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Jaylen Brown - underrated?

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by Koufax, Jan 17, 2017.

  1. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I was going to say I'd like to see him improve his rebounding a bit but they may be a function of the team. Horford leads the team at 7.3 a game and it's mostly a well balanced effort. Monroe gets quite a bit in the time he plays.

    Jaylen flirting with .400 from 3 too, which is remarkable. A lot of us were hoping he'd develop a 3 with time a la Jimmy Butler, but he's had the shot all along. It is kinda crazy how comparable their rate stats are for the first 2 seasons, with the edge going to Jaylen because he's still younger than Jimmy Butler was in his rookie year, and a better 3 point shooter. If he continues to follow the Jimmy Butler rate stats path, he'll have his breakout season in 2 years.
     
  2. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Totally agree. Not to hijack the thread, but I don't think all championships are created equal: if a Jaylen/Jayson core could win a championship, that would feel more "real" to me than 2008, as fun as that year was.
     
  3. luckiestman

    luckiestman Son of the Harpy SoSH Member

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    Wasn’t it reported that Danny said something like: why would I trade for Jimmy Butler when I can draft Jimmy Butler?
     
  4. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, it was after the draft last year when someone asked Ainge about the Butler rumors (and Ainge breaking them off when the Bulls wouldn’t back off their demand for the ‘17 and ‘18 Nets picks), and he said something like that.
     
  5. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    And at the age Jaylen is now, Jimmy Butler was putting up 15 ppg at Marquette
     
  6. JCizzle

    JCizzle Member SoSH Member

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    Some good stuff from Jaylen coming into the playoffs. I'm beyond impressed by this guy on and off the court. I highly doubt that I could've been this humble at 21 as an elite athlete with $7M sitting in my bank account.





     
  7. Koufax

    Koufax Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I kicked off this thread 15 months ago with a way-too-early ranking of the 2016 draft class that showed Jaylen as 5th best (counting Ben Simmons, who had not played yet,as ahead of him). Here's a ranking someone posted on Reddit about a month ago. It's nice to see an analysis by someone without green-tinted eyeglasses. The author asserts that there is a big dropoff after #3.

    () is where NBADRAFT.net had the player ranked prior to the 2016 NBA draft.

    1 Ben Simmons (1)

    A rookie this season, but Simmons is still the clear cut number 1 player from this class. A top 25 overall player.

    2 Jaylen Brown (3)

    In terms of who has better long term potential, Ingram. Right now, I'll give Brown the slight edge though. He has taken giant steps in his 2nd season, is efficient, consistent, and a key player for a playoff team.

    3 Brandon Ingram (2)

    These are the top 3 by far though. I know some will argue Ingram should be higher, and he has been steadily rising my overall ranking the more I watch him and I think he can be a top 50 player overall by the end of this season if things go well.

    4 Domantas Sabonis (8)

    Has taken big steps this year, and in a re-draft I think the Suns probably should have taken him over Chriss/Bender.

    5 Malcolm Brogdon (34)

    The rookie of the year for this class, Brogdon will be a key role player for 8-10 years as long as he stays healthy.

    6 Fred VanVleet (NR)

    I had to double check, but nbadraft.net did not even have him ranked in the top 100! I mean yea I probably wouldn't of had him top 40 but he was a good player in college I for sure would of had him top 50 or 60 at least. But, he's taken giant steps this year and is cementing his spot as a respected NBA player.

    7 Jamal Murray (10)

    It was very close between him/Van Vleet. Murray has taken steps as a scorer this year, still has a lot to improve on, but he's progressed and that's all you can ask of a 2nd year player.

    8 Pascal Siakam (36)

    Of the top 8, 3 of the players weren't even in the top 34 before the draft! Siakam has progressed a lot this year, and it's clear the Raptors do a great job of developing players as they have 2 of the top 8.

    9 DeJounte Murray (11)

    nbadraft.net did get this one pretty spot on! Murray had a nice game last night, and I believe he has legit top 20-25 overall potential in a few years if everything clicks. By the time I re-rank this next year he could be top 5.

    10 Jakob Poeltl (17)

    The Raptors get 3 players in the top 10! Especially for how bad this draft is considered right now, Massai deserves a hip hip hooray! But for real, Poeltl is becoming a bad man. I watched him take Andre Drummond to school this past week, and not just when he dunked on him, the whole game he was working him. Another guy who when I do this next year he can rise up.

