are people still putting the Yankees in this? They haven't been rumored other than on SOSH because people want to get mad about the Yankees signing yet another former Red Sox. If Lester goes to SF good for him. Thanks for the two titles and hopefully Hamels comes aboard at a much better contract and leads the Sox to two more.

It seemed obvious that what I meant was that I wouldn't be upset if he went anywhere else.... EVEN the Yankees.  I realize that they are likely not involved, but normally when Sox players end up in pinstripes it drives everyone insane.  I wouldn't care.  I don't care if he ends up somewhere else.  The money being tossed around is too much, IMO, for the Sox to involve themselves and continue to put up a competitive team around him.  See ya.  
 
Edit.  We still don't know what happened after the initial offer back in March of last year... but the Sox offer at the time was fair as a starting point IMO.  Lester was never consistently an ace and even pitched for far too long of uninjured stretches like a bottom of the rotation guy.  He did not carry the '11 team the way I was expecting him to.  He had a stretch of dominance from the summer through the World Series that tinted how he was valued, but I've seen far too many good (but not great, and not worthy) pitchers put together stretches like that and end up with a crazy contract.

 

[86spike]

So the offers are all very similar, yet he needs more time to sort through them? Anyone else confused yet?

He's not sorting through anything. His agents are dragging it out in hopes of one team jumping the others and making a final bigger offer.

Don't read these tweets literally. Read them for what they are: coded messages leaked on purpose by the agents.

And while fan frustration is understandable, if you could earn another million dollars a year by taking it slow for another day, wouldn't you do the same thing?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

This is romanticized bullshit that has no place in a game worth billions of dollars. Sentiment like this was propped up by by gross power imbalances dictated from the top, like the reserve clause. 2 men, a look in the eye and a handshake over a fair deal never existed in the first place and is only a negotiating and marketing ploy by one side to play on misplaced nostalgia in the hopes of saving money.

If the Red Sox decide the price is to high (and I agree with them that it probably is) then both sides executed a business decision and there's no moral failing beyond both sides behaving ethically.

 
Hear, hear. Read The Glory of Their Times if you think that "look in the eye and a handshake" stuff was ever SOP in baseball. Or better yet, Bill James' classic essay "A Decade Wrapped in Greed" from the New Historical Baseball Abstract, with its refrain, "They all wanted the money, and they all wanted it all." From the beginning of professional baseball, owners jerked players around at contract time in all kinds of ways. It's just a two-way street now, as it should be.

 

[Corsi]

Nick Cafardo ‏@nickcafardo  2m2 minutes agoSan Diego, CA
SF Cubs BOS were still in play for Jon Lester per mAjor league source who did not know status of Dodgers or of potential NYY interest

 

[Montana Fan]

His agents are outstanding negotiators. They are extracting every dime and will lay out the offers for Lester to choose from. The waiting sucks for us loyal fans but the heartbreak of seeing him sign elsewhere will suck more. Then the agony will go away when he doesn't age like Petitte or Glavine but instead ages like Halladay or CC.

 

[joe dokes]

In a world where James Shields gets 6/$130, the Sox are going to have to either really reconsider their principles regarding the FA market or resign themselves to relying strictly on the farm to provide top SPs or trade fodder to acquire it.

I honestly can't believe it if someone gives that to Shields. Pitching is abundant and the market seems to be exploding.

 
Without getting too far afield in the Lester FA thread . . . . This post raised some interesting questions for me. As always, i come at this not from "they;re idiots, they fucked everything up," but to try and figure out what they think they're doing, as I assume there's thought in the process.
 
---Is avoiding market inefficiencies (6year/130M contracts for the James Shields of the world; or even 7 years for Jon Lester) the mirror image of the capitalizing on market inefficiencies (OBP, for example) that drove the Moneyball wave?
 
--Is the Sox having stockpiled young pitching  that is at least tradeable for established pitching the new (positive) exploitation of market inefficiency by bigger-market teams?; that inefficiency being that teams are willing to over-bet on prospects?  So for example, if the Sox trade a bunch of pitching prospects -- but still retain others that might be cost-controlled major leaguers) -- in order to "get stuck" "only" with 4 years of Hamels and not 7 years of Lester, is that a reasonable reaction to Henry's very reasonable observation about long term FA deals for over-30 pitchers? This is sort of counter to the conventional wisdom that "it's only money" usually trumps giving up prospects AND acquiring the contract. 
 
