JoKe

teddywingman

Looks like Zach Galifianakis
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a basement on the hill
I just want everyone to know Joe pitched a huge 2 outs (by K) in the 8th inning last night.

Edit: Highest leverage situation of the game. He entered with bases loaded and one out.
 

Rasputin

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If he really has his shit together, we've got a heck of a bullpen and if Thornburg is actually effective in his return, potentially a dominant bullpen.
 

section15

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Bradford, MA and section 15
Chatted with him at Winter Weekend - very briefly - he had a "DIPG" wristband - DIPG is a rare, incurable brain tumor in children - a friend puts together "ExposFest" in Montreal every year as a fundraiser and my wife and I attend. He remarked "not too many people know about it"...
 

joe dokes

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I wonder if his consistent success is related in anyway to letting his personality out. Buchanan in ST; Austin; sitting in the stands during his suspension.
It's a long season and a team needs some characters.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
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The wrong side of the bridge....
Last night's stint was one of the most impressive clutch performances by a Red Sox reliever I've ever seen--at least in the regular season. Bases loaded, one out vs. one of the most explosive hitters around, trying to hold an 8th-inning tie on the road--he had to get the strikeout, and did, with a perfectly located, tempting-but-unhittable 98.6 mph upstairs fastball. And then proceeded to neutralize a heroic AB by Profar with a pitch that should be bookmarked for the next time anyone asks you what "painting the corner" means.

Over his last 20 appearances, dating back to last September 15, Kelly has faced 84 batters, and gotten 65 of them out. Of the other 19, only two have managed more than a single, walk, or HBP. No one has gone deep. His wOBA allowed over this stretch is .188.

Dare we stop wondering when he's going to put it together?
 

joe dokes

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Last night's stint was one of the most impressive clutch performances by a Red Sox reliever I've ever seen--at least in the regular season. Bases loaded, one out vs. one of the most explosive hitters around, trying to hold an 8th-inning tie on the road--he had to get the strikeout, and did, with a perfectly located, tempting-but-unhittable 98.6 mph upstairs fastball. And then proceeded to neutralize a heroic AB by Profar with a pitch that should be bookmarked for the next time anyone asks you what "painting the corner" means.
I was thinking Alan Embree vs. the Twins in '02.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN200208170.shtml (some great names here......ortiz, mientk., kielty, and then there's AJP)

Bottom of the 7th, Twins Batting, Behind 0-3, Red Sox' Tim Wakefield facing 4-5-6
b7
0-3 0 --- 4,(1-2)
MIN David Ortiz Tim Wakefield -7% 79% Double (Line Drive to CF-RF)
b7 0-3 0 -2- 1,(0-0)
MIN Torii Hunter Tim Wakefield -10% 70% Single to LF (Line Drive); Ortiz to 3B
b7 0-3 0 1-3 3,(2-0)
MIN Doug Mientkiewicz Tim Wakefield -2% 67% Hunter Steals 2B
b7 0-3 0 -23 4,(3-0)
MIN Doug Mientkiewicz Tim Wakefield -6% 61% Walk


Bob Howry replaces Tim Wakefield pitching
b7 0-3 0 123 4,(3-0) R MIN Dustan Mohr Bob Howry -15% 47% Walk; Ortiz Scores; Hunter to 3B; Mientkiewicz to 2B


Alan Embree replaces Bob Howry pitching

b7 1-3 0 123 5,(1-2) O MIN A.J. Pierzynski Alan Embree 12% 59% Strikeout Swinging

b7 1-3 1 123 6,(1-2) O MIN Luis Rivas Alan Embree 13% 72% Strikeout Swinging
Bobby Kielty pinch hits for Jacque Jones (LF) batting 1st

b7 1-3 2 123 5,(2-2) O MIN Bobby Kielty Alan Embree 14% 86% Strikeout Swinging
 

MikeM

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Last night's stint was one of the most impressive clutch performances by a Red Sox reliever I've ever seen--at least in the regular season. Bases loaded, one out vs. one of the most explosive hitters around, trying to hold an 8th-inning tie on the road--he had to get the strikeout, and did, with a perfectly located, tempting-but-unhittable 98.6 mph upstairs fastball. And then proceeded to neutralize a heroic AB by Profar with a pitch that should be bookmarked for the next time anyone asks you what "painting the corner" means.

Over his last 20 appearances, dating back to last September 15, Kelly has faced 84 batters, and gotten 65 of them out. Of the other 19, only two have managed more than a single, walk, or HBP. No one has gone deep. His wOBA allowed over this stretch is .188.

Dare we stop wondering when he's going to put it together?
I actually was pointing this out last night to the 2 people who attended this year's opening day game against Tampa with me, and haven't shut up with the "Joke" Kelly comments since.