    11 Buddy Hield (5)

    In a re-draft, probably goes to a late lotto pick, but still I wouldn't consider him a bust by any means. He's also a guy I can see progressing even further years 3/4, his shot is solid and he has nice bball IQ.

    12 Yogi Ferrell (80)

    Man this class is weird, but Yogi was undrafted, made a name for himself with the Mavs, and is still coming off the bench and getting buckets. He can be a talented 2nd string PG for any team.

    13 Caris LeVert (22)

    Could be a little more consistent, but overall if he progresses nice in year 3 by this time next year could be in the top 10 on here.

    14 Skal Labissiere (14)

    The Kings hit on this pick, consistency is an issue like LaVert, will put up 20/10 one game and disappear the next. Still, I like his potential and see him higher than this next year.

    15 Kris Dunn (4)

    He had a hot streak in January. Has shed the premature bust label, I'm maybe not as high on him as some are on here, but he has shown me he can for sure be a solid 8-10 year PG. If he gets a consistent shot, he could pull the Chauncey Billups late progression swag.

    16 Taurean Prince (27)

    17 Bryn Forbes (NR)

    18 Denzel Valentine (20)

    19 Thon Maker (26)

    20 Isaiah Taylor (70)

    21 Tyrone Wallace (59)

    22 David Nwaba (NR)

    23 Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (32)

    24 Deyonta Davis (13)

    25 Marquese Chriss (7)​
     
  8. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Jamal Murray is way too low on that list.
     
  9. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I don't think that Ingram has better long-term potential than Jaylen either.
     
  10. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    The next step Ingram has to take, which Jaylen has already taken, is shooting well from range at volume. Instead of bombing away, which you might expect on a lotto team, his 3pt attempts were actually down a fair bit (about 1 attempt per36).

    Not sure if he got better at shooting or if he really only took open looks in a better offense with more pace and ball movement.

    He took big steps though. Top 3 looks good.
     
  11. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    List is obviously biased to good teams. I mean Van Fleet is a nice player but in a perfect situation. If Van Fleet had ended up in SAC, he'd be in Europe right now.

    Fore example, compare PHO vs TOR. PHO gets Bender, Chriss, and Ulis; TOR gets Siakam, Poetl, and Van Fleet. TOR gets three nice players who are playing important roles for them in limited minutes but no one would draft TOR's players over PHO, even in a re-draft.
     
  12. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    So just to be clear Jaylen is a good shooter from 3 on volume to you guys now? Done deal?
    It's a question, because I have only watched single digits of celtics games this season so there may be things you guys see (bad form at the line which is fixable etc)
    The list of players who have had a sub 65% FT percentage and a 3 point % 36%+ (filtered for 3+ 3PA a game and 2+ FTA)

    There's 10, including Jaylen this year.
    http://bkref.com/tiny/9ft4O

    Austin Rivers
    Dion Waiters
    Antoine Walker
    Omri Casspi
    Terry Mills
    Smush Parker
    Mickael Pietrus
    Rodney Rodgers
    Andre Iguodala

    It's not exactly a murderers row of shooters.

    I don't think Brown needs to be a lights out shooter to contribute to a good team, but he does to be a star,
     
  13. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I think he'll be a good shooter. His FT struggles look to me more like a mild case of the yips than an inability to shoo from distance. We'll see, I guess, but I think he'll be able to manage 36%..
     
  14. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    The sub 65% figure is a bit misleading though - isn’t he over 80% since the break
     
  15. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    My guess is that the guy who posted it is a Raptors fan. If you pull out the THREE Raps in the top 10 it's not a bad list (Murray/Murray/Hield should probably slide up above Sabonis and Brogdon, but otherwise fine)
     
  16. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    It's his season number, I mean if you want to pick a 16 game sample from it, but yeah he was sub 60% pre all star and nearly 80% after.
     
  17. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    Well he’s at 38% from 3 on 450 career attempts. 46% from the floor on 1,200 attempts. FT shooting sample is a bit smaller than 3 but not much. It seems reasonable to project improvement seeing as he’s like 21 and has ++ make-up. I think he’s going to be a good shooter.
     
  18. Manzivino

    Manzivino Member SoSH Member

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    He was at 76% over his last 30 games and there have been multiple articles written about him changing his mental approach at the line around the midpoint of the season. I don't expect him to be IT at the stripe, but I believe his season numbers next year will be in the 75% range which is acceptable.
     
