Jackie Bradley Jr.'s 2013 season and expectations.

Lowrielicious · Jan 23, 2014

smastroyin said:
I guess when you use a phrase like light the IL on fire you just mean that he didn't absolutely dominate the league to some ridiculous degree. But most people use this phrase to mean a player was mediocre.

He ranked 17th in OPS in the IL among players with more than 143 AB. He ranked 5th among players with more than 300.

He hit 275/374/469. Wil Myers hit 286/356/520. I'm not saying JBJ is as good as Wil Myers, but he does compare pretty favorably based only on AAA stats. And I know all about the importance of the year's age difference. All I am saying that considering his AAA season anything but a success is a pretty demanding point of view.

Plus with excellent defense in centrefield he doesn't have to hit as well as Myers.

lexrageorge · Jan 24, 2014

yecul said:
Healthy and good is not a problem. Healthy and mediocre enough to stick for a month or two is the problem. If he's awful or hurt you dump him. If he's awesome then you're psyched. It's the lower end of that middle ground -- the highest percentage spot for him to land, IMO -- is the issue.

He displaces JBJ. He drags the club for a while until they decide to cut bait. That is the most concerning scenario.

We will see how it all hashes out, but the above is a very realistic scenario. The Sox would like to retain and maximize their available resources. Given that JBJ has options I imagine SS will have to show a bit less than awesome to be given a shot.

I think the divide is that some of us see AAA as a reasonable starting point for JBJ this spring. Last year at this time, the consensus was that Bradley should start the season in Portland.

If Bradley was a slam dunk to give the Sox Victorino or Nava level production out of the gate, then I would agree that sending JBJ down would be troubling. But I'm not convinced that is the case. I'm also not convinced Mike Carp is the real deal either, but I realize I'm a minority on that one.

Savin Hillbilly · Jan 24, 2014

lexrageorge said:
I think the divide is that some of us see AAA as a reasonable starting point for JBJ this spring. Last year at this time, the consensus was that Bradley should start the season in Portland.

Can you point me to evidence of this consensus? My memory is that it was a given he would start in Pawtucket until he promoted himself in ST.

He'll turn 24 in April. He spent more than half a season in Pawtucket last year and acquitted himself well, even if not to the point of inciting global conflagrations. Everyone agrees he's ML-ready defensively. I can't think of a reason in the world why we shouldn't pencil him in as the starting CF, other than the fact that he might not be as good as Ellsbury right away. Well, most major league CFs aren't as good as Ellsbury. Such is life.

Kid T · Jan 25, 2014

Savin Hillbilly said:
He'll turn 24 in April. He spent more than half a season in Pawtucket last year and acquitted himself well, even if not to the point of inciting global conflagrations. Everyone agrees he's ML-ready defensively. I can't think of a reason in the world why we shouldn't pencil him in as the starting CF, other than the fact that he might not be as good as Ellsbury right away.

I would feel a lot more confident if he was able to adjust to the hole in his swing (fastballs inside) after his call up. I am sure it was mostly mental and he's made the adjustments with a full off-season.

nvalvo · Jan 25, 2014

Kid T said:
I would feel a lot more confident if he was able to adjust to the hole in his swing (fastballs inside) after his call up. I am sure it was mostly mental and he's made the adjustments with a full off-season.

I did some clicking around on Brooks Baseball to investigate the degree to which this happened, and I think it looks promising, albeit in small samples.

Here's the picture in April 2013.

Here's the picture from May 1st until the end of the season.

In the first call-up, he was being devoured inside, mostly by heat. In subsequent call-ups, he mostly closed that hole, and pitchers started attacking him low and away, which seemed to take him a bit by surprise.

There are other ways to approach this, but I didn't want the samples to get even tinier than they are here.

Kid T · Jan 27, 2014

nvalvo said:
I did some clicking around on Brooks Baseball to investigate the degree to which this happened, and I think it looks promising, albeit in small samples.

Here's the picture in April 2013.

Here's the picture from May 1st until the end of the season.

In the first call-up, he was being devoured inside, mostly by heat. In subsequent call-ups, he mostly closed that hole, and pitchers started attacking him low and away, which seemed to take him a bit by surprise.

There are other ways to approach this, but I didn't want the samples to get even tinier than they are here.

But strikeouts are ony a small part of the story.

Part of the problem for Bradley was that he lost his plate approach. Pitchers discovered that he couldn’t quite catch up to major-league fastballs in on the hands. When Bradley tried to adjust, getting his hands further inside to hit those pitches, he got pull-happy on pitches on the outer half of the plate and rolled grounder after grounder to second base.

http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20140124-those-who-know-jackie-bradley-jr.-expect-he-ll-embrace-new-challenge.ece

Making adjustments is a major part of the development for all baseball players. I think he will adjust, but I will feel a lot better after I've seen do it. Until then, he will continue to be attacked the same way by opposing pitchers until he makes them pay.

