Olynyk is 7th in WS/48 among guys in his draft class with at least 2500 career minutes. He's a sneaky-good defender. Yes, it's starting to look as though he has plateaued, but this is his last cost-controlled year anyway. I'd rate KO as a good pick.
Jaylen Brown - underrated?
- Thread starter Koufax
- Start date
Yeah - I think the only way to think Olynyk is a bust is to grade things on a "did you draft Giannis or Gobert" scale.
There's still potential for Rozier as a ball-of-energy bench guy who can do a bunch of stuff on offense. Still finding his way, when to be more aggressive, less aggressive, and so on. His 32% from three isn't catastrophically bad.
The biggest failing there is not in drafting Rozier over anybody else, but rather winning too many games down the stretch. Not sure how tiebreakers would've shaken out but three losses puts them in position to draft any of Binky Winslow, Turner, or Booker. Though in hindsight, if we had ended up with Winslow we'd be wondering why the hell we passed on the latter two while Smart and Winslow built mansions together on the second unit.
The biggest failing there is not in drafting Rozier over anybody else, but rather winning too many games down the stretch. Not sure how tiebreakers would've shaken out but three losses puts them in position to draft any of Binky Winslow, Turner, or Booker. Though in hindsight, if we had ended up with Winslow we'd be wondering why the hell we passed on the latter two while Smart and Winslow built mansions together on the second unit.
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If Danny knew he was going to trade for IT4, I assume he wouldn't have drafted Rozier. Guy has no real chance of cracking the rotation, and he's not going to develop properly playing 10 minutes a night (if that). No big deal -- hindsight 20/20 and all that.
A DeRozan who could defend would be quite an asset, and Brown already shows signs of better 3point shooting than Derozan has ever shown (28% over his career).
My impression is that Brown's ballhandling is pretty good for someone who plays at such high speed -- and that his major weakness so far has been a tendency to miss open layups because he is still playing out of control. He can get his own shot whenever he wants, but it goes around the rim and out. Once he gets a little bit stronger, those shots will start falling.
Thomas was acquired in February 2015, and Rozier was drafted in June 2015, so Ainge already knew Thomas was on roster. I think Ainge simply fell in love with Rozier's athleticism (which is extraordinary), and hope that Rozier would develop the court vision that he apparently lacks. He had a place in the rotation, as backup point guard, but Smart showed the ability to make plays for others, while Rozier can only create his own shot.
I am confused how he has no real chance at cracking the rotation? He is averaging nearly 20 minutes a night.
You're kind of all over the place here.
Check the transaction date for IT4 versus the draft and check how much Rozier is playing, because the 2 main thrusts of your post are incorrect.
EDIT: BAH! Scroll through the thread.
Can we have a kangaroo court for people lamenting draft picks anything outside of the top few picks in the draft? Ainge has had hits and misses all over the board, like every other GM in the lg. Its exhausting seeing sentences like "im not sure Jaylen will pan out because sheesh Ainge drafted Fab Melo!"
For the record, i love what ive seen from Jaylen. Cs havent had a pure athlete who doesnt look lost out there in a long while. As they have been steadily feeding him more minutes hes looking more and more comfortable. A better handle and just a full summer in the org will propel him from a good rookie to a good rotational player. His cieling is high, and i love that age 20 he is finishing strong through contact more and more.
For the record, i love what ive seen from Jaylen. Cs havent had a pure athlete who doesnt look lost out there in a long while. As they have been steadily feeding him more minutes hes looking more and more comfortable. A better handle and just a full summer in the org will propel him from a good rookie to a good rotational player. His cieling is high, and i love that age 20 he is finishing strong through contact more and more.
I agree that a DeRozan who could defend would be a great asset. That said, there's a reason I chose DeRozan; I'm skeptical of Brown's defensive skills and his defensive upside. I'm also probably less encouraged by the fact that Brown has made 13 threes in his career (31%) than 12 (28%). Anything can happen, and it's early, but I'm skeptical Brown's perimeter potential (which, again, is why I went with DeRozan as the comp).
Of course, I also made fun of the Knicks for picking Porzingis, so...