In the end, of course, it depends on who they surrender and who they keep, but maybe *this* is how they are rethinking FA stuff -- that their goal is to have enough trade chips to trade some good ones to avoid those extra years, while still keeping other prospects to play for them.

 

[EllisTheRimMan]

The way I see it, if the offers keep going up and more teams keep getting involved, Lester and his agents would have to be fools to decide on an offer until they're sure that this process has plateaued and/or the team they really want (hopefully, Boston) is going to drop out.  Given that the reports/tweets keep indicating that the offers are getting better and better and there are at least 4 teams bidding (none of them the Yankees) then biding their time is the most logical play.

 

[Section15Box113]

 
Well as of about 5 PM yesterday, Rosenthal (and someone else I believe) tweeted that the Sox were out on Lester......

His report indicated that they were out, unless something changed.

Which it could. With one conversation. And others also indicated the Sox were planning to meet with Lester's agents again.

However, it certainly did not sound hopeful. Some of the Edes tweets from Ben's PC read like they were moving on.

But if there was going to be another meeting, the were still talking. Which meant it's all part of the dance.

Now, with all of these reports that the offers are in the same ballpark, you could certainly make the case that we've got as good a shot (and maybe a better shot given his track record here?) than the others. Unless something changes. A 7th year or whatever.

Agree with the earlier post that the agents are doing their job. They'll posture and do whatever they can to get each team's best offer on the table. And then it's up to the player.

Until then, we don't know. And hate the thought of this dragging into Wednesday.

 

[natpastime162]

His agents are outstanding negotiators. They are extracting every dime and will lay out the offers for Lester to choose from. The waiting sucks for us loyal fans but the heartbreak of seeing him sign elsewhere will suck more. Then the agony will go away when he doesn't age like Petitte or Glavine but instead ages like Halladay or CC.

 
I know 6/$150 has been mentioned, but are any teams actually associated with that offer like the 6/$130 and 6/$138 from Boston and Chicago?  At some point teams will need to make offers that expire when the Levinsons leave the room.

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

The entire thing is shameful FROM ALL ENDS. I almost pine for the days of one player, one owner, a look in the eyes, and a handshake. I guess the last player who was man enough to do that in any sport was Tedy Bruschi. And we, voyeurs all, check back constantly like lemmings.  This is all so......twenty-first century.
 
"Money doesn't talk - it swears." - Bob Dylan

 

This is romanticized bullshit that has no place in a game worth billions of dollars. Sentiment like this was propped up by by gross power imbalances dictated from the top, like the reserve clause. 2 men, a look in the eye and a handshake over a fair deal never existed in the first place and is only a negotiating and marketing ploy by one side to play on misplaced nostalgia in the hopes of saving money.

If the Red Sox decide the price is to high (and I agree with them that it probably is) then both sides executed a business decision and there's no moral failing beyond both sides behaving ethically.

 
This should be pinned here at the start of every hot stove season. #counterarguments 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

His agents are outstanding negotiators. They are extracting every dime and will lay out the offers for Lester to choose from. The waiting sucks for us loyal fans but the heartbreak of seeing him sign elsewhere will suck more. Then the agony will go away when he doesn't age like Petitte or Glavine but instead ages like Halladay or CC.

Perfect summary of the situation.

 

[Don Buddin's GS]

Is Lester worth $150 mil+? This dude at Sports on Earth says negatory:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/103568240/mlb-hot-stove-winter-meetings-jon-lester

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Then the agony will go away when he doesn't age like Petitte or Glavine but instead ages like Halladay or CC.

The team that signs him hopes and prays he ages like Halladay, who was still putting up Cy Young-caliber numbers at 34 and didn't downright suck until age 36.

 

[Plympton91]

It's foolish to blame the Sox "lowball" offer for them potentially not signing. It was a reasonable starting point at that time, and frankly...there is zero evidence that Lester and his camp ever gave the Sox any indication what it would take for him to forego free agency (some random comment about how he would have taken $1 more than Homer Bailey months after the fact isn't necessarily realistic, IMO).

