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Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by Koufax, Jan 17, 2017.
Yeah, I think a lot of initials got jumbled up there. Is he saying that Jaylen is playing better than Tatum? That might be true, at least recently.
This is correct. Sorry, lost my mind for a second,.
I’ll take it a step further, Jaylen currently has a better handle that Tatum. You wouldn’t know it from reading this boards analysis of how he’s at his best playing off of others but i think it’s true.
It’s time for Brad to up Jaylen’s involvement in the team. More minutes, more time with starters, and higher usage. Guy took a huge leap last year but started out so bad it was like he needed to be rehabbed. Right now he looks like he's right where he left off in the playoffs. Time to push him for 25 games and see what happens.
He has a better short mid-range jumpshot too. He is able to get further into the lane before taking it, and his explosion lets him get a lot of separation on the short fadeaway while staying balanced.
It's not the most likely outcome, but there are a lot of paths in which he ends up better than Tatum. It probably comes down to whichever of them learns to draw fouls and pass/play-make first.
If Jaylen keeps improving, and trading Tatum instead of him lets you keep more picks and Smart in a trade, I'd think very hard about it. Fortunately, none of these decisions can even be made until late June, when we'll have a lot more information.
How Dee Brown Became Jaylen Brown and Other Stories.
(Some fun transaction trees courtesy of The Ringer).
Is it possible that Danny wants Jaylen's minutes down to depress his value, and get him on a 4/80 type extension this summer? This would make some sense if they've already decided that it's going to have to be Tatum for AD.
This assumes too much evil genius. If Jaylen were playing all season like he has the last 5 games we'd be talking about him and picks as a plausible center piece of an AD deal.
It's been really fun to see JB progress and have more success with more playing time. They definitely need to get him more minutes in games, which I assume comes at the expense of Hayward. I realize they want to get Gordon back to his former self, but maybe they should just up his workouts and decrease his minutes.
The last 5 games are when the narrative caught up. He's been good for 2 months now. I do agree that it's probably too evil genius, and also very out of character.
I mentioned it before, but Jaylen Brown has a lot of arguments with different guys on the team. We all point to Rozier and Morris as the problems but Brown has been yelled at by half the team.
He and Smart had issues last night.
He was taking it hard to the rim last night, and he forced it once. Marcus played like dogshit last night and should have kept that comment to himself. The play before (IIRC), Marcus drove into the trees without a plan and threw the ball away trying to hamfist it to JB. I love Marcus, and Jaylen fucked that charge up, but sweet Jesus, time and place, man.
He's the whipping boy of the team. I don't know why but for whatever reason, players come down on him way harder than others for literally the exact same mistakes.
Jaylen lolly gags back on D and Morris lays into him. The same thing happens nightly with Kyrie and Mook and no one bats an eyelash.
Last night, the play that caused the Marcuses to go postal on him was a terrible decision by Jaylen...however, Tatum did pretty much the exact same thing TWICE (the first time they got the rebound off of his miss and Horford ended up missing a wide open 3 while the second time was the offensive charge that led Brad to drop the F bomb on TV) and I didn't see/hear/read about anyone yelling at him.
This is complete conjecture by me but putting together some of the bread crumbs from various podcasts and the Jackie Mac article on JB, I am pretty sure that his personality of never showing emotion rubs people the wrong way. It makes him seem like he is less passionate than his teammates and can make it appear like he's not going all out. Because guys have that opinion of him already in the back of their head, it causes them to lash out at him more for mistakes/lack of effort.
Dime store psychology at its finest but that's pretty much the only thing I can come up with as an explanation.
So is he JD Brown or Jaylen Drew?
Have to go with JD Brown....much cooler name.
In all seriousness; did the team actually not like JD Drew? I don't remember that being hinted at or rumored about. I know fans and the media definitely didn't but I'm not sure his teammates felt the same way
Not that I'm aware of. JD Drew was just another guy who never showed any emotion so "he didn't care."
Jaylen was picked to be the team's union rep---tough for that to happen if guys didn't like him.
Unless nobody else wanted that thankless position
Jaylen is actually one of 8 VP’s in the NBPA below Chris Paul....Daniel Theis is our rep this season replacing Jaylen from last season. Prior to that it was Jerebko.
I’m not sure what to take away from this considering JR Smith is the Cavs rep, Jordan Bell the Warriors and Harry Giles the Kings. Then you have RWB and KAT so some stars value this role differently than others.
On basketball matters, Jaylen is playing like one of the top players on the team right now. It's like he just flipped a switch on defense with his steals, and the big offensive foul draw on Harden tonight that knocked him out of the game. He's also playing pretty great in transition offense.
