Benintendi would have been rushed through the minors, but he's already older than Betts and Bogaerts were when they made it to the big leagues to stay. If he's the best left fielder in the organization come July/August he might be in Boston.
Infinite trade speculation
- Thread starter dhappy42
- Start date
I think the whole reason they're trying out new guys in LF in Pawtucket is precisely so they have multiple options and can go with the hottest hand if Holt goes down or is needed elsewhere. Look, they know as well as we do that Holt's greatest value is in his flexibility; nothing prevented them from making a play for a full time LF in the off season. It reads to me like they feel they have their man in Benintendi and are just plugging the hole until he's ready; that they haven't gone after someone makes me think Keith Law's prediction of an August call-up may be spot on.
- Rutledge is the first call if an infielder goes down. I don't think we see Marrero again, at least until rosters expand, unless he miraculously starts to hit.
- Why are people still down on O'Sullivan? He's shown himself to be currently better than any of the other guys you listed. He's here until Edro's ready, and Kelly's a reliever and hopefully a minor leaguer until he proves otherwise.
- Unless we go acquire four more proven and current #1s, the only thing that bumps Wright out of the rotation is injury or implosion.
I actually think Hernandez (if an infielder) or even Swihart (if LF) would get a shot if it were a long term injury, at least in the strong part of the platoon.
Rutledge has traditionally been a bit of a butcher in the field, but he has played well in his stint. Hernandez could probably hit just well enough to play 3B or wherever in the infield unlike Marrero.
Shaw could also slide into LF if needed.
One other guy to look out for in AAA as a starter is Aaron Wilkerson. Fangraphs does a weekly fringe 5 prospect column of guys who deserve at least looksee's in the majors due to their performance, who may have been overlooked due to age.
It might be a good idea to find a LH platoon partner for Chris Young, returning Holt to that super utility role. If Benintendi can't do it, the Red Sox can hopefully trade for someone without giving up a top prospect. A guy like De Aza might be a nice fit for what the Red Sox need.
Joe Kelly has options, whereas a guy like Buchholz does not, and so Kelly probably gets demoted to AAA even if the Red Sox don't make a trade for a starting pitcher. If they trade a package of players revolving around Swihart for a number 2 starter, Wright stays in the rotation and Buchholz would be deactivated/released or maybe traded if he can show improvement. Buchholz is nearing his annual 8 month stint on the DL anyway--the chances of Buchholz staying healthy for the entire season AND pitching well are remote.
Who do we think will play CF or RF when JBJ gets another day off (Castillo played CF the only other game JBJ missed on 4/9) or when Mookie gets his first day off?
Theoretically, either JBJ or Mookie could cover the other position if the sub is only capable of playing one spot. But will we see Young in CF? Holt in RF? The return of Rusney?
I certainly don't expect a day off for either one any time soon, but when JBJ inevitably cools off, or when either one gets the inevitable ding, what then? And what happens if the ding is something that might mean a few days off?
It is really for that reason that I would like to see the Sox pick up some AAAA level OF depth, ideally someone who can play a credible CF or RF. Who could fill that bill?
Theoretically, either JBJ or Mookie could cover the other position if the sub is only capable of playing one spot. But will we see Young in CF? Holt in RF? The return of Rusney?
I certainly don't expect a day off for either one any time soon, but when JBJ inevitably cools off, or when either one gets the inevitable ding, what then? And what happens if the ding is something that might mean a few days off?
It is really for that reason that I would like to see the Sox pick up some AAAA level OF depth, ideally someone who can play a credible CF or RF. Who could fill that bill?
Skepticism on O'Sullivan seems justified to me, according to both numbers and the eye test. ERA of 6.43, and WHIP of 2.00 -- and while the 2016 sample size is tiny a.) that is what his career numbers say he is, and b.) if you saw the Oakland start you'll recall that he gave up hard-hit ball after hard-hit ball, but they mostly found Red Sox fielders.
Will be glad to be proven wrong, but hope is not a strategy.
You could do worse than Justin Maxwell, who's currently at Pawtucket, if it's just a 15-day DL kind of gap that needs to be plugged.
