Jaylen Brown - underrated?

[bakahump]

Its incredibly SSS but what is the impression of JB in the playoffs?

I had hoped that with ITs injury he might "step up" even a tad but it seems that after a good (impressive?) Washington Series, against the Cavs (and whoever this Lebron guy is) he has been "less then impressive".

What have you seen that you liked?
What have you seen that still worries you?
Does anything in the playoffs give you any thoughts about the future of Jaylen?
Possession by possession has he done anything defensively noteworthy against Lebron? Glimmers? (I havent watched every game/play. And NOT doing well against Lebron isnt necessarily damning.)

Dont take this as that I am "down" on JB. I am excited and hopeful to see growth next year. Just curious what others think.

 

[Koufax]

To my eyes he was credible against LeBron, but ultimately made to look like a rookie as LeBron faked him out with his moves. On offense he's been Jeff Green-like -- almost not there, but flashing occasional talent. It's been a rough series for him - rookie, meet a team full of bona fide veteran all stars.

 

[DJnVa]

He's shooting almost 58% against Cleveland, and yes, most of his damage has been done in the losses, but he's like 15th on the list of any issues.

All these minutes in big games are huge.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Hard to get a good feel for Jaylen since this Cavs series hasn't exactly been well contested but I've been impressed with his scoring the last few games. He did have a dud in game 3 though.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

In the playoffs he's shown that he can already do a reasonable job defending smaller quicker guys and bigger stronger guys. Almost don't even care about anything else. I see the makings of a very strong defensive player, which is pretty much all that is being asked of him most of the time in the playoffs, which in itself is impressive.

As Drew mentions, the experience is huge. How long is it going to take most other lotto picks to even play in the playoffs? What about the second round? Third round? He's been out there actually helping win playoff games (against Washington in particular). He's got a ton of fire and expect this will help him work his ass off this summer and come back much better.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I'm still excited that JB is going to be a really really good player this year. As stated above, he's shown to be a tough and versatile defender. He's also shown he can finish in traffic and his turn-around is pretty much unblockable. If he can develop his jump shot - watch out.

And I think he knows that landing in Boston and having to fight for playing time is a good thing for him. For example - and while I know this is Byron Scott and all - but there's a lengthy article about Scott's new book in the OC Register (link here: http://www.ocregister.com/2017/05/24/byron-scott-has-no-regrets-about-how-he-handled-his-time-as-lakers-coach/). He comments on his coaching Randle, Russell, and Clarkson, and he gets to a point that is made every so often on this board: handing playing time to NBA rookies on bad teams isn't always productive. Here's the clip:

Scott has different feelings about Russell. He said the then-rookie’s demotion was partly because he frequently arrived to the Lakers’ facility only minutes before practice started. So, Scott eventually required his young players to complete individual workouts 30 minutes before and after practice.

Though Walton has given Russell positive reinforcement regarding his play and has seen him participate in offseason workouts, he often mentioned Russell’s ongoing process in establishing a routine. Despite Russell averaging 15.6 points, 4.8 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.4 steals during his second season, Johnson and Pelinka instructed him to focus on improving his consistency, conditioning and leadership.

“I don’t know if his work ethic has gotten any better. Some of the people I’ve talked to in the organization said that it hasn’t,” Scott said of Russell. “I just wish him all the best. The maturity level will catch up to him sooner or later when he realizes it’s an honor and a privilege to be in the NBA and be in the position that he’s in. He has to take full advantage of it.”​

 

[Sam Ray Not]

May have been mentioned, but I see a more fluid and less robotic Harrison Barnes.

HB as a 20 y.o. rookie (per 36): 13.1 pts on .526 ts / 5.8 reb / 1.7 ast / 0.9 stl / 0.2 blk / 1.8 tov (+ some invaluable playoff experience)
JB as a 20 y.o. rookie (per 36): 13.8 pts on .539 ts / 5.9 reb / 1.7 ast / 0.9 stl / 0.5 blk / 1.8 tov (+ some invaluable playoff experience)

 

[sezwho]

I have seen JB show flashes of athletic excellence and strong confidence at both ends of the floor. He has confidence to take and make big jumpers and/or attack the basket with authority then D up on Bron on the other end and do a creditable job. On the minus side, he has definitely gotten lost on rotations and been made to look foolish a couple times (and for which Brad has a predictably quick hook).