Brad really needs to find a way to get him 30-35 minutes a game the way he's playing. Which means re-inserting him into the starting lineup.
Seems like they *might* be close to making a move with him replacing Morris in the starting lineup. That's a good start.
Watching the SAC game now: Brown is such a difference maker in transition. We focus a lot on his 3PT%, but he brings so much else to the table when he's engaged and playing decisively. This isn't news to anyone: the whole league saw it in the playoffs last year.
If he played in Sacramento (for example), they'd be a playoff team, and we'd be talking about him as one of the best young wings in the league.
I really hope this is all part of a master plan to lowball him on his extension this summer, because otherwise the team's handling of him this year has been criminal.
Nobody loves JB more than I do. But I'm still pretty comfortable with how they're bringing him along. He and Tatum are such different personalities and have such different games. Brad and Danny likely know what makes him tick. Confidence and understanding is a huge thing for him, so being in the right position to succeed and leverage and gain both is petty damn important. If anything I'm more concerned about how Tatum has stagnated offensively, aside from a better understanding of how to attack and get to the line. JB is confident in his shot, attacking frequently, and making much better basketball plays at both ends. I think that the slow and steady development is working.
I really would like to see him play more minutes. I just hate the fact that 8 minutes has gone by by the time he gets into the game. I feel like he is one of the 5 best players on the team, and would like to see him be in the top 5 in terms of playing time.
I would totally agree with all this...if we hadn’t seen him be totally fine consistently playing 35 mins/game in last year’s playoffs. Once his early season struggles were over (and they have been for months now), I’d have preferred to see him at least play as much as Tatum and Morris.
I don't know about it being "criminal." I'm also a huge JB fan and I'm confident he'd be putting up big numbers if he were playing on a losing team but being on the second unit helps him a lot because he can just concentrate on scoring and doesn't really have to worry about other aspects of the game. To my eyes, he's a great one-on-one scorer and defender but has a ways to go in being a complete basketball player.
Also, advanced stats don't love him being -1.8 in BRef's BPM and -0.1 in VORP. And removing the actual numbers from consideration, he's 9th on the team in WS, 12th in BPM, and 14th in VORP.
That's fair. I'd like to see him getting more minutes than MM.
I am fairly confident that were the roster not so stacked, Brown would likely be starting and, at the very least, getting more minutes.
As a side note, I think our data set is significant enough to confirm that Stevens (and I have to believe its with the blessing of Ainge & Zarren) has been very deliberate in trying to get everyone run, even when it may hurt the team with regard to individual results. Simply put, the C's are playing the long game.
Back to Brown, he is sixth most in MPG on the team so its not like they are burying him. Furthermore, after playing over 27 MPG in November and then falling to just under 24 MPG in December, his minutes have been steadily rising from ~25 MPG in January and February to ~ 27 minutes in March. Some of that is due to guys being out/injured but it seems clear that the team is noticing the uptick in his production of late. Again, it will be a shock if his numbers shrink when the real season begins.
Duncan and LeRoux had a little segment on Brown today. I disagree with them a lot, but I think they're generally a good barometer of where national perception of players is at. They were talking about a possible extension for him this summer, and seemed to think somewhere in the 18-20M number was a reasonable place for it to happen.
If that actually ends up happening, I take back everything bad I've said about Brad and Danny re Brown. Limiting Brown's minutes and then getting him for that number, while turning Tatum into AD. would be a massive win. That said, I still have a hard time seeing Jaylen taking that money: it has to piss him off somewhat that if he played for Phoenix or Atlanta he'd very likely be getting maxed, and I think someone will offer him 22-27M in RFA.
Would he? Aaron Gordon didn't. LaVine didn't (injury). Maxing Jaylen Brown would be stupid. Some team might do it but I wouldn't be shocked if he got 4/80.
I like JB and want him to stay, but I have to squint real hard to see him as a max player. Is JB a top 3 player on a Championship level team or is he an All-Star level player? If so, Danny should just sign Kyrie and keep this group/draft picks. Wade'sCD made the point that JB's adv metrics weren't impressive this season, maybe we need to look at his last 3 months as opposed to his first 2 months?
Does it make sense cap wise to start guaranteeing him $18-20MM (for 4yrs) next season instead of the $6.5 (for 1yr) they have him for? I think Danny likes to let contracts run their course and then have the option to match (which worked out well with Marcus Smart)
Obviously, there isn't any Brad/Danny nefarious plan to keep Jaylen's salary down with less mpg. JB was just horrible the first 2 months of the season combined with MaMo's outstanding shooting (50/40/90)which led to a transition of minutes. The minutes have been transitioning back to Jaylen, albeit slower than many would like.