Olynyk's performance is about as expected. Certainly not a bust. My criticism of the pick has always been that a rebuilding team should not be passing on a high upside potential difference maker for the certainty of mediocrity. If this draft was held today with us in a much different situation as a 50-win team I would feel much different about an Olynyk pick.
I think this is exactly right. As a general matter, Ainge went very conservative here, when he should have been swinging for the fences.
Wow, would've thought it was quite a bit less than that.
And as several others pointed out, IT4 was already here when Danny drafted Rozier.
Ainge's theory is that teams have to accumulate assets in order to get better. Going for the fences but getting a bust leaves a rebuilding team stuck in place while getting assets means that you can package them for better assets. That's how he built the first championship team so I'm not going to argue with him.
I.e., it's better to draft a Terry Rozier than a Bruno Caboclo even if that means you end up with Olynyk rather than Giannis.
YMMV.
That number is skewed by Rozier receiving 5 DNP-CD in our last 12 games which don't negatively the "average." Over our last 15 games, which include the 5 he hasn't played, Rozier has played a total of 151 minutes (10 per game).
When Avery returns those minutes will be further reduced and the DNP-CD's increased as he's essentially played himself out of the rotation after having every opportunity to eat into Smart's minutes at the start of the year.
It's worth noting they won all of those games because they traded for Isaiah and Crowder. In order to draft one of those guys you would at least have to reverse out the Isaiah trade and possibly both.
With Giannis in particular, I suspect Ainge at the time had a real blind spot with respect to foreign talent. A decent amount of the high upside talent that the Celtics let slip by was from overseas, and the Celtics were rarely involved. He did take some high upside guys, like James Young. I thought James Young was a waste of a pick at the time, but insofar as he had value, it was as an upside pick.
Thought this thread deserved a bump after Brown's start vs Orlando - 20pts and 8rebs in 30min.
Also interesting to see him on the floor opposite Jeff Green - as mentioned in the game thread similar size and athleticism but Jaylen already shows more consistent aggression on offense.
If JB's ceiling is an aggressive Jeff Green that would be a very good player.
Also interesting to see him on the floor opposite Jeff Green - as mentioned in the game thread similar size and athleticism but Jaylen already shows more consistent aggression on offense.
If JB's ceiling is an aggressive Jeff Green that would be a very good player.
We're gonna have to agree to disagree about whether being a better version of Jeff Green is a good thing.
Don't know why there has to be a comp at all. If Brown can score more, get to the line more, rebound better, pass better, and play better defense, then it doesn't really matter what player he superficially looks like.
Not saying all of that will necessarily be true but I've seen flashes of all of it.
Not saying all of that will necessarily be true but I've seen flashes of all of it.
They didn't draft JB to be a more aggressive Jeff Green. They drafted him to be Jimmy Butler - or better.
Ainge said as much on draft day (i.e., why give the Bulls what they were asking for when they might be able to draft someone who becomes the same player in 2-3 years)?
He followed up that performance with 9 points, 8 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 block and 2 steals in 28 minutes. 3-9 FG, 1/3 3pt, 2-2 FT. Nice to see him doing other things other than scoring the past few games.
Jaylen is also 28/33 in FTs since Dec 1st. .848. SSS and all, but he's 20 so it is something to be positive about. If you take out his game where he went 3/8 from the line, he is 41/58 .788 on the season.
Jaylen is also 28/33 in FTs since Dec 1st. .848. SSS and all, but he's 20 so it is something to be positive about. If you take out his game where he went 3/8 from the line, he is 41/58 .788 on the season.
Brown is a much better ballhandler than Jeff Green, who could only go right, and only for two dribbles. Brown tries to do too much with the ball, and loses it from time to time, but he can go left, he can bring the ball up the floor at a good clip. Brown also shows signs of being able to shoot the turnaround jumper in either direction.
Now if he could only stop bricking the open layups that his speed and agility earn him...
And because of this, peak Brown will probably get to the line 7-8 times a game while peak Green only did 4.5.
I'm not a Jeff Green fan by any means, but I'm thinking people are underselling his career and the fact he was a 5th overall pick himself. A more aggressive Jeff Green is probably a similar offensive player to 14-15 and 15-16 Jimmy Butler, with worse handles and court vision. At least OKC Jeff Green.
