John Clayton: Peyton Manning headed for retirement?

[Super Nomario]

We're not going to agree on this one. But if you are saying that you know better than Bill Walsh did how to move the ball down the field in 1986, go ahead. I feel pretty comfortable with my side of the argument, which is essentially that Bill Walsh knew better in 1986 in San Francisco how to maximize his offense than a corporate attorney does in 2012 in Los Angeles. Call me crazy.

I don't think this is as obvious as you are making it sound. Hindsight is a powerful tool. For instance, I (who have never taken an economics class in my life) know that many of the federal government's efforts to stem inflation in the 1970's (like wage and price controls) were stupid, even though the people making those decisions were very smart and had access to all the best information in their era. Similarly, the work of Bill James et al means that an average fan in 2010 is much more aware of the importance of on-base percentage than most managers - even very good managers - were in the 1980s. I don't think it's ridiculous to suggest, nor does it take anything away from Bill Walsh's genius, that the 49ers could have done some things more optimally if Walsh had been aware of 25 years of subsequent research. I'm sure we will look back on some aspects of Belichick's tenure 25 years from now and find that not only were some of his decisions less-than-ideal, even fairly casual fans would know that there were better ways of approaching certain situations. That won't diminish BB's legacy one iota.

 

[radsoxfan]

ESPN making a big deal about this on Sportscenter, with Trent Dilfer saying not to draft Luck now, etc.....but it's not a big deal.

It was incredibly unlikely Peyton would not be medically cleared to play. His main problem is that the nerves exiting his spinal cord are damaged, and have not regenerated yet. And by all indications, they still haven't. Being cleared to play just means his spine is stable. Thats the expected result 4 months after spine surgery. The problem is, he still doesn't have normal nerve function. Medical clearance has nothing to do with that.

The doctors are basically saying, "Sure, go ahead and play. Unfortunately you still might find out you can't throw".

This is a total non-story until Peyton is back on the field and throwing with enough arm strength to be an NFL quarterback.

 

[WayBackVazquez]

Edit: your argument that he wasn't attempting to maximize yardage (but rather was trying to win super bowls) doesn't really hold water because guess what: Sean Payton in 2011 wasn't trying to maximize yardage either. He was trying to win the super bowl. This is not to say that NFL coaches (especially really really good ones like Walsh and Payton and so on) are infallible; it's just to say that on questions of how to maximize their offenses, they are infinitely, preposterously, catastrophically less fallible than you are. And I am. And everyone in this thread is.

Why do you keep doing this? It's impossible to have a discussion with you without you completely misstating everything I say. I assume every coach is trying to win the Super Bowl. I also assume that getting the maximum output from your offense is one means to that end to which most coaches aspire. I do not think total yardage maximization is either a necessary or sufficient element of a Super Bowl-winning team. Indeed, I don't think it has ever been done, nor do I expect it ever to be done. Your assumption that because he is Bill Walsh, he knew better in 1994 how to better balance run/pass to maximize yardage than a "corporate lawyer" with the benefit of hindsight and 20 years in his basement is not shared by me.

AND again, it's not the point. Walsh (or Siefert, or Shanahan) could have known that he would gain more yards and score more points if he passed more. He may have had reasons not to do so. Maybe he wanted Ricky Watters to be ready for some point when he may need him. Maybe he decided that the increase in expected offensive output was outweighed by the increase in potential injury to Young, and it was not necessary to implement more passing in the regular season. I have no fucking idea. My point, once again, is that Young, and Montana, and probably Ken fucking Anderson could have thrown for 5k without benefit of the rule changes to which you want to attribute the less than 5% increase leaguewide in passing yardage.

 

[WayBackVazquez]

Marino threw 20 INTs only 4 times in 17 years and not once in his last 10 seasons.

Yes, and he threw for 30 TDs only 4 times in 17 years and only once in his last 10 seasons. It was a rough average. He threw 1.05 INT per start, and 1.75 TD. Multiply by 16, and you get 28TD/16.8 INT. Happier?

 

[ethangl]

I don't think it's ridiculous to suggest, nor does it take anything away from Bill Walsh's genius, that the 49ers could have done some things more optimally if Walsh had been aware of 25 years of subsequent research.

Sorry, I think it actually is kinda ridiculous, because you won't find a single important game that the Niners lost because they didn't pass enough, or whatever "research" says they should have been doing in 1984. And what's "optimal" is not so clear -- if you are going to say that Walsh's offensive philosophies were inefficient, you have to provide specific examples where, for example, his play calling was at fault. And I would challenge you to do that.

 

[E5 Yaz]

So, Peyton Manning, eh?