As you would expect, Jaylen's advanced stats have been much better of late, but they were really bad to start, so maybe they're still not that great.
RPM -1.93 -.71
BPM -2.5 . -2.2
On-OFF -9.4 -2.2
Net -6.0 . -4.6
Raw +- +19 +116
It's ridiculous that Brown was played 20 only minutes against the Nuggets after averaging 30 mpg and 22 points the last three, especially with Hayward out. Even when struggling to make a shot early, Jaylen needs to get minutes and get shots up.
Yeah, that game needed more Jaylen. Paul Millsap puts up a dud offensively versus JB, right?
Was that the only option for Stevens? Did he have to play Jaylen on Millsap? And even if he did, was Millsap going to be able to defend Jaylen on the perimeter?
But maybe he could have played better against your straw man.
Why do people get so defensive when people suggest that maybe just maybe minutes could get moved around and perhaps Brad isn’t handling his lineups all that great this year?
Good article on BSJ highlighting the 4th Q defensive breakdowns. JB and Tatum feature prominently.
Pretty much everyone played meh to terrible last night. Bad shot selection and lazy and/or sloppy defense.
Jaylen sat because of two missed assignments in successive possessions, which is to be expected (the sitting). Rozier, Kyrie, and Morris (i.e., the usual suspects) were worse, with their slack man and fake challenges. But that's a little less obvious. They at least buckled down in the fourth, but then Denver's ball luck returned.
Everyone has their biases. At the end of the day, the team didn't shoot well enough to overcome shit defense. It's not a new problem for this unit.
It's so frustrating in the case of Rozier and Jaylen, who have both shown the ability to focus on defense for long stretches of games. This is one area where the chemistry problems and role uncertainty have probably hurt a lot
The game thread is insane reactionary. Jaylen's lackadaisical effort and boneheaded plays are ignored yet when he's not gifted minutes the wolves cry fowl who question why Morris is playing despite him coming off two of his better games of the year. Aside from Jaylen's poor play his lack of minutes had to do with Denver going big in each half with Jokic and Plumlee while having Millsap at the 3 in some instances. Maybe Brad could have gone small to counter and force mismatches the other way because we were struggling closing out on their perimeter guys when we had our plodding unit in the game when Denver extended their lead up to 10. Even so, it's hard to call for more Jaylen on a night when he was elsewhere...….that's the advantage Brad will have in the postseason as his 2nd half rotation will be shortened to those who came to play in the first half assuming we are fully healthy.
I'm perhaps Jaylen's biggest fan here, and I agree with all of this.
For all of Morris' issues, he doesn't completely check out of games mentally when a few things don't go his way. Jaylen definitely has that tendency.
I'm not sure that's totally fair to say. Just the other night Mook almost blew the game by jacking up two terrible shots early in the shot clock with a minute left in the game when we really needed the time run off.
Simple rotational move...play Horford at the 4 more vs. Denver everyone
Jaylen's brain farts on defense are worse because they result in layups and completely open 3s. They're also pretty damn obvious.
Morris and Rozier get a free pass here for half-assing defense for quarters at a time. I guess that it depends on what bothers you more.
Kyrie gets a pass too, but he isn't great even when he tries on defense. And his offense is generally spectacular.
Anyone who watched Brown not trying last night and Rozier/Morris/Kyrie manning up, we watched different games. The former's missed coverages were infuriating nonetheless, and Brad rightly sat him.
I’m not saying that Mook doesn’t make mistakes: he makes tons, in addition to half-assing defense a decent amount.
What he doesn’t do is go into a massive funk when a few shots don’t go in, or he makes a mistake on D. He generally forgets it and moves on to the next play.
I don’t think he should play as much as he does, but I understand the thought process.
I watched the game with a diehard Celtics fan and we both agreed that this was the most engaged Kyrie had been defensively, especially in the 2nd half, since his 2017 playoff run with Cleveland. Jaylen was benched for either effort, focus, and/or matchups.....all 3 were evident. I'm not sure which you don't agree on in this specific game.
Pretty clear that Jaylen was benched for focus, and Kyrie was fine.
I have a bigger problem with effort problems than focus problems. Both should be addressed.
I believe my gamethread comment was that it was Jaylen’s worst game of the year. He was bad. Tatum might have been worse, though.
Both appeared to get rattled. Jaylen had a bad call on a should-have-been steal and never recovered. Tatum missed a couple wide open threes and then was hesitant the rest of the way.
That’ll happen to young players.
Tatum's shot from three seems like it's become a real problem for him lately. It hasn't been great all year but last night it really seemed like they were practically daring him to shoot it, and he kept missing and missing and missing.