Hot Stove Rumors 2014, Part Deux

mabrowndog

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Abs asked us to let the other thread die.
 

 
 
With that said, Ye High and Mighty Exalted Ruler Lord Rosenthal reporteth as follows:
 
 
Sources: #Phillies, #RedSox, #Royals among teams considering free-agent RHP Ryan Madson. Hasn’t pitched since ’11 due to elbow issues.
 
Another all-upside, no-downside rehab project for an already solid bullpen with no real needs? Fine by me. He's still only 33. As long as they're not planning to pull a Hanrahan and anoint him closer, what's not to like?
 
They apparently scouted him last monthHe's also no longer a Boras client, moving to Damon Lapa and Scott Leventhal of All Bases Covered Management, so we'd be spared that sideshow.
 

MoGator71

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Rudy Pemberton said:
Interesting stat...,Madson has been paid $6M by the Reds and $3.25M by the Angels, yet never appeared in a game for either team.
I wonder what the record is for that. The first guy that comes to mind is El Duque in 2003 for Montreal, when he earned $4.1M and never pitched. Still less than Madson got from Cincinnati, even discounting how much cash went to Montreal from the Yankees via the White Sox to subsidize him.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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MoGator71 said:
I wonder what the record is for that. The first guy that comes to mind is El Duque in 2003 for Montreal, when he earned $4.1M and never pitched. Still less than Madson got from Cincinnati, even discounting how much cash went to Montreal from the Yankees via the White Sox to subsidize him.
 
CoughSchillingcough
 
$8 million in 2008 without throwing a pitch.
 

Mike F

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I suppose John Lackey's 2112 season qualifies.
 

smastroyin

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
 
CoughSchillingcough
 
$8 million in 2008 without throwing a pitch.
 
I'm not sure you get the point.  Plenty of pitchers miss years due to injury.  Mike Hampton got $29 million or so from the Braves for throwing no pitches in 2006 or 2007.  The question is what the record is for a guy to get paid by a team he never pitched for.
 

geoduck no quahog

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If I could make a practical suggestion:
 
If this thread is designated for rumors only, and the rumored party is worth discussing, why not start another thread just about him - otherwise the same thing's going to happen...player "x" will be identified...and followed by 25 posts about player "x" and his impact on player "y".
 
No one will be able to see if a new rumor is posted in this thread, versus an ongoing discussion about the last rumor.
 
So, a new thread called "Ryan Madson's Illegitimate Children" based on the legitimate posting of the Ryan Madson tweet in this thread.
 
Just a thought.
 

Nomars Last Twitch

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Here's an interesting rumor:
 
http://www.fenwaynation.com/2013/12/are-sox-planning-giancarlo-stanton-mega.html
 
Friday, December 20, 2013
Are Sox Planning Giancarlo Stanton Mega-Deal?
 
  Despite denials from both sides, rumors persist (and we stress they are still in the rumor stage) about a potential blockbuster trade between the Red Sox and Marlins. The current configuration being floated is for Boston to send third baseman Will Middlebrooks, center fielder Jackie Bradley, Jr. and dynamic starting pitching prospect Henry Owens to Miami in exchange for Giancarlo Stanton. It's an interesting proposition. The Red Sox could move Xander Bogaerts (one of their few 'untouchable' prospects) to third and put Stephen Drew back at shortstop (of course, his re-signing via Scott Boras would actually have to happen). Stanton would go to right and Shane Victorino could move to center. The real sacrifice would be losing Owens, who could emerge as a dominant Number 1 or Number 2 starter in the not-too-distant future. Baseball America lists Owens as the organization's number two overall prospect—just behind Bogaerts. Of course, with Stanton, Boston would get a 24-year old budding superstar—a guy who actually slugged .608 in 2012, with 27 HRs. In 2013, he 'slumped' to .480 slugging and 24 HRs. He has been injury-prone in his young career, but a healthy right-handed hitting Stanton would be a 'monster' (no pun intended) in the middle of the Red Sox lineup for years to come.
 

mabrowndog

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geoduck no quahog said:
If I could make a practical suggestion:
 
If this thread is designated for rumors only, and the rumored party is worth discussing, why not start another thread just about him - otherwise the same thing's going to happen...player "x" will be identified...and followed by 25 posts about player "x" and his impact on player "y".
 