If he can bring the high level play and make the correct rotations on a more consistent basis, both of which I'm pretty optimistic he will do, then we have a real asset. My biggest take away is that he hasn't shrunk from the moment and his athleticism has held up against elite playoff competition.

 

[Kid T]

Love his first step and ability to finish at the rim, but he occasionally shows off how much of a rookie he is (like fouling someone with less than 2 seconds left on the shot clock). I do like his level of effort though - it's the playoffs no reason to hold anything back

 

[slamminsammya]

His handle is the biggest impediment to long term success for me. He looks like he can shoot, move, finish etc. But without a handle he will forever be a guy limited to spotup 3s or transition buckets. So that is what I would really like to see improve.

 

[sezwho]

His handle is the biggest impediment to long term success for me. He looks like he can shoot, move, finish etc. But without a handle he will forever be a guy limited to spotup 3s or transition buckets. So that is what I would really like to see improve.

The handle has been a repeated criticism for JB, and he does seem to trip over himself on occasion. I suspect this is one of the b-ball skills which could be most easily improved with hard work.

 

[DJnVa]

I think so too. It's a case of the game needing to slow down for him.

I had always heard that for college guys, the biggest improvement was from freshman to sophomore year. JB spent his sophomore year in the NBA, playing on a 53 win team, in the playoffs. Can't wait to see what he brings next season.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I think so too. It's a case of the game needing to slow down for him.

I had always heard that for college guys, the biggest improvement was from freshman to sophomore year. JB spent his sophomore year in the NBA, playing on a 53 win team, in the playoffs. Can't wait to see what he brings next season.

I've always felt this was either equally telling or even moreso at the professional level after a season of adjusting to new rules and competing against grown men. It's amazing what 3-4 months of reflection and preparation can do for a second year player in both the NBA and the NCAA. I like to view it as an 82 game pre-season before a players real career begins as much of this has to do with opportunities.....it is rare when a rookie, especially a one-and-done rookie, factors into an NBA teams plans as a rookie on quality teams. Jaylen is a perfect example......next year he will go into the season with a defined role which he established in his rookie season.

 

[DJnVa]

I hope we get an article in the next week or two with some quotes from JB and Brad Stevens on how they thought this year went and what he wants to do in off-season. He seems to get it.

 

[Imbricus]

I'm a big Jaylen fan. Everyone complains about his handle; I thought coming out of college the consensus was his ball handling was ok, but not awful? Sometimes he makes the dumb rookie mistakes -- forgetting where his man is on defense, or jumping four feet in the air on a pump fake. I think partly he needs confidence; sometimes he plays too tentative. Some of this may be due to Stevens yanking him quickly when he does something dumb. Also the rookie stupid-foul thing causes problems sometimes.

Otherwise, so far in a way he reminds me a bit of Jeff Green -- can be brilliant one night; can disappear the next. But he seems to have an incredible work ethic and says things I never heard from Green. The optimist in me says the streakiness is just due to being a rookie. When he has a good game, he really has a good game.

 

[JCizzle]

He needs to work on his FT game too since he is so good at getting to the rim and drawing contact. 69% is fine, but hopefully he can improve to something like 75% next year and plateau around 80%. The 69% is a minor bump from 65% in college.

I was very impressed by his defensive effort by the end of the year.

 

[Imbricus]

That's a good point on his defensive skills. That's tremendously valuable to have a guy who can give you solid, or even lock-down defense. Also his free-throw shooting admittedly needs work but his FG percentage was 45.4% with 34.1% from three-point range. Jamal Murray, known as a shooter, was 40.4%/33.4%. (Of course Brown is getting more dunks/layups on the FG, but that doesn't impact the three-point stat.)

 

[BaseballJones]

I think so too. It's a case of the game needing to slow down for him.

I had always heard that for college guys, the biggest improvement was from freshman to sophomore year. JB spent his sophomore year in the NBA, playing on a 53 win team, in the playoffs. Can't wait to see what he brings next season.

I believe the cornerstones for the next great Celtics team will be Brown and Fultz, with next year's Brooklyn pick, Yabu, and Zizic playing key supporting roles, occasionally looking like stars, but Brown and Fultz being the studs.

 

[smastroyin]

I was pretty high on Brown going into February or so, but his rookie wall was a little off-putting. Now, it's really hard to tell on a competitive team sometimes, maybe he was better off with more minutes or being allowed to exploit his strengths instead of work on his weaknesses, etc.