The X Man Cometh · Jan 28, 2014

It seems like the disappointment about Bradley Jr. stems from the Bryce Harper-esque hype train he got in spring training more than anything else. For a player to struggle with their first cup of coffee, especially after a meteoric rise like his own, is perfectly normal.

lexrageorge · Jan 28, 2014

Good idea to break this topic out.

To answer a question upthread, I can refer you to the following thread (http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/76491-jackie-bradley-jr-could-he-be-shipping-up-to-boston/page-6?hl=hadlock#entry4598431), where some posters did argue that Bradley should start 2013 in Portland:

If you really want to see the kid, it's a lot easier to watch TV or go to Hadlock.

Why is Portland being considered an option? If anything, this spring did show he's well beyond AA level. If he's not in Boston on April 1 (which I still believe will be true), his home stadium will be McCoy.

Because he only has 61 games played at AA and his worst stretch of offensive performance came at the end of the season.

Remember a few months ago, after he hit very well in A ball and pretty well in AA, and the debate was over whether he should just jump straight to the Paw Sox or not, based on a small sample in Portland?

I want him to start the year in Pawtucket, or maybe even Portland.

So the idea that Bradley should be starting in Portland last year wasn't all that uncommon. Now, the situations are not entirely analogous; Bradley had 100 more at-bats in AAA in 2013 than he did in AA in 2012. But here's what we do know:

- Bradley struggled mightily(0.619 OPS) in 100 at-bats in MLB last year. Yeah, SSS and all that, but at the MLB level that's all we have right now.

- In his last 37 at-bats in his September call-up, he did put up a .243/.341/.378/.720 line, indicating an improving trend. But, again, if we call the 100 at-bats a small sample, what do we call 37?

- I'll admit I discounted the value of his 0.842 OPS when I said "he didn't light AAA on fire". And that was 33 points higher than his OPS in AA the prior season. All good. But....

- He had 3 stints in AAA: 20 games in April/May after his demotion upon Ortiz' return, 25 games in June/July after a quick cup of Joe in MLB, and a 35 game stretch before his final September call up. His OPS during those 3 stretches, respectively: 1.018, 0.861, 0.731.

To me, it's not a slam dunk that he's done all he can at AAA. Yes, he had a decent season, but he's still had only 500 at-bats above A, and for at least the first 40% and final 25% of those at-bats he was just OK.

I'm not upset if he starts the season with the big club; but I'm also not upset if Farrell and Cherington decide he could use a bit more seasoning at AAA, either.

Otis Foster · Jan 28, 2014

Anyway, on top of the fact that JBJ had a very good age 23 season in Pawtucket, JBJ jumped in both the BP top 101 (27 in 2013, 23 in 2014) and MLB.com top 100 (32 in 2013, 28 in 2014). BA won't publish their list until mid-February, but I don't imagine there will be a lot of dissent from this general opinion (he was 31 on their list in 2013). This is to say, on top of the stats saying he had a good year, scouts seem to agree that he did nothing to diminish how we should think of him, no matter his struggles in the majors.

I take your point, but it could also reflect a migration of higher rated talent into MLB for the period being assessed. In other words, he stood still while his competition thinned out. I don't know that that's the case, but it should be considered.

I think we need to see what improvement he's made at the plate. If the ProJo article is to be believed, he may have substituted weak grounders for SOs, which isn't much progress.

jimbobim · Jan 28, 2014

I think JBJ's struggles last year at the MLB level can be directly attributed to the log jam of players in his way to playing consistently everyday.

His AAA numbers are pretty encouraging and he's moved really quickly through the system. If he bats seventh or eighth I can imagine him being almost Brett Gardner Light. Great glove average at bat that at least gets some walks.

By comparison I think Red Sox fans can expect a better year with the bat from JBJ compared to what Cincinnati will get out of Billy Hamilton.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Jan 28, 2014

He's the starting CF and he'll get at least 130 starts in CF next season for Boston. This idea that he'll start anywhere else is ridiculous. I don't know how the writing couldn't be more on the wall than it is. The Sizemore contract didn't alter it one iota.
My total hunch is he'll start hot- .800+ OPS with lots of doubles and walks. Lots of posters will be posting "I told you so's" all over here. He'll slow down after some pitching adjustments and struggle for two months and we'll have lots of posters posting "I told you he should have started in AAA!!!!". He'll then make plate adjustments and begin to level out his performance that we'll eventually see over the next several years to a .770ish OPS with GG defense in CF. Ellsbury will have about the same type of season in NY for 20* the cost.

