Joe Kelly has had a few good starts in a row.

shaggydog2000 · Aug 31, 2015

nvalvo said:
No one's saying he's untradeable. But with so much uncertainty in the rotation, an innings eater to save the 'pen isn't the worst idea.

I can see the argument for a reliably mediocre guy. If you pick up Buchholz' option or resign him in some way, him Porcello and two "upside arms" does create a potential for a lot of fill-in innings from either relievers or depth starters. It's just hard to get excited about keeping Miley. But if you think your future is reliant on developing those upside guys, and you feel like you have reliable backup plans in Wright, Johnson, and whichever of Owens, Rodriguez, and Kelly don't start the year in the rotation, then maybe you take the chance. Re-arranging the guys at the back of the rotation does little to improve things, but turning a #4 or #5 into a #2 or even #3 does wonders for the team.

PrometheusWakefield · Aug 31, 2015

smastroyin said:
Even if all you care about is ERA, right now Miley is ranked 46 out of guys with qualified amount of innings.

Now, in MLB there are roughly 90-100 guys who pitch enough to qualify for ERA, another 50-70 (depending on year) of half-season type guys (callups, injuries, etc.) and then a bunch of guys who occasional starts, etc.

So, even if you limit to ERA itself, Miley is right in the middle, and he pitches more innings. If you were to state you "number" assignments based only on guys likely to pitch a full season, he would be a #2 on an average team and #3 on a good team.

There is almost no way to describe him as a "#5 starter" except to say "I wish the Red Sox had such good starting pitching that this guy would be at the back of the rotation."

Crazy the way some fans think we should be aiming for greatness instead of celebrating average players like Miley.

Rovin Romine · Aug 31, 2015

jscola85 said:
The problem is that they have another guy like that in Eduardo Rodriguez. Throwing 95 from the left side with potentially nasty breaking stuff is just as exciting as Kelly, especially when you compare their age/MLB experience. There's perhaps room for both of them, but only if the other three spots are filled by absolute rock-solid starters.

That's not a problem. There could be a problem in identifying the 5/6 best starters at the beginning of the year, vis-a-vis whomever you want to trade or sign. If we magically had a bunch of 5 AAA starters pitch their way into the ML starting rotation, the only question would be which pitchers to trade/jettison.

We've got a lot of high upside pitchers - Buchholz, E-Rod, Kelly. We have a lot of "good/solid" upside pitchers - Porcello, Miley, Owens. We have affordable "could be good" starters in Barnes, Johnson, Wright, Workman, Escobar. And the only one that's overpriced is Porcello. E-Rod, Kelly, Owens, Barnes, Johnson, Workman, Escobar and Wright all have options (I believe).

The only real problem I foresee is signing another Porcello - an untradeable sub average starter whom we have to keep running out there due to the large contract. That's how you get suck hardwired into the rotation.

phenweigh · Aug 31, 2015

Wright will be out of options next season. I suspect he'll be in the pen next season as long man/spot starter.

Savin Hillbilly · Aug 31, 2015

Rovin Romine said:
The only real problem I foresee is signing another Porcello - an untradeable sub average starter whom we have to keep running out there due to the large contract. That's how you get suck hardwired into the rotation.

Of course, if Porcello had been identifiable as a Porcello prior to signing, we wouldn't have signed him. And big-ticket pitcher contracts can go south in the same way and are even more untradeable when they do. There's no sure-fire way to avoid getting suck hardwired into your rotation, except to use only homegrown pitchers and let them sign elsewhere when their FA turn comes.

chrisfont9 · Aug 31, 2015

jscola85 said:
The problem is that they have another guy like that in Eduardo Rodriguez. Throwing 95 from the left side with potentially nasty breaking stuff is just as exciting as Kelly, especially when you compare their age/MLB experience. There's perhaps room for both of them, but only if the other three spots are filled by absolute rock-solid starters.

Yeah, which is where the worrying begins. Buchholz is a perpetual injury concern, though maybe he'll have good luck in 2016. Owens is no more polished than EdRod, and the idea that both of them will have solid, consistent years in 2016 is, well, it's possible but hard to count on right away. I suspect the approach will be to err on the side of having an extra veteran arm, even if that pushes one or both of Ed-Rod/Owens to AAA for part of the season. There are already four veterans, and a #1 type gives us 7 starters, even before contemplating Johnson's whereabouts.

Rasputin · Aug 31, 2015

Savin Hillbilly said:
Of course, if Porcello had been identifiable as a Porcello prior to signing, we wouldn't have signed him. And big-ticket pitcher contracts can go south in the same way and are even more untradeable when they do. There's no sure-fire way to avoid getting suck hardwired into your rotation, except to use only homegrown pitchers and let them sign elsewhere when their FA turn comes.

