JBJ: Elite Defender With Some Pop

grimshaw

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I don't know what JBJ's market is anymore so would favor keeping him but demoting him to 4th outfielder if they can get that cheap righty bat. He's not really something a rebuilding team needs because they won't have him much longer and he won't be cheap next year.

And a contender would be crossing their fingers he's a non zero at the plate. I know the signs are there that he can break out of it, but even with his at 'em ball bad luck, he isn't hitting the ball out of the park either. Really, he's only an upgrade for a team with a spacious outfield and no one to patrol it.

I remember laughing at the JBJ for Abreu talk, but I don't think there is much question who the more valuable player is now.
 
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irinmike

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It is late June and JBJ has been given a chance to find his way at the plate without success. He is obviously pressing as his defense is now looking a bit shaky at times. A centerfielder who is hitting 184 with over 200 AB to this point should not be in the lineup.
 

Byrdbrain

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Ok, so Benny goes to Center, JDM is in left. Who is DH?
You’ve downgraded your defense in 2 spots and is your offense better?

If they had a better option or had the chips and salary space to make a deal I’m fine with sitting JBJ. I just don’t see it though.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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It is late June and JBJ has been given a chance to find his way at the plate without success. He is obviously pressing as his defense is now looking a bit shaky at times. A centerfielder who is hitting 184 with over 200 AB to this point should not be in the lineup.
I saw that error last night. I also saw him throw a guy out at the plate.

Has there been other shaky plays out there I missed?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Ok, so Benny goes to Center, JDM is in left. Who is DH?
You’ve downgraded your defense in 2 spots and is your offense better?

If they had a better option or had the chips and salary space to make a deal I’m fine with sitting JBJ. I just don’t see it though.
Adam Lind? I don't think it would be very hard finding a player that can outhit JBJ. It would be harder not to. Whether the trade off is worth it or not is another question but I'm guessing the offense would improve by default.
 

Byrdbrain

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Adam Lind? I don't think it would be very hard finding a player that can outhit JBJ. It would be harder not to. Whether the trade off is worth it or not is another question but I'm guessing the offense would improve by default.
Yeah I'm sure they could get a DH type who could outhit JBJ for very little. I'm not sure Lind is that guy since he's stunk in Pawtucket in over 100 ABs.
Holt could almost certainly outhit him and is probably better than JDM in the field as well but I'd rather see him a 2B where most of the at bats have gone to a player not much better offensively and much worse defensively than JBJ.

I just don't see anyone they can reasonably pick up that would come close to making up for on offense what you are giving away on defense.
Also as Lose states other than that horrific play last night I think it is hard to say his defense has been "shaky".
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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What is the urgency to replace JBJ's bat, anyway? With him in the lineup 88% of the time, the team is #3 in runs scored and #2 in winning percentage in the AL. It's not as though he has been some sort of anchor that has cost them countless games. Absent a reasonable replacement for his defense, he should stay right where he is.
 

BaseballJones

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An .074 BABIP is brutal.

Actually, even more brutal than brutal.
The problem is that at some point, his exit velocity is going to drop again and he'll be putting up even more terrible numbers. This is the stretch where he usually carries the team for a month or so - when he's raking all over the park. Well, he's raking but has almost nothing to show for it. When he stops raking, he's going to be a soft, pathetic, automatic out.
 

bosockboy

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The problem is that at some point, his exit velocity is going to drop again and he'll be putting up even more terrible numbers. This is the stretch where he usually carries the team for a month or so - when he's raking all over the park. Well, he's raking but has almost nothing to show for it. When he stops raking, he's going to be a soft, pathetic, automatic out.
Yep his annual hot stretch is finding gloves.
 

MikeM

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Adam Lind? I don't think it would be very hard finding a player that can outhit JBJ. It would be harder not to. Whether the trade off is worth it or not is another question but I'm guessing the offense would improve by default.
I'd probably be making more noise about this potential possibility if Lind was actually tearing it up while waiting out his stint in AAA, instead of down there OPS'ing under .700. Granted, I'm kinda split on how much damning weight I should put on that given his situation as an established veteran and after what he still showed at the MLB level last year.

Regardless, at this point you have to guess JBJ might find himself a couple more bad weeks away from being DD's salary dump answer at where he's going to shed a couple of million at the trading deadline.
 