No one will be able to see if a new rumor is posted in this thread, versus an ongoing discussion about the last rumor.
 
So, a new thread called "Ryan Madson's Illegitimate Children" based on the legitimate posting of the Ryan Madson tweet in this thread.
 
Just a thought.
 
I just started a separate News Only thread, so this one can be for discussion, debate, analysis and hissy fits. Though as always, hot topics are best suited for new threads of their own.
 
Problem solved.
 

circus catch

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I would need a better source than Fenway Nation before I would try to wrap my mind around that possible Stanton deal.
 
On a different note, my quote button doesn't seem to be working.  Anyone know how I can fix that?
 

mabrowndog

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circus catch said:
I would need a better source than Fenway Nation before I would try to wrap my mind around that possible Stanton deal.
 
Yeah, the fact that they're a blog and didn't link to ANY other source despite the rumor allegedly "persist"ing makes me leery.
 
However the package seems fairly reasonable from the Sox' position. I'm still not sure I'd do it if I'm Ben, and I doubt that haul would be sufficient for the Marlins.
 
FWIW, Stanton and MIA avoided arb with a $6.5M deal for 2014. If he produces as he has the past two seasons, he stands to make ~$10M+ next year and $14M+ in 2016 before hitting the FA market.
 

bosockboy

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Seems like the Sox might be the only team that has the farm system to acquire Stanton and the cash to extend him. This particular rumor is probably rubbish, but I'd be surprised if he wasn't in their sights.
 

jimbobim

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A possible number 1 number 2 lefty ace in Owens and a controllable above league average WMB and JBJ for Stanton would be an absolute win win for both sides if Stanton plays 140+ games consistently . His pull power with X would be two very scary bats to build around.  
 
I guess it comes down to how confident you are Owens becomes a 1 or 2. It certainly looks like he may be. 
 

JimD

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I would do WMB, JBJ and Owens for Stanton in a heartbeat. No way that's all it would take, though.
 

moondog80

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Nit picking, but Stanton might not be a RF in Boston. Is JBJ that essential that he couldn't be replaced by whoever else Miami wanted other than X? (And Nava, since the Sox wouldn't have room for him.)
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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moondog80 said:
Nit picking, but Stanton might not be a RF in Boston. Is JBJ that essential that he couldn't be replaced by whoever else Miami wanted other than X? (And Nava, since the Sox wouldn't have room for him.)
 
Even if this rumor has any truth behind it, which I would be shocked if it does, JBJ going would probably be essential as they would need a major league ready outfielder to replace Stanton in the field and there is no way they would consider Nava an adequate replacement for him.  JBJ is fully cost controlled.  Nava is one year away from arbitration.
 
If this deal is on the table, the Sox should jump at it.  If they could pull off Nava, Middlebrooks and Owens, they should turn around and then ask for Jose Fernandez in exchange for Doubront, Barnes and Bryce Brentz, as Mike Hill and Jeffrey Loria have both obviously gone insane.
 

syoo8

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JimD said:
I would do WMB, JBJ and Owens for Stanton in a heartbeat. No way that's all it would take, though.
 
Considering that for one year of Adrian Gonzalez we had to give up our overall #1 prospect (Casey Kelly), #3 prospect (Anthony Rizzo) and two other prospects, I would think it would cost a little more for three years of Stanton.  They'd want at least one of Bogaerts, Ranaudo, Swihart as well.
 

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I'd imagine the Sox would move any 3 outside of X. The Marlins have Yelich coming so I'm not sure Bradley is a huge must, but I'd certainly include him if necessary.
 

moondog80

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
Even if this rumor has any truth behind it, which I would be shocked if it does, JBJ going would probably be essential as they would need a major league ready outfielder to replace Stanton in the field and there is no way they would consider Nava an adequate replacement for him.  JBJ is fully cost controlled.  Nava is one year away from arbitration.
 
If this deal is on the table, the Sox should jump at it.  If they could pull off Nava, Middlebrooks and Owens, they should turn around and then ask for Jose Fernandez in exchange for Doubront, Barnes and Bryce Brentz, as Mike Hill and Jeffrey Loria have both obviously gone insane.
 