Of course I'd have personally waited until after this upcoming series against NY before daring to make that type of proclamation in print.
 

brandonchristensen

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We have that Daniel Bard insane K gif for a reason.

But I could see them bring JoKe back. Is there any chance he could replace Kimbrel? Craig is going to cost a lot and I don’t know if we have that for him. JoKe has swagger, loves the team and culture, and is quickly becoming a fan favorite. Not to mention his stuff is sick. Now that he’s using his off speed to set up his fast ball he’s been night and day.
 

Reverend

for king and country
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I wonder if his consistent success is related in anyway to letting his personality out. Buchanan in ST; Austin; sitting in the stands during his suspension.
It's a long season and a team needs some characters.
I've been harboring a suspicion that Cora turned to him to be one of these guys.

Super Conspiracy Theory: That's the real reason Vaz didn't get between him and the hitter[hittee].
 

JimD

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Kelly going to the game during his suspension and sitting stands was awesome. Him moving around constantly depending on how the team was doing was even awesome-r. One more reason to root for a great year and a competitive postseason for this crew.
 

Rasputin

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I'm pretty sure he does (have his shit together.) He has a great arsenal, and now he has confidence.
I very much hope you're right.

Kelly and Barnes have both been great. Hopefully Smith gets straightened out also.
Right now a post-season bullpen of Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes isn't bad. If any one of Carson Smith, Thornburg, or even Jalen Beeks step up a bit, the difference between the Yankee bullpen and ours could be very, very small.
 

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory
I very much hope you're right.



Right now a post-season bullpen of Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes isn't bad. If any one of Carson Smith, Thornburg, or even Jalen Beeks step up a bit, the difference between the Yankee bullpen and ours could be very, very small.
I still think they need to go out and trade for an 8th inning reliever that is better than any of the current guys besides Kimbrel. If you slot in an Addison Reed-type ahead of Barnes/Kelly/Smith that's the makings of a good playoff bullpen.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Kelly's game log 2018

G1: 0.1 ip, 1 h, 4 r, 4 er, 3 bb, 1 k, 108.00 era, 12.0 whip

Gs 2-15: 15.1 ip, 7 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 16 k, 0.00 era, 0.59 whip

I mean, other than the first game of the year, he's been unbelievably good.
 

teddywingman

Looks like Zach Galifianakis
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Jul 31, 2009
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a basement on the hill
Last night he had a little less command than in most of his recent appearances, but he wasn't the Wild Thing Joe Kelly that we used to see. Tough spot in Yankee Stadium against the heart of their order with an energized crowd. He could have done worse... like Kimbrel tonight.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
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Dec 22, 2002
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Kelly's game log 2018

G1: 0.1 ip, 1 h, 4 r, 4 er, 3 bb, 1 k, 108.00 era, 12.0 whip

Gs 2-15: 15.1 ip, 7 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 16 k, 0.00 era, 0.59 whip

I mean, other than the first game of the year, he's been unbelievably good.
Not including the first game, he's now at 23.1ip, 10h, 1r, 1er, 1hbp, 6bb/25k. 0.73 whip. .130/.202/.143. Hitters have an ISO of .013 against Joe Kelly, due to only 1 xbh, a double.

Striking more guys out while walking less of them, while reverting to his old GB rate he had in St. Louis and his first few appearances here after the Lackey trade.

GB rates
12: 1.09
13: 1.05
14: 1.25 (1.19 STL, 1.29 BOS)
15: 0.86
16: 0.92
17: 1.04
18: 1.21


If he keeps this up all year, does the Lackey trade become a good trade?
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't think we're there quite yet, but keep in mind that while SoSH game threaders hated on him all last year, he put up a 165 ERA+.
Preaching to the choir. He had a lucky April in 2017 but terrible peripherals. In his first 13.1 ip last year, he had 8bb and 5k with an era of 2.70. From May on: 44.2ip, 33h, 19bb/47k, 2.82 era, .205/.290/.292 slash line with 183 batters face.

If you look at his overall 2017, it looks a bit lucky but he also completely changed his pitch selection last year so ignoring the first month for adjustment seems fair rather than cherry picking. If you do ignore his first month, it starts to look more like a good season than a lucky one.

I also broke down his minor league performance and major league performance to date prior to last season with his splits as a starter and MR. His numbers were surprisingly much better in MR despite the common (and wrong) belief that his stuff didn't really play up in the pen.