If you really want to avoid a guy getting to FA, you probably have to sign him more than a year before he's eligible for FA, a la Pedroia, or give him an offer he can't refuse. That was never going to happen. And again, the #s being thrown about now are silly and whoever wins this will regret it.

It was a reasonable starting point at that time,

Show your work.

there is zero evidence that Lester and his camp ever gave the Sox any indication what it would take for him to forego free agency

There is a direct quote from Lester that the 6-$144 offer the Tigers gave Scherzer would have been hard to turn down. The "random quote" you mention comes from a Hall of Fame Sportswriter with more connections in the game than the current Boston Globe staff combined.

If you really want to avoid a guy getting to FA, you probably have to sign him more than a year before he's eligible for FA, a la Pedroia, or give him an offer he can't refuse. That was never going to happen.

If it was never going to happen, that was a choice. Just like giving $100 million over 5 years to an out-of-shape slightly above average 3bman who is changing leagues and gets a significant share of his value from unreliable defensive statistics and is moving from a situation that would inflate them (lots of foul territory, even in key road parks, defensive wizard at SS) to a situation that will deflate them (little foul territory, below-average at best SS). Or giving $110 million to a problem child also changing leagues and changing his position from one where offense is quite scarce to one where offense is easier to come by (and who is displacing the current leftfielder, who will now have to be dumped for a player less talented than the one we gave up to acquire him).

But, hey, the Red Sox know what they're doing! They've made the playoffs once in the past 5 years.

And again, the #s being thrown about now are silly and whoever wins this will regret it.

They may not be getting much value from Lester in years 5 and 6 of the contract, but that's a very different thing than, "regretting it." Whether they "regret it" will be determined by what he does over the entirety of the contract.

By your definition, the Red Sox should regret signing Keith Foulke. After all, they only got one good year out him. What a waste of resources.

 

[Corsi]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale  1m1 minute ago
The #SFGiants officials are more optimistic than 24 hours ago that Jon Lester will pick them, while eagerly waiting final decision.

 

[wibi]

But, hey, the Red Sox know what they're doing! They've made the playoffs once in the past 5 years.

 
You are coming awfully close to sounding like an MFY fan with statements like this.  Never mind the fact that the one playoff visit in the last 5 years produced their 3rd WS title in less than 10 years. 
 
Pissing and moaning that the RS should sign Lester because they havent made the playoffs frequently is exactly what we hate about MFY fans ...

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

 
You are coming awfully close to sounding like an MFY fan with statements like this.  Never mind the fact that the one playoff visit in the last 5 years produced their 3rd WS title in less than 10 years. 
 
Pissing and moaning that the RS should sign Lester because they havent made the playoffs frequently is exactly what we hate about MFY fans ...

 
On the plus side, he'll have a new topic for endless rehashing next year so we can move on from Ellsbury.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

 
Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale  1m1 minute ago
The #SFGiants officials are more optimistic than 24 hours ago that Jon Lester will pick them, while eagerly waiting final decision.
 

I know NL lineups are weaker and that's alluring to a pitcher.  But Lester always looked completely out of place with a bat in his hand, hates throwing to first on pickoff throws and hates throwing to bases when fielding his position.  I know this isn't the 1968 NL but these little things make him seem less suited to the NL.  But, those weak lineups must look awful tasty.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I know NL lineups are weaker and that's alluring to a pitcher.  But Lester always looked completely out of place with a bat in his hand, hates throwing to first on pickoff throws and hates throwing to bases when fielding his position.  I know this isn't the 1968 NL but these little things make him seem less suited to the NL.  But, those weak lineups must look awful tasty.

 
Are the bolded less frequent for pitchers in the American League?

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I know NL lineups are weaker and that's alluring to a pitcher.  But Lester always looked completely out of place with a bat in his hand, hates throwing to first on pickoff throws and hates throwing to bases when fielding his position.  I know this isn't the 1968 NL but these little things make him seem less suited to the NL.  But, those weak lineups must look awful tasty.

 
Meh, if Bartolo Colon can swing a bat every once in a while, Lester can as well. And if he embarrasses himself doing so, I'm sure the extra $25 million or whatever he gets from that NL team will more than compensate for it.

