Jackie Bradley, Jr. - Help

[mt8thsw9th]

So they send down the young player who's struggling at the plate, but who is a plus-plus defender only to replace him with a young player who is struggling at the plate who is still learning the position? How does that not just create a ripple effect across the rest of the team, particularity the young pitchers who get to pitch knowing that pitching to contact won't always kill them?

I'm not sure sending Bradley to AAA is going to fix anything. He's already demonstrated he can hit quite well at that level.

 

[twibnotes]

I'm not sure sending Bradley to AAA is going to fix anything. He's already demonstrated he can hit quite well at that level.

He has massive holes in his swing. Working on fixing that is bound to be easier in AAA.

If keeping Mookie in AAA is the right thing to do for his development, keep him there. His promotion doesn't need to be tied to JBJ's demotion.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
Betts would have to hit .850+ ops to match the difference between Bradley and his fielding.  Bradley is the best defensive CF in baseball at the moment.  Betts should be in AAA right now getting time at 3B, SS, 2B, RF, CF, LF.  He is doing nothing playing three games a week in Boston.

The bar isn't that high, at least per WAR (WAR calculator at http://wahoosonfirst.com/war-calculator/the-calculators/version-2-1/). A .720 OPS (.320/.400) matches JBJ's Fangraphs WAR (1.5) through 356 PA assuming league average D and baserunning, while a .740 OPS (.330/.410) matches his BBREF WAR (1.7). So unless you think Betts is likely to be a lousy defender or WAR underestimates JBJ's value, the bar is a lot lower than .850.

 

[rodderick]

So they send down the young player who's struggling at the plate, but who is a plus-plus defender only to replace him with a young player who is struggling at the plate who is still learning the position? How does that not just create a ripple effect across the rest of the team, particularity the young pitchers who get to pitch knowing that pitching to contact won't always kill them?

I'm not sure sending Bradley to AAA is going to fix anything. He's already demonstrated he can hit quite well at that level.

 
I don't disagree with your overall point, but are you implying Mookie Betts has been "struggling" after 40 MLB PAs?

 

[Reverend]

I'm not sure sending him down after 350 AB and 4 months qualifies as "yo yo'ing."  Going to AAA to regain confidence against lesser competition is a reasonable suggestion.  There is risk, but there is also risk in having him continue to flounder.  I sincerely hope he gets competent because his D is valuable and exciting.

 
I think the issue hinges on, if the problem is mechanical, in which place is he most likely to get the help he needs to work on his mechanics?
 
For example, if it is a mechanical problem, the last thing we should want is for Bradley to go down to AAA and get renewed confidence in his shitty swing.

 

[Drek717]

I'm not sure sending Bradley to AAA is going to fix anything. He's already demonstrated he can hit quite well at that level.

Bradley has had 320 ABs in AAA and only 229 in AA.  I wouldn't say it's accurate to say he's demonstrated he can hit quite well at that level.
 
In fact, he's going to be close to having more MLB ABs at the end of his first full season than he's had minor league ABs total.  That isn't much developmental time at all.  I don't think a bit more time at AAA is going to hurt Bradley one bit.  If he's really so mentally fragile that hitting getting sent down for having an OPS hovering around .600 he's not mentally tough enough to make it period (which I don't believe to be true).

 

[twibnotes]

The bar isn't that high, at least per WAR (WAR calculator at http://wahoosonfirst.com/war-calculator/the-calculators/version-2-1/). A .720 OPS (.320/.400) matches JBJ's Fangraphs WAR (1.5) through 356 PA assuming league average D and baserunning, while a .740 OPS (.330/.410) matches his BBREF WAR (1.7). So unless you think Betts is likely to be a lousy defender or WAR underestimates JBJ's value, the bar is a lot lower than .850.

Decent chance mookie will be the better baserunner than jbj too

 

[twibnotes]

 
I think the issue hinges on, if the problem is mechanical, in which place is he most likely to get the help he needs to work on his mechanics?
 
For example, if it is a mechanical problem, the last thing we should want is for Bradley to go down to AAA and get renewed confidence in his shitty swing.

Has anyone seen enough of jbj's minor league abs to say whether his swing has gotten loopier? With some of the abs he's putting up now, it's hard to envision him succeeding with that swing even in aaa

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

From bb-ref's Play Index"

Interesting list. Gary Pettis shows up a lot. Between 1987 and 1988, Pettis go 960 PAs despite slugging .259 in 1987 (OPS 53) and .277 in 1988 (OPS 61). 4 HRs with 209 Ks total. But as most of us already know, boy could he field the position.