Or Hanley could move into the outfield. (I kid, I kid.)
I believe I've read that Young fills in CF. I suppose Betts could fill in with Young going to right. Holt can fill in both LF and RF. Shaw LF. So there are a couple of non-optimal possibilities. Too bad Castillo sucks because that changed a lot of things.
Another reason why the Red Sox need to trade for a SP: uncertainly over Rodriguez, who hasn't pitched all that well in his rehab assignments (a decline in velocity). At this point it would make sense to option Rodriguez out when he comes off the DL and avoid promoting him until he regains his stuff. So, in the short term, the Red Sox rotation would look like this:
Price
Wright
Porcello
Buchholz
Kelly
If the Red Sox acquire a SP via trade, they could send Kelly to AAA. Even though Buchholz has been terrible, optioning out Kelly makes the most sense since the Red Sox can bring him back in 10 days.
Price
Wright
Porcello
Buchholz
Kelly
If the Red Sox acquire a SP via trade, they could send Kelly to AAA. Even though Buchholz has been terrible, optioning out Kelly makes the most sense since the Red Sox can bring him back in 10 days.
I think this is the time to re-explore moving a partially subsidized Hanley.
Hanley has built up his value enough to be a passable but underwhelming overall 1B and it's a shot at shedding some salary if they decide to look into taking on a pitcher down the line. I'd rather have Travis at a fraction of the cost and look into upgrading LF - the easiest position to upgrade.
Holt would give Shaw an occasional breather at 3B where he can move to 1B, and spell other positions as needed. He really is just a super utility guy dressed as a so so LF. Shaw/Travis could platoon and Shaw plays some 3rd against righties as well.
One proposal is Kelly, Travis Lakins, and subsidized Hanley to Colorado for Carlos Gonzalez.
Hanley has built up his value enough to be a passable but underwhelming overall 1B and it's a shot at shedding some salary if they decide to look into taking on a pitcher down the line. I'd rather have Travis at a fraction of the cost and look into upgrading LF - the easiest position to upgrade.
Holt would give Shaw an occasional breather at 3B where he can move to 1B, and spell other positions as needed. He really is just a super utility guy dressed as a so so LF. Shaw/Travis could platoon and Shaw plays some 3rd against righties as well.
One proposal is Kelly, Travis Lakins, and subsidized Hanley to Colorado for Carlos Gonzalez.
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I'm pretty sure Colorado would laugh at this offer in MLB The Show even with the ability to force trades turned on.
It would be Shaw/Holt at 3B, Sam Travis/Shaw at 1B and Cargo at DH/LF until Beintendi is ready is what I was thinking.
Cargo could probably also play 1B next year. They don't really need a full time DH.
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You ought to check out Cargo's combined WAR the past three seasons before shooting it down. His value is in no longer playing RF. And his contract expires at the end of next year.
He's not getting a haul when being paid at value. And Colorado is the most (I am incapable of coming up with something to adequately describe my thoughts here, so I used a word which describes my own biases, insecurities, and poor intellect) run organization in baseball. The prospects should probably be upped, but they need young pitching, and Lakins is a solid prospect in A ball. They aren't contending any time soon.
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If they aren't contending any time soon they shouldn't be looking for a package with two major league players who are going to be well out of their prime before they are going to be competitive again. Hanley and Kelly make zero sense for them. You know this, or you wouldn't have pointed out that they are a poorly run team. Of course, if your proposal requires the other team making a bad decision, your proposal is complete garbage.
Also, maybe try making your point without drawing a parallel to the mentally disabled next time.
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I do not understand the allegations of needing a LF.
We have Brock Holt and Chris Young sharing time. This allows the club to give Holt, a utility player who has hit at or above league average the last two seasons and continues to do so into this season (despite a BABIP .060 below his MLB career average), regular ABs while also getting value out of a specialist in Young who provides a #4 OF able to play all three OF positions. They achieve that by using, effectively, one bench spot, giving them additional roster flexibility.