 

[Leather]

Show your work.

 

 
Don't have to, someone already did it for us:
 
 

What is the right price for Lester?
 
To me, you have to start by setting the bar at what you want in a championship caliber rotation.  With that standard, I classify Lester as usually a very good number 2 who occasionally rises to the occasion and pitches like a number 1 and occasionally regresses to a number 4.  So, I think you want to pay him like a number 2, not a number 1.  The set of recent signings of number 2 quality starters (Sanchez, Kuroda) seems like it is in the $16 to $18 million a season range rather than the $20 million range.  I would limit the years to 6 and hope for only 5 to get it done.
 
So, I think 5/$90 or 6/$105 is what would be a fair deal for both sides.  The leverage is with Lester though, so they'll probably have to go higher.
 

 

[LahoudOrBillyC]

When the Red Sox hold their next parade in a few years, they will look back and realize they dodged a bullet when Jon Lester decided to take someone else's money. Thanks for most of your good years, Jon.

 

[BoSoxLady]

There is a direct quote from Lester that the 6-$144 offer the Tigers gave Scherzer would have been hard to turn down. The "random quote" you mention comes from a Hall of Fame Sportswriter with more connections in the game than the current Boston Globe staff combined.
 

Gammons hasn't broken a story in a decade. These days, he's more like everyone's senile uncle. That said; Lester made the remarks in question during a spring training interview with NESN. Perhaps it was picked up by Gammons along with the dozens of writers who regularly cover the Red Sox.
"Scherzer recently turned down from the Detroit Tigers, according to FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi. Lester, who, like Scherzer, is slated to become a free agent after the 2014 season, didn’t want to speculate on the Tigers ace’s decision when asked about it Wednesday but admitted the offer would look pretty tasty if slapped in front of him. “That stuff is hard to comment on because you don’t know. I’m not him. I don’t ever want to talk bad upon anybody. That’s his decision,” Lester told reporters in Fort Myers on Wednesday. “If he comes in and he takes six years for $40 million, that’s his decision. I’m not going to bad mouth anybody. They have their own beliefs, their own mindset, their own representation and so I mean personally, if that’s me, that’s hard to walk away from. That’s hard to walk away from. “I’m saying in that situation, I think everyone is different. Everybody has different goals, different mindsets, different representation,” Lester added. “They’re telling him one thing and like I said I can’t comment on it because I don’t have it sitting in front of me. If it was sitting in front of me we could talk. It would be tough. Let’s put it that way. It would be tough.” There’s been no indication the Red Sox plan to extend such an offer, and the left-hander didn’t share any specifics Wednesday when asked about the state of his contract negotiations. Lester said he is optimistic that talks between the Red Sox and his agents, Seth and Sam Levinson, are going well, though, and the 30-year-old hurler is open to continuing discussions into the regular season if the sides near a deal in the coming days. “The dialogue has gone well,” Lester said. “The biggest thing is they’re still talking. We know how some of these things go, where guys blow up on each other and things get ended pretty quickly.”http://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/jon_lester_max_scherzer_like_contract_offer_hard_to_walk_away_from/16110298

 

[ivanvamp]

When the Red Sox hold their next parade in a few years, they will look back and realize they dodged a bullet when Jon Lester decided to take someone else's money. Thanks for most of your good years, Jon.

 
I don't know that not signing Lester will contribute to them winning another WS.  But $175 million does seem to be WAY too much for him.  I mean, holy smokes.  He's a terrific pitcher and I want him on the Red Sox.  But 7/175?  For a 30-year old pitcher?  

 

[Darnell's Son]

 
Are the bolded less frequent for pitchers in the American League?

Guessing here, but he may be referring to fielding bunts.

 

[Sportsbstn]

 
I don't know that not signing Lester will contribute to them winning another WS.  But $175 million does seem to be WAY too much for him.  I mean, holy smokes.  He's a terrific pitcher and I want him on the Red Sox.  But 7/175?  For a 30-year old pitcher?  