 

[Plympton91]

Pettis, and the other guy on that list multiple times, Moreno, were also elite base stealers. If Bradley was up around 40 steals and regularly going first to home on doubles, there'd be more of an argument that he wasn't killing you on offense.

Why is Betts in the majors playing part time? He should be playing everyday regarless of what level he is at.

 

[Toe Nash]

Pettis also got on base at a .330 clip, and his offensive performance was ~80 OPS+ (as compared to JBJ's 65 OPS+).

I get that he's excellent defensively, but he's averaging <3 putouts a game. How many of those are plays that most guys don't make? It's difficult to envision even the best defensive CF having such an impact defensively, IMO.

I think UZR is in the ballpark here. They have him with +10 in range in 850 innings (and his arm adds an additional +4). That's one run every 85 innings or 9.5 games. If you consider he is mostly saving doubles and triples (worth a good portion of a run), then maybe he makes one play an average fielder wouldn't make every 6 games?
 
The best CFer in the UZR era (min 1000 innings) is Juan Lagares, but a big part of his value comes from his arm. Range only, it's complicated to calculate but it may be Darin Erstad who was +42 RngR in 2684 innings in CF. That's one run saved above average every 63 innings / 7 g. I would have to think that is close to the limit of the value a center-fielder can have.

 

[LondonSox]

Why is Betts in the majors playing part time? He should be playing everyday regarless of what level he is at.

This. He may be good but he's young and developing. More abs is the most important thing, esp when the games don't matter!

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Pettis also got on base at a .330 clip, and his offensive performance was ~80 OPS+ (as compared to JBJ's 65 OPS+).

I get that he's excellent defensively, but he's averaging <3 putouts a game. How many of those are plays that most guys don't make? It's difficult to envision even the best defensive CF having such an impact defensively, IMO.

 
Comparing Pettis to Bradley needs a bit of an asterisk, though, because Pettis had over 2500 minor league PA compared to JBJ's 989. By the time he had accumulated as many major league PA as Bradley has, he was 26 years old.
 
True, Bradley played college ball and Pettis didn't, but that's not quite the same thing.

 

[jscola85]

JBJ is now at a .299 SLG. The next lowest SLG among outfielders is BJ Upton (.324), followed by Norichika Aoki (.329), Domonic Brown (.339), and Allen Craig (.348).

In the last twenty years, only 7 OF's have qualified for the batting title and had a SLG <.310.

Willy Taveras (1998): .296
Darren Lewis (1995 .297
Michael Bourn (1998): .300
Brian Hunter (1999): .301
Rickey Henderson (2000): .305
Gregor Blanco (2008): .309
Darren Lewis (1998): .309

 
Unfortunately, Darren Lewis doesn't seem like that bad of a comp for JBJ right now.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

The best CFer in the UZR era (min 1000 innings) is Juan Lagares, but a big part of his value comes from his arm.

 
Is it slightly good news that the guy who slashed .281/.322/.403 in the minors, and was .242/.281/.352 through his first 421 PAs at age 24, is at a 99 OPS+ in his age 25 year? Bradley's hugely disappointing line is so far away from all of his projections over the past two years, that it raises the question whether his performance thus far has been the outlier, or if the projections completely overrated him (not to mention the scouts that rated him a consensus top 50 prospect coming into this season). There is also the chance that his (non-throwing) wrist issue from college could be an issue again, but that is pure speculation given there hasn't been a mention of health issues this season.
 
Perhaps I'm grasping at straws, but something doesn't add up.

 

[Rasputin]

 
From bb-ref's Play Index"
 
 

 
I remember thinking that Michael Coleman's floor was Gary Pettis.
 
Sigh...

 

[Plympton91]

 
Comparing Pettis to Bradley needs a bit of an asterisk, though, because Pettis had over 2500 minor league PA compared to JBJ's 989. By the time he had accumulated as many major league PA as Bradley has, he was 26 years old.
 
True, Bradley played college ball and Pettis didn't, but that's not quite the same thing.

Doesn't that argue that Bradley was rushed this year? And that perhaps the plan for 2015 ought to include more AAA at bats for Bradley? He could get another shot in 2016 when Victorino and Cespedes aren't resigned and Craig is either taking over for Napoli or retired due to his foot injury.