  19. Manzivino

    Manzivino Member SoSH Member

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    Edit: Double post
     
  20. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Well this is my point, the FT% has been historically a better gauge.
    To assume the 3pt is real and ft is going to correct is abnormal

    But I will drop it you guys all seem clear
     
  21. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    Isnt that because historically free throw samples were larger? That is not the case here. I can’t think of any other reason that a smaller sample set shot from a shorter distance (free throw) would be a better predictor of live action three point shooting than a larger sample of live action three point shooting. That can’t be.

    I’m not assuming the FT is wrong and the 3pt is right. I’m assuming they’re both right with room for improvement.
     
    #521 amarshal2, Apr 16, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2018
  22. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    Distinct difference between early season FT shooting form and latter part of the season. Smooth, in rhythm, like his jumper already is, and better results followed. YMMV but taking a lot more threes—with a higher degree of difficulty than last year as a non-focal point—with better efficiency is sending some strong signals. We’re getting past the point of trying to figure out if FT% can predict his range when nothing about his deep shooting screams fluke.
     
    #522 Jed Zeppelin, Apr 16, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2018
  23. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Hence the question as I wondered if such a switch had happened.
    Thanks
     
  24. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    It was weird. Before, I think he was kind of going through the motions at the line. Would sort of flick it at the rim (almost Dwightesque) and you could tell he wasn’t comfortable because he was front-rimming most of his misses badly. Pretty weird to watch even as he was draining more threes with confidence.
     
  25. luckiestman

    luckiestman Son of the Harpy SoSH Member

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    It was really bad and it caused me concern but he’s seems to have figured something out.
     
  26. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    This is true that is one reason.
    But the other is that free throws are cleaner, it's always the same shot, same place.
    There's a difference between corner threes and above the break threes, if they are wide open. If they are off the dribble etc. There's a lot more noise in anything. A free throw is stable.
     
  27. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Again though, Fultz was a bad FT shooter in college, and even worse in the NBA .Yet he is going to fix his shot and become a good 3 pt shooter?
     
  28. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    Brown has shot free throws at a 73% clip since January 1st, which roughly coincides with his technique adjustment. I'd say it's reasonable to expect that his FT percentage to remain above 70% going forward than to expect his 3pt percentage to somehow drop below 35% next season.
     
  29. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    As a general comment, I suspect that as three point shot continues growing in importance, the linkage between FT% and 3PT% will decrease (although not disappear).

    I have no evidence of this, but the idea is that players are spending more time practicing threes as a discrete skill, as opposed to working on their general shooting mechanics (which end up aiding both 3PT and FT). Obviously shooting mechanics are important for shooting threes regardless, but there are other secondary skills involved as well which may be getting more emphasis, so the correlation between FT% and 3PT% may break down.

    It's like if winning jump balls suddenly became one of the most important skills for an NBA player. At first, the guys winning jump balls would be the tallest/best vertical leap guys, but over time, players would develop, and teams would select for, other discrete jump ball specific skillsets (timing the ref, etc...). Obviously being tall would still help of course.
     
    #529 bowiac, Apr 16, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2018
  30. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    Fultz shot 65% from the line at UW. That’s not exactly a red flag — yes, sharpshooters like Ray Allen, Steph Curry and Dale Ellis shot significantly better than that at a comparable age (though only Steph was as good as Tatum), but guys like Worthy and Drexler shot below 65% from the stripe as freshmen and still developed into plenty good enough shooters.

    Thanks to Tatum, the next college kid who shoots over 80% from the line and has a 40-inch vertical will probably go #1 overall, but I can see why scouts coveted Fultz’s polished overall offensive game and weren’t too worried about the FT%.
     
  31. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    Why do you have to constantly move the conversation to a different topic.

    If you want to have a pissing contest about fultz, good for you.

    I asked a fair question and got some new information I didn't have, which could indeed make a more positive outlook. It was nothing to do with Fultz.
    It's got nothing to do with Fultz.

    God
     
  32. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Reminds me of Jay Williams a bit. JWill shot ~65% from FT at Duke but was close to 40% from the line. He struggled his rookie year but that was in the triangle. Would have been interesting to see if he ever improved as a shooter. Alas.
     
  33. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I just made a similar post in the other thread.
     
  34. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    I confused the two threads. Sorry. Fultz is talked about in Jaylen's thread, Jaylen in Fultz thread.

    You do need to grow slightly thicker skin though :)
     
  35. southshoresoxfan

    southshoresoxfan Member SoSH Member

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    London,
    I have to wonder if you’d be “curious” about the validity of Jaylens stroke had the 76ers been fortunate enough to draft him.