Byrdbrain

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An interesting data point:
Sox win percentage noticeably higher with JBJ than without.
Like I said before JBJ hasn't been good but I think Nunez is a much bigger issue, similar offense with much worse defense.
 

Cesar Crespo

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An interesting data point:
Sox win percentage noticeably higher with JBJ than without.
Like I said before JBJ hasn't been good but I think Nunez is a much bigger issue, similar offense with much worse defense.
And what are the raw records? I doubt these stats mean anything at all. JBJ has started 61 games, the Sox have played 74. So if instead of going 8-5 in those 13 games JBJ didn't start, they had gone 9-4, they're winning percentage would be .692.
 

chawson

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An interesting data point:
Sox win percentage noticeably higher with JBJ than without.
Like I said before JBJ hasn't been good but I think Nunez is a much bigger issue, similar offense with much worse defense.
Any news on Esteban Quiroz? He was hitting really well in Portland through a small 15-game sample to open the season. Can’t find anything on him since.

Regardless, we need to be done with Nuñez.
 

strek1

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What is the urgency to replace JBJ's bat, anyway? With him in the lineup 88% of the time, the team is #3 in runs scored and #2 in winning percentage in the AL. It's not as though he has been some sort of anchor that has cost them countless games. Absent a reasonable replacement for his defense, he should stay right where he is.
I think there certainly is a need to improve the bottom of th lineup but I don't know there's much there going to be able to do. One thing they could do to help the offense is minimize the use of Nunez.
 

MakeMineMoxie

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So, no video of the 103.4 MPH throw to get Grossman at the plate last night? I know he made that uncharacteristic error earlier in the inning, but this thing was a fucking frozen rope:

https://www.mlb.com/news/jackie-bradley-jr-makes-incredible-throw/c-282059076
Now THAT'S the JBJ I like to see. His "hitting" this year has been very painful to watch and I'm beginning to wonder if he's ever going to get to that .260-ish level but a play like this shows his value and I can deal with his black hole. Now, just find someone better than Nunez.
 

soxeast

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Now THAT'S the JBJ I like to see. His "hitting" this year has been very painful to watch and I'm beginning to wonder if he's ever going to get to that .260-ish level but a play like this shows his value and I can deal with his black hole. Now, just find someone better than Nunez.
A .181 bat imo doesn't warrant starting playing time. unless you get other bats for other positions.
 

soxeast

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An interesting data point:
Sox win percentage noticeably higher with JBJ than without.
Like I said before JBJ hasn't been good but I think Nunez is a much bigger issue, similar offense with much worse defense.
Why play either if you can find another bat?

IMO the stat with and without JBJ is near useless. The records of ERod and Porcello are better than Sale.

I think in terms of WAR- I could be wrong but JBJ is ranked 23rd. Yes Nunez stinks more. But that isn't saying much.

I'm not saying "dump" JBJ but I would start platooning him if I could.
 

sean1562

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THe bigger question is what do you do next year if he ends the season with an ops south of like .625. At that point I think we need to accept the fact he is a 4th of and not deserving of a starting role
 

Byrdbrain

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Why play either if you can find another bat?

IMO the stat with and without JBJ is near useless. The records of ERod and Porcello are better than Sale.

I think in terms of WAR- I could be wrong but JBJ is ranked 23rd. Yes Nunez stinks more. But that isn't saying much.

I'm not saying "dump" JBJ but I would start platooning him if I could.
Who would you platoon him with and what bat are you going to get?

If DD can find someone then sure have at it but they have no farm system and almost no money to spend.
 

Average Reds

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An .074 BABIP is brutal.

Actually, even more brutal than brutal.
This place should be advanced enough to understand the impact of a BABIP like this on our perception of what a player is doing. JBJ is making good contact. So long as he continues, the hits will come.

Reading the last page of this thread is mystifying.
 

Cesar Crespo

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This place should be advanced enough to understand the impact of a BABIP like this on our perception of what a player is doing. JBJ is making good contact. So long as he continues, the hits will come.

Reading the last page of this thread is mystifying.

People have been saying the same thing for like a year now. How long are we going to wait for those hits to come?
 

Byrdbrain

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I don't think this is the same though.
Yes he hasn't hit in about a year but it's only been a month or so since his batted ball data has looked like this.
In the month of June he literally has the highest percentage of hard hit balls in baseball.

