JDM
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As a writing professor, I'll tell you the same thing I tell my students (free advice!): Your job is to answer questions, not ask them. Anyone can ask a bunch of questions, but readers want a good writer to have already found the answers and provide them.
I'm guessing you're asking so many questions because you don't have answers, either, and you don't even have a true point to make; instead, you prefer to hint at ambiguity because it serves to validate your own unclear points.
Edit: Or you believe collusion is at play, but you won't come out and clearly state this.
That’s horrible advice! A good artist or writer asks questions that makes the audience or reader engaged enough in such a way that they will ask more questions.
EDIT: Nevermind. I know why I don't understand your posts. It rhymes with smignore.
Marxist and capitalist(swine) theory aside, what effect, if any, does the Hosmer signing have on JD Martinez?
I think that it's possible that the "flexibility" that was rumored may have had something to do with non-financial sweeteners in the deal, especially ones that may kick in once the current CBA expires in 2022.
Hosmer got a full no-trade clause for 3 years, limited for 2 years after, an an opt-out in year 5 when the CBA expires. After year 5 he also has 10/5 rights so gets full no-trade protection.
So basically, Hosmer gets 5 years at $20M, then has 3 years at $13 million per if he has a career threatening injury, or if he if underperforms AND he has leverage the whole time there to extract more value if the Padres don't like his contract and want to trade him.
Boras did it again. I would HATE it if those kind of terms were given to JDM, but you have to wonder if those were the kinds of terms he was looking for the Red Sox to offer after their initial offer of 5 years/ $100ish Million.
Those final 3 years on Hosmer's contract seem like window dressing but they are really smart. Security for the player and lower the AAV for the team.
I don't agree with "Boras did it again." I guess you can say he got the best for his client but imo that's about it. He was projected to get something like 6 years $132m. He got 8 years $139M. Or am I missing something?
I don't know if Boras did it as much as Preller bailed him out in this instance.
I'll personally be more impressed with him at this point if he's able to squeeze notably above $100m guaranteed out of Arizona on JDM, or trumps the Darvish contract for Arrieta.
I'll personally be more impressed with him at this point if he's able to squeeze notably above $100m guaranteed out of Arizona on JDM, or trumps the Darvish contract for Arrieta.
If it would take a similarly structured deal to sign JDM at his current age, I’d pass. Sox don’t need to handcuff themselves beyond the 2020 season.
I guess it depends on how similar. If our offer becomes 5/105 with $5m as an up front signing bonus, $22M for years 1-3, an opt out after year 3, and then 2 cheaper $18M tack-on years, that fills a need during this window, within CBT limits, without shifting too much value to JDM and risk to the Sox. Not my preference, but manageable.
A good artist would do this successfully. That doesn’t mean that unsuccessful or, er bad artists shouldn’t also attempt to engage the same strategies when they make their work, but perhaps a relevant question is if the writing is for artistic or journalistic purposes (this is less an issue for painting or sculpture).
I love a good death of the author debate as much as anyone (especially after the digressions into theories of Capitalism), but maybe we need is a bit of gonzo journalism to determine exactly what’s going on with JDM & the Sox…
Interesting that this structure integrates one of Dave Cameron’s stated ideas before he went to the Padres, but with the twist of letting the player opt into the lower Cost back-end of the contract.
I’m becoming more concerned about the Sox maintaining my enough financial flexibility for in season moves, so I wouldn’t want to see DD sign JDM to a contract that bumps his AAV up in the near term. I think it’s more likely that the CBT limits get raised (perhaps in conjunction with new pace of play rules) as the simplest way to throw the players a minor concession.
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The idea of front loading a deal and making the lower back-end salaries optional (via player options or an opt-out) in order to lower the AAV for luxury tax purposes only really works if the player finishes the deal and takes those low salary back-end years. If he opts out, the years he opts out of disappear and the deal's AAV gets retroactively adjusted (so Hosmer's AAV would go from $18M to $21M if he opts out after 5 years).
In the Padres case, no big deal as they'll likely be nowhere near close enough to the cap to take a luxury tax hit. But if the Red Sox were to do something like this with Martinez to shave a couple million of AAV to fit themselves under the $237M line, they still might get burned if he opts out, changes his AAV, and causes penalties to be retroactively assessed.
Interesting Insider column on ESPN today by Dan Szymborski on who has the best chance by ZiPS to dethrone HOU (the current WS favorites). ZiPS has HOU at 14.4 percent to repeat, then CLE, LAD, CHC, NYY (11.0% with the best bullpen ZiPS has ever projected, and if they win the division, they become the faves to win it all), WAS and then BOS at 5.7%.