 
What I suggested was replacing JBJ with Nava *and* any prospect the Marlins wanted.  So Nava & one of Cecchini/Webster/Barnes (or whoever), along with WMB and Owens.  I think that gets the ball rolling.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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moondog80 said:
 
 
What I suggested was replacing JBJ with Nava *and* any prospect the Marlins wanted.  So Nava & one of Cecchini/Webster/Barnes (or whoever), along with WMB and Owens.  I think that gets the ball rolling.
 
If the rumored package is something they would really consider, then yeah, it should.  I'm still not convinced the Marlins would have any real interest in :Middlebrooks, JBJ and Owens, though.  Of course, I also thought the 2013 Red Sox were going to miss the playoffs by 4 games, so what do I know? :)
 

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I'd be nervous about including one of their catching prospects. I love the fact that they have two, since they pretty much need one of the two of them to step up and become a start sometime in the next two years. I'd imagine a package of JBJ, Cecchini, and Owens ought to be pretty close to getting it done, and while giving up those players would hurt, it wouldn't create a gaping hole anywhere in the pipeline. If it's not enough the Sox could throw in RDLR or Barnes or someone like that.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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A package of Bradley, Cecchini, Owens and Barnes would be the numbers 2, 3, 4 and 6 prospects in the system according to soxprospects.com, 2, 3, 4 and 9 according to BA and 2, 3, 4 and 5 according to BP.  That certainly seems like the kind of package that should get their attention, especially when you consider that all of those prospects are fully cost controlled and would all be expected to hit the majors for a club like Miami in the next 12-14 months.
 
I think Middlebrooks, between the warts he has displayed as a hitter and the fact that he's burned up a year of his cost control is probably less interesting to the Marlins, and being able to claim they got the 2-5 prospects in what is arguably the 3rd, 4th or 5th best farm system in the game might be enough for them to sell it to their 11 fans.  Of course, BA has Middlebrooks ranked behind Owens and Bradley, but ahead of Barnes and Cecchini (as in one slot ahead of Cecchini) in the top 15 25 and under list.  BP has only Bradley ahead of Middlebrooks in a similar list.  So perhaps a Middlebrooks package would be more attractive to them.
 
Bradley, Middlebrooks, Owens and Barnes?  I'd rather offer De La Rosa, personally, but am assuming the Marlins would be more interested in Barnes.  It still doesn't seem right to me, but that's probably about as strong a package as they are likely to be offered when you take into account their desire for cost controlled players.
 

circus catch

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I think there would be interest in Middlebrooks, as they only have McGeehee at 3rd, and Jones is at 1st and can't lefties, so there would be room for him.  Cecchini is probably less of a need because they have Moran. Likewise, I doubt they want Bradley because they have Ozuna and Marisnick.  What's interesting is if they deal Stanton they essentially need another corner outfielder.  There's not another one close to the majors, and I don't know if Brentz is someone they would believe in.  Shortstops they could also use, so maybe Marrero? They may want a catcher too.
 
And just to put the brakes on this a little, out of all of our young pitchers I would rather give two of any of them before I gave up Owens.  A big lefty with power and a successful track record is nothing to give away just like any prospect, especially seeing the MFY are going to be heavily left-handed until they get their next ballpark, and I'm squeamish on giving Lester 20+ million a year. 
 
Finally, Stanton has missed significant time the last two years. So given all of that, here's my offer:
 
Middlebrooks and any three kids not named Bogaerts, Owens, or Swihart for Stanton
 
And if that doesn't get it done I walk away.  I see Owens and Swihart as having a good chance to be damn good ballplayers, and I want to keep them.  I don't think that's being overprotective.  Its just that if you build a great farm system, I think you want to keep the best of those at home.  If we don't get Stanton, there will be other deals. There always are. 
 

TOleary25

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The Stanton article is from December 20th so it's not relatively new and, as others have mentioned, not a well known source. The suggested rumor of Owens/JBJ/WMB for Stanton is an easy yes for me which is why I think it may be unrealistic to expect Miami to accept it. Add in another top prospect to the trade (Cecchini/Barnes/Swihart) and it becomes somewhat difficult to say yes from the Sox perspective IMO. Ultimately I think that's what it will take to convince Miami to trade Giancarlo.
 