I like Brown's finishing around the basket (especially the up-foul-layup move he's been using a lot lately). And his ability to drive and hit the open man.
His rebounding, which was disappointing early in the season, has really improved. Might be because he's slotted into Bradley's role of late, and rebounding has become a priority at that spot.
Brown is getting more consistent minutes now too. It's probably hard to read anything conclusive into the rate stats of a guy who was playing 7 minutes one night and 22 the next. In the last 7 games, he is averaging 21mpg and 4.9rpg.
Jaylon is getting court time.He plays with confidence and stand out athleticism .it is too soon to make pronouncements but I'd be surprised if he doesn't pan out...big time...20 years old...my my...
Haven't seen a ton of games lately being on the road but saw bits and pieces of last nights. One sequence that stood out with Jaylen was late in the first he accepted a cross court pass near the corner and as two defenders were closing on him made correct snap ball rotation to Jerebko at elbow extended behind the arc. As his man was denying him the return pass Jaylen recognized the weak side had cleared out with no help and instinctually made a backdoor cut that would have resulted in a dunk.
Jerebko read it wrong and threw pass into stands where Jaylen was but the point is that Jaylen was able to slow the game down while possessing the awareness to make all the correct reads. Very encouraging.
Jerebko read it wrong and threw pass into stands where Jaylen was but the point is that Jaylen was able to slow the game down while possessing the awareness to make all the correct reads. Very encouraging.
He's showing improvement. There are still times he tries to do too much and winds up with an ugly, contested layup attempt, but he doesn't look lost out there like say Gerald Green used to (used to? still does? you get it).
There was one play I liked a lot last night and was similar to what you saw. Horford and Jaylen were on the same side of the floor, and as Al was backing his man down in the paint with the ball, Jaylen cut to the hoop to clear that side. As Jaylen got to the hoop and started to the other side of the floor, his man left him and went to double Al. Instead of keeping his path going to the other side of the court, he stops, takes a step or two back towards the hoop and gets a wide-open layup as a result once Horford hit him with the pass.
It was a simple play, but one that doesn't happen if he's not paying attention and just goes through the motions to clear the floor for Horford.
I will say that Brown is a lot better than I was anticipating. I expected his contribution this year to be, well, pretty much nothing. I wasn't wild about them using #3 on him, but I was wrong, he looks like he will be the third/fourth best player out of the pool. A great start to the Shoulda Been Nets era.
Was also skeptical of the pick, but am now on board.
He is such a tough comp. He's got this herky-jerky style, and is gifted when it comes to improvising around the rim. Everyone throws out the Butler comp, but with his hesitation game, he almost reminds me of a right-handed Ginobili. His handle is not so broken that he could be a matchup nightmare at the 2 guard at his size. Also love the 90's retro style going on with the flat top haircut and Dee Brown shorts.
We know his to-the-bucket game is advanced for a 20-year-old. If he can develop an outside shot...
He is such a tough comp. He's got this herky-jerky style, and is gifted when it comes to improvising around the rim. Everyone throws out the Butler comp, but with his hesitation game, he almost reminds me of a right-handed Ginobili. His handle is not so broken that he could be a matchup nightmare at the 2 guard at his size. Also love the 90's retro style going on with the flat top haircut and Dee Brown shorts.
We know his to-the-bucket game is advanced for a 20-year-old. If he can develop an outside shot...
At the game last night for my first extended look at him - for someone with an NBA ready body (I seem to remember that being the memo), it seems like he has a ton of room to fill out. Lanky.
Eric Williams was hery-jerky. Honestly I am fine without a comp - I think he will evolve into an excellent defender and offensive player, but it might take fiver years for him to really role out. I hope the next step is refining his finishing at the rim. There were a couple of times I thought he should have finished but didn't. Finishing, D and 75% FT would be a great rotational peice next year. Then let the shooting come...
Eric Williams was hery-jerky. Honestly I am fine without a comp - I think he will evolve into an excellent defender and offensive player, but it might take fiver years for him to really role out. I hope the next step is refining his finishing at the rim. There were a couple of times I thought he should have finished but didn't. Finishing, D and 75% FT would be a great rotational peice next year. Then let the shooting come...
