JDM

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chawson

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Interesting that Tampa is in full-on sell mode this early.

Decent likelihood it’s the Diamondbacks about to trade for Dickerson to play left, where they told Tomas a week ago that he’s not the starter.

If he’s not going to Minnesota with Odorizzi, I can’t see many other teams in. Not that would pay him $6M to start as a full-time OF or DH. Cleveland, Yankees, White Sox are possible fits I guess? SF as a hedge for Pence? Padres or Royals if they’re doing something dumb?

Gomez, Maybin, Cargo, and Dyson still on the market.
 
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BillMuellerFanClub

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Hosmer reportedly agreeing to terms with San Diego for 8 years with an opt out after 5. No dollar figure yet.

What does this do for JDM? 8 years is insane.
 

BigPapiMPD34

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Very interested to see what the salary is for Hosmer. 8 years seems crazy on its own, never mind an opt-out. I wonder if he only got 8 years with an opt-out due to a crazy low AAV (maybe like 16-19 instead of the 20-23 that was initially expected).

I think this has two main impacts:

1) It sets the market for all the other players that have multiple teams trying to sign them.
2) It could at least give us a hint on whether or not Boras/JDM are prepared to accept the Sox offer or continue to hold out. For example, if Hosmer gets 16-19M / year, JDM should probably go ahead and accept the 22-25 that the Sox are reported offering. However, if Hosmer gets something closer to 20-23, then the Sox are probably going to need to bump up their offer to 5/130M or so.
 

Sampo Gida

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I has suggested earlier the way to break the impasse was tack on a couple of low dollar (10 million) player options for JDM. The Hosmer signing has me thinking something similar happens (front loading and ability to leave early but guaranteed money at back end in case of injury/decline ) with JDM
 

Sampo Gida

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Hosmer reportedly agreeing to terms with San Diego for 8 years with an opt out after 5. No dollar figure yet.

What does this do for JDM? 8 years is insane.
Why is a contract that pays a player through his age 35 season insane when his best offensive years may still be ahead of him?
 

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Very interested to see what the salary is for Hosmer. 8 years seems crazy on its own, never mind an opt-out. I wonder if he only got 8 years with an opt-out due to a crazy low AAV (maybe like 16-19 instead of the 20-23 that was initially expected).

I think this has two main impacts:

1) It sets the market for all the other players that have multiple teams trying to sign them.
2) It could at least give us a hint on whether or not Boras/JDM are prepared to accept the Sox offer or continue to hold out. For example, if Hosmer gets 16-19M / year, JDM should probably go ahead and accept the 22-25 that the Sox are reported offering. However, if Hosmer gets something closer to 20-23, then the Sox are probably going to need to bump up their offer to 5/130M or so.
The Sox don't need to bump their offer unless there is another team making a competitive bid for JDM. This is interesting, but likely doesn't affect JDM's market at all.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Why is a contract that pays a player through his age 35 season insane when his best offensive years may still be ahead of him?
because if you look at his career he's had several years of replacement-level production.

it's a curious contract for the player, in this case not because of age
 

BigPapiMPD34

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The Sox don't need to bump their offer unless there is another team making a competitive bid for JDM. This is interesting, but likely doesn't affect JDM's market at all.
So the open question might be whether or not Boras is preparing to accept the Sox offer or if he will hold out even longer by telling Dombrowski he wants 145M. If he continues to demand more, Dombrowski should continue to wait. However, if Boras called me up and said "add 1M AAV and we'll accept" - I'd do it.
 

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So the open question might be whether or not Boras is preparing to accept the Sox offer or if he will hold out even longer by telling Dombrowski he wants 145M. If he continues to demand more, Dombrowski should continue to wait. However, if Boras called me up and said "add 1M AAV and we'll accept" - I'd do it.
$145M is irrelevant to the Sox.
 

BigPapiMPD34

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$145M is irrelevant to the Sox.
I'm really just looking into whether or not Boras is planning to accept soon or hold out longer. Boras may decide to try to use Hosmer's contract as a bar for JDM. For example, he may claim that he wants 145M to get JDM the biggest contract. In turn, the Sox should and will say no. In that case, JDM may hold out another week or two before giving in (as opposed to signing tomorrow).

Another words, I'm interested to see if Boras realizes that the Sox 22-25M AAV is reasonable and accepts it this weekend...Or if he tries to scheme up another negotiation strategy and holds out into Spring Training.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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I'm really just looking into whether or not Boras is planning to accept soon or hold out longer. Boras may decide to try to use Hosmer's contract as a bar for JDM. For example, he may claim that he wants 145M to get JDM the biggest contract. In turn, the Sox should and will say no. In that case, JDM may hold out another week or two before giving in (as opposed to signing tomorrow).