The concern, of course, is that this is his hot streak and he will shortly stop hitting the ball so well and his numbers will just get worse.
 

soxeast

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Who would you platoon him with and what bat are you going to get?

If DD can find someone then sure have at it but they have no farm system and almost no money to spend.
A guy like Valenica could work. On the days JBJ doesn't play Valenica plays 1b or 3b (then have Devers DH on occassion giving him a rest in the field) or Valenica DH's. Then you can have JDM or Holt (when Pedey comes back) play the OF. (I think Holt should be playing nearly every day.) His salary to start the season was $1.2m.

If you prefer to play him vs lefties a bit then you can rest rest on certain Moreland, Devers, and Beni and then have Valencia in there and maybe JDM in LF.

I haven't looked at other names.

Platoon him and wait until he gets hot. With him I'm not sure it's much righty vs lefty anyways. When he gets hot you let it ride.

There's been many predictions using for example BABIP that he's going to break out, and he hasn't. Maybe the shifts with him are taking away hits and because he doesn't go to LF much he won't be much/ he'll be what we see. - AN awful hitter but super for a month when he gets hot.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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Platoon him and wait until he gets hot. With him I'm not sure it's much righty vs lefty anyways. When he gets hot you let it ride.
If it's not a matter of righty vs lefty, how do decide how to platoon him? Just randomly sit him? Play him every other game? Every third game? How does he get hot with intermittent playing time? Does that mean if he goes 3 for 4, he should play the next day but if he's 0 for 4, he sits for three?

Given his batted ball profile over the last few weeks, he needs to be playing regularly and grinding out of his "slump". "Slump" in quotes because he's hitting in extreme bad luck at the moment...hard solid contact right at guys. It's not like he's floundering and looks lost at the plate as he has at times in the past.
 

YTF

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IMO, this is much more than a JBJ problem. If the team were differently constructed we would have much less of an issue with his bat. The redundancy of Holt and Nunez while Lin is also on the 40 man roster, a combined .221 BA from the catching tandem, Dever's struggles, and Swihart having absolutely no business being on an MLB roster right now magnify Bradley's offensive shortcomings. The 6-9 spots in the batting order have been largely brutal for a good part of the season with Bradley's bat being the worst of them all. I think we're starting to realize that offensively speaking Bradley is what he is and it's frustrating to watch, but problem goes deeper than JBJ. There is a huge drop off from 1-5 to 6-9 and when one or two guys in that first part of the order slump, there is little hope that your going to find someone else to step up.
 

JimD

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IMO, this is much more than a JBJ problem. If the team were differently constructed we would have much less of an issue with his bat. The redundancy of Holt and Nunez while Lin is also on the 40 man roster, a combined .221 BA from the catching tandem, Dever's struggles, and Swihart having absolutely no business being on an MLB roster right now magnify Bradley's offensive shortcomings.
What also magnifies this issue greatly is Pedroia being nowhere close to returning to his normal level of production. I otherwise don't have an issue with Holt/Nunez/Lin because Nunez's deal looked like a steal last winter and gave DD the option to potentially move Holt if he returned to his own past level of performance. The weak offense at the catching position wouldn't be as much of an issue with even an improving Pedroia and a 'normal' amount of JBJ streakiness.
 

Cesar Crespo

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LIn's been hitting pretty well in AAA and has a pretty big split. .310/.365/.483 vs R.

Sucks he's basically the same thing as Brock Holt.
 

tonyarmasjr

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What also magnifies this issue greatly is Pedroia being nowhere close to returning to his normal level of production. I otherwise don't have an issue with Holt/Nunez/Lin because Nunez's deal looked like a steal last winter and gave DD the option to potentially move Holt if he returned to his own past level of performance. The weak offense at the catching position wouldn't be as much of an issue with even an improving Pedroia and a 'normal' amount of JBJ streakiness.
For me, there's a lot of disappointment in/fault with Nunez, Devers, and Vazquez (as much as JBJ) when it comes to the bottom of the lineup. Approaching the All-Star break now, there was very little, if anything, that would have suggested those three would be as bad as they have been. Nunez had 2300 MLB PA coming into the year, with his 97 wRC+ floating between 80 and 112 from year to year. He's currently at a 66. Devers was expected to come back to earth in his first full season after his initial torrid start. I expect he'll finish around league average for the year, but he's currently at an 83 wRC+. Vazquez may have had an unsustainably high BABIP last year that inflated his numbers a bit, but I thought he still would continue to grow as a hitter. Instead, he's having the worst season of his professional career (including the minors) across the board. The only stat that isn't basically at a career-low level is his K rate. I didn't expect any of them to set the world on fire, but they've all been definitive negatives compared to what could have been expected.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't think Devers is in the same category of bad as JBJ, Nunez and the catchers have been. I also think people are far more willing to accept a black hole at the C spot than CF and that it would also cost more to upgrade. Another big factor is that replacing JBJ doesn't require you to replace him with a CF, just a bat. If you want Nunez out of the lineup, you need to replace him with a 2b. If you want Vaz/Leon replaced, you need to acquire a catcher.

