Horford - What do we have

Scott Cooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 2, 2002
1,493
The only thread i saw on him was when he was signed....but we are over halfway in and wondering what peoples thoughts are.

My main issues is that i thought he'd be more of a rebounder than i've seen. averaging 2 less than his career. There are games when i've seen him have 3-4 rebounds which for a man of his size seems pretty low.

What causes this? is it the Cletics system of where he is on the court? is it age?

What are our thoughts as I've seen glimpses of a great player, but so far have been underwhelmed.
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
9,152
San Francisco
Lets start with the basics. He is playing 33 mpg, right around his career average. And his total rebound rate, which measures the percentage of available rebounds he grabs, its a career low at 11.3%. This continues a trend - his TRB% has fallen every season since 2012, when he grabbed 15.7% of available rebounds. That is not a great number for a PF but its respectable. His rebounding this year indeed has been not so great. So you are right about the rebounding.

Some other numbers: 34% of his shots this year are 3s, last year this number was 24.4%, the rest of his career it was basically zero. So that is a big change in his game. Furthermore, his true shooting percentage is down to 54.1%, his career average is 56.8%. Turnovers, usage, and steals are at career averages. Blocks are up for him on a per possession basis which is interesting and unexpected (at least to me) for an older player. His assists are way up - 24.6% of Celtics made baskets are assisted by Horford when hes on the floor, his career average is 14.7%. This is a big number for a big man.

Some easy explanations: His 3 point attempts are way up, and you can see this in the games where he is frequently running pick and pops with Celtics guards. This pushes him out of the paint. We also see this in his assist numbers, which are way up. The Celtics system is playing to Horfords shooting and basketball IQ keeping him high up the floor, generally facing the basket. Naturally this will make it more difficult for him to grab offensive rebounds, and indeed one sees in his numbers that, at least compared with his previous two seasons, most of the drop in rebound rate is attributable to a large drop in his offensive rebounds. Nevertheless, his defensive rebounding has been decreasing slightly each year as well. This is to be expected as he ages.

Furthermore, taking him out of the paint one should expect his percentage on 2 point field goals to drop, as hes shooting more mid range jumpers as opposed to getting easy buckets around the hoop. And indeed, most of his drop in TS% is attributable to a drop in 2p%. For his career 31% of his shots have come within three feet of the hoop. This season that number is 21%.

Defensively, in my personal opinion many of the Celtics problems stem from Horford's issues. In particular he does not move very well on the perimeter and is often caught a step too far from his man. The prevalence of bigs who shoot the 3s is so recent that I dont think his experience really prepared him for having to face these kinds of players. He also really struggles on PnR action with IT's man - they both do. In all the Celtics defense is 6 points per 100 possessions better with Horford off the court than with him on. That is a big difference.
 

ifmanis5

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2007
63,740
Rotten Apple
He hasn't put up big rebound numbers since 2013. I've been frustrated by this as well to but the real answer is the NBA style of play has changed so much- who he guards, where he guards them, where he stands on offense, what he is being asked to do on both ends of the floor, the kinds of shots that he takes and that are being taken- has impacted these numbers greatly. He's guarding stretch 4's away from the basket, he's providing high screens and taking 3's as well on offense. All the 3's that Boston and the rest of the league takes produce long rebounds where traditional bigs aren't in position to get anymore. In short, it's a totally different style of play.
On the flip side, even though his rebounds are down, his assists and 3's are way up. He's more a well rounded offensive player than I expected. His blocked shots are also up so he's still aggressive on defensive he's just being asked to do different things because it's a different league.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,753
Twin Cities
The only real problem I've had is his perimeter D. It's hard to watch him and Johnson on the floor at the same time, because the D struggles so much against stretch 4/5 guys.
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
34,437
Haiku
He gives the Celtics their only rim protection, and passes so well out of the low and high post that the team can run their offense through him. Aside from that, he's been a bit disappointing, but the poor rebounding was expected.