 
Really 31 year old pitcher by the time he throws a pitch again, as his birthday is in January.  As you said, terrific pitcher, but no thanks at that price

 

[grimshaw]

 
I don't know that not signing Lester will contribute to them winning another WS.  But $175 million does seem to be WAY too much for him.  I mean, holy smokes.  He's a terrific pitcher and I want him on the Red Sox.  But 7/175?  For a 30-year old pitcher?  

31 next month even.
They were speculating last night on MLBN that the 7 year deal was from the Dodgers to protect themselves from the Greinke opt out.
Joel Sherman (I believe) stated that the Dodgers were the only team not to wine and dine him, so maybe they think the extra year will entice him.

 

[Plympton91]

If Lester is getting 6/$150 or perhaps 7/$175, then I'm not sure there are any possibilities that don't suck. Hamels excess value is now at least $40 million to Boston, and to a team that isn't on his no-trade list, and thus that can't be forced to pick up his option, that would be excess value of $60 to $70 million. And who's to say Hamels will waive his no trade protection just to get his option picked up? Why wouldn't Hamels demand a full renegotiation of his contract to Lester levels in return for waiving his no trade? There's a huge dynamic there in that he could end up traded to a team that he would be stuck at 4/$90 instead, but those teams should be willing to offer a much better package of prospects than Boston.

Who's left? Zimmerman, Cuetto as legit aces. Can you get them without including Betts? Latos as next tier. And dreck that shouldn't be better than a #3 on a championship roster (like any pitcher with stats from San Diego National Park), but will cost prospects or inflated contracts, like the rumored deal to Masterson.

 

[Montana Fan]

Gammons hasn't broken a story in a decade. These days, he's more like everyone's senile uncle.

That may be but I attended 1 professional baseball game this year. It was a Mets preseason game in PSL. Down in front right behind home plate was Gammo sitting next to Sandy Alderson. They were together the whole game and chatted throughout. He may not be breaking news but I have no doubt that he's locked into what's going on.

 

[TomRicardo]

If Lester is getting 6/$150 or perhaps 7/$175, then I'm not sure there are any possibilities that don't suck. Hamels excess value is now at least $40 million to Boston, and to a team that isn't on his no-trade list, and thus that can't be forced to pick up his option, that would be excess value of $60 to $70 million. And who's to say Hamels will waive his no trade protection just to get his option picked up? Why wouldn't Hamels demand a full renegotiation of his contract to Lester levels in return for waiving his no trade? There's a huge dynamic there in that he could end up traded to a team that he would be stuck at 4/$90 instead, but those teams should be willing to offer a much better package of prospects than Boston.

Who's left? Zimmerman, Cuetto as legit aces. Can you get them without including Betts? Latos as next tier. And dreck that shouldn't be better than a #3 on a championship roster (like any pitcher with stats from San Diego National Park), but will cost prospects or inflated contracts, like the rumored deal to Masterson.

 
 
How is Masterson an inflated contract on a one year deal?
 
I think you missed Porcello.

 

[ehaz]

If Lester is getting 6/$150 or perhaps 7/$175, then I'm not sure there are any possibilities that don't suck. Hamels excess value is now at least $40 million to Boston, and to a team that isn't on his no-trade list, and thus that can't be forced to pick up his option, that would be excess value of $60 to $70 million. And who's to say Hamels will waive his no trade protection just to get his option picked up? Why wouldn't Hamels demand a full renegotiation of his contract to Lester levels in return for waiving his no trade? There's a huge dynamic there in that he could end up traded to a team that he would be stuck at 4/$90 instead, but those teams should be willing to offer a much better package of prospects than Boston.

Who's left? Zimmerman, Cuetto as legit aces. Can you get them without including Betts? Latos as next tier. And dreck that shouldn't be better than a #3 on a championship roster (like any pitcher with stats from San Diego National Park), but will cost prospects or inflated contracts, like the rumored deal to Masterson.

 
Adding to that point, if you wait until they're free agents they'll each be one year younger than Lester but commanding Scherzer money ++.  Not many ways to acquire that sort of pitching anymore unless you develop and keep your own.