The club is also insulated from injury with Rusney Castillo in AAA and Blake Swihart picking up LF there himself. They have a fast riser in Benintendi in the minors with some insiders talking about him being up by August.
Not every position needs to have an all-star contender inked into the lineup every day. The team isn't having a hard time scoring runs. What they put on the field every day is, at current, working amazingly well.
Starting pitching is where we need help. Price/Porcello/Wright looks like a good 1-3, but Buchholz is looking horrible and the #5 spot is a big hole. They could trade for one starter while Buchholz/Rodriguez/Kelly fight it out for the last spot since both Rodriguez and Kelly have options left.
We have Brock Holt and Chris Young sharing time. This allows the club to give Holt, a utility player who has hit at or above league average the last two seasons and continues to do so into this season (despite a BABIP .060 below his MLB career average), regular ABs while also getting value out of a specialist in Young who provides a #4 OF able to play all three OF positions. They achieve that by using, effectively, one bench spot, giving them additional roster flexibility.
The club is also insulated from injury with Rusney Castillo in AAA and Blake Swihart picking up LF there himself. They have a fast riser in Benintendi in the minors with some insiders talking about him being up by August.
Not every position needs to have an all-star contender inked into the lineup every day. The team isn't having a hard time scoring runs. What they put on the field every day is, at current, working amazingly well.
Starting pitching is where we need help. Price/Porcello/Wright looks like a good 1-3, but Buchholz is looking horrible and the #5 spot is a big hole. They could trade for one starter while Buchholz/Rodriguez/Kelly fight it out for the last spot since both Rodriguez and Kelly have options left.
Hanley is (currently)
Avg: 10th
Hits: 6th
Stolen Bases: 4/4
and has given no signs of doing anything but improve.
He's OPS'ng 1.002 away from Fenway.
He's played a flawless 1B.
He supplies great protection to Ortiz. He scares opposing pitchers. He smashes the ball when it's squared.
He's either the 2017 1B or DH (nice choice to have).
Why on earth would anyone want to dump this guy? Particularly for a position that's not a need. I don't understand 90% of the posts in this thread.
Avg: 10th
Hits: 6th
Stolen Bases: 4/4
and has given no signs of doing anything but improve.
He's OPS'ng 1.002 away from Fenway.
He's played a flawless 1B.
He supplies great protection to Ortiz. He scares opposing pitchers. He smashes the ball when it's squared.
He's either the 2017 1B or DH (nice choice to have).
Why on earth would anyone want to dump this guy? Particularly for a position that's not a need. I don't understand 90% of the posts in this thread.
It's silly to give up premium assets that could potentially be used for a #2/3 SP, in order to avoid seeing a utility infielder.
Now, it'll be easier to find a LF than a #2/3 pitcher by the deadline, so I understand where you're coming from. But still, the Sox offense has been great. And as long as they're getting incredible production out of 2B, SS, and CF, they can withstand average-to-worse production out of LF.
Benintendi has just been promoted to Portland, how long before he's in the discussion to be "that guy"?
Last year, Michael Conforto was promoted to MLB from AA on July 24th after starting the season in A+. He was a year older than Benintendi and that was considered pretty aggressive, but if Benintendi spends the next month doing the same thing to AA pitching that he's done to every other level, I think he's in the conversation. This is pretty exciting.
It's interesting that now that the Red Sox are over the luxury tax threshold, and that threshold is almost certain to increase after the next CBA, almost anything seems possible, contract-wise. Fortunately, the Red Sox are in a good position. If they're competitive at the deadline and Benintendi looks good, they could hold off on a big Braun/Reddick trade and take a run at Bautista/Encarnacion in the offseason, potentially losing only a low draft pick. I guess it depends on their competitiveness, how Holt holds up and if Benintendi makes things interesting.
It's interesting that now that the Red Sox are over the luxury tax threshold, and that threshold is almost certain to increase after the next CBA, almost anything seems possible, contract-wise. Fortunately, the Red Sox are in a good position. If they're competitive at the deadline and Benintendi looks good, they could hold off on a big Braun/Reddick trade and take a run at Bautista/Encarnacion in the offseason, potentially losing only a low draft pick. I guess it depends on their competitiveness, how Holt holds up and if Benintendi makes things interesting.
