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Keeping the Sky Up. What is going right?

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by In my lifetime, Apr 19, 2019.

  1. In my lifetime

    In my lifetime Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    907
    I just can't read all these negative posts any longer.

    I know it is difficult, but please refrain from posting here: nothing, not much, etc. You have about 5 other threads in which to wax poetically of all that ails the RS.

    So in anticipation of a long winning streak, I sure hope the thread gets long.

    For starters:
    ERod's last start
    Eovaldi's last start
    Price's last start
    Sale's velocity
    The bullpen has been betteer than expected
    Barnes has stepped up
    JD continues to be a hitting machine
    X
    Mooreland
    Benintendi and hopefully his return to the lineup
    Even Christian V has done more at the plate than expected
     
  2. Mueller's Twin Grannies

    Mueller's Twin Grannies Member SoSH Member

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    3,983
    I wouldn't limit it to just Price's last start; he's been one of the more consistent pitchers since the start of the season.
     
  3. oumbi

    oumbi Member SoSH Member

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    2,055
    And looking towards the farm, the future, perhaps even this season:

    Durbin Feltman is doing well in AA ball. In his last three outings he has gone 3 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 0 BB, 5 Ks. He threw 36 pitches in those innings, of which 23 were strikes, 8 swinging and 6 looking.

    Darwinzon Hernandez is also doing well. In two outings he has gone 5 innings each, a total of 10 innings with and ERA of 0.82. He has 15 Ks (SO9 = 13.5), though 7 walks.
     
  4. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    31,494
    And Chavis, who was just called up
     
  5. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    58,947
    They'll be three threads trashing him within a week
     
  6. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    31,494
    He's already making me enjoy next year less.
     
  7. In my lifetime

    In my lifetime Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    907
    Streak is at 1.
    Betts has a good game at the plate
    Mitch and Vasquez continue hitting
    The bullpen pitches 3 2/3 innings without giving up a hit
     
  8. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    33,621
    The Curse of Sandy Leon has been reversed.
     
  9. sean1562

    sean1562 Member SoSH Member

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    2,210
    Does Vaz have a new approach? He has more HRs this year than all of last year.
     
  10. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    18,016
    Ryan Brasier appears to be for real.
     
  11. pantsparty

    pantsparty Member SoSH Member

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    332
    Devers' 3B defense looks better this year, probably thanks to his focus on conditioning during the offseason.
     
  12. RorschachsMask

    RorschachsMask Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    471
    Matt Barnes control has drastically improved. Even tonight he gave up the homer, but he threw 13 of 17 for strikes.

    Think tonight pushes his k/9 to somewhere over 18, and he still has only walked 1 guy in 8.1 innings.
     
  13. twibnotes

    twibnotes Member SoSH Member

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    17,647
    Continued excellence from JDM at the dish
     
  14. WheresDewey

    WheresDewey lurker

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    42
    It's April. Sox will be in the hunt come September, despite the dreary start to the season.
     
  15. Byrdbrain

    Byrdbrain Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    8,232
    I did see somewhere that he is going with a more "all or nothing" approach. Many more swings and misses but also more power.
    So far it seems like a good trade.

    The season is far from over, the team is too good to play this bad all year.
     
  16. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    10,376
    Too right. I can't see how two wins, on the road against the first place team in the division, can't be seen as a step in the right direction.
     
  17. Sandy Leon Trotsky

    Sandy Leon Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    2,164
    Definitely a step in the right direction. We’ll see how they deal with the injury to Eovaldi (I’m guessing valezquez).... but first series win against first place team is great, yeah?
     
  18. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    20,911
    I know this is a positive vibes thread... but what??
     
  19. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    1,397
    Many more swings and misses, yes, but also fewer swings in general? He's whiffing more, but more selective and pulling the ball like crazy (by his standards).

    Chase % (FG):
    17: 32.2
    18: 34.7
    19: 25.3

    Pull %:
    17: 29.1
    18: 33.2
    19: 47.4

    Barrels/PA (Statcast):
    17: 2.7
    18: 1.9
    19: 7.9

    He's also had some incredibly bad BABIP luck so far (.206 — career mark .289). That .224/.255/.531 line isn't sparkling, but if he continues this pace over a full season (roughly 450-500 PAs), he'd be a 4-win catcher.
     