Kinda sucks they waited so long to convert him to MR, but maybe that helped him develop as a pitcher. Of course now, he's probably priced himself out of our range a la Andrew Miller.
 

chawson

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I think at this point, strangely, he’s the likeliest of our three impending free agent pitchers to return.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Preaching to the choir. He had a lucky April in 2017 but terrible peripherals. In his first 13.1 ip last year, he had 8bb and 5k with an era of 2.70. From May on: 44.2ip, 33h, 19bb/47k, 2.82 era, .205/.290/.292 slash line with 183 batters face.

If you look at his overall 2017, it looks a bit lucky but he also completely changed his pitch selection last year so ignoring the first month for adjustment seems fair rather than cherry picking. If you do ignore his first month, it starts to look more like a good season than a lucky one.

I also broke down his minor league performance and major league performance to date prior to last season with his splits as a starter and MR. His numbers were surprisingly much better in MR despite the common (and wrong) belief that his stuff didn't really play up in the pen.

Kinda sucks they waited so long to convert him to MR, but maybe that helped him develop as a pitcher. Of course now, he's probably priced himself out of our range a la Andrew Miller.
Unless they think he can close. He'll certainly be cheaper than Kimbrel.
 

teddywingman

Looks like Zach Galifianakis
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Jul 31, 2009
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a basement on the hill
Preaching to the choir. He had a lucky April in 2017 but terrible peripherals. In his first 13.1 ip last year, he had 8bb and 5k with an era of 2.70. From May on: 44.2ip, 33h, 19bb/47k, 2.82 era, .205/.290/.292 slash line with 183 batters face.

If you look at his overall 2017, it looks a bit lucky but he also completely changed his pitch selection last year so ignoring the first month for adjustment seems fair rather than cherry picking. If you do ignore his first month, it starts to look more like a good season than a lucky one.

I also broke down his minor league performance and major league performance to date prior to last season with his splits as a starter and MR. His numbers were surprisingly much better in MR despite the common (and wrong) belief that his stuff didn't really play up in the pen.

Kinda sucks they waited so long to convert him to MR, but maybe that helped him develop as a pitcher. Of course now, he's probably priced himself out of our range a la Andrew Miller.
Good stuff.

The pitch selection last night was fascinating. I don't have the breakdown but by memory, he threw 14 pitches and only 4 of them were fastballs. 99 mph fastballs. He started the inning with 3 or 4 sliders, and they were strong.
 

Adrian's Dome

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I still wouldn't address the Lackey trade as a success given that starters (especially ones making peanuts in MLB-terms) are still more valuable than relievers, and, well...everyone is more valuable than Allen Craig, but I now enjoy having Joe Kelly around. His current approach and pitch mix combined with his velocity have made a potent setup man.
 

shaggydog2000

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However, Lackey only had a year and a couple of months of RS control remaining, albeit at a tremendous discount.
It's not just the excess value Lackey had in the value of his performance above his contract, it's the negative value that ended up stapled onto Kelly and in the form of Allen Craig. Lackey provided about $30M in value above his contract for the Cardinals in that year and change. Kelly has provided about $15m in value above his contracts including this year up to now (everything from here will be gravy in this example). Allen Craig has provided $40m in negative value with his contract included. Lackey for Kelly was a bad trade straight up. Craig being involved just makes it abysmal.
 

MikeM

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It's not just the excess value Lackey had in the value of his performance above his contract, it's the negative value that ended up stapled onto Kelly and in the form of Allen Craig. Lackey provided about $30M in value above his contract for the Cardinals in that year and change. Kelly has provided about $15m in value above his contracts including this year up to now (everything from here will be gravy in this example). Allen Craig has provided $40m in negative value with his contract included. Lackey for Kelly was a bad trade straight up. Craig being involved just makes it abysmal.
I don't think it's that simple, especially among people who don't completely buy into absolute WAR math/values. Not to mention that mindset in itself ultimately helped contribute to the late trigger on making the full time RP conversion there that arguably should of happened earlier then it did. Maybe that ultimately helped Kelly's development as bosox79 suggested, or maybe it didn't and we'd already be talking more about the possibility of extending him atm.

IDK, if Kelly's run of success holds up for the year and helps void any need to make the deadline setup man tweak, I'll probably give BC an overall W on that one. I mean the flyer on Craig looks extremely dumb in hindsight, but I'm not sold Lackey has the same 2015 staying in the AL (when we weren't pushing at a title anyway), and it's not like that Craig money in the end really made any type of difference in what we spent or how we filled the roster.
 

In my lifetime

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And there were the reports that Lackey was not interested in pitching for the RS at his very reduced salary, so I think a trade somewhere was likely inevitable. Of course, it didn't have to be this trade.
 