Bumping this thread for posterity. Jaylen is 10-2 as a starter since AB has been out. He's now shooting over 50% on corner threes, which is great. Hope the Cs keep him so we can watch him grow into the beast he's destined to be.
Here's an article with some advanced stats, a couple of which are in the following paragraph:
"A check of Synergy Sports' defensive data has Brown in the 88th percentile among all defenders, holding opponents to 0.805 points per play. In fact, Synergy's data suggests that, among all players with at least 300 players defended, Brown ranks 15th in the league in points allowed per play. (That's just four spots behind Golden State's Draymond Green at 0.798 points per play.)"
Here's an article with some advanced stats, a couple of which are in the following paragraph:
"A check of Synergy Sports' defensive data has Brown in the 88th percentile among all defenders, holding opponents to 0.805 points per play. In fact, Synergy's data suggests that, among all players with at least 300 players defended, Brown ranks 15th in the league in points allowed per play. (That's just four spots behind Golden State's Draymond Green at 0.798 points per play.)"
I don't follow the NBA close enough to know this, but I know that Simmons hasn't played and Ingram hasn't been any better than Brown in LA. Have any of the players drafted behind Jaylen outperformed him? I was looking at this link and it appears Hernangomez on Denver has more WinShares as doe Siakam on the Raptors, but does anyone think they or anyone else has more upside than Brown?
It's far too early to tell but when drafted, Jaylen had one of the highest upsides anyway. If there was a redraft, he'd probably go 2nd and Jamal Murray might move up a couple slots.
I think the answer has to be no.
Not because "whoa Showtime!" but because Brown had a really nice month with AB out, not always spectacular but solid, and yet he still doesn't appear in more than half of the articles about NBA rookies. Hell the NBA's own rookie leaderboard doesn't have him in the top 10 (but it does have Ingram).
I'm not saying he's a lock to be great or that he should be ROTY (especially as he's likely to lose minutes and the ROTY is about production not potential) but I'm not sure who out there is "overrating" him right now.
Not because "whoa Showtime!" but because Brown had a really nice month with AB out, not always spectacular but solid, and yet he still doesn't appear in more than half of the articles about NBA rookies. Hell the NBA's own rookie leaderboard doesn't have him in the top 10 (but it does have Ingram).
I'm not saying he's a lock to be great or that he should be ROTY (especially as he's likely to lose minutes and the ROTY is about production not potential) but I'm not sure who out there is "overrating" him right now.
Brown's issue in terms of visibility is that he's a hidden gem on a really good team. He's come out the past month or so with Bradley down, but if he was on a crappy team and eating up minutes, he'd be at or near the top of everyone's rookie list. I can't remember the last Celtics rookie I was this excited about. The way he hung in the air on that alley oop last night legit reminded me of MJ. That was freaking impossible.
For those who haven't seen:
For those who haven't seen:
Conversely, if he was on a shitty team, I'm sure me defensive focus would be on him and his numbers would suffer.
Who cares about national attention? I'm psyched he's developing in the right atmosphere.
He looks like he's continuing on the path to a level somewhere in the middle of Butler, Paul George, Kawhi and Hayward. I couldn't be more pleased with his play and improvement over the season. He's a cerebral kid who I'd say takes well to coaching. His defensive improvement is the most noticeable part of the progress he's made. He's ready to play a part in the postseason. I'd love to see him playing next to Josh Jackson for the next 5 years.
He's looking like Kedrick Brown with actual basketball skills and a desire to work hard. Very exciting.
Couldn't have summed it up better myself. Not to sound like Simmons, but his 'body language' looks great. He's starting to look like he knows he belongs on the floor among a competitive team
Honestly im hanging up the phone on anyone that mentions Jaylen in trade talks. Why overpay for a star when you may very well have just drafted a star wing.
Hes high in the league ranks on defensive pts allowed per possession as well as pts per post up. Hes shooting it reasonably well. Hes improving every game and making less rookie mistakes.
He looks like hes starting to realize hes one of the better athletes in the league.
Hes high in the league ranks on defensive pts allowed per possession as well as pts per post up. Hes shooting it reasonably well. Hes improving every game and making less rookie mistakes.
He looks like hes starting to realize hes one of the better athletes in the league.