There's no need for Miami to trade Stanton now unless they have a real concern about his durability. Miami can easily find a similar deal next year to the offer proposed in the article, especially if Stanton is coming off a good season.
 

pdub

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I also find it a bit perplexing that Miami would consider JBJ, Owens, and WMB sufficient in exchange for Stanton. WMB has low value at the moment, overall that package seems underwhelming. Would I do it? IN A HEARTBEAT. I've expressed concern over our offense in the past and I think Stanton would be a perfect remedy. Still, if I'm Miami I'd keep him this season and see what happens. Chances are he'll have a great year, then his stock will soar and they'll be able to demand a very premium package for him.
 
On the other hand, which teams realistically have the prospects and/or cost-controlled MLB'ers to acquire him? Unless I'm missing the obvious I think we may have the best chance at him. Also, I'm going to assume extending him won't be an issue given that the team should have tons of flexibility financially. I think they're just waiting for the right move to open the cheque book - and this would definitely be the right move.
 
I'm all for it, this team should start thinking about where its going to generate power after Ortiz retires.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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This non-rumor made me think back to the Miguel Cabrera trade. The Tigers traded top prospects Maybin and Miller which ended up a HUGE bargain, whereas the equivalent Sox package would have been headlined by Ellsbury and Lester, which would have been very painful but a lot more even. Tough for us to guess who is overvalued and who is the real deal.
 

Paradigm

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Among teams with immediate World Series aspirations, the Red Sox have the best farm system in baseball. The Pirates are #1 in this year's Baseball America rankings, but don't have the same money to spend as the Red Sox do. The Cubs and Twins have great farms, but are in the business of accumulating prospects, not trading them for a few years of a slugger like Stanton. 
 
I truly believe that the Red Sox could beat any offer if Stanton went on the market, considering who they'd be competing against. 
 

Rasputin

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Paradigm said:
Among teams with immediate World Series aspirations, the Red Sox have the best farm system in baseball. The Pirates are #1 in this year's Baseball America rankings, but don't have the same money to spend as the Red Sox do. The Cubs and Twins have great farms, but are in the business of accumulating prospects, not trading them for a few years of a slugger like Stanton. 
 
I truly believe that the Red Sox could beat any offer if Stanton went on the market, considering who they'd be competing against. 
 
I think this is probably true.
 
I also think the Sox are probably in better shape if they don't make such a trade.
 

Niastri

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If the Red Sox don't trade for Stanton, can the Sox conceivably get a right handed slugger of similar ability at any point in the next 5 years? 
 
Paul Goldschmidt just signed a six year contract.
 
Miguel Cabrera has two years left and is talking extension. 
 
Chris Carter is going to be an Astro for at least 4 more years.
 
Adam Jones is signed with the Orioles through the 2018 season.
 
Encarnacion, Trumbo, Soriano, Longoria, Beltre, and Bautista round out the top 10 in righthanded homers from last year.  Obvious problems with each come into question. 
 
We pretty much need to swindle a team for a young righthanded power hitter, or make a mega deal for somebody.  Or....
 
They can develop somebody.
 
I think Middlebrooks is our best chance to develop somebody as powerful (not as good overall, but as powerful) as Stanton.  As added value, by keeping Middlebrooks and hoping he takes a jump forward in production, we get the added benefit of keeping Owens, JBJ and whoever else we would have to send to the Marlins for Stanton.
 
I hope this trade doesn't get done, but I am a Middlebrooks fanboy, I guess.
 

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I'd be happy with Montana Fan's suggest deal if we swapped Middlebrooks for Swihart - Owens, Middlebrooks, and Webster.  Of course, this means we'd likely also have to send Jenny Dell to Miami (handcuffed to WMB).  I could still live with it.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Niastri said:
If the Red Sox don't trade for Stanton, can the Sox conceivably get a right handed slugger of similar ability at any point in the next 5 years? 
 
Paul Goldschmidt just signed a six year contract.
 
Miguel Cabrera has two years left and is talking extension. 
 
Chris Carter is going to be an Astro for at least 4 more years.
 
Adam Jones is signed with the Orioles through the 2018 season.
 
Encarnacion, Trumbo, Soriano, Longoria, Beltre, and Bautista round out the top 10 in righthanded homers from last year.  Obvious problems with each come into question. 
 
We pretty much need to swindle a team for a young righthanded power hitter, or make a mega deal for somebody.  Or....
 
They can develop somebody.
 