 
Unfortunately, Darren Lewis doesn't seem like that bad of a comp for JBJ right now.

The problem with that comp is that Darren Lewis stole 30 to 50 bases a season in his prime. Bradley can't do that.

 

[Zedia]

The problem with that comp is that Darren Lewis stole 30 to 50 bases a season in his prime. Bradley can't do that.

He might if he were willing to get caught 30% of the time.

 

[OttoC]

If there is a book in the Show on Junior and he gets sent down to Triple-A, the book should follow pretty quickly. If he hits down there as he has in the past, then some other explanation is needed. Psychological? Pressure? AAAA? I think he should have been send down to get the question answered.

 

[twibnotes]

Good piece on JBJ went up this morning on Over the Monster

http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/8/8/5981007/how-worried-should-we-be-about-jackie-bradley

 

[Dalton Jones]

That's an ominous piece.

 

[Fred in Lynn]

Decisions on JBJ should just be tabled until next spring. The most likely cause of his very disappointing year is that he is having a lot of trouble adjusting to ML pitching and is so out of sorts that he can't fix it on the fly. Let him play out the year in Boston or AAA without additional expectation and reevaluate in the spring. It's too early to throw in the towel.

 

[arzjake]

To the scouting guru's out there,  Here is my ?  If a player can hit a 90+ mph fastball plus off speed  in AAA, why wouldn't that transcend to the ML level of play? 
 
Same with Middlebrooks, AAA stats at times were excellent. MLB level, guy can't hit a lick, but yet showed a flash of consistent AB's. Same with Bogaerts.
Yet Vazquez comes up and holds his own?
 
How much does coaching come into play? 
How long do you stick with these players before u cut bait?

 

[Al Zarilla]

To the scouting guru's out there,  Here is my ?  If a player can hit a 90+ mph fastball plus off speed  in AAA, why wouldn't that transcend to the ML level of play? 
 
Same with Middlebrooks, AAA stats at times were excellent. MLB level, guy can't hit a lick, but yet showed a flash of consistent AB's. Same with Bogaerts.
Yet Vazquez comes up and holds his own?
 
How much does coaching come into play? 
How long do you stick with these players before u cut bait?

You're guess is as good as anybody's. Tough decisions for Ben C. and Farrell this year. 

 

[alwyn96]

You're guess is as good as anybody's. Tough decisions for Ben C. and Farrell this year. 

 
Yeah, how long you stick with a guy before you cut bait is always tricky. Sometimes a guy will turn into a Brandon Moss or Jose Baustista, but it's pretty rare, and even if they do, how how many years of lousy performance are you willing to accept on that off chance?
 
It's probably inevitable that a guy who the Red Sox trade or DFA this offseason will eventually put it together somewhere else, although for every Rizzo there's a couple Casey Fossums or Lars Andersons or Ryan Kalishs that go nowhere. 

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

To the scouting guru's out there,  Here is my ?  If a player can hit a 90+ mph fastball plus off speed  in AAA, why wouldn't that transcend to the ML level of play? 
 
Same with Middlebrooks, AAA stats at times were excellent. MLB level, guy can't hit a lick, but yet showed a flash of consistent AB's. Same with Bogaerts.
Yet Vazquez comes up and holds his own?
 
How much does coaching come into play? 
How long do you stick with these players before u cut bait?

Vazquez's sample size is very small.  Remember, Xander was hitting .300 at the end of May.
 
It doesn't always transcend because the pitchers at the Major League level are better.  Some hitters can make that jump, and some just never can.  Is it really a whole lot more complicated than that?

 

[threecy]

To the scouting guru's out there,  Here is my ?  If a player can hit a 90+ mph fastball plus off speed  in AAA, why wouldn't that transcend to the ML level of play? 

I'm not responding as a scouting guru, but I suspect scouting itself may come into play.  I can't imagine AAA coaches/teams spend a lot of time doing advance scouting/etc. to try to figure out how to get other minor leaguers out.  Whereas, I can't imagine it takes long for Major League scouts/coaches to figure out how to get a big leaguer out.  JBJ, WMB, and XB all had flashes of offensive excellent early on (technically JBJ's was in spring training 2013, but I suspect it was enough of a sample for scouts to figure him out) in their MLB careers, but were subsequently taken down to earth.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

If I were advising JBJ, I'd tell him to forget everything the Sox coaches have told him this year, and go back to his previous form.
 