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if the Sox are in GFIN mode (given Papi's situation, the salary cap flexibility they might have next year and the strong start) then its clear that that DD primary acquisition target would be a guy who start in a playoff series. whether that is #1, #2 or #3.
Tradeable assets: Kelly, Buchholz, Owens, Castillo, Moncada, Benintendi, Devers, Johnson, Espinoza, Travis, etc etc
Targets: S Gray, R Hill, Cleveland pitchers (Kluber, Salazar, Carrasco), Teheren, Tigers pitchers?, Jose Fernandez (lol)........there isn't much
Tradeable assets: Kelly, Buchholz, Owens, Castillo, Moncada, Benintendi, Devers, Johnson, Espinoza, Travis, etc etc
Targets: S Gray, R Hill, Cleveland pitchers (Kluber, Salazar, Carrasco), Teheren, Tigers pitchers?, Jose Fernandez (lol)........there isn't much
I think we've reached a GFIN event horizon, and not just because of Papi. What do you say to this?
Swihart, Benintendi, Moncada, Devers(, Edro) for
José Fernández, Giancarlo Stanton, Carter Capps
Benintendi may have reached peak value, and Stanton will patch over the hole in left field. Here is his spray chart. He's terrifying. Fernández is never justly credited for being one of the most fantastic, entertaining players. Assign a task force to review his medicals beforehand. Carter Capps last season was the best, most terrifying offense-neutralizing force of nature since that guy who dickishly pitched overhand before it was legal. The farm system pans out in a huge way! Espinoza stays put, potentially a third ace opposite the cadre of young hitters. Nobody scores on the bullpen in 2017, ever.
I'm convinced that a big arm will play up in left field at Fenway. The Céspedes acquisition is positively alarming in any other light. I think it's a good thing to have out there, so checkbox Stanton. He plays great defense anyhow, basically everything Hanley wasn't. Benintendi hit one home run for Salem, and I don't believe it traveled 485+ feet. A 10% extra base hit rate is great and everything, but not mind-rending. He just hardly struck out. Moncada's a peach, but not necessarily a second baseman. Devers is far from the big leagues with no defense or baserunning. Swihart, the catcher who doesn't catch, hasn't really hit a whole lot, either. The Marlins would have every right to prefer Realmuto, the catcher who doesn't frame, but stranger things have gone down. Replace Edro with lower level guys if you can. Ha ha. You can't.
None of these are rentals: José and Capps are here four seasons, Giancarlo until 2020 when he, you know. They may immediately become our best players in each phase. The GM in Miami is also hitting coach or first baseman or something.... Loria triggers this sale and receives a Cuban prodigy among four other upside players. Critics coo and cow and the Red Sox make losing a thing of the past! Here is what that would speculatively look like.
Now that you've read that, read this. If you don't win it, pay Peyton Manning to tell David Ortiz to come back. Nail the 29th pick. More importantly: deny the Cubs a World Series all through their arbitration years.
Swihart, Benintendi, Moncada, Devers(, Edro) for
José Fernández, Giancarlo Stanton, Carter Capps
Benintendi may have reached peak value, and Stanton will patch over the hole in left field. Here is his spray chart. He's terrifying. Fernández is never justly credited for being one of the most fantastic, entertaining players. Assign a task force to review his medicals beforehand. Carter Capps last season was the best, most terrifying offense-neutralizing force of nature since that guy who dickishly pitched overhand before it was legal. The farm system pans out in a huge way! Espinoza stays put, potentially a third ace opposite the cadre of young hitters. Nobody scores on the bullpen in 2017, ever.