 

[epraz]

So much for the idea that the NFL strong-arms people from not making news before the super bowl.

 

[crystalline]

passing the optimal number of times (at least closer to 2/3; maybe more). It is likely that only a few are able to succeed at such a volume, just as only a few would have been able to do so in 1995. But those who have done so, have put up big numbers.

Saints: 472 - 662 (71.3%); 5347 yards (7.8 ny/a); 46:14 TD/Int (3.29:1)
49ers: 319 - 480 (66.5%); 3880 yards (7.6 ny/a); 29:9 TD/INT (3.22:1)

I like both of you two, but I agree with your reaction to the posts above. Your argument is very clear, and I'm not sure why it's been twisted turned into a pissing match about how smart Bill Walsh/Seiffert may or may not have been.

On the other hand one aspect of the numbers doesn't compute. If the Niners were able to throw more, wouldn't you expect their comp pct to be inflated? The Saints' numbers are in the other direction- more attempts yet higher percentage. It could have been the 49ers were biased more to longer riskier passes, but their net yd avg is the same, suggesting not.
Schemes or defensive environment could account for this efficiency increase. Or even QB quality, but then you get more support for Brees Brady and Rodgers being better than Montana. Naively I'd expect it to be a difference in environment, suggesting rules or something like expansion. Your core point is interesting- amidst all the passing-record hoopla this year I didn't realize the big increase in passing attempts.

 

[WayBackVazquez]

On the other hand one aspect of the numbers doesn't compute. If the Niners were able to throw more, wouldn't you expect their comp pct to be inflated? The Saints' numbers are in the other direction- more attempts yet higher percentage. It could have been the 49ers were biased more to longer riskier passes, but their net yd avg is the same, suggesting not.

No, it doesn't suggest otherwise; it could support your hypothesis that the 49ers threw slightly more vertically. The fact that the 49ers had a lower completion percentage yet around the same net per attempt means that their yards/completion was higher (11.33 per completion for the Saints vs. 12.16 for the 49ers).

And by the way, I wouldn't assign too much significance to the completion percentage differential. The concept is the same for Brady and Rodgers who were around 66-68% this year, and you could just as easily consider the 1994 49ers where Young and Grbac(!) completed 70.3% at 511 attempts, i.e., a higher percentage of completions as they threw even more.

 

[E5 Yaz]

So much for the idea that the NFL strong-arms people from not making news before the super bowl.

He's going to opt out of his contract during the second-half two-minute warning

 

[JBill]

@JimIrsay Peyton has not passed our physical nor has he been cleared to play for The Indianapolis Colts. Team statement coming on Friday.

 

[H78]

What's less accurate, a Ladainian Tomlinson "on the field" action figure or a Peyton Manning bobblehead?

 

[soxhop411]

 
Whatever happens in the coming days and weeks, Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning's NFL future beyond this season won't be decided until he has an offseason exam on his surgically repaired neck, ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports.
"If the exam reveals that his neck is stable, Manning plans to return to the Broncos in 2014, regardless of how Denver fares this postseason, according to sources," Mortensen writes. "But if there is an increased risk of injury, Manning will be forced to decide whether to retire, sources said."
Earlier this week, Manning raised eyebrows when he said, "The light is at the end of the tunnel for me, no question." The 37-year-old has been in the league since 1998, when theColts drafted him first overall, and he had four neck surgeries before arriving in Denver prior to the 2012 season.
If Manning does end up calling it a career, Brock Osweiller, who was taken in the second round of the 2012 draft, would be his likely replacement.
On Sunday morning, hours before the Broncos were to host the Chargers in the AFC Divisional game, the Denver Post ran this on the front page of their playoff section with the caption: "Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning has been heavenly during the regular season, but merely mortal in the postseason with a 9-11 record that ranks poorly among the all-time greats."

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24407299/report-peyton-mannings-nfl-future-hinges-on-offseason-neck-exam

 

[soxfan121]

You missed the most important information (the article buried the lede, so it's not your fault):
 

Manning’s contract runs through the 2016 season, though his guaranteed money runs out after next year. 
 

 
Peyton is renegotiating his contract, not contemplating retirement. Nothing to see here.

 

[Reardon's Beard]

I am a spaz - ignore message.

 

[Section15Box113]

Can we break this out into a new thread with a title that reflects the recent news? Clayton's year old report isn't all that relevant at this point.

 

[Average Reds]

Can we break this out into a new thread with a title that reflects the recent news? Clayton's year old report isn't all that relevant at this point.


Yes, but it reinforces Clayton's idiocy so I am for keeping it here.

 

[Titoschew]

Has Rob Lowe chimed in?