My impression has been that his team defense has been very good, and the Celtics poor performance is still weighted down by the 10 games that Horford missed with a concussion. The team is much better with him than without him.

That, unfortunately, was my worst premonition about Horford: accumulating games lost to injury.
 

gammoseditor

also had a stroke
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,219
Somerville, MA
On the one hand I think he's been disappointing. The defense has it's limits with him on the floor and while he was never a great rebounder he's gotten worse. His defense fits best at C and he wants to be a PF. On the other hand if we didn't have him we would have major trouble defending the post and he does a lot of things well offensively. I think we'd clearly be worse off without him.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
He's hard to judge. His overall line is about right where it was the last 2 years in Atlanta, with worse FG% and rebounding numbers. Most of the rebounds are of the offensive variety, and as his game continues to move away from the rim that is to be expected as are lower FG%. He's continued to improve his 3 point game and as a side result he's either developed a better passing game or the move to the 3 point line utilizes his skill set better.

I'd want to say he's a slight disappointment but I think that would be really underselling what his passing from the position brings to the team. IT4 and Horford are two really hard players to judge and I think we end up underrating them because we see their warts. We have the 5th best record in the NBA and the 2nd best record in the East. Granted we have a very solid 1-5 and a pretty deep rotation, but we give our 2 superstars too little credit.
 

ifmanis5

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2007
63,740
Rotten Apple
Last night's performance has led me to this prediction: it will get ugly between the fans and Al.

Big guy who used to rebound a lot but doesn't anymore. Doesn't appear to play 'tough.' Disappears for stretches, can look passive. Shown some yip factor late in games. Signed to a long term contract for big money. All the ingredients are there for him to be branded as a Luxury Player.

I hope it doesn't happen since he's a well rounded big with few obvious flaws but if the perception of Olynyk is our JD Drew, Al is on his way to becoming our Jack Clark. The expectation was for him to fix all of our inside and rebounding woes. That was unrealistic but I think the average fan is getting annoyed at what they think they were getting and what they actually got. That's a bad recipe and I can feel the frustration brewing.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,474
Melrose, MA
Last night's performance has led me to this prediction: it will get ugly between the fans and Al.

Big guy who used to rebound a lot but doesn't anymore. Doesn't appear to play 'tough.' Disappears for stretches, can look passive. Shown some yip factor late in games. Signed to a long term contract for big money. All the ingredients are there for him to be branded as a Luxury Player.

I hope it doesn't happen since he's a well rounded big with few obvious flaws but if the perception of Olynyk is our JD Drew, Al is on his way to becoming our Jack Clark. The expectation was for him to fix all of our inside and rebounding woes. That was unrealistic but I think the average fan is getting annoyed at what they think they were getting and what they actually got. That's a bad recipe and I can feel the frustration brewing.
He's been a mediocre at best rebounder through this career, and there was never an expectation that he would solve our rebounding woes.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
He's been a mediocre at best rebounder through this career, and there was never an expectation that he would solve our rebounding woes.
He was a decent rebounder when he first started out and has gotten considerably worse throughout this career. Granted, the big drop in rebounds came when he expanded his game to the 3 point line. His rebounding rate will get worse while his assists rate improves and his 3FGA increase.

Any and all players who added a 3 point shot so their rebounding rates plummet and their assists totals rise. DeMarcus Cousins, Brock Lopez, Marc Gasol, Al Horford.
 