I'm not saying he's a bust, I'm saying that nothing I've seen has really reduced the wide range of possible outcomes for him. He might be a cornerstone player at the wing, he might be a JAG. I still think either possibility is open. He probably isn't going to bust entirely, and that's something, but not enough that I'm counting on him being a key part of the next championship.

 

[DJnVa]

I was pretty high on Brown going into February or so, but his rookie wall was a little off-putting.

Can you expand on this?

Because Feb, Mar, and April he played more minutes/game than any other month, and (excluding 3 games in Oct) Feb/Mar were his 2 best shooting months (.492 and .485).

Oct: 17.3 minutes (only 3 games)
Nov: 13.3 .379/.333
Dec: 12.9 .477/.308
Jan: 16.4 .394/.263
Feb: 25.6 .492/.455
Mar: 20.1 .485/.325
Apr: 20.0 .450/.375

He played more and shot better in the last few months of the season.

 

[smastroyin]

Several things.

His usage did go up on offense. But, I just had the feeling every time he was on the floor in the later part of the season that the other team would be better, and it wasn't just because he was playing with the bench against starters, etc., although that does have something to do with it (for instance, when he was starting in place of the injured Bradley, he seemed more in control) His defense I think got to be somewhat more clueless rather than getting better. Again, various rotations of teammates maybe has something to do with that, and he's a rookie. So I'm not down on him. I'm just not ready to declare him a cornerstone like some people seem to be.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Several things.

His usage did go up on offense. But, I just had the feeling every time he was on the floor in the later part of the season that the other team would be better, and it wasn't just because he was playing with the bench against starters, etc., although that does have something to do with it (for instance, when he was starting in place of the injured Bradley, he seemed more in control) His defense I think got to be somewhat more clueless rather than getting better. Again, various rotations of teammates maybe has something to do with that, and he's a rookie. So I'm not down on him. I'm just not ready to declare him a cornerstone like some people seem to be.

I don't think you need to look any farther than the bolded. Not just a rookie but a one and done, who under normal circumstances would have been contributing to some team's 25 win season.

Not to say that he's guaranteed to improve to a desired level, but I think you pretty much have to wait to see how things look in year 2 before you can really start to judge.

 

[JCizzle]

Not that he's going to bad mouth the kid, but Gerald with some high praise.

 

[smastroyin]

Not to say that he's guaranteed to improve to a desired level, but I think you pretty much have to wait to see how things look in year 2 before you can really start to judge.

Yes, my point is only to countermand those who think he showed enough that he has a higher ceiling now than he did as a draftee. He has probably established a short term floor and not much else. It's not enough to convince me he's going to be a big dog on the next championship team.

Maybe some of these thoughts are coming from people who thought he would be terrible and are surprised, though.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I'm not saying he's a bust, I'm saying that nothing I've seen has really reduced the wide range of possible outcomes for him. He might be a cornerstone player at the wing, he might be a JAG. I still think either possibility is open. He probably isn't going to bust entirely, and that's something, but not enough that I'm counting on him being a key part of the next championship.

I'm surprised you're saying this. To me, he's established himself - at the very least - as a very valuable 3&D player. Granted SSS and all but he shot 44.4% (8-18) from the right corner and 47.8% (11-23) from the left corner. While he didn't make all of the rotations, it looked like Brad was using a pretty complicated scheme so if he went somewhere he didn't have to switch as much - seems to me that he can do everything Otto Porter can and some things Porter can't.

I have no idea whether he'll be the multiple year All-Star we all dream about, but JB is going to be in the league for a long time and odds are that at some point someone's going to give him a max contract.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I hope we get an article in the next week or two with some quotes from JB and Brad Stevens on how they thought this year went and what he wants to do in off-season. He seems to get it.

Here's one such article: http://nesn.com/2017/05/rookie-jaylen-brown-shows-signs-of-stardom-in-celtics-nba-playoff-run/. One part of his summer plan:

That bad taste will motivate Brown entering the summer, where he’ll work on “everything” in his game with the hopes of making a larger impact for the Celtics in his sophomore season. “I think I’m an all-around basketball player. Shooting — a lot of people doubted my jump-shooting ability this year and still doubting. I’m going to keep improving every year, that’s my goal,” Brown said. “Ball-handling, I want to really focus on making plays for others. Just continue to get better in every aspect of my game. I don’t consider myself a position. I just consider myself a basketball player.”
​

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Yes, my point is only to countermand those who think he showed enough that he has a higher ceiling now than he did as a draftee. He has probably established a short term floor and not much else. It's not enough to convince me he's going to be a big dog on the next championship team.