I think Middlebrooks is our best chance to develop somebody as powerful (not as good overall, but as powerful) as Stanton.  As added value, by keeping Middlebrooks and hoping he takes a jump forward in production, we get the added benefit of keeping Owens, JBJ and whoever else we would have to send to the Marlins for Stanton.
 
I hope this trade doesn't get done, but I am a Middlebrooks fanboy, I guess.
Well there probably isn't much credibility to this report but Stanton would be that franchise bat to take the torch for when Papi retires. The two bats in the Sox system that could become that franchise bat are Xander and Devers. Devers is a good 5 years away. Stanton will be traded eventually the question is will it be a year before free agency or will it be sooner?
 

Rasputin

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Niastri said:
If the Red Sox don't trade for Stanton, can the Sox conceivably get a right handed slugger of similar ability at any point in the next 5 years? 
 
This is always the wrong question to ask.
 
The question to ask is, "Can the Red Sox put together a team with a reasonable chance of winning the division every single year for the next several years?"
 
I say winning the division because any team that wins its division has a decent chance to win the World Series, and the longevity part shouldn't be obscured by putting the World Series in there. 
 

SoxLegacy

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I am with Ras on this. While the Sox could deal from a position of strength, I too believe they are in better shape not making a deal for Stanton. I see a number of posters including JBJ in the deal....who plays CF for the Sox? Same goes for Swihart....the Sox didn't work a deal with Salty because they apparently plan on going with their apparently very good prospect at C in the future. Including Bradley or Swihart in a trade doesn't add up to building the next great Red Sox team.
 

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In a vacuum, I'd much rather keep all of the lottery tickets and spend the money on FAs to fill needs down the road instead of giving up a few lottery tickets and then handing Stanton a 9 figure contract.  Three top prospects (at a minimum) plus $100m+ for one player doesn't seem like the most efficient use of resources.
 

Niastri

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Rasputin said:
 
This is always the wrong question to ask.
 
The question to ask is, "Can the Red Sox put together a team with a reasonable chance of winning the division every single year for the next several years?"
 
I say winning the division because any team that wins its division has a decent chance to win the World Series, and the longevity part shouldn't be obscured by putting the World Series in there. 
You are correct of course with your counter question. 
 
My more important sub question is:
 
Does trading Middlebrooks for Stanton help the Sox straight up?  Well, of course it does!
 
But does it help more than Middlebrooks and Owens alone?  Plus other prospects that are huge quality chips?  I would guess not...
 
I am a Middlebrooks fan boy, and have a lot (for a guy with less than a hundred) of posts stating such.
 
I think even an uninjured Stanton has a lot of Red Sox players like Victorinio and Nava to beat out. 
 
Thus, in pure value to the 2014 Sox Stanton has to beat out Middlebrooks and JLB in his ability to help out the Sox this year.  Then he has to beat out Owens and (random Sox Prospect) to come out even for the Red Sox in the long term.  I think this is a trade that won't happen unless the Sox think both WMB and JLB are way overblown prospects.  Nothing they have has indicated either of them fits the situation.
 
If they have to sign Drew, they lose a draft pick which has value as well.  MLB teams in general may be valuating such picks more than the Sox this year.  But Middlebrooks and a draft pick (for Drew) and anything else makes Stanton a losing proposition, especially when you consider he can't actually play right in Fenway.
 
The Sox will ensure nobody will get Stanton for cheap, and so will the Marlins. 
 
 
Edit:added though about Marlins value
 

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Setting aside the lack of credible sources, if that trade were on the table for the Sox and they think they can extend Stanton, they do it in a Tim Raines minute.  Prospectophilia is at an all time high around here  - while Owens looks extremely promising, he is still a prospect.  Ditto JBJ at this point.  
 
The only MLB player mentioned in this made-up deal is Middlebrooks and while it would not be a surprise for him to develop into a very good player, this past season and the Sox management of him during the playoff run definitely raises doubts.
 
If this were the price for the Sox, they do it because Stanton is exactly what they need - a potential franchise bat - and it costs them what they have a wealth of at the moment - prospects.  Prospects don't keep the sell-out streak going and give NESN the ability to reach across the country to "Red Sox Nation".  Winning now does, and Stanton gives the Sox a better chance to win now than any of the three players mentioned.
 

jimbobim

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The Red Sox can basically be involved in any trade or big money target for the foreseeable future because of their prospects and financial flexibility. It will be interesting to see how Cherington manages this roster. 
 