  20. Byrdbrain

    Byrdbrain Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    8,232
    Thanks for doing the research that I should have.
     
  21. donutogre

    donutogre Member SoSH Member

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    1,526
    Porcello pitched like a functional pitcher last night. Kept the walks down and gave the team a win. Given how the rotation has looked, this is a big step forward.
     
  22. charlieoscar

    charlieoscar Member

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    1,339
    There are 141 games left in the regular season. In order for the pitching staff to reach the same number of wins as last season's did, they would need to finish at a .709 rate (115-41). Also, the team would need to have an AVG five points higher, an OBP five points higher, and an SLG ten points higher for the remainder of the season to bring up those marks to last year's team's rates.

    While it is possible for the team to turn things around in the remaining games but there is some suggestion in a recent SABR article that even as early as game 16 there is some statistically significant evidence that teams over or below league average at that point remain so. My personal opinion of the article is that the study needs to be expanded (from just 2013-17) and the presentations (graphs) needs to be improved. Also, it would be interesting to look at the data on a team by team basis.
     
  23. Byrdbrain

    Byrdbrain Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    8,232
    They aren't going to win the same amount of games as they won last year and I never said they would.
    I have no doubt that SABR article is generally correct as far as it goes but there are always outliers in any study.
    This team won the freaking world series last year for christ sakes.
     
  24. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    48,542
    He does look slimmer out there.
     
  25. charlieoscar

    charlieoscar Member

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    1,339
    I simply suggested that they would have a lot of trouble playing anywhere near the level they played last year.
     
  26. In my lifetime

    In my lifetime Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    907
    3-0 since the start of the thread.
    First sweep of the year and now instead of 8 back, the RS sit 5 back.
    Price continues to pitch well
    The bullpen gives up only 2 hits and one run in 6 innings of work
    Moreland goes deep again for his 7th of the year
    Benintendi collects a pair of hits
    Betts is starting to hit this series
    Vasquez had an excellent series all the way around. Even though not hitting for much average, he is getting key hits and showing decent power.
    Nice display of small ball in the 11th
    Fielding has been much better lately including Devers who has made some nice plays at third.
    Now let's see if Sale has found some answers tomorrow
     
  27. Soxfan in Fla

    Soxfan in Fla Member SoSH Member

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    6,990
    I know it’s April but you don’t want to fall into too big of a hole. Was important to win this series.
     
  28. The Filthy One

    The Filthy One Member SoSH Member

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    Worth noting as well that the Sox have played 6 home games so far, compared to 13 for Tampa and 16 for NY. Let’s see where the team is after this next homestand.
     
  29. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    10,181
    And 11 west coast games in the rear view mirror.
     
  30. uncannymanny

    uncannymanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    6,008
    The early season schedule for the Sox is criminal. Hopefully they’re able to take advantage down the road.
     
  31. dhappy42

    dhappy42 Straw Man

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    5,639
    If the Sox play .650 ball from here on out, they’ll win 100 games.
     
  32. Sandy Leon Trotsky

    Sandy Leon Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    2,164
    I always think shooting for a .500 road record and a .666 home record is a realistic base line. That’s 95 wins for a year.... if they play that percentageforvthevremainder of the season it puts them at 91 wins. Likely good enough for the WC game

    Edit- drinking all day and night again
     
  33. Byrdbrain

    Byrdbrain Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    8,232
    That went well I think.

    Edit: Not in GoT thread so nevermind.
     
  34. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    16,735
    besides Eovaldi they've been healthy. the Yankees have been extremely unhealthy. the win number for the division is very up in the air right now.

    fixed. 5 games back is so much more preferable to 7.
     
  35. dhappy42

    dhappy42 Straw Man

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    5,639
    Pedroia, Holt and Núñez aren’t healthy.
     
  36. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    That's an interesting metric you've got there
     
  37. MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

    MyDaughterLovesTomGordon Member SoSH Member

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    8,033
    It's like he's been studying with eastern mystics.
     