His swing is so darn fiddley right now, things can only get better.
 
Looking at jnai's Brooks Baseball site and JBJ's heat maps, it seems that in trying to close out the hole in one quadrant of the zone (down and in), he's opened up holes in the other three.

 

[zimmerolls]

Good piece on JBJ went up this morning on Over the Monster

http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/8/8/5981007/how-worried-should-we-be-about-jackie-bradley

 
Pretty sobering article. God if he wasn't so stellar offensively this wouldn't be the least bit agonizing. The RS have someone pretty special here lights to  in the field but so tentative at the bat.  It's so easy for the video guys to cue up every pitch and every count a player doesn't handle well at this level that the flaws of JBJ, Xander and WM are glaring and exploitable I'm not sure how much advance scouting has been wasted on them since none has really posed a threat.  If he could get on base he might evolve into a threat.  He does have great speed and has managed to steal 7 bases and has not been CS  with a very limp OBP, it sure would be great if he could at least become Mark Bellhorn-esque with a solid OBP and some occasional power. at least get on base to use his speed  might help him keep is job.  Sure would be great to fix this guy. 

 

[jacklamabe65]

I would keep him and turn him into a Rick Miller defensive replacement in the late innings if he just couldn't hit. His legs and his glove would be an occasional game-saver as they were last night.

 

[OttoC]

I wonder if there is any thought being given to having Junior play in a Fall/Winter league.

 

[ivanvamp]

We all know his massive struggles with the bat.  But he's been so incredibly good in the field, and also very good on the base paths, that he still has quite a bit of value to the Red Sox.
 
Runs above average (fangraphs):
- Offense:  -14.4
- Defense:  +16.1
 
WAR
- Fangraphs:  +1.5
- B-ref:  +1.8
- ESPN:  +1.8
 
At roughly $5.5 million per WAR, that puts Bradley's value at around $9 million.  Now, we know that nobody would pay him that much right now, which means he's actually providing the Red Sox with considerable surplus value, despite his terrible hitting production.  
 
If the rest of the offense was doing what it was supposed to do, you could easily live with him in CF with no worries.  In fact, I'd *still* keep him there.  Work all offseason and spring training and let him keep rolling.  Unless I thought that time in AAA would "fix" him, which I'm not sure about right now.  
 
His defense has been so very, very good that it enables him to provide good value despite the bad bat.
 
For some context, looking at ESPN stats and sorting all MLB CFs by WAR, Bradley comes in 18th.  Here is a group of CFs that Bradley is out-WARing despite worse offensive numbers (I think these numbers are before last night's game):
 
Bradley: 324 ab, .216/.288/.296/.584, +1.8 WAR
Crisp:  296 ab, .270/.372/.412/.784, +1.8 WAR
A. Jackson:  402 ab, .271/.331/.388/.719, +1.6 WAR
Santana:  212 ab, .307/.351/.467/.818, +1.6 WAR
Fowler:  285 ab, .270/.377/.396/.774, +1.2 WAR
Revere:  403 ab, .313/.331/.372/.703, +0.5 WAR
 
He's only 0.7 WAR behind Ellsbury, of all people.  
 
The point is that he's actually been at least an average starting CF, when everything is taken into account.  And an average quality starting CF making the league minimum is a pretty nice thing to have.  

 

[joe dokes]

We all know his massive struggles with the bat.  But he's been so incredibly good in the field, and also very good on the base paths, that he still has quite a bit of value to the Red Sox.
 
Runs above average (fangraphs):
- Offense:  -14.4
- Defense:  +16.1
 
WAR
- Fangraphs:  +1.5
- B-ref:  +1.8
- ESPN:  +1.8
 
At roughly $5.5 million per WAR, that puts Bradley's value at around $9 million.  Now, we know that nobody would pay him that much right now, which means he's actually providing the Red Sox with considerable surplus value, despite his terrible hitting production.  
 
If the rest of the offense was doing what it was supposed to do, you could easily live with him in CF with no worries.  In fact, I'd *still* keep him there.  Work all offseason and spring training and let him keep rolling.  Unless I thought that time in AAA would "fix" him, which I'm not sure about right now.  
 
His defense has been so very, very good that it enables him to provide good value despite the bad bat.
 