    I’m going to save everyone the time here...the answer is no.
     
  36. Royal Reader

    Royal Reader Member SoSH Member

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    Even if that's true, a few dissenting voices from other fanbases are a useful thing to have to avoid "I wouldn't trade Lars Anderson for a superstar" level disconnection from reality.

    It's reasonable enough to raise the question of why we should prefer the smaller sample of the last half-season to the full season or whole-career numbers, or to question the predictive value of 3 point shooting numbers which look like an outlier in a guy's offensive profile.
     
  37. finnVT

    finnVT Member SoSH Member

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    Is FT shooting a better predictor of future 3p% even within the NBA? I had thought that was a college thing (i.e., college FT% is better than college 3p% at predicting NBA 3p%), likely because (1) college 3p samples are small, and (2) differences in distance and defense make college 3p% unreliable as a predictor. I would be surprised if once there's an adequate sample, NBA 3p% isn't a better predictor of future NBA 3p% than NBA FT%, but I'd be happy to be convinced I'm wrong.
     
  38. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    Wouldn't the most recent sample size carry more weigh?
     
  39. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    These sound to me like all reasons AGAINST free throws being a better predictor of future three point shooting than actual three point shooting. Three point shooting is not clean. It’s not the same shot from the same place. It’s a different skill.

    Exactly
     
  40. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I'd be interested in the sample of NBA players who have shot at least 35% from three (Jaylen is at 38%) over their first 2 years in the league on a reasonable sample size (say, 300 attempts, Jaylen is at 441). How did this group do in the years that followed? How did their FT% compare to their 3FG%?
     
  41. Royal Reader

    Royal Reader Member SoSH Member

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    Not necessarily, and especially not if the more recent sample is more recent only by dint of arbitrarily excluding earlier results. Players revert to their career norms after hot half-seasons all the time. It's how several people in here correctly predicted Robert Covington would regress after a hot start this year, or why people aren't predicting that Aaron Judge will hit .228 this season.

    You need a good reason to prioritise the more recent but smaller sample. Now, "Young player, completely reworked his form, improvement dates to around the time the form change happened," is a good reason to think the improvement might stick, but you'd forgive someone who doesn't watch him night in night out to for being a little sceptical. "Had a minor injury which completely healed" would be a good reason to go in the opposite direction and discount the more recent sample.
     
    #541 Royal Reader, Apr 17, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2018
  42. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Wasn’t there a lot of talk during the off-season on Jaylen working on his 3P shooting?
    My guess would be that he might spend a lot of time this summer on FT, if simply to cement in his new-found success relative to his January change in approach. 10,000 FTs this summer might allow him to continue as a pro in the 75-80% range.
     
  43. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    I think I did this right: https://www.basketball-reference.co...tat=fg3a&c1comp=gt&c1val=300&order_by=fg3_pct

    Jaylen is 48th on the list. If you switch it to 400 attempts, he's 32nd (ahead of Ray Allen). Now, as to how they progressed afterward, you can eyeball that list.
     
  44. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Thanks for that, pretty interesting. Just eyeballing it, Jaylen is actually an inflection point in the list where almost every active player above him is a good shooter, and a lot of the guys below him ended up more inconsistent.
     
  45. finnVT

    finnVT Member SoSH Member

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    Well, and to get back to London's point, if you filter that list for 3p% between 36-39% and sort by FT%, Jaylen's last on the list. But, the guys right next to him are Omri Casspi and Chandler Parsons. Jaylen's game is obviously hugely different from both of them, but I'd be perfectly happy if he turns out to be a similar career 3p shooter as those two (Casspi 36.9%, Parsons 37.7%). Given what we've seen of the rest of his game, I think that will play just fine. And that's the fairly conservative estimate, where we don't believe he's made any real strides in FT%, or that his year 2 3p% should be more predictive than year 1.
     
  46. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    I certainly believe that the free throw sample is relevant. Perhaps someone could figure out the standard deviation of Browns ft shooting and his 3pt shooting, do some sort of weighted average with more weight on 3pt shooting and then figure out that the new std dev is or something like that. That would seem fair to me. Saying that FT is a better predictor than a more relevant, larger sample does not.
     
  47. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    Andrew Johnson from Nylon Calculus did the reasearch on which most of this discussion is based. The purpose, as noted, was to project NBA 3-point shooting based on what is often a small sample of college 3s taken. He found that a combination of college 3 percentage, college ft percentage and volume of threes taken yielded the most accurate (yet still fairly weak) projections.

