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How much will Pedroia contribute in 2019?

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Wake49, Nov 22, 2018.

  1. Wake49

    Wake49 Member SoSH Member

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    Pedroia might return, but can we ever count on him to be much of a contribution? I hope I’m wrong but I don’t think he will be.
     
  2. uk_sox_fan

    uk_sox_fan Member SoSH Member

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    I think this whole 'Pedroia is an extreme long shot to contribute anything' doom and gloom is over the top. Yes, he had major surgery and a setback when he tried to return, but this sort of thing happens. He's 35 years old and has always kept himself in amazing shape.
     
  3. shaggydog2000

    shaggydog2000 Member SoSH Member

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    He's 35, has played only one full season out of the last 5, and missed all but 3 games last year after a serious knee injury which was fixed with a surgery with no known track record in baseball, right? I think it's fair to question if he will play next year, or if he ever will again. I'm not putting that probability at 100%, but it's a major concern for the team, I'm sure. And you'd have to go into next season with a plan for his replacement if he can't go.
     
  4. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    18,011
    Which not only puts his availability in question, but also his effectiveness even if he can play. 35 is old for a second baseman. In the post-integration era (past 71 years), only eight 2Bs have played at least 120 games with an OPS+ over 100 at age 35: Eddie Stanky, Joe Morgan, Frank White, Lou Whitaker, Craig Biggio, Jeff Kent, Chase Utley, Ben Zobrist. It's a list Pedroia belongs on, talent-wise, but he would be the first guy to make the list after a lost year at 34. Nearly everybody on the list was coming off a strong, full age 34 season. Only Stanky and Utley had had seasons with fewer than 100 games played in any of the preceding three years.

    The older a player gets, the harder it is to come back strong from a major career interruption. I'm not saying Pedroia can't possibly do it (EDIT: in fact, if anybody can, he can). Just taking the measure of the hill he's trying to climb.

    (Should this discussion be peeled off? A discussion of Pedroia in 2019 seems worth its own thread.)
     
    #4 Savin Hillbilly, Nov 25, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2018
  5. Mike F

    Mike F Mayor of Fort Myers Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    My fear with Pedey is that his 100% all the time style will exacerbate any physical weaknesses in his body. He's a f***** gamer and can't play any other way. I'm sorry to say that Dustin Pedroia will be another example of an overpay for the back end of a long contract.
     
  6. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    We really underpaid for the front end, though. The contract has pretty nearly paid for itself in production by now; if Pedroia hangs around for three more years as a marginal player, it's still a pretty good deal. It's only an issue to the degree that it affects the luxury tax calculation.
     
  7. Sprowl

    Sprowl Emile de Becque Dope

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    Split off from the Colten Brewer thread.
     
  8. shaggydog2000

    shaggydog2000 Member SoSH Member

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    I think at this point the biggest loss is the opportunity cost. There is a decent chance Pedroia is on and off the disabled list and playing poorly in between stints for the next year or two. If he is just injured and out (or retired) the Sox can move on and roll the dice on a starter quality player, but for now they have to act like he's their starter. And there is still some chance he is a decent starter at 2B, there were only 7 3 War players at the position last year (as opposed to 12-13 at most other positions), so the bar is lower there, and his defense still seemed solid when he's been able to play the last few years. So who knows?
     
  9. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    Wrong thread
     
  10. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    With Holt, Nunez, and Lin under contract/team control, there isn't that much to worry about in terms of 2B for 2019. I think they can approach the upcoming season they way they handled 2018 as far as Pedroia is concerned...take what he can give and fill in the gaps internally.

    2020 is where they really need to worry if Pedroia is unable to play full time (call it available at least 65-75% of the time). That's when they have to hope Chavis proves to be a competent 2B or they may have to double commit FA salary to the spot.
     
  11. Danny_Darwin

    Danny_Darwin Member SoSH Member

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    Pedroia's got an unusual deal in that it actually gets cheaper as it goes, as though he and/or his agents and/or the 2013-era front office anticipated he might age poorly. He made $16m last year, but he'll only make $13m in 2020 and $12m in 2021.
     
  12. shaggydog2000

    shaggydog2000 Member SoSH Member

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    I think Nunez and Holt are a good plan B. But 2B is not the best position for either of them, and Nunez in particular is not a good fielder there. Which is why they picked up Kinsler. And has Chavis played 2B at all? I thought he was playing 3B/1B?
     