For some context, looking at ESPN stats and sorting all MLB CFs by WAR, Bradley comes in 18th.  Here is a group of CFs that Bradley is out-WARing despite worse offensive numbers (I think these numbers are before last night's game):
 
Bradley: 324 ab, .216/.288/.296/.584, +1.8 WAR
Crisp:  296 ab, .270/.372/.412/.784, +1.8 WAR
A. Jackson:  402 ab, .271/.331/.388/.719, +1.6 WAR
Santana:  212 ab, .307/.351/.467/.818, +1.6 WAR
Fowler:  285 ab, .270/.377/.396/.774, +1.2 WAR
Revere:  403 ab, .313/.331/.372/.703, +0.5 WAR
 
He's only 0.7 WAR behind Ellsbury, of all people.  
 
The point is that he's actually been at least an average starting CF, when everything is taken into account.  And an average quality starting CF making the league minimum is a pretty nice thing to have.  

That's good stuff. I'm trying to imagine having a conversation with some of the high-waisted pants set trying to convince them.

 

[iayork]

For the little it's worth, I think outfielders tend to peak defensively very early in their career; either in their first year, or within the first 2-3 years.  If so, and if it's true for JBJ, he'll need to step it up with the bat to continue to have positive value.  Here's a look at UZR/150 for outfielders who played more than 3 years at their position, as a percentage of peak fielding; this is a repeat-measures ANOVA on the UZR/150, as suggested by kieckeredinthehead, but less-manipulated versions of the data make it look worse, if anything.
 

Spoiler

 
(Simpler version

Spoiler

 

[Plympton91]

The problem you'd have in convincing me is that even proponents of the so-called advanced defensive metrics admit that the error bars around defensive WAR are massive, and on top of that nobody has posted a convincing rebuttal to my claim that the statistic is as context dependent as RBI or runs scored.

When a fly ball is hit to the outfield, one of 3 outfielders will catch it. If there are 3 gold glover types then they'll split the balls in the gaps about evenly. If a gold glove center fielder is playing between two butchers, then the gg crenterfielder will catch a disproportionate number of balls in LCF and RCF. The center fielder between two butchers will then have a higher WAR than the one flanked by two other gold glover types simply by virtue of getting more opportunities to make out of zone plays.

For instance, last I checked Brett Gardner's dWAR was only a tick above average this year, wheras in previous years he's graded out as godlike in LF. Do we really think he's regressed a ton over 2 years, or do you think Ellsbury is getting to more balls in LCF that Gardner would catch when Grandy was pretending to still be a CF?


Am I wrong?

 

[The Gray Eagle]

That's good stuff. I'm trying to imagine having a conversation with some of the high-waisted pants set trying to convince them.

Just tell them that we have another Paul Blair in CF, and you can win a lot of games with a Paul Blair type in CF. (Not that Blair is the ideal comp for Bradley-- Blair was RH stole a lot more bases-- but he was an incredible defensive CF who wasn't known for hitting that the high-waist types will remember and respect.)
 
On the other hand, Bradley has been horrible with the bat, not just below average or even poor. Sure his incredible glove balances that a bit, but it's not good for your team to have too many guys in the lineup who are horrible at any really important part of the game. I think most people agree that if Bradley can get his offense up from horrible to below average, he will be a winning player, but if he stays horrible with the bat, that makes it a lot harder to win. He's basically an automatic out at this point, with zero power. Maybe you can win with one guy like that in your lineup, but it makes it a lot harder.
 
The team needs to do whatever is best for his offensive development right now, whether it's to keep running him out there, reduce his playing time or send him to AAA. He's had more time off lately, hopefully it will clear his head and hopefully he will be making adjustments in practice time, like dumping that ridiculous toe tap, etc. He looks hopeless at the plate right now.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I wonder if there is any thought being given to having Junior play in a Fall/Winter league.

I can't recall a MLB player doing this (but I'm old and forgetful).

 

[Byrdbrain]

MLB players play in Winter Leagues all the time, but if the reference was to the Arizona Fall League they don't play in that.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

On the other hand, Bradley has been horrible with the bat, not just below average or even poor. Sure his incredible glove balances that a bit, but it's not good for your team to have too many guys in the lineup who are horrible at any really important part of the game. I think most people agree that if Bradley can get his offense up from horrible to below average, he will be a winning player, but if he stays horrible with the bat, that makes it a lot harder to win. He's basically an automatic out at this point, with zero power. Maybe you can win with one guy like that in your lineup, but it makes it a lot harder.