To add more context to the Lin comment I made earlier: Last 22 games and 100 PA: .351/.390/.543. Season line at Pawtucket is now .297/.347/.444 in 174 PA.

GO/AO ratio

2012: 1.52
2013: 1.20
2014: 1.53
2015: 1.59
2016: 1.59
2017: 0.80
2018: 0.70

His breakout year was in 2017, which coincided with a complete change in batting approach. It looks like he was starting to revert back to form in his stint at AAA last year but that doesn't appear to be the case. Lin plays 2b, 3b, SS, CF and has the arm strength to play RF and LF. People have mentioned him as possible 2b depth but if he continues to perform in AAA, he could be OF/CF depth just as well.
 

reggiecleveland

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And what are the raw records? I doubt these stats mean anything at all. JBJ has started 61 games, the Sox have played 74. So if instead of going 8-5 in those 13 games JBJ didn't start, they had gone 9-4, they're winning percentage would be .692.
On the radio they were talking about the great winning percentage when Holt starts. The Sox are 8-9 vs LHP. Not surprising the LH hitters have a higher winning % for their starts.
 

mfried

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His (Lin's) breakout year was in 2017, which coincided with a complete change in batting approach. It looks like he was starting to revert back to form in his stint at AAA last year but that doesn't appear to be the case. Lin plays 2b, 3b, SS, CF and has the arm strength to play RF and LF. People have mentioned him as possible 2b depth but if he continues to perform in AAA, he could be OF/CF depth just as well.

#234bosox79, Today at 11:36 AM
He can't be a platoon with JBJ, but how about Nunez?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He can't be a platoon with JBJ, but how about Nunez?
Why bring Lin up to platoon with Nunez when that's already Holt's primary job?

Lin is great and all, but he's fine right where he is. The team is woefully short on positional depth beyond the 25-man roster, but he's ideal as the first man up due to his defensive flexibility. He is the first call should any of 12 of the 13 position players on the big club go on the DL (I think if Moreland goes down, the first call is Travis...or Lind).
 

strek1

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On the radio they were talking about the great winning percentage when Holt starts. The Sox are 8-9 vs LHP. Not surprising the LH hitters have a higher winning % for their starts.
But HOLT has not even close to started all the games vs righties. Nunez has gotten an awful lot of them plus Holt was hurt for a while. So there's another breakdown to be made. I just don't know what it is.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I, too, believe that Holt should be always be starting at 2b against RHP, over Nunez - Holt is better, with the bat, with the glove, range and on the bases. Ok to have Nunez start at 2b against LHP, or at 3b when Devers needs a day off.
 

mfried

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I can't believe that Nunez can't find a big piece of his hitting prowess of last season. You're right about Lin and Holt - too much duplication there.
 

joe dokes

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But HOLT has not even close to started all the games vs righties. Nunez has gotten an awful lot of them plus Holt was hurt for a while. So there's another breakdown to be made. I just don't know what it is.
I think that's changing.
 

judyb

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Cora does seem to start Holt at 2B more often when Porcello starts, and lately when Wright does, they have higher GB%s than the other starters. So, he does seem to have noticed that Holt's better defensively at 2B.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Cora does seem to start Holt at 2B more often when Porcello starts, and lately when Wright does, they have higher GB%s than the other starters. So, he does seem to have noticed that Holt's better defensively at 2B.
Well, Cora's eyes work, so there's that.
 

soxeast

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If it's not a matter of righty vs lefty, how do decide how to platoon him? Just randomly sit him? Play him every other game? Every third game? How does he get hot with intermittent playing time? Does that mean if he goes 3 for 4, he should play the next day but if he's 0 for 4, he sits for three?