But what I thought was interesting and why I am posting this in this thread is that he ends with:
"None of this takes into account the Red Sox are heavily involved in the J.D. Martinez race and that move would in fact partially address one of the team's most significant holes -- below-average players at first base and DH. Put Martinez in Fenway, and the Red Sox's shot gets bumped up to 8.0 percent."
But what I thought was interesting and why I am posting this in this thread is that he ends with:
"None of this takes into account the Red Sox are heavily involved in the J.D. Martinez race and that move would in fact partially address one of the team's most significant holes -- below-average players at first base and DH. Put Martinez in Fenway, and the Red Sox's shot gets bumped up to 8.0 percent."
With regards to the bolded, the 3/$39MM really only works if the Padres view that portion as deferred money, with a small chance to hit it big if Hosmer sucks in year 5, opts in, and then is rejuvenated to a degree that he outperforms his contract.
I don't know why teams don't try to do the inverse more often: high value early years with a team option (or vesting options) for a lower value back end that gives the player the money they are looking for if they perform the contract but protect against injury/complete non-performance. I guess Duke did that with Manny but I would think once contracts get into 9 figures, players could be convinced to take some of the injury risks themselves instead of laying it all on the clubs.
Frankly, those type of contracts would help all players get paid, not just the super-superstars.
How far back does the adjustment go? To just the recently completed year, or for all prior years? As you note, for a team like the Sox, that could have a significant unraveling effect on their moves post-signing in years 2 and 3 (if they included an opt-out after year 3, for example). In fact, I'm not sure how it would be fully implemented. If readjusting the AAV caused the team to retroactively exceed the CBT this year or next, how would the league impose the draft pick penalties? The Sox would have already made those picks! So would they belatedly charge the extra penalty $ and then take away a pick in 2021?
It would be adjusted for the length of the contract, of course. I would think the league would simply impose penalties immediately...assess the extra penalty money and if necessary, adjust the appropriate pick in the next draft.
So really, the only gain for the team would be delaying the draft pick penalty...assuming that the player they pick in the 2019 draft is of more value than the one they might miss out on in 2021.
From the team's perspective, that delay could be advantageous. Depends on how they see the subsequent years playing out, in terms of team payroll and the LT thresholds, as well as the impact of any new CBA (which could address and even limit retroactive penalties). But in general, I'm guessing most teams would want to avoid that level of uncertainty, speculation and risk.
My guess: JDM signs by Thursday noon, 5/110 (22 each yr), with an opt-out after two years. JDM gets security and the chance to re-test the market at age 32 and does not have to take a pillow contract and compete in the 2018 FA market.
If the Red Sox are offering him the biggest contract at 5 years 100 million dollars, why would they up their offer and throw in an opt out? Is there a mystery team they are worried about?
I highly doubt they will outbid themselves and a 2-year opt out sucks for Boston. When JDM leaves, they are right back where they started. You’d better win a championship in those two years.
Pete's had nothing all winter and suddenly now a source of Pete has this "we're ready to move on soon" blurb.
Push is coming to shove very soon.
Push is coming to shove very soon.
The only way I'd consider an opt-out is if the team gets some benefit in return. Let's say their current offer is 5/110M for 22M AAV. I would be okay with something along the lines of 6/102M for 17 AAV with an opt-out after 3 years. It would essentially be adding a free year to the end of the contract in order to reduce the AAV, which has more effect on the Sox budgeting.
You'd have to pay him 17M in each of the first three years, so that the AAV doesn't recalculate in the case of an opt-out. Then, have the last year be really cheap so that he is easily tradable/cuttable in case he regresses. From JDM's point of view, its similar guaranteed money to what he is currently being offered, but he gets the opt-out opportunity. From Boras' point of view, he can claim he won the negotiation by getting the 6th year and opt-out.
If he plays great, well at least you got 3 years out of him during the team's window to contend. If he's not that great (and it would have been worth the 3/51M investment), at least the remainder of the deal is only 3/51M, which won't kill the team in terms of AAV and would be easy to DFA in the final year.
2018: 17
2019: 17
2020: 17
2021: 23
2022: 23
2023: 5
With that being said, sticking to 5/110M or so is the preferred option. Its just a matter if JDM will ever accept it or if he'll hold out and take a 1-year deal with the D-Backs or something.
Not that I necessarily buy into the idea that some sort of deadline looms, but the owners were talking to media this morning at JetBlue Park. Just the fact that the beat guys like PeteAbe and team officials are back under the same roof (so to speak) lends a bit of credence to him "suddenly" having a source.
Or we've basically already moved on with Plan B back when the decision was made to re-up Moreland, just put the final touches on it with the Nunez re-sign, and at this point are just waiting for Boras to get on with it already (knowing damn well there was never a chance in hell they'd come crawling back here for our take-it-or-leave-it 5/$100m offer. Too much of a reputation and ego factor in play for that to ever happen).
