How are you betting the championship weekend?

[ethangl]

I was just going by DSRS since DVOA is a black box (and Schatz sucks, but that's for another day I guess). As for the Giants, they played very well the last two games and in the playoffs but facing a defense that allowed 400 points is about as good as you're going to get in the playoffs - there generally aren't many bad defenses there that are playing bad.

Okay, I think SRS will tell you some pretty weird things. I think this is splitting hairs, and we won't find a metric that tells us that the 2009 Cardinals defense was anything worse than average, or that the 2016 Falcons defense was anything better than below average.

As for games that matter, what about the home losses to the Lions and Bears last year that cost them the division?

I didn't include those in "games that mattered", no.

I'm not a Pats fan and generally a staunch Rodgers defender. I'm just saying he's had some bad games too.

I'm not suggesting he hasn't had bad playoff games. I'm saying when he does have bad playoff games, they are against defenses that fit a pretty specific profile... and since this is a gambling thread, I see very little value in giving Rodgers points against a team that cannot overwhelm the Packer's OL. Historically that is a losing bet.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

Not a gambler but I think the Atlanta line is way too low. GB is seriously banged up across the board. The line is what it is because the public is backing Rodgers and "afraid" of him, but I think Atlanta is just too good and deep on offense. I see them running away from GB in this one and winning comfortably.

I think atl will manage a few stops..i dont see gbs D slowing down atl all that much. I love the Falcons tomorrow.

 

[luckiestman]

Took the home teams and the under

 

[tims4wins]

Not a gambler but I think the Atlanta line is way too low. GB is seriously banged up across the board. The line is what it is because the public is backing Rodgers and "afraid" of him, but I think Atlanta is just too good and deep on offense. I see them running away from GB in this one and winning comfortably.

Bump

 

[djbayko]

Picks:
NE (-4.5) Full game (got early line)
NE (-3) 1st Half
NE (-1/2) 1st Qtr
ATL (-4)
ATL/GB over 60
Not touching NE/PIT o/u but did include it in a teaser.

ATL over 3.5 TDs
NE/PIT over 3.5 FGs
Ryan or Rodgers to have most passing yards this weekend (-222)

$50 on ATL (+105) over PIT in the Super Bowl
and
$50 on GB (-105) over PIT in the Super Bowl
When the Pats win this weekend, I get my money back.

For fun, small bets on a couple Pats players for SB MVP including Butler at 150/1 and Blount at 50/1. Brady is only something like 1.6/1 so the value just isn't there.

Edit: Added prop bets.

NE (-4.5) Full game (got early line) - WIN
NE (-3) 1st Half - WIN
NE (-1/2) 1st Qtr - WIN
ATL (-4) - WIN
ATL/GB over 60 - WIN
Not touching NE/PIT o/u but did include it in a teaser.

ATL over 3.5 TDs - WIN
NE/PIT over 3.5 FGs - WIN
Ryan or Rodgers to have most passing yards this weekend (-222) - WIN (but Brady made it scary close)

$50 on ATL (+105) over PIT in the Super Bowl
and - VOID
$50 on GB (-105) over PIT in the Super Bowl - VOID
When the Pats win this weekend, I get my money back

Player props not posted here:
Edelman over 79 reciving yards - WIN
Bennett under 35.5 receiving yards - WIN
Hogan under 45.5 receiving yards - LOSS (and thank dog for that loss!)

So far tonight I've put subtantial bets on:

• NE (-3) vs. ATL
• NE (-1.5) vs. ATL - 1st Half
• NE ML (-150) vs. ATL
• NE/ATL under 58.5

Of course, it's difficult to separate my brain from my heart on NE bets, so buyer beware.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

In both cases of the over/unders, I think we can all agree that we need to get the guys who set the lines involved in cancer research. Holy Moley.