Jeff Green's Trajectory

wutang112878

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teddykgb said:
I honestly don't understand how it's possible for him to attempt only 13 FG in 2 games.  He's the closest thing this team has to a primary scorer, he should probably get that many shots in a single game almost regardless of effectiveness.
 
 
 
Danny does not believe he is a primary scorer, and its generally not a great sign when your GM is trying to reduce expectations for you
 
 

 
“Well, I don’t think Jeff will be a focal point of our team this year,” president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said. .... "If we expect Jeff to be the focal point and to turn into Kevin Durant or LeBron James or even Paul Pierce, I think that we’re putting unrealistic expectations on him.”
 
“I think Jeff is a complete player who can defend and pass and score,” Ainge said, “but, no, I don’t think Jeff is one of those guys who’s going to get you 25 a game.
 
“I think Jeff needs to become a better shooter — a more consistent shooter — to take on a role like that,” Ainge said. “I think (he) has shown signs of having the makeup to be a great offensive player, but not consistently, so hopefully he can get more consistent at that.
 
 
Such a ringing endorsement
 

mcpickl

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I just don't understand the hate for this guy, maybe it's just the ESPN 24 hour sports cycle we now live in where everything is either the best, or the worst.
 
Jeff Green isn't an excellent player, nor is he an awful one. He's a good basketball player.
 
Danny Ainge didn't give him a ringing endorsement because he says he's not going to be Lebron, Durant, or Pierce? Good grief, those guys are Hall of Famers. It's now a putdown to not be as good as Hall of Famers?
 
Is Jeff Green inconsistent? Yes he is. You know who else is? Every player in the NBA who isn't great.
 

wutang112878

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Have you ever had a girlfriend that is pretty good looking but if she really puts an effort in and dresses up she is hot?  She is a little socially awkward, but she can blend in.  Sometimes in the bedroom she is awesome, but there are times she doesnt seem to be putting in a lot of effort.  Then every couple of weeks she wont answer your calls or your texts which is just strange.  That girlfriend would drive you nuts.  But she has the potential to be a great, awesome girlfriend that could turn into a wife, but ultimately those are fatal flaws and you break it off.
 
That is Jeff Green.  He can look the part of a great player. He doesnt have a natural position but he blends in on the court.  There are games where he is awesome, there are games where he coasts.  Every once and a while he completely vanishes like 11/16 & 11/19 where he went 0 for 6 then 2 for 7
 
Those of us who hate Jeff Green hate him because he flashes the potential but just never puts it together.  If he was Brian Scalabrine and had a low ceiling, no one would care.  Its why Antoine had haters because if he removed a few warts (taking 3s and desire to play down low) he could have been a top 10 player.
 

mcpickl

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Again, I don't think your analogy(weird as it is) applies to only Jeff Green. It doesn't even apply to a few guys. It applies to dozens of guys in the NBA. The entire class of good players that aren't great and aren't awful.
 
Forget that Jeff Green can look like a great player. He's not one. Lots of good players can look great on certain nights.
 
I think Ainge is right. It's not that Jeff Green isn't playing up to his expectations. It's that peoples' expectations for him are way too high for whatever reason.
 

moly99

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Green seems to have made some progress this year, IMO.
 
His shot selection is better this year. He is getting to the line much more often and shooting more 3's instead of settling for mid range shots. And he is hitting 39% of his shots from the 3 point line. He is still a bad rebounder and inconsistent defender, but at least his fouling has gone down.
 
If the Celtics keep Green long term what is he? A sixth man?
 

Devizier

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No hate for Green here, although I was completely stunned by his contract.
 
The guy has no trajectory, as he's been more or less the same player since his second year in the league.
 

wutang112878

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mcpickl said:
Again, I don't think your analogy(weird as it is) applies to only Jeff Green. It doesn't even apply to a few guys. It applies to dozens of guys in the NBA. The entire class of good players that aren't great and aren't awful.
 
Forget that Jeff Green can look like a great player. He's not one. Lots of good players can look great on certain nights.
 
I think Ainge is right. It's not that Jeff Green isn't playing up to his expectations. It's that peoples' expectations for him are way too high for whatever reason.
 
Yes it does apply to dozens of guys in the NBA, but he is our pick of that dozen.  I dont really care that Al Jefferson could be an elite player in this league if he really put an effort in on defense, but when he was here this drove me bananas. 
 
 
moly99 said:
Green seems to have made some progress this year, IMO.
 