Another words, I'm interested to see if Boras realizes that the Sox 22-25M AAV is reasonable and accepts it this weekend...Or if he tries to scheme up another negotiation strategy and holds out into Spring Training.
There have been no indications that there are any other serious bidders for JDM other than the Sox. And no other bidders at all other than the Sox and the Dbacks. Boras can play whatever games he wants, but without actively interested teams, it's all bullshit and everyone knows it. Hosmer's contract changes things not one bit.
 

BigPapiMPD34

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There have been no indications that there are any other serious bidders for JDM other than the Sox. And no other bidders at all other than the Sox and the Dbacks. Boras can play whatever games he wants, but without actively interested teams, it's all bullshit and everyone knows it. Hosmer's contract changes things not one bit.
Exactly. I'm just interested in whether or not he is going to continue to hold out...
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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because if you look at his career he's had several years of replacement-level production.

it's a curious contract for the player, in this case not because of age
It's a really interesting contract and seems to reflect the thinking in baseball that at age 33 / 34, most guys are going to start declining.

What's a win worth these days? $8MM? $9MM?

assuming it's $8MM right now, Padres must be thinking, we sign this guy for 5/$105, that's between 11 and 13 wins over 5 seasons. If he's good to great and he opt-out, that's fine. If he's average to good and he doesn't opt-out, the $13MM per year (with inflation) probably means that he'll earn his contract. And if he sucks, the $13MM shouldn't be an albatross and maybe he's earned that money in prior years.

Pr something like that.
 

Sampo Gida

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because if you look at his career he's had several years of replacement-level production.

it's a curious contract for the player, in this case not because of age
So didn't David Ortiz at that age. Hosmer played in an awful hitters park which discourages elevating the ball. He still looked to have a break out at age 27 which is the same age Ortiz broke out. One of his replacement level seasons he drove in 100+ RBI (ducks). Position adjustments too severe IMO. Anyways, once he starts elevating the ball in a more neutral park his numbers should remain robust. Perhaps more so. Wont predict he is the next Ortiz though.

Teams say they are paying for future performance and not past performance. 18 million AAV through age 35 seems like a reasonable bet. Even if he is only a 2.5 WAR player (average of last 5 seasons) through age 32 its a good deal, and not awful at 2 WAR
 

MikeM

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Hosmer reportedly agreeing to terms with San Diego for 8 years with an opt out after 5. No dollar figure yet.

What does this do for JDM? 8 years is insane.
It should leave Padre fans sitting around wondering why Preller didn't skip moving Myers back to the OF and just go in on JDM at less years instead if he was that hell bent on spending baller money this winter.
 

Hank Scorpio

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It should leave Padre fans sitting around wondering why Preller didn't skip moving Myers back to the OF and just go in on JDM at less years instead if he was that hell bent on spending baller money this winter.
This makes me wonder a bit. If San Diego had been interested in JD Martinez, it would have allowed Boras to potentially demand more from the Red Sox. But let's look at it another way. Boston was always going to be the top bidder for JDM, or at the very least, close to it. But what if the Padres turned around and offered JDM 5/130, and he signed there, after the Red Sox had already signed Moreland. Suddenly it's Hosmer on the outside looking in.

By managing two clients who are potentially competing for spots on some of the same teams, perhaps Boras has to decide which client to "screw over", in order to best line his own pockets.

I mean, if he had to choose between Hosmer getting 8/140, with JDM getting 5/115, versus JDM getting 5/130 and Hosmer getting 4/64 - what's Boras going to do? Maybe it wasn't so much of an issue before, with bidding wars and such, but there seems to be a very limited market for these types of players right now. In this case, it doesn't seem to be very egregious, but I could see a scenario where there may be potential ethical violations and lawsuits.
 

MikeM

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This makes me wonder a bit. If San Diego had been interested in JD Martinez, it would have allowed Boras to potentially demand more from the Red Sox. But let's look at it another way. Boston was always going to be the top bidder for JDM, or at the very least, close to it. But what if the Padres turned around and offered JDM 5/130, and he signed there, after the Red Sox had already signed Moreland. Suddenly it's Hosmer on the outside looking in.

By managing two clients who are potentially competing for spots on some of the same teams, perhaps Boras has to decide which client to "screw over", in order to best line his own pockets.