  38. charlieoscar

    charlieoscar Member

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    1,339
    Assuming the comment included Sunday's game, then it seems to be reasonably accurate as the Red Sox have 75 home games (two-thirds of 75 = 50) and 65 road games (half of 65 = 32.5) remaining.
    50 + 32.5 + the 9 wins they already have is 91.5.
     
  39. Sandy Leon Trotsky

    Sandy Leon Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    2,164
    Thanks. I thought I was going crazy
     
  40. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    33,621
    There should be assigned reading for new members of SoSH, including the Manilla Metric
     
  41. Pandarama

    Pandarama lurker

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    62
    Wel done, sir.
     
  42. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,621
    Manilla is the plain flavored version of Manila.

    Screw it,

    [​IMG]
     
  43. DeadlySplitter

    DeadlySplitter Member SoSH Member

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    16,735
    well, never mind all that progression on keeping the division in sight.
     
  44. Rough Carrigan

    Rough Carrigan reasons within Reason Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    18,810
    What's going right? They shat their pants on a day when all the attention is going to be on the Bruins winning game 7. Brilliant!
     
  45. Papo The Snow Tiger

    Papo The Snow Tiger lurker

    Messages:
    662
    No one's been hit by a flying piece of pizza or missed a team flight yet.
     
  46. charlieoscar

    charlieoscar Member

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    1,339
    As of 23 April:
    7-10 Pawtucket
    4-10 Portland
    6-12 Salem
    7-10 Greenville
    ------
    24-42
     
  47. Patek's 3 Dingers

    Patek's 3 Dingers lurker

    Messages:
    84

    The minor leagues exist for the development of players so I don't believe W/L records matter. If there were 1-2 top 100 prospects on each team, the Sox would have a great farm system.
     
  48. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

    Messages:
    1,397
    Some interesting peripheral numbers from Mitch Moreland so far (from Statcast):

    Zone Contact %:
    17: 83.1
    18: 81.8
    19: 75.9

    Chase %:
    17: 27.3
    18: 24.9
    19: 23.8

    Hard Hit %:
    17: 36.3
    18: 44.1
    19: 52.8

    Pull % / Oppo %:
    17: 32.6 / 25.2
    18: 38.1 / 22.8
    19: 49.1 / 11.3

    Shift (MLB rank):
    17: 76.8 (5th)
    18: 68 (22nd)
    19: 82.4 (12th)

    Moreland has been one of the most shifted-on guys in the league for awhile. Some of those guys (defined here as LHH shifted on in >50 percent of PA) I'm seeing no appreciable difference in approach from previous years, but others seem to be trying different strategies this year.

    One group seems to be trying to beat the shift by going to the opposite field more (Rizzo, Schwarber, Muncy, Shaw, Freeman, Morales vs. RHP, Jose Ramirez vs. RHP, Bird, Bruce, Winker, Duda, Alex Gordon, Granderson). For the most part, that strategy hasn't worked especially well. (Freeman is an exception, though his power numbers are down. It's harder to tell what's up with Gordon).

    The other group has seemed to ditch the strategy of going the other way in favor of trying to absolutely murder the ball to right. Among those, a good number of them have seen increases in strikeout rate that negate the gains they're seeing from hitting the ball harder (Odor, Thames, Matt Adams, Chris Davis).

    But a third group — or a subset of the second group — has done the same while keeping their K rates stable. These guys — Joey Gallo, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Omar Narvaez, Tommy La Stella, Eddie Rosario, and Mitch Moreland — are having excellent Aprils. I can't really tell if it's a true difference in approach or if he's just on one of his hot streaks (and there's probably more going on than what I can see here), but Moreland seems to be a guy with enough plate discipline to sustain a swing-for-the-fences approach. It's led to a few more whiffs, but he's also chasing and getting fooled a lot less.
     
  49. charlieoscar

    charlieoscar Member

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    1,339
    When the minor league teams are all producing winning percentages like those, you wonder just how many prospects they have. And you also have players who look good at lower levels who don't make the step up. One of the club's big problems has been they haven't been able to develop pitchers for a number of years.
     
  50. CanvasAlley

    CanvasAlley lurker

    Messages:
    26
    This is an excellent analysis of Mitch Moreland and wonder if his new approach reflects some degree of hitting mentorship JDM is providing this team.
     

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