Given his batted ball profile over the last few weeks, he needs to be playing regularly and grinding out of his "slump". "Slump" in quotes because he's hitting in extreme bad luck at the moment...hard solid contact right at guys. It's not like he's floundering and looks lost at the plate as he has at times in the past.
He's bad at both but there iis probably a type of pitcher that hurts him more too. But the answer is easy:

1-- If he hits only vs righties then you play "Valencia" vs lefties. It's a platoon.
2-- If he hits only vs lefties then you play JBJ and "Valenica" together. Valencia can sub for either Moreland or Devers. Plus the inevitable days Beni gets a break you can have both.

Let him "grind" his at bats as a platoon until the grinding starts to produce results (hits). Then let it ride. If he's hitting the ball hard into the strength of other team's shifts then he's not going to be very productive other than a rare hot spell. I don't think his lack of hits is is bad luck though I just don't think he's very good and he's probably hit his peak. But I have no problem "waiting" for him because of his awesome defense and on defense he is a joy to watch. I just prefer to wait for him as a platoon now.
 
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chawson

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I, too, believe that Holt should be always be starting at 2b against RHP, over Nunez - Holt is better, with the bat, with the glove, range and on the bases. Ok to have Nunez start at 2b against LHP, or at 3b when Devers needs a day off.
This is fundamentally wrong, they both have reverse splits. Nuñez is atrocious against lefties and was significantly worse against them last year too. Holt’s reverse split and is minor but it’s still well established that he’s better against LHP over his career.

Nuñez honestly shouldn’t start against another left-hander this season.
 

williams_482

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This is fundamentally wrong, they both have reverse splits. Nuñez is atrocious against lefties and was significantly worse against them last year too. Holt’s reverse split and is minor but it’s still well established that he’s better against LHP over his career.

Nuñez honestly shouldn’t start against another left-hander this season.
Okay, two parts for this.

First, neither Nunez nor Holt has enough PAs that we should be making significant inferences from their observed platoon splits. Nunez has 835 PAs against lefties in his career, we need to regress this with annother 2,000 "average split" PAs. Holt has 434 PAs, which should be regressed with annother 1,000 PAs. Neither has a split extreme enough to shine though that kind of regression.

Second, neither Nunez nor Holt appears to have a reverse split of you look at the peripherals instead of just their slash lines.

Nunez vs L: 4.7% BB%, 12.8% K%, .142 ISO, .274 BABiP
Nunez vs R: 4.8% BB%, 13.8% K%, .124 ISO, .321 BABiP

Holt vs L: 9.4% BB%, 24.2% K%, .089 ISO, .378 BABiP
Holt vs R: 8.1% BB%, 16.7% K%, .100 ISO, .312 BABiP

Those look like pretty normal lefty/righty splits, masked by 47 and 66 point BABiP differences.
 

chawson

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Okay, two parts for this.

First, neither Nunez nor Holt has enough PAs that we should be making significant inferences from their observed platoon splits. Nunez has 835 PAs against lefties in his career, we need to regress this with annother 2,000 "average split" PAs. Holt has 434 PAs, which should be regressed with annother 1,000 PAs. Neither has a split extreme enough to shine though that kind of regression.

Second, neither Nunez nor Holt appears to have a reverse split of you look at the peripherals instead of just their slash lines.

Nunez vs L: 4.7% BB%, 12.8% K%, .142 ISO, .274 BABiP
Nunez vs R: 4.8% BB%, 13.8% K%, .124 ISO, .321 BABiP

Holt vs L: 9.4% BB%, 24.2% K%, .089 ISO, .378 BABiP
Holt vs R: 8.1% BB%, 16.7% K%, .100 ISO, .312 BABiP

Those look like pretty normal lefty/righty splits, masked by 47 and 66 point BABiP differences.
One of Nunez's quirks last year was his relative strength vs. RHP — he led our team against them in wOBA, which is bizarre. His L/R splits are more pronounced in recent years (and his numbers against lefties this year are unplayable, which is perhaps injury-related). But you're right, I may have overstated the difference.

You could make an argument that a lot of Holt's success is BABIP-driven, but to the extent that he's a useful hitter at all, he's useful against lefties.
 
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