I mean, if he had to choose between Hosmer getting 8/140, with JDM getting 5/115, versus JDM getting 5/130 and Hosmer getting 4/64 - what's Boras going to do? Maybe it wasn't so much of an issue before, with bidding wars and such, but there seems to be a very limited market for these types of players right now. In this case, it doesn't seem to be very egregious, but I could see a scenario where there may be potential ethical violations and lawsuits.
I wasn't going to really dive too much into that side of the coin here but yeah, if i'm JDM that general thought process is definitely crossing my mind right about now.
 

pokey_reese

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So didn't David Ortiz at that age. Hosmer played in an awful hitters park which discourages elevating the ball. He still looked to have a break out at age 27 which is the same age Ortiz broke out. One of his replacement level seasons he drove in 100+ RBI (ducks). Position adjustments too severe IMO. Anyways, once he starts elevating the ball in a more neutral park his numbers should remain robust. Perhaps more so. Wont predict he is the next Ortiz though.

Teams say they are paying for future performance and not past performance. 18 million AAV through age 35 seems like a reasonable bet. Even if he is only a 2.5 WAR player (average of last 5 seasons) through age 32 its a good deal, and not awful at 2 WAR
That doesn't make sense to me though, because you talk about park effects, and how he should benefit from leaving KC, which would be true in a vacuum, but very possibly isn't in the context of this contract because he's going to Petco, another park that generally suppresses HRs. I think that Hosmer is good, but he has always been a guy who sprays the ball around to all fields, and has a remarkably low fly-ball rate given the current offensive climate. On top of that, he has just about league average hard-hit ball rates for his career, and the only thing that seems to have changed over the last two years is his HR/FB rate, which is suddenly much higher than his previous years and the league average, despite no other apparent improvement to explain it.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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This makes me wonder a bit. If San Diego had been interested in JD Martinez, it would have allowed Boras to potentially demand more from the Red Sox. But let's look at it another way. Boston was always going to be the top bidder for JDM, or at the very least, close to it. But what if the Padres turned around and offered JDM 5/130, and he signed there, after the Red Sox had already signed Moreland. Suddenly it's Hosmer on the outside looking in.

By managing two clients who are potentially competing for spots on some of the same teams, perhaps Boras has to decide which client to "screw over", in order to best line his own pockets.

I mean, if he had to choose between Hosmer getting 8/140, with JDM getting 5/115, versus JDM getting 5/130 and Hosmer getting 4/64 - what's Boras going to do? Maybe it wasn't so much of an issue before, with bidding wars and such, but there seems to be a very limited market for these types of players right now. In this case, it doesn't seem to be very egregious, but I could see a scenario where there may be potential ethical violations and lawsuits.
People still remember the agent works for the client right? While I fully understand that Boras makes promises and pitches and gives ‘value’ assessments to his players, but he doesn’t assign them to teams or make the choice of where they sign for them. He’s the target of this kind of mindset and while I’m not defending him in anyway, it’s getting tiring to see people think he makes decisions for his clients.
 

ZMart100

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Posters are wondering if Boras tried to sell JDM to the Padres hard enough. I don't see what that has to do with making decisions for his clients. I agree, however, that some posters tend to overrate Boras' power.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I’m pretty confident believing that if Scott Boras didn’t have a reputation in the industry for getting every last dollar for his clients, he wouldn’t be Scott Boras. I think it’s kind of dumb to think he prioritizes placement or plays mix and match to max out his commissions. Your mileage may vary. Thank you for explaining what posters are wondering though, that was helpful. To be clear, I’m wondering what people think players motivations are for hiring him or how they think he has puppet strings on his clients.
 

moondog80

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Supposedly he was offered 7/140 a while back. I’m not sure this is a better deal, it’s just dressed up a little to make it look like it is.

EDIT: The opt is nice thing for Hosmer to have of course, but my guess is that he has an excellent chance of being in the position of not being good enough to opt or at that point, but still serviceable where the he doesn’t want the extra year at 4 mil. It’s probably more or less a wash.
 
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Average Reds

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This makes me wonder a bit. If San Diego had been interested in JD Martinez, it would have allowed Boras to potentially demand more from the Red Sox. But let's look at it another way. Boston was always going to be the top bidder for JDM, or at the very least, close to it. But what if the Padres turned around and offered JDM 5/130, and he signed there, after the Red Sox had already signed Moreland. Suddenly it's Hosmer on the outside looking in.

By managing two clients who are potentially competing for spots on some of the same teams, perhaps Boras has to decide which client to "screw over", in order to best line his own pockets.