 

[OnWisc]

If Lester is getting 6/$150 or perhaps 7/$175, then I'm not sure there are any possibilities that don't suck. Hamels excess value is now at least $40 million to Boston, and to a team that isn't on his no-trade list, and thus that can't be forced to pick up his option, that would be excess value of $60 to $70 million. And who's to say Hamels will waive his no trade protection just to get his option picked up? Why wouldn't Hamels demand a full renegotiation of his contract to Lester levels in return for waiving his no trade? There's a huge dynamic there in that he could end up traded to a team that he would be stuck at 4/$90 instead, but those teams should be willing to offer a much better package of prospects than Boston.

Who's left? Zimmerman, Cuetto as legit aces. Can you get them without including Betts? Latos as next tier. And dreck that shouldn't be better than a #3 on a championship roster (like any pitcher with stats from San Diego National Park), but will cost prospects or inflated contracts, like the rumored deal to Masterson.

If Hamels demanded a full renegotiation from any team on his no-trade list, that would effectively eliminate any team on his no-trade list (as nobody's giving Amaro any value to turn around and pay market for Hamels). All that accomplishes for Hamels is ensuring that he won't have the opportunity to force anyone to pick up his option. From a financial standpoint, he doesn't want to take any stance that discourages teams on his no-trade list from engaging Amaro.

 

[JimD]

Who's left? Zimmerman, Cuetto as legit aces. Can you get them without including Betts? Latos as next tier. And dreck that shouldn't be better than a #3 on a championship roster (like any pitcher with stats from San Diego National Park), but will cost prospects or inflated contracts, like the rumored deal to Masterson.

 
I'd rather the Sox pursue a stopgap for 2015 and try and give Cueto the big bucks than pay Lester $175 million.  This is not a GFIN year.

 

[sean1562]

which teams can afford to give out Scherzer+ money next offseason? Who would you give it to? Price, Zimmermann, Cueto and Samardizja? And then Latos etc get smaller James Shields esque deals? Who signs these guys to massive long term deals? Are the Red Sox going to be the only big market team without a very expensive pitcher? Which would you rather have? One of those guys beginning next season, or Lester now? I think, outside maybe samardzija, those pitchers are better than Lester. 

 

[SoxFanInPdx]

I'd top out at 6/162 (AAV of $27mill). I just don't see an alternative of getting a Tier 1 pitcher without giving up the prospects we all want to keep in this organization.

 

[Otis Foster]

I'm coming around to sean1562's suggestion. It all depends on w/n 2015 is a GFIN or recovery year.
 
You'll never hear a recovery suggestion from BC, but I'm guessing they continue to discuss it internally.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'm coming around to sean1562's suggestion. It all depends on w/n 2015 is a GFIN or recovery year.
 
You'll never hear a recovery suggestion from BC, but I'm guessing they continue to discuss it internally.

 
There is a ton of space between GFIN and recovery. The Red Sox appear to be aiming for the middle where they are competitive year in and year out for a good run of 4 or 5 seasons without pushing all of their chips to the center of the table at any point, and without punting on a year, publicly or otherwise.
 
That could mean Lester has gotten too expensive without the Sox having to just give up on 2015. Nothing would stop them from going with Shields as their big free agent pitcher signing this winter and also targeting one of the big names next year.

 

[Otis Foster]

 
There is a ton of space between GFIN and recovery. The Red Sox appear to be aiming for the middle where they are competitive year in and year out for a good run of 4 or 5 seasons without pushing all of their chips to the center of the table at any point, and without punting on a year, publicly or otherwise.
 
That could mean Lester has gotten too expensive without the Sox having to just give up on 2015. Nothing would stop them from going with Shields as their big free agent pitcher signing this winter and also targeting one of the big names next year.

 
Agreed, i[SIZE=14.4444446563721px]n retrospect, recovery isn't the only alternative to GFIN,[/SIZE] but my point was a little different - that they'd save the very big bucks for the 2016 crop of FAs. 

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

 
I'd rather the Sox pursue a stopgap for 2015 and try and give Cueto the big bucks than pay Lester $175 million.  This is not a GFIN year.

 
What has GFIN status to do with anything - they are trying to sign Lester for six years not one .. unless you think he is going to suck in Year #2 of the contract

 

[doc]

I'd top out at 6/162 (AAV of $27mill). I just don't see an alternative of getting a Tier 1 pitcher without giving up the prospects we all want to keep in this organization.