His shot selection is better this year. He is getting to the line much more often and shooting more 3's instead of settling for mid range shots. And he is hitting 39% of his shots from the 3 point line. He is still a bad rebounder and inconsistent defender, but at least his fouling has gone down.
 
If the Celtics keep Green long term what is he? A sixth man?
 
While you highlighted the positives, you skipped over the negative which is that his 2pt FG% is 45.6% below his career average of 47.8%  Now his TS% is is up 54.6% compared to 53.3% career average but that includes FTs, whereas his eFG% is at his career average 48.7% compared to 48.8%  So offensively his shot selection has changed, but he is an equally efficient shooter. 
 
The interesting thing with the free throws is that he is taking less 2pt shots per 36 than his career average (9.2 vs 9.7) yet he is getting more FTs per 36 than his career average (5.0 vs 3.6)  Then if you trust the 82games shot selection data, they indicate 70% of his shots are jump shots and 22% are 'close'  So something doesnt exactly add up.  I certainly believe some of the increased FTs is because Green is being more aggressive, however some of this also has to be due to the refs either giving Green more respect or simply giving Green more fouls because they have to give the Celts some and by default he is one of our better players.  Going full circle, if his improved efficiency is really just a function of increased FTs and some of the increased FTs are not the result of anything he is doing then he becomes closer to the same old player again
 

TroyOLeary

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The problem is viewing consistency mainly as a function of effort rather than a function of skill.
 
Has there ever been a player, in the history of the game, that has, outside of the natural 2-3 year grace period of getting acclimated to the league and getting more minutes, gone from a decent player to a great one?
 
You're asking Jeff Green to do something that has historically rarely, if ever, been done.  Which should indicate that it's less about what Jeff Green is doing and more about what Jeff Green is.
 
I did a search on Basketball-Reference using their season finder tool.  In the Shot Clock Era, there have been 119 players (including Green) to average 20 mpg each of their first 5 seasons and average 17 ppg or less in each.  1 of those 119 players, Mike Bibby, went on to average 20 ppg in any other season of their career, doing it once in 2005-06.  Now admittedly these cutoffs are somewhat arbitrary, and ppg certainly doesn't tell the whole story.  But the fact is, players just don't get that much better in the middle of their careers.
 

moly99

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wutang112878 said:
 
While you highlighted the positives, you skipped over the negative which is that his 2pt FG% is 45.6% below his career average of 47.8%  Now his TS% is is up 54.6% compared to 53.3% career average but that includes FTs, whereas his eFG% is at his career average 48.7% compared to 48.8%  So offensively his shot selection has changed, but he is an equally efficient shooter.
 
I think this is the inevitable outcome of changing his teammates. Before he had Durant, Harden, Westbrook, Pierce, Rondo, Garnett, etc. to work with. Now he has Jordan Crawford.
 
I have very mixed feelings on Green. While I would much rather pay one great player 15 million than two good players in the 6-9 million range, let's face it: Lebron isn't coming here as a free agent. But if we have to spend money, I would prefer to have Green at 9 million than Brandon Jennings at 8.3 or Rudy Gay at 15.
 

mcpickl

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moly99 said:
Green seems to have made some progress this year, IMO.
 
His shot selection is better this year. He is getting to the line much more often and shooting more 3's instead of settling for mid range shots. And he is hitting 39% of his shots from the 3 point line. He is still a bad rebounder and inconsistent defender, but at least his fouling has gone down.
 
If the Celtics keep Green long term what is he? A sixth man?
I would say on a championship level team, he can be your fourth best guy. Assuming the top two guys aren't Lebron/Durant level guys. He's an NBA starter for sure.
 

mcpickl

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moly99 said:
 
I think this is the inevitable outcome of changing his teammates. Before he had Durant, Harden, Westbrook, Pierce, Rondo, Garnett, etc. to work with. Now he has Jordan Crawford.
 
I have very mixed feelings on Green. While I would much rather pay one great player 15 million than two good players in the 6-9 million range, let's face it: Lebron isn't coming here as a free agent. But if we have to spend money, I would prefer to have Green at 9 million than Brandon Jennings at 8.3 or Rudy Gay at 15.
Everyone would surely rather do that.
 
But when the Celtics signed Green, the only other option they had besides signing Green with that money was stuffing it into the owners pockets. It could not be spent elsewhere.
 

ifmanis5

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Green's missed 360 dunk in traffic was a perfect microcosm of his career-- OH MY GOD! LOOK WHAT'S ABOUT TO HAPPEN!!  Oh. Nevermind.