    His formula is: NBA 3 Point % = .175 + .128 * Free Throw Percentage + .00449 * 3PTA per 40 + .163 * Three Point Percentage

    Based on that formula, Jaylen projected as a .326 NBA three-point shooter coming out of college.

    If you use the same formula, and use his Cal numbers and Celtics numbers, he would now project as a .340 NBA 3pt-shooter. And that of course does not account for the fact that the bigger and better part of those numbers were actually accumulated in the NBA. Presumably, that number would be significantly higher.
     
  48. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    I limited it further to 37% or higher, then sorted by FT%. Looks to me like nearly everybody on the list, at least near the bottom of FT% with Jaylen, turned out to be good career 3-pt shooters, most remaining over 37% for their careers.

    Of the other four players who shot at least 37% from 3 and below 70% from FT, only Casspri has a career 3pt percentage under 37% (it's .369), and he's also the only one who didn't bring his career FT percentage above 70%. So maybe 3-pt shooting is a good predictor of future free throw shooting, too.
     
    #548 The Needler, Apr 17, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2018
  49. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    If I did this correctly (may not have), the first spoiler is a list of guys under 23 who in their first 2 years had over 400 3PA and 3P% > .350. Most of the names are recognizable (they are sorted by 3P%). Of the ones that maybe aren't, Lenard had a 10-year career and had a .384 3P%; Hollis Thompson was in the NBA for four years but not this year; Duhon played 10 years too and a career .363 3P%; and Isaiah Rider played for 8 years and ended up with a career 3P% of .352 (though his final full year in 2000-01, he shot .370 over 92 attempts in 67 games).

    edit: second spoiler is >350 3PA; >.370 3P%. Hollis Thompson is playing for Olympiacos of the Greek Basket League and the EuroLeague and interestingly enough he shot .271 on 48 3PA over 27 games this season.

    Stephen Curry
    Ben Gordon
    D.J. Augustin
    Klay Thompson
    Voshon Lenard
    Kyle Korver
    Hollis Thompson
    Mike Miller
    Bradley Beal
    Kyrie Irving
    Allan Houston
    Kerry Kittles
    Danilo Gallinari
    O.J. Mayo
    Reggie Miller
    Damian Lillard
    Eric Gordon
    Jaylen Brown
    Vladimir Radmanovic
    Ray Allen
    Jodie Meeks
    Terrence Ross
    Taurean Waller-Prince
    Brandon Knight
    Zach LaVine
    Steve Francis
    Paul Pierce
    Damon Stoudamire
    Marcus Thornton
    Omri Casspi
    Ryan Anderson
    Isaiah Thomas
    Daequan Cook
    Quentin Richardson
    Kyle Kuzma
    Deron Williams
    Dennis Scott
    Latrell Sprewell
    Lauri Markkanen
    Jason Terry
    Mike Dunleavy
    Martell Webster
    James Harden
    Rodney Hood
    Kevin Durant
    Jamal Murray
    Andrea Bargnani
    Jordan Farmar
    Chris Duhon
    Dario Saric
    Devin Booker
    Jason Richardson
    Peja Stojakovic
    Tim Hardaway
    Isaiah Rider
    Brandon Jennings
    Rudy Gay
    D'Angelo Russell
    Nick Van Exel

    link: https://www.basketball-reference.co...stat=fg3_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=.350&order_by=ws

    Stephen Curry
    Daniel Gibson
    Hersey Hawkins
    Ben Gordon
    D.J. Augustin
    Klay Thompson
    Voshon Lenard
    Kyle Korver
    Hollis Thompson
    Rudy Fernandez
    Mike Miller
    Bradley Beal
    Kyrie Irving
    Allan Houston
    Kerry Kittles
    Nate Robinson
    Buddy Hield
    Kirk Hinrich
    Danilo Gallinari
    Jimmer Fredette
    O.J. Mayo
    Reggie Miller
    Damian Lillard
    Eric Gordon
    Jaylen Brown
    Vladimir Radmanovic
    Ray Allen
    Jrue Holiday
    Jodie Meeks
    Terrence Ross
    Taurean Waller-Prince
    Brandon Knight
    Zach LaVine
    Steve Francis
    Paul Pierce
    Damon Stoudamire
    Marcus Thornton
    Omri Casspi

    https://www.basketball-reference.co...stat=fg3_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=.370&order_by=ws
     
    #549 wade boggs chicken dinner, Apr 17, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2018
  50. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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