So you don't get a tier 1 pitcher, you get a bunch of tier 2's, build a lights out bullpen and slug the crap out of the ball.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

which teams can afford to give out Scherzer+ money next offseason? Who would you give it to? Price, Zimmermann, Cueto and Samardizja? And then Latos etc get smaller James Shields esque deals? Who signs these guys to massive long term deals? Are the Red Sox going to be the only big market team without a very expensive pitcher? Which would you rather have? One of those guys beginning next season, or Lester now? I think, outside maybe samardzija, those pitchers are better than Lester. 

 
We should pass on Lester if we don't feel the value is there.  But I think this perspective on next offseason is a little optimistic.  There are at least three other teams ready to give big bucks to Lester and two of those won't get him.  Then you also have the Yankees, the Nationals probably being in on Zimmerman or a replacement, the Angels seeing Wilson and Weaver coming off the books to the tune of $40M in 2016 and perhaps jumping in a year early, etc.
 
The bottom line is that you should pursue value in all transactions but forecasting some kind of disjuncture between supply and demand in the high end pitching market, especially with the money sloshing around the league these days, is probably wishful thinking.  There will be plenty of other suitors and we'll have to pay through the nose for a guy like Price, Zimmerman, or Cueto, who (barring injury) will all almost certainly get at least as much as Lester and probably more.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

We should pass on Lester if we don't feel the value is there.  But I think this perspective on next offseason is a little optimistic.  There are at least three other teams ready to give big bucks to Lester and two of those won't get him.  Then you also have the Yankees, the Nationals probably being in on Zimmerman or a replacement, the Angels seeing Wilson and Weaver coming off the books to the tune of $40M in 2016 and perhaps jumping in a year early, etc.
 
The bottom line is that you should pursue value in all transactions but forecasting some kind of disjuncture between supply and demand in the high end pitching market, especially with the money sloshing around the league these days, is probably wishful thinking.  There will be plenty of other suitors and we'll have to pay through the nose for a guy like Price, Zimmerman, or Cueto, who (barring injury) will all almost certainly get at least as much as Lester and probably more.

There are also at least two more frontline starters on the market right now that the Lester runners-up can go after.  It isn't Lester or bust/2016 for the Red Sox or anyone else.  Someone's consolation prize is going to be Max Scherzer or James Shields.  Could even be the Red Sox grabbing one of those guys.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

There are also at least two more frontline starters on the market right now that the Lester runners-up can go after.  It isn't Lester or bust/2016 for the Red Sox or anyone else.  Someone's consolation prize is going to be Max Scherzer or James Shields.  Could even be the Red Sox grabbing one of those guys.

 
Sure, but some of the involved teams could end up signing more than one of these guys, or there are many other teams that might get involved next offseason.  There is tons of money in baseball.  The idea that Cueto or Zimmerman is going to fall into our lap on a relative bargain deal because nobody else wants to sign them is pretty optimistic, putting it kindly.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
Sure, but some of the involved teams could end up signing more than one of these guys, or there are many other teams that might get involved next offseason.  There is tons of money in baseball.  The idea that Cueto or Zimmerman is going to fall into our lap on a relative bargain deal because nobody else wants to sign them is pretty optimistic, putting it kindly.

 
Who's saying that though?  The point people are making is that if Lester goes elsewhere, there are other avenues to pursue.  I don't think anyone believes someone's going to fall into anyone's lap on a relative bargain unless some unknown emerges from nowhere to become an elite pitcher.

 

[koufax37]

I think I'm happy to leave the Lester table, and expect one of the lucky four teams to get the Winner's Curse.
 
Top ten pitching contracts signed before the 2013 season (not going to comment too soon on anything newer) include:
 
Sabathia, Zito, Santana, Hampton, Cliff Lee.  All lefties, all talented pitchers, and all bad contracts by the end or well before.
 
The other five are:

Greinke which is fine now and he will take his opt out so we won't know about year 6
Verlander...ooops.  Elite to okay way too fast
Cain...will wait and see, but didn't love his 2014 for the champs
Felix...I think he lives up to his like Pedro's first big contract, especially at only five years, so this is the one in ten that seems most likely to be good.
 