I'm convinced that a big arm will play up in left field at Fenway. The Céspedes acquisition is positively alarming in any other light. I think it's a good thing to have out there, so checkbox Stanton. He plays great defense anyhow, basically everything Hanley wasn't. Benintendi hit one home run for Salem, and I don't believe it traveled 485+ feet. A 10% extra base hit rate is great and everything, but not mind-rending. He just hardly struck out. Moncada's a peach, but not necessarily a second baseman. Devers is far from the big leagues with no defense or baserunning. Swihart, the catcher who doesn't catch, hasn't really hit a whole lot, either. The Marlins would have every right to prefer Realmuto, the catcher who doesn't frame, but stranger things have gone down. Replace Edro with lower level guys if you can. Ha ha. You can't.
None of these are rentals: José and Capps are here four seasons, Giancarlo until 2020 when he, you know. They may immediately become our best players in each phase. The GM in Miami is also hitting coach or first baseman or something.... Loria triggers this sale and receives a Cuban prodigy among four other upside players. Critics coo and cow and the Red Sox make losing a thing of the past! Here is what that would speculatively look like.
Mookie Betts
Xander Bogaerts
David Ortiz
Giancarlo Stanton
Hanley Ramírez
Dustin Pedroia
Jackie Bradley, Jr.
Travis Shaw
Christian Vá—just kidding it's Hanigan
Brock Holt
Chris Young
Pawtucket shuttle
catcher
David Price
José Fernández
Steven Wright
Rick Porcello
some options, Espinoza next summer?
Craig Kimbrel
Carter Capps
Koji Uehara
Carson Smith
Junichi Tazawa
I'm shivering
left-hander
... wiiith little depth.
Xander Bogaerts
David Ortiz
Giancarlo Stanton
Hanley Ramírez
Dustin Pedroia
Jackie Bradley, Jr.
Travis Shaw
Christian Vá—just kidding it's Hanigan
Brock Holt
Chris Young
Pawtucket shuttle
catcher
David Price
José Fernández
Steven Wright
Rick Porcello
some options, Espinoza next summer?
Craig Kimbrel
Carter Capps
Koji Uehara
Carson Smith
Junichi Tazawa
I'm shivering
left-hander
... wiiith little depth.
Now that you've read that, read this. If you don't win it, pay Peyton Manning to tell David Ortiz to come back. Nail the 29th pick. More importantly: deny the Cubs a World Series all through their arbitration years.
While that is quite a package of prospects from the Sox I doubt it's near enough to get the Marlins to bite on Fernandez AND Stanton.
Agreed. If Marlins were to trade Stanton/Fernandez in the same package, they would insist on at least 1 of Betts/Bogaerts plus 3-4 elite prospects going the other way.
I think it is clear that we need pitching stability over everything else. I'd love to acquire a #5 guy who can eat innings and provide support at a low-to-moderate cost. Maybe not James Shields, but someone like him? And as much as I am open to splurging on a #2, I'd like to see how Porcello and Wright settle down first. Let's see where we are at the deadline.
As for the offense? I'm thinking a guy like Encarnacion is a practical replacement for Ortiz. Or, we slot Sandoval at DH next year and hope he provides a .750-800 OPS. We still have the contract on the books, after all. Its underwhelming for the DH spot, sure, but I like the energy and enthusiasm I'm seeing from Hanley. I'd rather not tinker with anything if he's found his groove, hence choosing to keep him entrenched at 1B over Sandoval.
As for the offense? I'm thinking a guy like Encarnacion is a practical replacement for Ortiz. Or, we slot Sandoval at DH next year and hope he provides a .750-800 OPS. We still have the contract on the books, after all. Its underwhelming for the DH spot, sure, but I like the energy and enthusiasm I'm seeing from Hanley. I'd rather not tinker with anything if he's found his groove, hence choosing to keep him entrenched at 1B over Sandoval.
What is the fascination with getting a #5 innings eater?
The Sox have more than enough pitchers able to provide in-season mediocrity already. What they may or may not have, is enough playoff-caliber starters to be competitive with other teams' playoff-caliber rotations, come October.
But just because it's tougher to find a Strasburg on the trade market than a Shields, doesn't mean the Sox should get the latter just to do something.
The Sox have more than enough pitchers able to provide in-season mediocrity already. What they may or may not have, is enough playoff-caliber starters to be competitive with other teams' playoff-caliber rotations, come October.