Lee,Kemp, Stanton,(Heyward if the Braves stupidly don't try and sign him) all could theoretically be available at some point in the next year and a half. 
 

Rovin Romine

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A thousand times "no" on Stanton.  We just won a WS with depth and diversity and the solution is to change out a bunch of that depth for an oft injured "big name"?
 
1) Control.  Stanton is arb eligible in 2014.   He's a FA in 2017.   It's hard to say what he wants to do going forward, but he's making millions whether or not he makes it out of spring training this year.  Right now he's rumored to have rejected the idea of a long term extension from the Marlins.  While this may be partially due to the Marlin's suckitude, Stanton may also want to go the Papelbon route. (Basically, he may or may not have incentive to sign a long term deal with the Sox.)  Worst case, you have him for 3 years, during which you'd pay for production via arb.  So it's not like he's guaranteed to be a bargain.  The only real plus is that he's not a "trade and extend" player like Gonzales was.  
 
2) Durability.  Stanton played 123 games in 2012 and 116 games in 2013.  He has had hamstring, shoulder, and knee injuries (surgery required to remove stuff from his knee).  And he's only 23 years old.  These aren't freak injuries (ellsburyesque) - they are injuries which may indicate chronic problems going forward.  http://www.fishstripes.com/2013/4/30/4285344/giancarlo-stanton-injury-hamstring-miami-marlins-analysis
 
3) Cost of acquisition.  While Owens, JBJ and WMB are prospects, they're all under control and they're all somewhat projectable and they all have high ceilings at difficult to fill positions.  If one of the three pan out, their value is likely to greatly offset Stanton's, given that they'll cost less and be contributing in a premium position, and while 3b isn't quite SP or CF, WMB's greatest skill is also slugging.   
Beyond the prospect cost of acquiring Stanton himself, we'd then need to find a 3b (or SS should we slide X to 3b).  We'd also need to find a backup CF - if Victorino gets injured, which he will be, we need someone in CF.     
So we'd likely be at: prospects for Stanton, $14 for a SS (drew), prospects for a backup CF, $6 for Stanton's salary? 
 
4) Production.  Stanton is a good fielder at this point in his career.  When he's in the field.   With the bat, Stanton's best skill is power.  His career slugging percentage is .525, but last year he "only" slugged .480.  While that's good, his 2013 batting numbers are most similar to to Mike Napoli's 2013 (to chose an example close to home).  (Napoli was worth 4.1 WAR, but Stanton (due to playing time) was worth only 2.4 WAR.)  If Stanton slugs roughly Mike Napoli levels going forward, we'd  get good production out of RF, but not superstar/franchise player level.  Which people seem to assume is a lock for Stanton.  
 
5) Where to play him?  Stanton could probably play in Fenway's RF without trouble.  Clearly that's where his value would be the greatest.  But if there are injury concerns (hamstrings/knees/shoulder, etc.) you could likely put him at 1B (he played there in the minors).  Except we just locked up a 1B.  And we have a DH.  
 
The only way this makes sense is for:
Stanton to be guaranteed to be healthy
and play RF in Fenway
and regain his prime power stroke
and want to sign a quasi friendly extension with the Sox
and for Owens/WMB/JBJ to be revealed as flawed players
and for our SS/3B signing to work
and for Victorino to remain very healthy and take over CF without problem (or we trade for a good CF prospect).
 

pdub

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If we acquire Stanton now or soon then I think he would be a bargain relatively speaking. I'm basing this on the fact that Cano just completed his $240M deal and that seems to be the current benchmark. If we wait until Trout hits FA to acquire Stanton then he'll suddenly become more of a $300M player. I get what you're saying, Rovin, and its not like I disagree with you. Stanton will cost either way, he's a very good player who has shown flashes of elite skill. Says a lot about a player when his floor is Mike Napoli of last year. I wouldn't put too much stock in his disinterest in signing an extension with the Marlins, since he's complained before about the team's approach to its own players. Also, signing a contract with Florida these days doesn't keep you safe from being traded. 
 
As for his injuries? Hm, yeah, not much I can use to rebut this point. He's had two years of straight decline in games played. Does this mean he's injury prone? Are his injuries of a more chronic condition? Sadly I have no idea beyond what I've read on the usual websites. I guess this part will be up to the Red Sox medical team to perform its due diligence. 
 