Al Zarilla · Jan 28, 2014

On the "Red Sox on campus" from Northeastern U. show I watched on NESN last night, a question from the audience was what are the roles for Xander Boegarts and JBJ this year with the Red Sox. Farrell with no hesitation said Xander is starting at shortstop and Bradley is starting in center field. For the Red Sox.

Sam Ray Not · Jan 28, 2014

jimbobim said:
If he bats seventh or eighth I can imagine him being almost Brett Gardner Light.

Yeesh, that's quite a hedge. You sure you don't want to add a "poor man's" in there somewhere?

Brett Gardner's career OPS is .733. Last year he was .759. He broke into the league a year later than JBJ, had one really good year with respect to OBP at age 26 (.383 in 2010) and has since regressed to what looks like a .340-.350 OBP baseline. He's now 30.

I'm the farthest thing from an expert in such matters, but isn't regular-old Brett Gardner (i.e. not imagined, almost, or light) sort of a realistic scenario for JBJ?

Savin Hillbilly · Jan 28, 2014

Considering that the two most obvious differences in their minor league numbers are that Gardner has a lot more speed and JBJ has a lot more power, Brett Gardner Heavy would be more like it.

JakeRae · Jan 28, 2014

Trotsky said:
He's the starting CF and he'll get at least 130 starts in CF next season for Boston. This idea that he'll start anywhere else is ridiculous. I don't know how the writing couldn't be more on the wall than it is. The Sizemore contract didn't alter it one iota.
My total hunch is he'll start hot- .800+ OPS with lots of doubles and walks. Lots of posters will be posting "I told you so's" all over here. He'll slow down after some pitching adjustments and struggle for two months and we'll have lots of posters posting "I told you he should have started in AAA!!!!". He'll then make plate adjustments and begin to level out his performance that we'll eventually see over the next several years to a .770ish OPS with GG defense in CF. Ellsbury will have about the same type of season in NY for 20* the cost.

Ellsbury costs closer to 50 times as much, not 20.

Devizier · Jan 28, 2014

Fun projection exercise at Fangraphs, WRC+ projections for Jackie Bradley by system:

ZIPS 95
Steamer 101
Oliver 103
Fans 107

Oddly, the fans have Bradley with a BABIP-inflated on base percentage and weak power. Kind of the opposite of what I would have expected.

nvalvo · Jan 28, 2014

The power Bradley has shown in the minors has gotten short shrift in many of the conversations about his potential, likely because he's not a big guy.

alwyn96 · Jan 29, 2014

nvalvo said:
The power Bradley has shown in the minors has gotten short shrift in many of the conversations about his potential, likely because he's not a big guy.

Well, he's also never hit more than 13 HR in a season. Not bad for a good defensive CF, but people don't generally talk much about your power unless you're hittin a few more dingers than that. He's not without power, and he hits some doubles, but like you say, he's not a big guy and most scouts don't project big power numbers for him.

koufax37 · Jan 30, 2014

I'll take the over on Bradley, and I'm not worried about the struggles in his 100 AB MLB experience. I think his larger sample in triple-A give a clear indication that you will expect better at the MLB level.

A quick comparison to Sizemore's career arc (although Sizemore was two years younger at each level as a high school draftee):

Sizemore had a final AAA season of a .798 OPS, a sub-100 OPS+ MLB debut over 100+ ABs
Bradley had a final AAA season of a .842 OPS, and a worse sub-100 OPS+ MLB debut over 100+ ABs.

Sizemore then had back to back MVP vote getting 6.6 WAR seasons following his cup of coffee struggles.

I'm not saying that Bradley follows that model and is a start this season, but I don't think his 100 ABs in MLB last year are statistically predictive any more than his spring training oppo homer against Cliff Lee is indicative of his expected power performance vs LHP.

What I am saying is that it is quite normal for a young hitter to struggle in a 100 AB debut, and then excel the following year having made some adjustments and learned.

A much younger, but Mike Trout did the same thing. A more similar Coco Crisp struggled on his 100 AB debut, then had a rough first full season before excelling in his second and third year. Kemp struggled in his 100+ AB debut and did fine in year two.

I think barring having time taken by a shockingly resurgent and healthy Sizemore, Bradley will have what is considered by all measures a good 2014 season as a 400+ AB starter, and we will not be breaking down his struggles and defects and wondering if we can land someone at the trading deadline.

The Boomer · Jan 30, 2014

koufax37 said:
I'll take the over on Bradley, and I'm not worried about the struggles in his 100 AB MLB experience. I think his larger sample in triple-A give a clear indication that you will expect better at the MLB level.

A quick comparison to Sizemore's career arc (although Sizemore was two years younger at each level as a high school draftee):

Sizemore had a final AAA season of a .798 OPS, a sub-100 OPS+ MLB debut over 100+ ABs
Bradley had a final AAA season of a .842 OPS, and a worse sub-100 OPS+ MLB debut over 100+ ABs.