 
This is all absolutely right, of course. But the one thing that needs to be added to it is that it's still extremely early. <500 PA for a hitter is something like <200 innings for a pitcher; it's a big enough sample to give you a pretty good idea about what the problems are, but not enough to tell you how well he's going to solve them.
 
Perspective: since 1947 there have been 265 players who had at least 300 PA over their first two seasons with an OPS+ of <75. Bradley ranks 115th on that list (with the worst OPS+ as #1). Among the other guys on the list are the following, all of whom went on to become at least average-ish hitters. Numbers in parens are OPS+ through first 2 years, followed by career OPS+ (incomplete for some, of course):
 
Brandon Phillips (48, 96)
Brady Anderson (57, 109)
Rich Aurilia (60, 99)
Terry Pendleton (66, 92)
Yadier Molina (70, 100)
Carlos Gonzalez (71, 122)
Randy Winn (71, 99)
B.J. Surhoff (71, 98)
Johnny Damon (73, 104)
 
Granted, this is 9 out of 265 (though there may be a few I missed). The list is mostly populated with familiar names of good-field, no-hit guys like Kubek and Spike Owen and Larry Bowa.
 
But still, it's too soon to write JBJ off. Carlos Gonzalez's line after 361 PA (JBJ has 359) was .239/.273/.359, which was a worse line five years ago than it would be now. Of course I'm not saying that JBJ is CarGo; the point is that we don't know who he is yet, any more than anybody knew who CarGo was after his first year and change.

 

[nvalvo]

The problem you'd have in convincing me is that even proponents of the so-called advanced defensive metrics admit that the error bars around defensive WAR are massive, and on top of that nobody has posted a convincing rebuttal to my claim that the statistic is as context dependent as RBI or runs scored.

When a fly ball is hit to the outfield, one of 3 outfielders will catch it. If there are 3 gold glover types then they'll split the balls in the gaps about evenly. If a gold glove center fielder is playing between two butchers, then the gg crenterfielder will catch a disproportionate number of balls in LCF and RCF. The center fielder between two butchers will then have a higher WAR than the one flanked by two other gold glover types simply by virtue of getting more opportunities to make out of zone plays.

For instance, last I checked Brett Gardner's dWAR was only a tick above average this year, wheras in previous years he's graded out as godlike in LF. Do we really think he's regressed a ton over 2 years, or do you think Ellsbury is getting to more balls in LCF that Gardner would catch when Grandy was pretending to still be a CF?


Am I wrong?

 
There is absolutely some of that, yes. But that is a larger problem in the abstract than it is here. We know Bradley's range was useful to the Sox and Gardner to the Yankees precisely because they made the outs that allowed them to rack up the OOZ plays that led to their huge UZR numbers. 
 
It is like RBI in that it depends on opportunities provided by teammates — but it's in covering the slack of teammates, rather than receiving credit for their positive contributions. This is important, because it speaks to important truths of roster construction. Basically, in your scenario, Gardner is getting credited by UZR for allowing the Yankees to play a poor-defending slugger in CF. Which he did, and they did. 
 
For a team that appears to be contemplating an outfield with Yoenis Cespedes and Allen Craig in the corners, having somebody who can cover a meaningful proportion of the RF and LF zones might well be very valuable. UZR would value Bradley less playing between, let's say, a healthy Brett Gardner and a healthy Shane Victorino. And he would, in fact, be less valuable. 
 
Bradley saved something like four total bases relative to an average CF in two innings of a close game last night. The question of whether, let's say, Brock Holt or Mookie Betts can get to those balls as well (I doubt it) is really important to us right now. 

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I can't recall a MLB player doing this (but I'm old and forgetful).

 
I'd rather JBJ work with a private hitting coach than have him play in the winter league.  Dedicated, unrelenting, unconventional offseason training to rebuild his swing mechanics after the 2011 season finally lifted Michael Saunders from dreadful (635 PA, .196/.263/.306, 60 OPS+) to average (1240 PA, .248/.316/.419, 108 OPS+).  I think we can all agree that a 108 OPS+ out of JBJ easily makes him a keeper.
 