Given both parties were actually still meeting and reportedly in flexible negotiations a week or so back, I'm currently guessing that Boras/JDM are forced into looking for their "win" here on the per/year side, resulting in a somewhat front loaded 3/$75-80m out of Arizona with an opt out after year two. Which serves the need of keeping Arizona up to competitive pace in the short term and at worst leaves them with a 1 year overlap on the potential Goldy extension concern.
The money, sure, but I don't think any of us care about that. But can they take a 2019 Amateur draft pick if/when he opts out in 2021?
We talked about that upthread. Red(s)hawk's guess, which is probably right, is that, at least under the current CBA, they simply impose the pick penalty for that upcoming season (2021).
Hosmer reportedly just turned down a higher AAV deal/fewer years with the Royals for more guaranteed money with the Padres. I doubt JD or Boras turn down over 20 million dollars because of an ego trip, and I also highly doubt the Diamondbacks are willing to pay JD $25 million a year over the next three seasons. Once a contract is signed all of this BS takes an immediate backseat and baseball is played. Boras knows that the market for JD will not get better after three years, unless he repeats last year every single season of that deal.
edit: ahhhh after actually looking at the royals offer, that is only nominally true
You could be right I guess but i highly doubt it on multiple points.
At this point I'd be very surprised if JDM is anywhere but the Sox, I do think he could have an opt out after 3 years and some lower cost player options added at the end.
I'd also be very surprised if Arizona would pay anywhere near that kind of money.
Add this to the growing list of little details that don't really add up (imo) in the whole "of course JDM is eventually going to take that Sox offer" narrative.
If there was no way Arizona was willing to pay in that ballpark, why are they even still bothering to meet/negotiate this late in the process?
If there was a better offer than the one the Sox reportedly put out to him, why is he still on the market?
Maybe Arizona and Boras haven't finished hammering out all the details in a contract concept that only gained real steam when they sat down again last week?
Or does the idea that the above is all just centered around a bunch of empty effort, and the expectation of a white flag waving Boras marching through DD's door any day now, really make more sense to you?
signing a contract that would make his client less money seems to be a somewhat unprofessional thing for Boras to do. I understand that the media has created a narrative of Scott Boras, egomaniac, but at the end of the day, the deal that pays his client more is the one his client will probably sign. I can't imagine that the Dbacks are able to afford him, especially after not being able to move Grienke. The meetings with the owner last week reek of Boras trying to circumvent the GMs, but it doesnt appear to have worked
Ok, so the idea that Arizona can't possibly be interested in JDM and the belief Boras/JDM are going to come crawling back to Boston for that 5/$100m is still the base theory you are working off of there though.
So for those not subscribing to that, and other then people's own individual preference that the Sox sign JDM, why should we believe that DD is really going to turn around and trump a less total money but more overall appeal (for both Boras and JDM himself) counter offer that might be on the verge of coming out of Arizona? He obviously likes our core bounce back possibility, saw enough upside potential in Moreland to hand him a 2 year deal when he didn't have to, just got his deadline lineup upgrade back on the cheap, and as bonus saw Hanley show up to camp apparently feeling enough of the heat that he made a real off-season conditioning effort.
I just don't realistically see either side budging at this point.
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If Martinez signs for less than the biggest dollar offer, it wouldn't be on the advice of his agent. If he turns down the most money offered, I'm going to assume it was because he preferred the destination rather than because he wanted to gamble on doing better in a different market in a couple years.
Why? If JDM feels he's worth more then the $20m/per the Sox's offer is firm on he's not somehow obligated to take that just because it's clocking in with the most total money. What's "best" here might end up being subjective.
3/$75-80m with a possibility to hit free agency again at age 32 instead of being locked in at a lower rate until 35 would be worth leaving $20-25m of Red Sox money on the table imo.
Yes, but what about all the poor players who come after him?? What kind of precedent would that create?!!
If the Dbacks has 25mil plus per year to sign him, even for three years, maybe it would have happened. But the idea i s that the 5/100 is the best deal he has received by a long shot. There is nothing that shows the Dbacks would be willing to spend that much on him and that they even have that much to spend. They are not a big budget team and are pretty maxed out on payroll as is, especially if they want to sign Goldschmidt in a few years. Some of their young players will be getting arb expensive by then as well, and its not like JDM will push them into the elite category
Breaking: JD Martinez and Red Sox are moving close to a deal. not done yet. details not known yet.
Breaking: JD Martinez and Red Sox are moving close to a deal. not done yet. details not known yet.
EDIT: Beaten by seconds.
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