Maybe some of these thoughts are coming from people who thought he would be terrible and are surprised, though.

Yeah, if he's a puzzle, then this year was kind of like confirming that you have all 1000 pieces and have connected all the outside ones.

To your last point, I do think that some and probably even a lot of people thought that this would practically be a full red shirt year for him a la Rozier last year, including time in Maine. Hard to tell, though, as I think too that a lot of people were expecting Butler or just some kind of fireworks at the draft and were generally down on the situation.

 

[smastroyin]

Let's be fair to me here. All I'm saying is I'm not writing him in as the second best or best player on the next Celtics championship team, which is the direction the conversation seemed to be going. He might be that guy, or he might be Jae Crowder (a player I love more than almost anyone on this board) with a bit more length, which is still valuable. Or he might be another Jeff Green. Again, valuable in the right usage, but not a cornerstone, and probably not a max player.

 

[Imbricus]

He might be that guy, or he might be Jae Crowder (a player I love more than almost anyone on this board)

Hell, to my eye, he's already blown through the Jae Crowder floor.

 

[chilidawg]

Hell, to my eye, he's already blown through the Jae Crowder floor.

His ability to finish at the rim and in transition is already better than Crowder's, and his spot up shooting is close. His defense shows flashes, but definitely has a way to go. I don't know that he'll ever be as physical as Crowder, but James is probably the only other SF who is.

 

[Imbricus]

By that, I meant more that in another two to three years, I think he's going to be much more valuable than a Jae Crowder. But there are a lot of areas where he needs to improve, agreed. Partly I favor Brown because he's a great leaper; Crowder is like a guy from a low-gravity planet -- muscled like a fullback, and he doesn't get that vertical. But clearly, right now, you're not going to start Brown over Crowder.

 

[Koufax]

Please don't mention Jaylen Brown and Jeff Green in the same sentence. If Jaylen develops a serious interest in weed and mushrooms, maybe he turns into Jeff Green. I'm hoping for much more than that from him.

 

[Sprowl]

I think Brown reined in his free-lancing after December, probably under instructions from Stevens and Smart ("Run the offense!"). That means his shaky ballhandling has been less exposed in 2017, as he has set up camp on the weakside corner for open threes (where he is already pretty good) and backdoor cuts to the hoop, where he can be spectacular. He stopped bricking layups by February, and has become a pretty good finisher.

I suspect that his ballhandling will become more controlled next year, and he'll start to flash the spin moves that got him to the hoop at Berkeley. Team defense probably won't be up to Stevens' satisfaction until 2019, however...

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Let's be fair to me here. All I'm saying is I'm not writing him in as the second best or best player on the next Celtics championship team, which is the direction the conversation seemed to be going. He might be that guy, or he might be Jae Crowder (a player I love more than almost anyone on this board) with a bit more length, which is still valuable. Or he might be another Jeff Green. Again, valuable in the right usage, but not a cornerstone, and probably not a max player.

I think this is a good point. I don't think he'll ever be Crowder (they are just too physically different), but Crowder type value is maybe a reasonable worst case scenario. (And I say this as another big fan of Crowder, whom I hope is part of the team's near future even though he is strting to look like he may be an odd man out).

I think we need to see more of Jaylen to have a better sense of what he will be. I was very impressed with him this year, but a lot of that may be due to all of the negative talk about him around draft time, which, to me, made him sound like an impressive raw athlete with no feel for the game of basketball. (I think he's put that possibility to rest).

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I think this is a good point. I don't think he'll ever be Crowder (they are just too physically different), but Crowder type value is maybe a reasonable worst case scenario. (And I say this as another big fan of Crowder, whom I hope is part of the team's near future even though he is strting to look like he may be an odd man out).

I think we need to see more of Jaylen to have a better sense of what he will be. I was very impressed with him this year, but a lot of that may be due to all of the negative talk about him around draft time, which, to me, made him sound like an impressive raw athlete with no feel for the game of basketball. (I think he's put that possibility to rest).

Most of the negative talk about Jaylen was fought and fought hard by several of us who watched many of his Cal games and recognized the challenges he faced in a pretty dysfunctional situation where he was asked to play beyond what he should have been in a more structured setting. The talk about him being unable to shoot was one of them.