And JBJ's swing is so messed up right now I think he, too, really needs to rebuild from the ground up.  Don't know whether Bard's the right guy, or the old college coach at USC, or some guy his uncle knows, but JBJ needs to quickly figure out who is.  
 
Betts, on the other hand, I very much want playing CF in winter ball, as well as for the rest of the season in Pawtucket.  He needs as many reps in the field as possible, against whatever live hitting he can get.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Just tell them that we have another Paul Blair in CF, and you can win a lot of games with a Paul Blair type in CF. (Not that Blair is the ideal comp for Bradley-- Blair was RH stole a lot more bases-- but he was an incredible defensive CF who wasn't known for hitting that the high-waist types will remember and respect.)
 
On the other hand, Bradley has been horrible with the bat, not just below average or even poor. Sure his incredible glove balances that a bit, but it's not good for your team to have too many guys in the lineup who are horrible at any really important part of the game. I think most people agree that if Bradley can get his offense up from horrible to below average, he will be a winning player, but if he stays horrible with the bat, that makes it a lot harder to win. He's basically an automatic out at this point, with zero power. Maybe you can win with one guy like that in your lineup, but it makes it a lot harder.
 
The team needs to do whatever is best for his offensive development right now, whether it's to keep running him out there, reduce his playing time or send him to AAA. He's had more time off lately, hopefully it will clear his head and hopefully he will be making adjustments in practice time, like dumping that ridiculous toe tap, etc. He looks hopeless at the plate right now.

Blair had some pretty good hitting years early on though, so he was never in doubt as a keeper like Bradley is, or isn't. 

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

The thing that is either encouraging or discouraging--depending on your perspective--is that he was a different hitter for the better part of July.  And then, for some unknown reason, he reverted back to ineptitude near the end of the month.  I choose to be encouraged, in that it's in there somewhere.  How to get "that hitter" to return for good is the challenge of JBJ and the coaches.  But he has shown that he can hit well enough, for more than a few games in a row.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

The thing that is either encouraging or discouraging--depending on your perspective--is that he was a different hitter for the better part of July.  And then, for some unknown reason, he reverted back to ineptitude near the end of the month.  I choose to be encouraged, in that it's in there somewhere.  How to get "that hitter" to return for good is the challenge of JBJ and the coaches.  But he has shown that he can hit well enough, for more than a few games in a row.

 
Yeah, the All-Star break couldn't have happened at a worse time for JBJ.
 
It's like his muscle memory reverted back to the old suck.

 

[Lynchie]

I want this kid to succeed, just love what he brings to the field. Hope he starts improving once again.

 

[OttoC]

MLB players play in Winter Leagues all the time, but if the reference was to the Arizona Fall League they don't play in that.

 
I wasn't really thinking of the AFL but the qualifications read:  No players with more than one year of credited Major League service as of August 31 are eligible, except a team may select one player picked in the most recently concluded Major League Rule 5 Draft.

 

[twibnotes]

Given some of the insights above re UZR and how it is impacted by teammates, Victorino's health could be a big factor next year. JBJ's excellent defensive range would be more valuable with Craig/Cespedes/Nava in right vs. Victorino in right, no?

 

[Frisbetarian]

That's good stuff. I'm trying to imagine having a conversation with some of the high-waisted pants set trying to convince them.

 
Maybe the high-waisted pants sets would point to the fact that partial season UZR is notoriously inaccurate, and that JBJ's +28/150 games rating based on just 820 innings is completely unrealistic and should be regressed to the mean by like 75%. This would bring JBJ's WAR, and it makes me crazy when people use WAR as their main argument especially when it's so defense dependent and based on such a small sample size, back close to replacement level. 

The guy is a great fielder, no doubt, but he is not going to save 28 runs in 150 games. No one is on a long term basis. 

 

[geoduck no quahog]

The big question right now is:
 
Do you retain Bradley as a 4th outfielder/defensive replacement on the bench in 2015? Or,
Do you send Bradley back to Pawtucket to get reps in 2015?
 
I assume that as of today, the starting outfield for 2015 is Craig (LF), Victorino (CF), Cespedes (RF) - with Betts lurking (and given an artificial choice of keeping Betts or Bradley, you'd have to choose Betts, right?)
 
Wither goest JBJ? I guess we need to wait until after Spring Training 2015 to see that decision.

 

[scotian1]

Hate to see him being used just as a defensive replacement. Hopefully he will get starts at least the half of the time if not more.