But just because it's tougher to find a Strasburg on the trade market than a Shields, doesn't mean the Sox should get the latter just to do something.
Miami is above .500. There are now two wildcards. Fivethirtyeight gives them a 29% chance to make the playoffs in some capacity.
Why are they trading us Fernandez and Stanton?
Why are they trading us Fernandez and Stanton?
Well, you're in luck! Joe Kelly last year had near identical K/9, BB/9, GB%, HR/FB rate and FIP numbers as James Shields has had this season.
Have to agree. Need to add a guy who can be a credible starter along the lines of the ALCS Lackey vs. Verlander matchup in 2013.
This is way too early. To be in a general GFIN state, the team has to have a lot of prime contracts expiring, and we don't:
To be in a one season "GFIN mode," they have to have a legitimate shot at going deep into the post season. Right now it seems like they could, but there's a way to go until the trading deadline. Then, the Sox have to have a clear area that needs upgrading, for which they'd be willing to trade future value for current short term value. So, if Hanley went down for the season in June, a GFIN move would be to take on an otherwise undesirable 1B contract (short or long term), for a cost they wouldn't otherwise pay for it. And we're nowhere near that point yet. They're going to wait to see what happens with Price and Buchholz, plus the other question marks.
I agree with Romine. That's why I think the Sox will look to trade from surplus to get a pitching asset they can have under control for a couple years. They match up with Cleveland very well, who needs OFers
Are you implying that we have a surplus of outfielders? This thread wants a word with you.
I chose the "Nothing" option in that poll, and even I don't think we have an OF surplus. We don't really have a surplus of anything at the moment, except maybe question-mark starting pitchers.
With Pablo/Castillo/Kelly/E-Rod going down in various ways, we're pretty much into our deep depth in terms of Shaw and Holt and Wright. It's helping that Young is as advertised, and Rutledge is playing above his head. As we saw when Carson Smith was injured, the bullpen isn't very deep in terms of AAA guys. Also, while Wright's been outstanding, everyone behind him on the depth chart has been less than stellar.
Betts/Bogaerts become the most valuable entity in the deal by a far cry. We should demand Stanton and Fernández for either. If there's a sale, I just wanna get there early.
Losers of 91 games last year, their run differential is that of a .500 team. And World Series championships haven't kept them from pawning off veterans. You sense the bell tolling on Fernández –– maybe you lure Stanton's contract as well in the mythical honeypot offer. Dee Gordon sits out for these playoffs. The fish clear money to maybe cast a line in 2018. Stanton's prime isn't wasted in a garish neon cavern. And you remember when we traded Manny?
Yeah. Yep. Lots of players debut as teenagers, most of them become standouts. For this reason, it's his stated career goal:
So fuck it, I do the same in my posts.Anderson Espinoza said:
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Alex Guererro is coming off the DL for the Dodgers and could be a good fit as the Dodgers dont seem to have much use for him. Dodgers would have to eat some salary and I wouldn't give up all that much for him, but if something happened to Shaw, Hanley, Holt or Young he could step in at 3B or LF and provide some power. Has reverse splits so isn't limited to being a LHP'er masher
Why on earth would we want to do that? If the Cubs are in the World Series against anyone but the Sox, I'm rooting for them and I'd be very surprised if the majority of folks here aren't with me on that.
So you think that merely promoting him is what will make him a standout?
Most guys who debut as teenagers are standouts because they are exceptional players who dominate the minors. It's not that their teams say "get a head start in the majors and you're going to have an awesome career." Cause/effect, etc. Espinoza might show that he belongs in Boston next year, but it's a longshot, given the things he is struggling with in Low A right now. (I realize some prospect humper will come in here an gush about his K rate but he has had a few starts where he has lost command, and even with the Ks he is giving up a decent amount of hard contact. He's having a fine developmental season but not something that screams he needs to make his MLB debut within a year)
I took it to mean that we'd be seeing and defeating the Cubs in World Series every year between now and 2020 or so. Which would be super! But even then I might want them to get one; those guys deserve it.