I view 6/150 as a somewhat fiscally irresponsible but maybe worth considering ceiling, and I fully expect him to land more than that.  The opportunity cost of bringing Lester back in this environment seems too severe.  If it is 2015 we really care about, I understand the desire to have him back, but dealing some prospects is likely to be a better way to improve if we want to mortgage the future a little to win now.
 
The baggage of a bad contract in a few years, especially if the inflationary TV revenues/salary reality slows as I expect it will just doesn't seem to make sense to us being the best team we can be.

 

[LahoudOrBillyC]

Lester is about to sign the Mike Hampton/Barry Zito contract of the decade.  Hopefully the Red Sox can avoid holding the bag.  The sooner they can back to improving their team, the better.  The pitching staff will be improved, hopefully a different way.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Verducci with interesting thoughts on Lester here (http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/12/09/jon-lester-winter-meetings-oakland-billy-beane-hall-fame):
 
A snippet:
 
"Whichever teams winds up winning the bidding for Jon Lester will get a very good pitcher and a very bad contract. Combine a bidding war between three high-profile, big-market teams — the Cubs, Giants and Red Sox — and a durable pitcher who is available without having to give up talent or draft picks, and you get a recipe for overpayment. It's bound to end poorly.
It's foolish to give a pitcher in the Testing Era a six- or seven-year contract that begins with his age-31 season. In fact, it's so foolish it's never been done before. The history of such contracts even for younger pitchers all but assures Lester's new team will get poor value for the length of its investment. But with Lester looming as the kind of pitcher who can make a difference for one year and one championship, clubs have lined up to buy this veritable lottery ticket."

 
As the price and years have gone up, this is starting to get unsettling. I know he's our guy, but the contract demands are bordering on insane given his age. Godspeed Lester, I hope you cash in somewhere else. 

 

[E5 Yaz]

Lester is about to sign the Mike Hampton/Barry Zito contract of the decade.  Hopefully the Red Sox can avoid holding the bag.  The sooner they can back to improving their team, the better.  The pitching staff will be improved, hopefully a different way.

 
 

 
As the price and years have gone up, this is starting to get unsettling. I know he's our guy, but the contract demands are bordering on insane given his age. Godspeed Lester, I hope you cash in somewhere else. 

 
Is the difference between Lester, and what the Red Sox can do to replace him, so great that it's worth risking the back end of a 6-7 year contract? I know ... because prospects. But at some point these things have to make sense short and long-term.

 

[threecy]

I am a broken record.  So maybe I should stop posting this.  But…..
 
1.  Sign Shields.  He'll come a lot cheaper.  He's very solid.  Not a great playoff guy, but oh well.  Worth a 4-year deal.  He'll be very good here.
 
2.  Sign McCarthy.  Again, not a CYA winner, but a pretty solid pitcher.
 
3.  Trade Cespedes + prospect for Porcello.  
 
4.  Sign Masterson.  May get a lottery ticket there.  
 
5.  Shore up the bullpen.
 
Shields, McCarthy, Porcello, Buchholz, Kelly/Masterson.  The kids are ready at a moment's notice to be in the pen or to help the rotation.  That's a very solid, if not spectacular, rotation.  If we get good Masterson and good Clay, it's a *great* rotation.  And all without the long-term albatross kind of contract.

 
Especially with the 1 game play-in setup, I think it may be a disadvantage to not have an elite starter or two when trying to build a contender.

 

[smastroyin]

Lester is about to sign the Mike Hampton/Barry Zito contract of the decade.  Hopefully the Red Sox can avoid holding the bag.  The sooner they can back to improving their team, the better.  The pitching staff will be improved, hopefully a different way.

 
On the other hand, the Giants have won 2 World Series while holding the bag on Zito.  Last year they were holding the bag on Lincecum and Cain.
 
This is to say that I think we tend to overblow the negative effects of holding the bag.  Especially for a team with the resources of the Red Sox.
 
Of course the endgame of this thought is that you just pay anything for anyone and not care, and I don't want to espouse that idea.  I just don't think it's the end of the world either way.  If Lester goes elsewhere, not the end of the world.  If the Red Sox choose to overpay Lester, not the end of the world, even if Lester pitches like 2012 for the life of the contract.