How do you handicap the NFC?

[Ale Xander]

My thoughts are that I'd take the 4-6 seeds over the 1-3, based on experience and skill at QB if I were a betting man, which I'm not. These aren't your pushover WC teams and #4 division winner. Also experience advantage at HC.

Brees/Newton/Russ or Ryan over Goff/Keenum/Foles

 

[Marciano490]

Disagree. Minnesota and LA are the two scariest teams in the NFC right now, and it's not necessarily a ton to do with QB'ing.

 

[Oppo]

The complete teams: Min, LA
The puncher's chance teams: Car/Atl/NO
The QB-less: Phi

If Seattle somehow gets in, put them in group 2 due simply to RW.

 

[pokey_reese]

Yeah, I think Marciano hits it here. We certainly (and usually correctly) think of the NFL as a QB league, and that position has a lot to do with handicapping teams, but that's not the same as simply ranking QBs. Brees/Newton/Wilson is certainly a better trio than Goff/Keenum/Foles, but that doesn't mean that NO/CAR/SEA would beat LAR/MIN/PHI.

I don't think that there is a team in the NFC that I would take over the Rams right now, and I would have MIN right behind them. Also, it's not like Goff/Keenum have been poor and getting lucky, or have simply been 'game manager QBs, they've been legitimately good, and they just happen to be surrounded by complete, talented rosters. Seattle has been pretty inconsistent, as has CAR, though I would put NO just outside of that top tier in the NFC, because the defense has been better than expected and Brees is still an amazing weapon. Also keep in mind that NO is a dome team, but the Super Bowl will be in a dome, they could play the Rams in LA (so weather shouldn't be a huge factor) or the Vikings in a dome, etc., there is no NE/PIT/BAL winter game ahead for them in the playoffs.

Remember, Brady wasn't a top-5 QB by almost any metric back in the '01-'04 seasons, but those Pats teams were fierce.

 

[Marciano490]

I wonder if Philly couldn't succeed - especially given home field and the cold - as a power running team with a good defense. Their defense hasn't looked all-world lately, but was solid most of the season, and they have 2 RBs who should be able to pound the ball. Of course, when Oakland was loading the box last night, they couldn't run at all, but maybe asking much less of Foles and just hoping for time of possession, holding opponents under 14 points and some opportunistic defensive or special teams scores is their ticket?

 

[Dan Murfman]

It can get cold in Philadelphia and a good chance if NO wins first game in playoffs they’ll be headed there.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Foles really shook my confidence in Philly last night but I still have them in the top tier along with Minny, LA, and New Orleans. I'm not getting suckered into Carolina - I think Cam has a real egg of a performance coming, potentially against New Orleans in the Wild Card round. Seattle and Atlanta have the recent SB pedigree and the names at QB but both of these teams look heavily-flawed to me and I'm doubtful that either could knock off Minnesota on the road.

If I had to pick a team to win the NFC, my pick is Minnesota. They have a bye and a decent chance of hosting the NFCCG given how Philly looks with Foles. That defense is going to be an absolute handful for the NFC.

 

[j-man]

nfc fear factor odds

1 LA Rams they run a lot of pats stuff on off and have wade 53/47 pats
2 minn they are the 2015 denver broncos 55/45 pats

big drop off after 2

3 ATL/SEA 62/38 pats
4 CAR 65/35 pats
5 PHILLY 80/20 pats

6 NO 90/10 pats