Jaylen is still only 20 years old after finishing a season showing promise in the NBA. When comparing trajectories, at the same age entering this season Jae Crowder was transferring from South Georgia College (or something like that) to his second Junior College still without a D-1 offer on his table. Too many times on message boards we discuss players in their young 20's as finished products while ignoring the yuge developmental growth during ages 22-26.

 

[LondonSox]

Jalen wasn't great at college. It was all about tools. And what a landing spot he got.

He still plays bad defense to me, undisciplined is the main issue. He still turns the ball over a lot too. Both things that should be improvable though.

As for everyone so excited, on a number one seed he had a negative rpm, both before and after the all star break.

His floor is clearly higher as it was, complete flame out, and I doubt many would expect that.
I think people putting him as a cornerstone of a franchise with Fultz are a little ahead of themselves. I think he's as likely to be a shrug player as anything. But it was and is the best situation for him.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Jaylen is still only 20 years old after finishing a season showing promise in the NBA. When comparing trajectories, at the same age entering this season Jae Crowder was transferring from South Georgia College (or something like that) to his second Junior College still without a D-1 offer on his table. Too many times on message boards we discuss players in their young 20's as finished products while ignoring the yuge developmental growth during ages 22-26.

That's why I would say Crowder is his floor/worst case scenario in terms of value.

 

[slamminsammya]

That's why I would say Crowder is his floor/worst case scenario in terms of value.

A bit gauche to posit that a highly above average starter is his floor no?

 

[Eddie Jurak]

A bit gauche to posit that a highly above average starter is his floor no?

Seems reasonable to me, for the reason @HomeRunBaker points out - we are comparing Jaylen's NBA baptism to Crowder's NBA peak.

 

[bowiac]

A bit gauche to posit that a highly above average starter is his floor no?

Agreed. Brown has more upside to be sure, but I think his median outcome is that he'll never be as good as Crowder.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Agreed. Brown has more upside to be sure, but I think his median outcome is that he'll never be as good as Crowder.

If Jaylen never becomes a below average starting 3 in this league then he will be considered a massive bust. After the growth he's shown as a one-and-done rookie the chances of him not surpassing Crowder in the next 4-5 years seem pretty remote to me.

As for everyone so excited, on a number one seed he had a negative rpm, both before and after the all star break.

He's 20 years old competing against grown men who have been through the ropes in this league, he is supposed to have a negative rpm.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Seems to me that Brown's floor (other than injury) is something like Otto Porter, who had a RPM of -3.49 in 2013-14, 1.23 in 2014-15, 1.51 in 2015-16, and 3.57 this year.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Seems to me that Brown's floor (other than injury) is something like Otto Porter, who had a RPM of -3.49 in 2013-14, 1.23 in 2014-15, 1.51 in 2015-16, and 3.57 this year.

History is loaded with rookies who had bad RPMs in their rookie year who never developed into much. Using a guy like Porter, who's an leading candidate for Most Improved Player this year, and I suspect an outlier in terms of his growth so far, as his floor seems awfully ambitious to me in terms of worst-case development expectation. I thought Stanley Johnson was a decent comp at the time of the draft, and while he generally put up better numbers in his rookie year than Brown did, he didn't show much improvement at all this year. Jeff Green's a cautionary tale of a skilled, athletic guy who never put it together. I'm excited about Jaylen's ceiling- he's in a great situation to continue to improve, I'm encouraged by some stuff that I've seen on the court, and it sounds like he's got the right mindset- but I think you're significantly overstating his floor here.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

History is loaded with rookies who had bad RPMs in their rookie year who never developed into much. Using a guy like Porter, who's an leading candidate for Most Improved Player this year, and I suspect an outlier in terms of his growth so far, as his floor seems awfully ambitious to me in terms of worst-case development expectation. I thought Stanley Johnson was a decent comp at the time of the draft, and while he generally put up better numbers in his rookie year than Brown did, he didn't show much improvement at all this year. Jeff Green's a cautionary tale of a skilled, athletic guy who never put it together. I'm excited about Jaylen's ceiling- he's in a great situation to continue to improve, I'm encouraged by some stuff that I've seen on the court, and it sounds like he's got the right mindset- but I think you're significantly overstating his floor here.