I mean, if he had to choose between Hosmer getting 8/140, with JDM getting 5/115, versus JDM getting 5/130 and Hosmer getting 4/64 - what's Boras going to do? Maybe it wasn't so much of an issue before, with bidding wars and such, but there seems to be a very limited market for these types of players right now. In this case, it doesn't seem to be very egregious, but I could see a scenario where there may be potential ethical violations and lawsuits.
So long as there is full disclosure, I don’t think there’s an ethical issue. I’d also point out that these sorts conflicts are not uncommon. (Lets look at some recent events in football: Don Yee representing both Brady and Jimmy G.; the same agent representing McDaniels and the GM trying to hire him.)

That doesn’t mean that I think it’s a wise course of action. But so long as there is transparency and the client still wants Boras, then the client gets Boras.
 

chawson

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Alex Speier‏ @alexspeier 2m2 minutes ago
In structuring the Nunez deal in this fashion, it’s functionally a one-year, $6 million guarantee with an AAV (for luxury tax purposes) of $4M in 2018. Sox still have a bit over $20M to sign Martinez while remaining under the $237M threshold that kicks in draft pick penalty.
Can’t imagine a bit over $20M would get it done. Even if someone trades minor leaguers for both Leon and Holt, not sure it gets us to $25M.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Can’t imagine a bit over $20M would get it done. Even if someone trades minor leaguers for both Leon and Holt, not sure it gets us to $25M.
Why? It' pretty clear the Sox have the best offer and it's at 20m. This isn't your older brothers free agency market anymore.
 

chawson

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Why? It' pretty clear the Sox have the best offer and it's at 20m. This isn't your older brothers free agency market anymore.
Not sure there’s evidence that $20M/yr is the best offer, is there? I thought that discussion was about $25M.
 

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Between the creative structures of the Nunez and Hosmer contracts that lower the AAV, I’d be very surprised if DD didn’t have something similar baked into his offer in order to give the team some breathing against the cap this season.

As good a DH improvement as JDM is expected to be, I think it would be very hard to construct the team with no room left for in-season moves without losing draft picks; the Sox could reasonably play the roster as set and retain flexibility to fix inevitable problems that come up in-season.
 

chawson

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Seems notable here that the Sox are aggressively treating Hanley like a first baseman even after they’ve signed a full-time first baseman.


Bradford reported Friday Hanley saying he’d like to play “around 150...158 games” at first.

Still a very limited market for him even getting an NL team to bite. Colorado, maybe? Still seems like the Twins and Royals are the only conceivable landing spots even at a subsidized rate, and I doubt we’re about to help the Twins.
 

RedOctober3829

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Can’t imagine a bit over $20M would get it done. Even if someone trades minor leaguers for both Leon and Holt, not sure it gets us to $25M.
Cot's Tax Tracker has the Red Sox at just over $205 million without Nunez. With Nunez, that is $209 million. So, they have approximately $27 million to spend and stay under the $237 threshold. I imagine they'll want to save a few million for in-season acquisitions. So, I'd say they have enough room to get JD and have some wiggle room for an in-season trade if they get rid of Holt.
 

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Seems notable here that the Sox are aggressively treating Hanley like a first baseman even after they’ve signed a full-time first baseman.


Bradford reported Friday Hanley saying he’d like to play “around 150...158 games” at first.

Still a very limited market for him even getting an NL team to bite. Colorado, maybe? Still seems like the Twins and Royals are the only conceivable landing spots even at a subsidized rate, and I doubt we’re about to help the Twins.
DD isn't going to be afraid to "help the Twins" if it's a move that he feels clearly helps the Sox.
 

chawson

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Cot's Tax Tracker has the Red Sox at just over $205 million without Nunez. With Nunez, that is $209 million. So, they have approximately $27 million to spend and stay under the $237 threshold. I imagine they'll want to save a few million for in-season acquisitions. So, I'd say they have enough room to get JD and have some wiggle room for an in-season trade if they get rid of Holt.
It’s Speier’s reporting I’m responding to here. He’s got the Sox at $218M after Nunez.
 

sean1562

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Also, what else is he going to do the first few days of Spring Training? "Don't worry Hanley, don't take grounders, you are only going to DH this year". There is no harm in having him practice at the position.
 

BigPapiMPD34

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It’s Speier’s reporting I’m responding to here. He’s got the Sox at $218M after Nunez.
One thing to keep in mind is that Speier's luxury tax calculation takes into account 10M of "wiggle room for in-season moves." So when he states that the Sox have "just over 20M" in room for JDM, I don't think he is actually saying that would push the salary all the way up to 237M. His previous article stated that the luxury tax salary was approximately 204M, meaning they are now at 208M with Nunez.
 
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