I think the fact that Porcello was identifiable as a Porcello is why we traded for and signed him. So far this has been his worst season and it shouldn't define him.

Savin Hillbilly · Aug 31, 2015

Rasputin said:
I think the fact that Porcello was identifiable as a Porcello is why we traded for and signed him. So far this has been his worst season and it shouldn't define him.

Quite possibly true, but I was using "Porcello" as an epithet in the same sense RR was--the point being, FA's who drastically underperform expectations (leaving aside whether that underperformance is a temporary dip or a new normal) can't be identified ahead of time, because if you could identify them ahead of time you would adjust your expectations, and then it wouldn't be underperformance.

Of course that doesn't mean that good scouting and numbers-crunching can't help you fine-tune your expectations so that you don't end up paying swordfish prices for tilapia, but since everybody else has scouts and number-crunchers too, there's a limit to how far that can get you. Ultimately you need luck, too, and the Sox had none of that this year.

Rasputin · Sep 5, 2015

So it's seven straight wins for Kelly and six straight where he has allowed two runs or fewer. He's gone six in all but one of those starts.

Sure, it hasn't been against the best offenses but you could add a run and have it still be decent.

How much longer before we believe this is real?

threecy · Sep 5, 2015

Rasputin said:
How much longer before we believe this is real?

April.

And let's hope it is. Suddenly the horse face trade will look good. I'm suspected that quite a few things BC was criticized for could end up turning around.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Sep 5, 2015

threecy said:
April.

And let's hope it is. Suddenly the horse face trade will look good. I'm suspected that quite a few things BC was criticized for could end up turning around.

Pretty much agree with this... I do think the Panda signing will be a sore spot more than the Ramirez one after it's all over- as I think Hanley will turn it around next season as a 1B'man and he'll hit much better. Panda I think will be about what he is right now the remainder of his contract... yuck. Porcello I think won't neccesarily be worth the $20m per year, but I do think he'll show himself as a consistent mid rotation innings eater from here on out- having some dominant stretches and some shit stretches over a full season.

But Kelly could make the Lackey trade look very good- even though I also think Craig is permanently washed up... Kelly's looking real good right now despite some hiccups. I feel like he'll earn a spot in the rotation and continue this quality pitching through '16.

Tyrone Biggums · Sep 5, 2015

Rasputin said:
So it's seven straight wins for Kelly and six straight where he has allowed two runs or fewer. He's gone six in all but one of those starts.

Sure, it hasn't been against the best offenses but you could add a run and have it still be decent.

How much longer before we believe this is real?

His starts have one thing in common. He's actually listening now. Throwing less fastballs. I think provided this trend continues it could be very real. I don't think he's ever going to be a top of the rotation guy but I'd settle for #3. At this point aside from Buchholz and Edro when he first came up it's been a season full of 4's 5's and worse.

shaggydog2000 · Sep 5, 2015

Tyrone Biggums said:
His starts have one thing in common. He's actually listening now. Throwing less fastballs. I think provided this trend continues it could be very real. I don't think he's ever going to be a top of the rotation guy but I'd settle for #3. At this point aside from Buchholz and Edro when he first came up it's been a season full of 4's 5's and worse.

Well if he's listening and pitching better, shouldn't that show up in the stats? He's got basically the same K% and BB% as he did the rest of the year, and his FIP and SIERA are basically the same. What has changed is his BABIP, which dropped ~50 points from .313 to .267, and his left on base percentage, which went from 68.9% to 88.2%. I don't think those numbers are sustainable for Kelly. When you look at pitchers who have stats like that, they do it with much higher K rates than he's been showing lately. I think this is just a run of good luck to balance out the bad luck that made him look terrible earlier in the year.

Toe Nash · Sep 5, 2015

In his last 6 starts:
-He has an 18.1% K% and a 8.7% BB%, compared to 16.4% / 8.6% career.
-He has .71 HR/9 compared to .83 career.
-He has a .267 BABIP and a 88.1% (!) strand rate, compared to .297 and 74.1% career.

So, he has a 3.86 FIP and a 4.10 xFIP in these 6 starts. Slightly better than his career numbers but not a major step forward in his peripherals. I wouldn't get too excited yet.

Savin Hillbilly · Sep 5, 2015

shaggydog2000 said:
Well if he's listening and pitching better, shouldn't that show up in the stats? He's got basically the same K% and BB% as he did the rest of the year, and his FIP and SIERA are basically the same. What has changed is his BABIP, which dropped ~50 points from .313 to .267, and his left on base percentage, which went from 68.9% to 88.2%. I don't think those numbers are sustainable for Kelly. When you look at pitchers who have stats like that, they do it with much higher K rates than he's been showing lately. I think this is just a run of good luck to balance out the bad luck that made him look terrible earlier in the year.