As for the package - well, it depends on what we think WMB and JBJ are. WMB has his skeptics but I'm still on board to give him a shot given his young age. Though his lack of taking a walk is not comforting, he'll need to post a really high BABIP to sustain his average. JBJ has faired poorly in his time but, again, age is a factor. Besides, after Pedroia's transformation I'm content to give the kids a shot. Its not like there is an abundance of talent to sign, anyway. But, if you tell me today that a Stanton package will "only" require WMB, JBJ, and Owens? I do that. 
 

Rovin Romine

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pdub said:
If we acquire Stanton now or soon then I think he would be a bargain relatively speaking. I'm basing this on the fact that Cano just completed his $240M deal and that seems to be the current benchmark. If we wait until Trout hits FA to acquire Stanton then he'll suddenly become more of a $300M player. I get what you're saying, Rovin, and its not like I disagree with you. Stanton will cost either way, he's a very good player who has shown flashes of elite skill. Says a lot about a player when his floor is Mike Napoli of last year. I wouldn't put too much stock in his disinterest in signing an extension with the Marlins, since he's complained before about the team's approach to its own players. Also, signing a contract with Florida these days doesn't keep you safe from being traded. 
 
As for his injuries? Hm, yeah, not much I can use to rebut this point. He's had two years of straight decline in games played. Does this mean he's injury prone? Are his injuries of a more chronic condition? Sadly I have no idea beyond what I've read on the usual websites. I guess this part will be up to the Red Sox medical team to perform its due diligence. 
 
As for the package - well, it depends on what we think WMB and JBJ are. WMB has his skeptics but I'm still on board to give him a shot given his young age. Though his lack of taking a walk is not comforting, he'll need to post a really high BABIP to sustain his average. JBJ has faired poorly in his time but, again, age is a factor. Besides, after Pedroia's transformation I'm content to give the kids a shot. Its not like there is an abundance of talent to sign, anyway. But, if you tell me today that a Stanton package will "only" require WMB, JBJ, and Owens? I do that. 
 
It's hard to say what Stanton's floor is.  (His slugging was close to Napoli's last year but his value was much much lower.)
 
If we could figure out Stanton's floor - or his baseline going forward, then we'd have much more of an idea if this proposed trade makes sense or not.  Trouble is, all the moving parts have pretty big question marks attached.  
 
If Stanton was guaranteed to return to elite levels (or had a better/injury free 2014), then I'd certainly reconsider my position.   
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Rovin Romine said:
If Stanton was guaranteed to return to elite levels (or had a better/injury free 2014), then I'd certainly reconsider my position.   
 
I'm not a huge proponent of moving a bunch of top prospects for Stanton (although, a non-Xander package would be very tempting), but this is underselling him quite a bit.  He was dealing with a hamstring injury last year which will certainly impact power and still managed a .480 slugging percentage and a .231 ISO.  His walk rate, 14.7%, was the highest of his career and his BABIP was fairly neutral at .313.  So in a year where he was injured, and likely had residual effects plaguing him for some time after getting back no the field, he still managed to be the 24th most valuable bat in the game (135 wRC+) and put up the 11th highest ISO.  The power is still elite and if he's healthy, I have no doubt he is still one of the most dangerous and desirable bats in the sport.
 
The only question, for me, is his health.  I think his down production in 2013 (which was still borderline elite at worst) and his injury are entangled to a degree that trying to separate them isn't worth the effort.  He's had two leg injuries already, and that's worrisome, but he's still an elite bate.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Rovin Romine said:
A thousand times "no" on Stanton.  We just won a WS with depth and diversity and the solution is to change out a bunch of that depth for an oft injured "big name"?
The Red Sox have won two other championships in the last ten years with teams that featured many Stanton-like acquisitions - Manny, Pedro, Schilling, Beckett - "big names" acquired for minor league talent.  I'm not saying this proposed deal is unquestionably the right thing to do, but there's more than one way to skin a cat.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Philip Jeff Frye said:
The Red Sox have won two other championships in the last ten years with teams that featured many Stanton-like acquisitions - Manny, Pedro, Schilling, Beckett - "big names" acquired for minor league talent.  I'm not saying this proposed deal is unquestionably the right thing to do, but there's more than one way to skin a cat.
 