I agree that is a tough "floor" as Porter has progressed pretty much as expected for a player drafted where he was. This is what we can expect from Brown based on his age and what we've seen during his rookie year however that isn't what I'd say his "floor" would be.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I'm curious whether the stat folks (@bowiac ?) have looked at the impact of team success on draft pick performance trends.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

History is loaded with rookies who had bad RPMs in their rookie year who never developed into much. Using a guy like Porter, who's an leading candidate for Most Improved Player this year, and I suspect an outlier in terms of his growth so far, as his floor seems awfully ambitious to me in terms of worst-case development expectation. I thought Stanley Johnson was a decent comp at the time of the draft, and while he generally put up better numbers in his rookie year than Brown did, he didn't show much improvement at all this year. Jeff Green's a cautionary tale of a skilled, athletic guy who never put it together. I'm excited about Jaylen's ceiling- he's in a great situation to continue to improve, I'm encouraged by some stuff that I've seen on the court, and it sounds like he's got the right mindset- but I think you're significantly overstating his floor here.

Maybe I am but again barring injury, I think Jaylen's floor is to be one of the best 3&D guys in the league. Assuming you agree that Jaylen has shown that he can play a pretty high level of individual defense like Porter (leaving out things like rotations, which the 'Zards didn't do very well), to turn Jaylen into Otto Porter basically means turning this shot chart

Spoiler: Spoiler

into this shot chart:

Spoiler: spoiler2

which doesn't seem very far fetched to me, particularly since Porter doesn't have much of a handle and his jump shot is more a product of hard work than great mechanics (https://theringer.com/wizards-otto-porter-jr-breakout-season-shooting-182800da9510).

And as for Stanley Johnson's second season, while I don't see him play at all, it strikes me as not a a good comp for two reasons: (1) he apparently drastically overhauled his shot before the start of the season, and (2) he was in Van Gundy's doghouse for at least a good bit of the year.

Maybe Porter is a bit optimistic but my bigger point is that athletic wings who can guard multiple positions and hit three pointers are incredibly valuable in today's NBA and Jaylen has already shown to me that he has the skills to be one of the best at that.

 

[the moops]

I think Jaylen's floor is to be one of the best 3&D guys in the league.

Sorry, but this is kind of ridiculous. His floor is way, way lower than "one of the best" anything. He had a nice rookie year. He could improve a little bit every year and still have a floor way below what you are projecting.

 

[lexrageorge]

I have to believe that if the Celtics believe that the #3 overall pick in the draft has an expected trajectory (not floor) of turning into a poor-man's version of Jae Crowder, Brown will be out of here the first decent trade proposal Ainge receives.

 

[Fishy1]

History is loaded with rookies who had bad RPMs in their rookie year who never developed into much. Using a guy like Porter, who's an leading candidate for Most Improved Player this year, and I suspect an outlier in terms of his growth so far, as his floor seems awfully ambitious to me in terms of worst-case development expectation. I thought Stanley Johnson was a decent comp at the time of the draft, and while he generally put up better numbers in his rookie year than Brown did, he didn't show much improvement at all this year. Jeff Green's a cautionary tale of a skilled, athletic guy who never put it together. I'm excited about Jaylen's ceiling- he's in a great situation to continue to improve, I'm encouraged by some stuff that I've seen on the court, and it sounds like he's got the right mindset- but I think you're significantly overstating his floor here.

I'm not much into forecasting guys, but Stanley Johnson shot sub-40% from the field his rookie year and and ~35% from the field his second year. He's a full 10% worse around the basket than Jaylen. Athletically he's a good comp, but he's about as good of a shooter as Marcus.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I'm curious whether the stat folks (@bowiac ?) have looked at the impact of team success on draft pick performance trends.

I am patchy on the most recent stat analysis; however, when we were discussing Avery Bradley a couple years ago the two big gaps in the stat community around young players were:

1) recognizing the difference between current performance (RPM, etc. and individual skills) and projectable future performance (Bradley, in the end, was both a better and different player than people thought back then)
2) isolating player skill from team strength and fit of player's role (your question, taken down a level)

I know there's been quality retro analysis of draft picks that focuses on specific attributes---FT%, steals, etc. I do not know that there's been particularly comprehensive analysis done on how players evolve and what year one can tell us about their evolution, in particular within the team quality context. We had a discussion here about how Spurs players likely benefit from 'the infrastructure' as well as the team's drafting acumen, and I suspect that's a very difficult thing to study (or hypotheses to test, if you prefer that framing)