Fair point, but it does leave aside the possibility that the change in BABIP and the change in pitch mix/approach might be related. (Granting that there are sample size issues here, the fact that he has also cut has HR/9 in half over the August/Sept. stretch--it was 1.2 on August 1, and has been 0.6 since then--would support this possibility.) Maybe the new improved Kelly isn't really a .267 BABIP pitcher, but he might be a .280-ish one, and that might the difference between awfulness and useful middling-ness.

Buzzkill Pauley · Sep 5, 2015

phenweigh said:
Wright will be out of options next season. I suspect he'll be in the pen next season as long man/spot starter.

Escobar is out of options, too.

If DDski really wants to keep one or both of Wright and Escobar, he'll have to find room in the MLB staff. Wright has certainly pitched well enough that Beane or Theo would likely take a flyer on him at minimum salary, should DDski try to outright him to Pawtucket. Escobar, with his recent mediocrity in AAA, might sneak through unclaimed. Though he might not. It might not matter.

Here's how 2016 should break down for the current starting options:

MLB 5+ years AST (can refuse assignment to AAA): Buchholz, Porcello
MLB 3-5 years AST (must pass through waivers): Miley, Kelly
MLB <3 years AST (w/ remaining options listed): Wright (0), Escobar (0), Rodriguez (2), Workman (2), Barnes (2), Owens (3), Johnson (3)

Which means, barring a trade or injury, the MLB rotation "locks" are Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, and Kelly. There's room for one FA acquisition, or for one of the minimum salary guys, but not both. If the Sox wanted the opening day rotation to include, say, both Cueto and EdRo, then one of the four "locks" needs to be bumped off to the bullpen or another team.

If Kelly had sucked since his call-up, he'd likely be headed for bullpen work, but he's been really good, with genuine improvement as well as luck. So I can't imagine the Sox demoting him now. IMO, Kelly's resurgence in results (and Porcello's) means the three main issues for DDski are:

1.) who should be acquired to lead the staff, and at what cost;
2.) what is Clay Buchholz' value as a pitcher and as a trade chip; and
3.) should Miley remain as a league-average innings eater, or are the minimum salary guys worth taking an upside gamble to start the season.

threecy · Sep 5, 2015

I guess another factor could be returning to Boston with three excellent outfielders in place...

mulluysavage · Sep 6, 2015

What about looking at change BABIP for the staff, and comparing Kelly's change to that, as a way to account for improvement in defense?

absintheofmalaise · Sep 6, 2015

mulluysavage said:
What about looking at change BABIP for the staff, and comparing Kelly's change to that, as a way to account for improvement in defense?

You might want to look at his GB/FB ratio since he's been pitching well to his old numbers to see if more balls have been hit to the OF to break it down further.

Buzzkill Pauley · Sep 6, 2015

mulluysavage said:
What about looking at change BABIP for the staff, and comparing Kelly's change to that, as a way to account for improvement in defense?

Month-to-month BABIP change is pretty useless as a barometer of improvement, especially for the staff as a whole:
.308 = April
.292 = May
.317 = June
.311 = July
.318 = August

You could probably do an analysis that correlates change in dWAR or DRS as a function of change in pitcher WAR or RAA, but I don't really trust any defensive metrics numbers well enough to expect that sort of study would really be worth the time.

Rovin Romine · Sep 10, 2015

And the thread isn't even bumped for another win. 5.2 innings, 1ER, pulled after 110 pitches while up 10-1. It really has been a tale of two seasons for him.

I don't know if this makes him more or less likely trade bait, but he's in his first year of arb for this upcoming season. One putrid half-season, one excellent half season.

EricFeczko · Sep 10, 2015

Rovin Romine said:
And the thread isn't even bumped for another win. 5.2 innings, 1ER, pulled after 110 pitches while up 10-1. It really has been a tale of two seasons for him.

I don't know if this makes him more or less likely trade bait, but he's in his first year of arb for this upcoming season. One putrid half-season, one excellent half season.

Well, much of the difference in his ERA is due to a higher strand rate; not sure what that means exactly. His FIP has dropped by 0.2.
Nevertheless, he is walking fewer batters (9.3% in 1st half, 7.1% in 2nd) and striking out more batters (18% in first half, 19.2% in second).

EDIT: This is despite a higher BABIP in the second half.

nattysez · Sep 10, 2015

Pretty interesting post by Alex Speier today:

What does a stretch of eight consecutive victorious starts suggest about Kelly’s ability, if anything?

