It's good stuff, and is consistent with what the other few people have seen when examining the issue in depth, for example:
http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2013/10/the-truth-about-tony-romo.html
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/nfl-myth-busting-tony-romo-and-the-dallas-cowboys-are-americas-chokers/23434/
Part of me wonders if Romo suffers from the primacy effect; when he officially became the starter against the Giants in 2006, his first pass was a pick. He followed that up with two more picks that game. Of course, that was the same year where Romo fumbled the snap on a 19-yard FG in the WC game.
I do have a few comments, however, I don't think they detract from your primary point. Points #2 and #3 may require you to add some corrections though:
1) Early on you write, "Another primary source of criticism is Romo’s gunslinging mentality. However, it should not be surprising that a guy who grew up idolizing
Brett Favre would adopt that style for his own. Through coaching and experience, such tendencies have gradually been replaced by better decision-making, but bumps in the road remain."
Personally, I'm not a big fan of the term gunslinger, because it is difficult to define operationally (what's the threshold for completion percentage, percent of balls thrown deep, or interception percentage?). Nevertheless, Brett Favre is pretty difference from Tony Romo in all regards. Brett Favre had a 62 percent completion percentage for his career, and a 3.5 percent interception rate. I can't find Favre's %deep until his last five years in the league, but its about 19.4. Tony Romo has a 2.5 percent interception rate, a 65 percent completion percentage for his career, and has thrown 19.6% of his passes more than 20 yards in the air. In fact, Tony Romo is more comparable to Tom Brady or Peyton Manning than Favre. Romo's completion percentage ranks in between the two (better than Brady but worse than Manning), and his interception rate is only slightly higher than Manning's (2.5 to 2.4 percent; Brady has an insane 2.0 interception percentage), Romo has thrown a greater proportion of balls deep than Brady (18.9%), but less than Manning (%20.5).
A player, who I think we can agree would likely fit most people's conception of a "gunslinger" is the enigmatic chicago quarterback, Jay Cutler, who has career numbers that are remarkably similar to Favre's. Cutler has a 61.5 completion percentage, a 3.3 percent interception rate, and 21.5 percent of his attempts put the ball more than 20 yards in the air.
I understand that you are making the claim that Romo has progressed from gunslinger to careful decider, and he certainly has gotten better as a QB, but he's never really thrown the ball deep save for three seasons, had a low interception percentage from 2008 on, and has had one season below a 63 percent completion rate. Its hard to see much evidence that Romo has played like a gunslinger such as Brett Favre at any point of his NFL career.
2) Regarding the 2011 Lions-Cowboys game you write, "That raises the question: Why in the world would the Cowboys throw the ball 13 times in the second half of a game in which they led by 24 points?". Is this number accurate, or did you mean to write that the Cowboys
ran the ball 13 times in the second half? If it is accurate, I'm kind of confused, because that would mean that they ran the ball more than they passed in the second half, relative to the first half.
In any case, your point is still being made that the convential wisdom says to run more than pass with a dramatic lead. However, this is a difficult question to answer, given that few models examine what would happen if a team abandoned one dimension of offense (or offense entirely) when leading by three or more scores going in to halftime. Assuming you meant 13 running plays above, it looks like the cowboys attempted 14 running plays and 23 passing plays in the first half, and 13 running plays and 24 passing plays in the second half. In other words, the Cowboys had the same ratio of pass-to-run in the first half as in the second half.
3) You then write, " from 12:23 remaining in the third quarter to 1:39 remaining in the fourth quarter – Dallas ran the ball only 11 times despite averaging 4.2 yards per carry on the day." Actually, I think this explains the potentialy inaccuracy in #2; I think you were looking at the detroit lions statistics instead of the cowboys. The Cowboys started with the ball in the second half of the game, having kicked off in the first half.
4) "The dirty little secret no one seems to talk about is that Romo has long been asked to do too much – indeed, too much for perhaps any quarterback. Only once since Bill Parcells left the team following the 2006 season have the Cowboys averaged more than 28 rushing attempts per game – in 2014. What this has meant is that Romo would average 35 passing attempts per game in the post-Parcells era. That comprises nearly 60% of their offensive plays over a four-year period".
This may have to do with overall trends in modern offenses than anything else. 35 passing attempts per game is above average, but other quarterbacks have thrown more: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Matt Stafford immediately come to mind, but there are others over the years (Jon Kitna, Carson Palmer, Matt Schaub).
I think a more accurate statement is that Romo has been asked to do too much without sufficient talent around him, which is where you are going with this piece anyways. The primary point you are trying to make is that "[t]here’s only so much a quarterback can do with a patchwork offensive line, a shoddy running game and an average defense." I don't think you are trying to make a point about pass/run ratios, which is much more difficult to defend.