  13. Spelunker

    Spelunker Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    They've had him start working out at 2B (and left) knowing that he's most likely blocked at 3rd.

    https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/red-soxs-michael-chavis-works-at-second-base/
     
  14. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Right. And that's why I suggested that they can follow the 2018 game plan for 2019. Right down to picking up a rental 2B (not Kinsler but guys like Gennett and Schoop are potential free agents to be) should Pedroia be unable to play regularly as it was this season.
     
  15. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    As soon as he went down after 3 games, I thought "Remy, 1984."
    I still do. I think it's less than 50/50 that he he's a regular mlb player again.
     
  16. koufax32

    koufax32 He'll cry if he wants to... SoSH Member

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    Which doesn’t matter for luxury tax purposes though, right?
     
  17. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    No it doesn’t.
     
  18. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    I don't think the two can be lumped together this way. As you say, Nunez is a poor defensive 2B, but Holt's always been fine there--nothing special, but he won't hurt you. By both advanced metrics he's been basically league average for his career. With league average defense you'd ideally like a little more offense than even good Holt provides, but if he's a stopgap there, he's a high-quality stopgap. The Sox should be fine going into 2019 with Pedroia as plan A, Holt as plan B, and some combination of Nunez, Lin and (if warranted) a midseason pickup a la Kinsler as plan C. I don't think it's worth giving up talent or LT space to improve on that--certainly not unless/until Pedroia moots plan A and frees up payroll by retiring, and it's hard to see that happening before ST at the earliest.
     
  19. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    Lin had an 810 OPS in ~300 PA in Pawtucket this year and a 740 OPS in 73 major league plate appearances, with stretches of getting rusty on Boston’s bench. He’s still only 24 years old.

    As “Plan C” goes, that’s a hellofagood one.
     
  20. shaggydog2000

    shaggydog2000 Member SoSH Member

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    We're on the same page here.
     
  21. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    He played last year in Boston, too. He's at 139 PA, .256/.348/.380 for his MLB career. 17bb/34k, so doesn't appear lost.

    Is Lin "Plan B" at SS if Bogaerts misses more than just a few games or is that Holt?
     
  22. rhswanzey

    rhswanzey Member SoSH Member

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    FWIW, I'm fine with Lin as the optionable guy who comes up. I think it's entirely up in the air what Pedroia is able to give going forward. This comment nailed it:

    If you accept this premise, that it's a lot more likely that we have Pedroia for the opener than it is that he stays off the DL all season, we're left with guys who will take a minor league contract.

    Tim Beckham and Ronald Torreyes are some of the infielders non-tendered so far tonight. Beckham's not going to take a minors + ST deal, but we might have a shot at Torreyes. He's more of a utility type, but he was really popular in the NYY clubhouse. His only real hitting skill is contact, but OTOH he's not terrible. High floor type and can fudge it at SS. More I look at it, someone's going to give him a guarantee. I mean, Alexi Amarista got two years guaranteed not that long ago. It only takes one Colorado. So, nevermind, back to my cave.
     
  23. JimD

    JimD Member SoSH Member

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    Torreyes is off the board - he was acquired by the Cubs for cash considerations.
     
  24. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    True, but then non-tendered per that thread
     
  25. PrometheusWakefield

    PrometheusWakefield Nasty, brutish, and short SoSH Member

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    It would be a much better plan if the team found a way to cut bait on Nunez and find a better version of him. Nunez does not really have the skills to serve an important role and we'd be better off giving his spot to someone else, even Lin.
     
  26. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    Nunez had a bad year, partly because he never seemed to get over his knee injury from the end of 2017. With another winter to rest and rehab the knee, perhaps he can return to his 2016-2017 level of play.

    More broadly, I don’t get the angst over 2nd base, even if Pedroia can’t return to form. Holt is a league average 2nd baseman offensively and defensively. Nunez can be a very good hitter. Lin is as ready to contribute as he can be. Chavis might break out.

    I wouldn’t spend anything on an upgrade, and even depth wise there’s not a whole lot of need for a AAAA player at this point.
     
  27. HangingW/ScottCooper

    HangingW/ScottCooper Member SoSH Member

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    Jonathan Schoop was non-tendered
     
  28. FinanceAdvice

    FinanceAdvice lurker

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    My apologies if this has been reported elsewhere but I'm in NY and I heard on a Yankees broadcast a few days ago that the Mariners want to move Cano AND willing to add Edwin Diaz. He's a stud 24 yo closer last year ERA of 1.96, war of 3.2 FIP of 3.13. Logical to consider?
     
  29. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    31,492
    nm
     
  30. absintheofmalaise

    absintheofmalaise too many flowers Dope SoSH Member

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    12,784
    Go to the off-season thread. This has been discussed for a couple of days in there. And no, it's not logical to consider for Boston.
     

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