Sizemore then had back to back MVP vote getting 6.6 WAR seasons following his cup of coffee struggles.

I'm not saying that Bradley follows that model and is a start this season, but I don't think his 100 ABs in MLB last year are statistically predictive any more than his spring training oppo homer against Cliff Lee is indicative of his expected power performance vs LHP.

What I am saying is that it is quite normal for a young hitter to struggle in a 100 AB debut, and then excel the following year having made some adjustments and learned.

A much younger, but Mike Trout did the same thing. A more similar Coco Crisp struggled on his 100 AB debut, then had a rough first full season before excelling in his second and third year. Kemp struggled in his 100+ AB debut and did fine in year two.

I think barring having time taken by a shockingly resurgent and healthy Sizemore, Bradley will have what is considered by all measures a good 2014 season as a 400+ AB starter, and we will not be breaking down his struggles and defects and wondering if we can land someone at the trading deadline.

I'm down with this. I still think that, if Sizemore returns to form, he will eventually take over in LF for those good quality journeymen (Nava and Gomes) who will do well to match their upside performance from last season. If Sizemore's career undertakes more of a Molitor than a Westmoreland trajectory, he could combine with Bradley and Victorino to compose one of the best overall outfields in memory for the Sox.

Plympton91 · Jan 30, 2014

I'll take Yaz, Lynn, Dewey; Manny, Damon, Nixon; and Bay, Ellsbury, Drew. Just from my lifetime.

Savin Hillbilly · Jan 31, 2014

The Boomer said:
I'm down with this. I still think that, if Sizemore returns to form, he will eventually take over in LF for those good quality journeymen (Nava and Gomes) who will do well to match their upside performance from last season. If Sizemore's career undertakes more of a Molitor than a Westmoreland trajectory, he could combine with Bradley and Victorino to compose one of the best overall outfields in memory for the Sox.

Whoa nellie. Molitor never missed even a single full season, though he came pretty close in 1984. Sizemore has missed two in a row. He hasn't posted a wRC+ over 100 in five years, and hasn't started 100 outfield games in six. It would be borderline miraculous at this point if he could stay on the roster all year as a quality part-time player, never mind becoming part of some kind of epic outfield troika (and frankly, that's being overoptimistic about Victorino and Bradley as well, even though I'm high on Bradley).

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Jan 31, 2014

I'm assuming he's talking about defense. Dewey, Lynn sure. How was Yaz in LF by the time Dewey and Lynn were around? And Damon and Manny? And Bay? Definitely defense.
Yeah, if Grady can bounce back and end up in LF, that defense OF trio could be epic.

seantoo · Jan 31, 2014

I think the first two years for any player are extremely hard to predict with any certain degree of accuracy. I may sound like a broken record in repeating the words of Ted Williams but he believes that you should not make a judgement on what a batter can do going forward until he's had 1,000 at bats in MLB or roughly the equivalent of two seasons. Defensive ability should transfer much more readily than offense.

Based on his MILB track record for the first two years I guestimate he'll bat for around league average in both BA and OBP (or just above with the OBP) with his SLG well below. His eye is so good that while I expect the typical slumps and hot streaks of young/all players I don't expect the same depths and heights to his bat line. I expect his defense to be good right off the bat but improve during the season as he becomes more familiar with each park and settles in.

I liked Jacoby better than most, part of that is great lead-off hitters may be the rarest and underated commidity in the game and he was an exceptional defensive player to boot. That said his OBP skills were not elite and JBJ's I believe can at least approach that level. I think that alone will eventually over compensate for the other aspects of Jacoby's game such as stealing bases and everything that skill set does to disrupt the other team.

JBJ reached Pawtucket a year younger (23 vs. 24) than JE.
JBJ's OBP in 370 AB was .374 verse JE's 436 AB w/ a .387 OBP. To summarize that JE at a year older had a slightly better OBP, somewhat comparable but a slight edge should be given to JBJ becuase of youth and growth yadda yadda yadda. But here's the rub, the difference between OBP minus BA is a skillset. Elite players often have a difference of .70 points or more.

JE's difference between his OBP minus BA in his last minor league season (387-323) is .044 points solid but not particularly great.
JBJ's difference between his OBP minus BA in his assumed last minor league season (374-275) is .099 which is fan f'in tastic. That's an elite type of eye that bodes well for his major league career and still make him a useful batter even when he's slumping. This makes me feel comfortable stating he should at least approach an elite level of OBP with the Sox, in time.

EDIT: I expect JBJ will show modest improvement in year two then break-out in year three.

jhogan88 · Feb 1, 2014

In Pedroia's first 98 PAs he hit .191. The next year he won ROY and the year after the MVP. Let the kid adjust and get more ABs.

Jackie Bradley Jr.'s 2013 season and expectations.

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