Twenty-nine pitchers have won at least eight straight starts from 2000 through 2015. Of the 29 streaks, 16 were by pitchers who at some point in their careers won Cy Young Awards. Nine of the remaining 13 were pitchers who, at some point in their careers, were named big league All-Stars. Kelly is one of four pitchers since 2000 who have won eight straight All-Star games without either of those accolades, joining Jeremy Bonderman, Collin McHugh, and Ivan Nova. Kelly’s run is closer to those of pitchers like Bonderman and Nova and Russ Ortiz than to, say, Clayton Kershaw and Cliff Lee. His 2.59 ERA, while sharp, is the sixth-highest of these 29 streaks (not even taking into account baseball’s current depressed offensive environment).

Still, the proximity of Kelly’s stats to those of, for instance, late bloomer A.J. Burnett merits notice, given some of the similarities in stuff and early-career struggles for the two pitchers. So, too, is it worth noting that Kelly has enjoyed past stretches of dominance as a starter, specifically in 2013, when he went 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA in 15 starts, including a 10-start stretch in which he was 8-0 with a 1.70 ERA.

rlsb · Sep 10, 2015

Kelly's turnaround reminds me of another pitcher who turned it around immensely in the same season. 2-8 turned into 17-13. Cut 3 runs from his ERA and helped lead the charge to the near miss division championship of 1972.
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1972/Kpattm1010051972.htm

soxhop411 · Sep 16, 2015

@PeteAbe: Joe Kelly sent back to Boston for an MRI by #RedSox. Shut down for the season.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Sep 16, 2015

The big question will be whether or not he is shut down for next season as well. That could make the off-season even more interesting. Or less interesting, depending on perspective, I suppose.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Sep 16, 2015

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
The big question will be whether or not he is shut down for next season as well. That could make the off-season even more interesting. Or less interesting, depending on perspective, I suppose.

Obviously surgery will likely shut him down all of '16 making the Lackey deal pure crap. If it's a small thing and he can continue to pitch anything like he has recently for most of next season then that deal would be a win even with the pure shit that is Allen Craig.

AB in DC · Sep 16, 2015

Unless I missed a news article somewhere, let's not jump to the worst case scenario quite so quickly. Today is September 16, which mean that there is almost no difference between "shut down for the season" and "put on the 15-day DL".

lexrageorge · Sep 16, 2015

AB in DC said:
Unless I missed a news article somewhere, let's not jump to the worst case scenario quite so quickly. Today is September 16, which mean that there is almost no difference between "shut down for the season" and "put on the 15-day DL".

+1

Shoulder "tightness" can be caused by many things, most of which do not require surgery plus 12 months of rehab. The problem is that we likely really won't know for certain until next season whether this is the typical "15-day DL" tightness, or career ending injury.

Fireball Fred · Sep 16, 2015

We don't have to speculate about serious injury to have renewed doubts about Kelly; we just have to recognize that he hasn't yet been able to pitch a full season. So far, he's looking kind of like Buchholz, a pitcher who can be excellent but is sometimes awful and is frequently injured. Building a guy like that, much less two of them, into the rotation is problematic.

Fireball Fred · Sep 17, 2015

Mastrodonato makes the point, more broadly: http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2015/09/2016_sox_staff_hinges_on_henry_owens

czar · Sep 17, 2015

Fireball Fred said:
We don't have to speculate about serious injury to have renewed doubts about Kelly; we just have to recognize that he hasn't yet been able to pitch a full season. So far, he's looking kind of like Buchholz, a pitcher who can be excellent but is sometimes awful and is frequently injured. Building a guy like that, much less two of them, into the rotation is problematic.

I am not quite sure they are that equivalent, pending the outcome of Kelly's latest injury.

To my knowledge, this is only Kelly's 2nd "DL" stint (last year being a hamstring injury suffered running the bases). He missed some time in ST this year, but was back during the first week of the season. While all shoulder injuries are concerning, it's a bit unfair to argue he's made out of glass.

While he has spent more time on the DL, Buchholz has been a definitely better pitcher when healthy (Kelly has 1.3 fWAR/200 as a MLB pitcher, Buchholz has 2.7 fWAR/200).

Rice4HOF · Sep 18, 2015

No serious issues with his shoulder: http://m.weei.com/sports/boston/this-just-in/211540826/source-no-serious-issues-kellys-shoulder

Buzzkill Pauley · Sep 18, 2015

Fabulous news. Let Rich Hill pick up some starts, and look forward to 2016!

Lose Remerswaal · Sep 18, 2015

Still need a 6th starter, since they want to keep Ed-Ro's innings down (and Owens, to a degree)

Buzzkill Pauley · Sep 18, 2015

The DRAFT PICK DEFENDERS are always available for a bullpen game!

There's only two-to-three turns through the rotation until the season ends. If the Sox care that much about EdRo's and Owen's innings, they can limit them in any number of ways even without a sixth starter.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Sep 18, 2015

I wouldn't be surprised if Barnes got another start or two.

Great news about Kelly.

Joe Kelly has had a few good starts in a row.

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