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Is baseball headed for a strike in 2022?

Discussion in 'MLB Discussion' started by soxhop411, Jan 10, 2019.

?

Do you think we will have a strike when the MLB CBA expires

  1. Yes

  2. NO

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    11,652
    I don’t think it’s as big a deal as you think it is. Teams that aren’t trying to win aren’t going to pay 10x , 20x the minimum to sign an Adam Jones type just because they get to stash him at AAA if he goes into a slump or sudden decline. Teams aren’t signing those types of veterans to middle class contracts because they’d rather put a Jacoby Jones type out there for the minimum and shoot for a few more losses and a higher draft pool.

    As we just saw with Josh Harrison, what these teams want veterans to do is to sign for rock bottom contracts, options or no options.

    And if you’re talking about teams that are trying to win, then my point about encouraging talent hoarding comes into play. Yeah, I’m sure the Yankees and Dodgers would love to be able to sign 3 or 4 veterans for 3 or 4 million each and stash them in AAA for emergencies. But that just makes the rich even richer.
     
    #51 Plympton91, Feb 22, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2019
  2. Max Power

    Max Power thai good. you like shirt? SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,468
    That doesn't get to the heart of the issue. Pre-FA players generally produce more than free agents overall. When you consider salary on top of that production, they can literally be an order of magnitude more valuable. Messing around the edges of free agency isn't going to change team behavior when it makes so much more sense to try to hoard younger players.

    There are only two solutions. 1. Pay players more before their free agent years. 2. Bring back steroids to make older players more valuable.
     
  3. Boggs26

    Boggs26 Member SoSH Member

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    1,102
    The more I read, the more I think an enforced salary floor is a big party of the answer. With a floor of 125M, nearly 1/3rd of the league would have needed to spend more money - some a lot more. That would almost certainly mean that some clubs would be in on FAs that they skipped on under the current system, and other clubs would probably offer long term extensions to their younger players.

    I think adjusting the risk of long-term extensions for pre-arb players could be good in a number of ways. Obviously paying young stars more is good for the player, but it's also likely that teams would wind up with fewer albatrosses which is good for teams, and finally teams would become more likely to hold on to players past their Arb years which I think would be good for the sport.
     
  4. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    16,213
    Correct. The issue is that professional sports have found themselves in a system where winning is not incentivized. When teams can do better by losing, that's a terrible place to be for a product that depends on competition.
     
  5. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

    Messages:
    11,652
    Exactly. I was glad to see that the players’ counterproposal this winter went in the direction of penalizing teams for losing.
     
  6. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    16,213
    Baseball needs to incentivize teams that. Winning 80 games but not making the playoffs is heroic in the current system. Whether it's giving such teams additional revenue sharing; more cap; more draft cap; more international cap; or some sort of player exemption (i.e., what if teams that win over 75 games but don't make the playoffs are allowed to sign one player to a one-year deal that doesn't count against the cap?) - there are dozens of ways to do it but something has to be done to get every team to try.
     
  7. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

    Messages:
    11,652
    Yup, I’ve made the exact same suggestion in several posts in the Baseball is broken thread. I think that’s exactly what is needed. Could also do something like if you lose 100 games your draft pick drops 5 spots.
     
  8. charlieoscar

    charlieoscar Member

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    1,339
    Penalizing teams for losing?

    Is there enough talent to go around to prevent that? For example, in the 2018 season there were 27 players who hit 30+ HR but only 15 who hit 35+ and there were only 16 batters qualifying for the batting title who hit .300+ and only six who hit .310+. You'll see the same type of thing when you look at pitchers and part-time players. I realize that there are other factors involved but I don't think there is enough talent to put all 30 teams on more or less an equal basis.
     
  9. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    11,652
    So what? The point is to generate demand for talented players, not to make it easy for teams to avoid the penalties. And “don’t lose 100 games” is not exactly a demand that teams be on equal footing. It’s a demand they not field replacement level minimum salaried non-prospects at half the positions on the field like the Marlins and Orioles are planning to do.

    And I’d disagree there isn’t enough talent. There’s a whole expansion team of major leaguers who were starters last season out there still. With the opening of Japan, Korea, and Cuba, plus population growth in the past 20 years, MLB should have 36 teams, probably.
     
  10. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    16,213
    Yeah, I'm going to the other way. Our current structure of salary and talent acquisition incentivizes teams to lose, or at least not try to win. So long as the franchise doesn't fold, losing 500 games over 5 seasons is going to be a long-term benefit to the team, as we are about to see with the Os.

    What baseball needs to do is incentivize winning. Plympton has mentioned this in other threads and I agree with him. My belief is that penalizing losing is not enough; that teams have to be given an incentive try. I think there are some ways of doing it but it doesn't matter what they do so long as they do something. Having 8-12 teams not try in one year is terrible for baseball.
     
  11. Sandwich Pick

    Sandwich Pick lurker

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    14
    One of the things they can do is make 1st round picks lottery picks. The first 10 (half of the teams who miss the playoffs) can all have an equal chance at the first overall pick.

    I don't think a salary floor will help because it will just create another situation where the money goes to guys who dont deserve it in the name of cap compliance.
     
  12. keninten

    keninten lurker

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    523
    What about just flipping the draft order a bit. The worst team gets the 10th pick and the 21th best team gets the 1st pick. The 20th best team gets #20 and the top team to miss the playoffs,11th place, gets 11th pick. It would incentivize winning.
     
  13. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    9,741
    I think adding a 26th roster spot will be a talking point. It's more money to the players without increasing individual salaries and that's where the game is headed anyway.
     
  14. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,994
    Well I didn’t see this coming.

    There is the possibility that MLB/MLBPA extend the CBA if they can hash out differences


    https://nypost.com/2019/03/01/august-trades-on-the-ropes-as-part-of-mlb-rule-change-talks/
     
  15. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    12,802

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