Umm...
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
Umm...
Doh, you're right of course.  I should have said "acquired for minor league talent and/or money."  But the point still stands.  For most of the last 15 years, the Sox have been in the fortunate position of having both a lot of money and a steady supply of minor league talent.  There are many different ways that the Sox might choose to use these resources.  There are many here who think the only good way to compete is to hoard young talent and maintain payroll flexibility.  But recent history suggests that this is not the only way the Red Sox can win.  Because the Sox gave Carl Crawford a bad contract or traded away young talent for Adrian Gonzalez doesn't mean that all such moves are doomed to fail.
 

Rovin Romine

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Philip Jeff Frye said:
The Red Sox have won two other championships in the last ten years with teams that featured many Stanton-like acquisitions - Manny, Pedro, Schilling, Beckett - "big names" acquired for minor league talent.  I'm not saying this proposed deal is unquestionably the right thing to do, but there's more than one way to skin a cat.
 
I get your point - and it's not a bad one.  However all of these guys, with maybe the exception of Beckett had sustained periods of excellence and little or no injury concerns.  
 

kieckeredinthehead

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Philip Jeff Frye said:
The Red Sox have won two other championships in the last ten years with teams that featured many Stanton-like acquisitions - Manny, Pedro, Schilling, Beckett - "big names" acquired for minor league talent.  I'm not saying this proposed deal is unquestionably the right thing to do, but there's more than one way to skin a cat.
 
I thought the narrative on 2004 being different from every other season since 1998 was that they went out and got the supporting cast to put the team over the top - Bill Mueller, David Ortiz, and Orlando Cabrera and the rest of the team did what Pedro and Manny couldn't do by themselves. 
 

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kieckeredinthehead said:
 
I thought the narrative on 2004 being different from every other season since 1998 was that they went out and got the supporting cast to put the team over the top - Bill Mueller, David Ortiz, and Orlando Cabrera and the rest of the team did what Pedro and Manny couldn't do by themselves. 
Sure, that was part of it, but they still had the second highest payroll in the game, $25 million or 25% more than the third place Angels.  And they gave up a fair bit of talent (two good prospects in Fossum and de la Rosa, plus a guy with some "closer" fairy dust in Lyon) that offseason to get Schilling.  And they opened the checkbook to get Foulke.  The 2004 team actually had very little of the "home grown, cost-controlled talent" that everybody around here loves so much. 
 

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Philip Jeff Frye said:
Sure, that was part of it, but they still had the second highest payroll in the game, $25 million or 25% more than the third place Angels.  And they gave up a fair bit of talent (two good prospects in Fossum and de la Rosa, plus a guy with some "closer" fairy dust in Lyon) that offseason to get Schilling.  And they opened the checkbook to get Foulke.  The 2004 team actually had very little of the "home grown, cost-controlled talent" that everybody around here loves so much. 
 
Which is why they got lucky spending so much money in competition with the Yankees back then.  That was fools gold.  They were later pretty unlucky with the group of mercenaries who were much better on paper than in the field until they were exiled in the Punto trade.  Theo, at the end, forgot that trying to match the Yankees dollar for dollar was foolish.  Cherington got much more for his money from all the acquisitions before the 2013 season.  Nevertheless, he seems determined not to repeat Theo's mistakes.  The strategy of developing a solid homegrown base is much better for the franchise.  The Sox can more cost effectively use their financial advantage to extend as many of their keepers as possible before they reach free agency while acquiring veterans (by free agency or trade) to plug those gaps that the organization can't fill from within during any particular year.  Rather than trade for Giancarlo Stanton, it's better to find your own (Bogaerts?) and extend them during their prime years of production (though Boras clients are tough signs).  Middlebrooks should get his chance but, if he falters, Cecchini is not far behind in their pipeline.  The Sox reload from season to season to exploit their financial advantage against most other teams (excepting the Yankees and Dodgers) rather than rebuild from scratch.  The only way for that to work is to continuously keep replenishing their talent with younger players (preferably those who you find, sign and develop yourself).  The smaller market teams can retain or replace their best veteran talents much better than they could even a decade ago.  The gap between the haves and have nots narrowed after the new collective bargaining agreement.  The plans that worked in 2004 won't work in 2014.