Last edited:

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
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The wrong side of the bridge....
And there were the reports that Lackey was not interested in pitching for the RS at his very reduced salary, so I think a trade somewhere was likely inevitable. Of course, it didn't have to be this trade.
But if those reports were true, and known to be true by insiders, then it probably had to be a bad trade in strict value terms. If not this bad trade, some other bad trade. And if so, then coming out of it with a guy who has at least (albeit belatedly) provided a couple of years of solid value may be the best we could have hoped for.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Assuming both Kelly's and Kimbrel's stat lines and performances stay steady through the rest of the year and (hopefully) playoffs.... I'd make sure to give Kelly the best offer out there and let Kimbrel walk (and get the draft pick). I think Barnes could possibly take over the 8th and there are options in Pawtucket that could step up without having to get additional overpriced free agent ML relievers
 

Reverend

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Assuming both Kelly's and Kimbrel's stat lines and performances stay steady through the rest of the year and (hopefully) playoffs.... I'd make sure to give Kelly the best offer out there and let Kimbrel walk (and get the draft pick). I think Barnes could possibly take over the 8th and there are options in Pawtucket that could step up without having to get additional overpriced free agent ML relievers
Dude--it's May.

Enjoy the season.
 

In my lifetime

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But if those reports were true, and known to be true by insiders, then it probably had to be a bad trade in strict value terms. If not this bad trade, some other bad trade. And if so, then coming out of it with a guy who has at least (albeit belatedly) provided a couple of years of solid value may be the best we could have hoped for.
Thanks for clarifying my basic point, I could have been more clear in my post.
 

oumbi

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He’s been perfect since the Opening Day debacle.
I may be mistaken, but on May 10th he let up one earned run in 1 inning. but aside from that, yes, no earned runs allowed since his first appearance.
 

shaggydog2000

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I don't think it's that simple, especially among people who don't completely buy into absolute WAR math/values. Not to mention that mindset in itself ultimately helped contribute to the late trigger on making the full time RP conversion there that arguably should of happened earlier then it did. Maybe that ultimately helped Kelly's development as bosox79 suggested, or maybe it didn't and we'd already be talking more about the possibility of extending him atm.

IDK, if Kelly's run of success holds up for the year and helps void any need to make the deadline setup man tweak, I'll probably give BC an overall W on that one. I mean the flyer on Craig looks extremely dumb in hindsight, but I'm not sold Lackey has the same 2015 staying in the AL (when we weren't pushing at a title anyway), and it's not like that Craig money in the end really made any type of difference in what we spent or how we filled the roster.
You really have to minimize every significant part of the deal in order to make it look even ok. No matter what Kelly does this year, they paid Craig a massive amount of money to provide negative value to the team. You can waffle about exactly how well WAR represents relative values of relievers, exactly how good Lackey would have been in a vacuum, and the exact dollar value of each WAR win. But in the end the Sox got gave up a starter who had a really good season getting paid functionally nothing, and got back a reliever who took almost his entire controlled period to figure shit out and be good, and a very costly player who was so bad in a short period of time he pretty much offset any extra value the reliever had without even adding in the contract cost.

If you removed Craig, this would still be a crap trade, but you could argue about reliever value increasing, not being able to get full value for Lackey, etc. I still don't think I would buy it, but with Craig added in, you're just grasping at straws to find ways to make it look good. And I say that as someone who completely acknowledges Kelly's performance and current value to this team. I trust him in my head, if not in my heart yet.
 

Rasputin

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You know, I think that trade has become the thing I most wish people would STFU about.

I mean, it's done, there was a certain amount of gamble. It didn't pay off. Let's move on.
 

lexrageorge

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I think the trade is one of those that is best evaluated at the time it was made. Lackey was a classic deadline sell candidate; he really didn't want to come back to the Sox for the $500K, and the Sox weren't exactly willing to offer him an extension. They got a young, cost-controller pitcher with tantalizing stuff and who had shown flashes of promise. Craig looked as if he was recovered from his injury. Could Cherington had done better? Probably. But it was probably fair value at the time.

But how the team got Kelly is irrelevant now. The fact is that he's been a lights out reliever, which is indeed a good thing.
 

Byrdbrain

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He was fine yesterday, a walk on several close pitches to one of the best players in the game and a 100mph pitch that was taken the other way and should have been fielded.

I didn't see the game before and by the stat line it was obviously ugly but stuff happens to everyone. I'd have no issue running him back out there though he probably should be off today.
 

teddywingman

Looks like Zach Galifianakis
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Jul 31, 2009
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a basement on the hill
Yeah last night he had what seemed like a half dozen close pitches called balls that could have been strikes, like maybe an inch outside. And the hit was a groundball past Moreland, on a play he makes more often than not.

Interesting that he used his fastball 80% of the time, when just a few appearances ago, 80% of his pitches were off speed.