ifmanis5

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2007
63,740
Rotten Apple
He's been a mediocre at best rebounder through this career, and there was never an expectation that he would solve our rebounding woes.
His career TRB% isn't much different from potential rebounding free agent savior Larry Sanders.
And I'm not talking about people who post here, I'm talking about the expectations of the average fan who sees a 6-10 PF who used to average close to double digit rebounds for the first six years of his career. Most people who post here saw where and how he was playing in the playoffs last year and knew what to expect.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
His career TRB% isn't much different from potential rebounding free agent savior Larry Sanders.
And I'm not talking about people who post here, I'm talking about the expectations of the average fan who sees a 6-10 PF who used to average close to double digit rebounds for the first six years of his career. Most people who post here saw where and how he was playing in the playoffs last year and knew what to expect.
If they are overly fixated on his rebounding numbers, they'd probably be doing cartwheels about the assists number. If you are just reading a box score, he isn't really any less valuable than before.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,667
The Cs best play is a pick and roll at the top of the key with Horford fading out to the three point line while IT can either take it inside or kick it out to a wide open Horford if he draws both defenders. I think Horford's ability to reliably make threes from the top of the key has allowed IT to play better in the paint because Horford is drawing the big man away from the basket. I don't think it is a pure coincidence that IT is having his best season with Horford on the team.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I think most people seriously underestimate just how good a passer Horford is for the position he plays. Only ones comparable are Marc Gasol and Mason Plumlee. Expand it to PF's and you have Draymond, Boogie and Jokic.
 

ifmanis5

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2007
63,740
Rotten Apple

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,083
It's happening...





The worst thing you can be in a town like Boston is a highly paid player who gets the 'soft' reputation. Total death sentence. This storm is brewing and there's 3 more (big salary) years to go.
You're right - the "soft" label that KG was given here during the early rounds of the 2008 playoffs really stuck!
 

ifmanis5

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2007
63,740
Rotten Apple
You're right - the "soft" label that KG was given here during the early rounds of the 2008 playoffs really stuck!
If you recall correctly, the complaint was the KG took too many jumpers and fall away shots on offense, not that he was soft.

Edit: Just to be clear, Al Horford is a very good player and I'm glad he's on the team (although that price tag is looking a little iffy right now). However, if he keeps getting out-rebound by Isaiah Thomas, which happened tonight, we've seen how Boston fans treat players- especially non-home grown guys who are brought in at great expense- who get the 'soft' tag. It gets very ugly. We're headed in that direction.
 
Last edited:

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,083
If you recall correctly, the complaint was the KG took too many jumpers and fall away shots on offense, not that he was soft.
I'm glad you speak for everyone who posted in those game threads from 9 years ago. But the soft label was absolutely thrown around, whether explicitly or implied.
 

JCizzle

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2006
20,530
I don't fully agree with the complaints about how much he costs. Where else would that money be going and who serves as his replacement at the 4/5 on this year's team? Sully on the deal he got from the Raptors?
 
Last edited:

ishmael

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 3, 2006
640
Yep, better to have Horford than Bismack Biyombo starting and Zeller picking up an extra 10 min per game, like he did back in 2015.

Two bad losses in the last 3 games coming out of the break, but I am pretty damn far from pressing the panic button.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,403
around the way
What's concerning is that his February has been abysmal: .388/.302/.778. He has 9 blocks in 12 games, so there's not a lot of rim protection going on either. He's in some kind of funk. I don't think that anyone expects him to carry the team offensively, but the efficient scorer of the first three months is gone.
 

ifmanis5

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2007
63,740
Rotten Apple
I don't fully agree with the complaints about how much he costs. Where else would that money be going and who serves as his replacement at the 4/5 on this year's team? Sully on the deal he got from the Raptors?
3rd highest salary in the league. Only LeBron and Conley make more.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 2, 2007
4,932
East Village, NYC
3rd highest salary in the league. Only LeBron and Conley make more.
That's a bit disingenuous though, no? He makes more than a all but two guys in the league because the market drastically changed overnight, and the salary cap places limits on what players can make. It's not as if the Celtics valued him as the 3rd best player in the league.
 

ifmanis5

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2007
63,740
Rotten Apple
That's a bit disingenuous though, no? He makes more than a all but two guys in the league because the market drastically changed overnight, and the salary cap places limits on what players can make. It's not as if the Celtics valued him as the 3rd best player in the league.
True and agreed. The true worth of his contract will shake out as others go through the process when their deals are up and new cap levels adjust the market. However, at this point it looks like an overpay and miss-allocating assets will always hurt you. We'll see.
 

JCizzle

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2006
20,530
You're right. He does force a lot of guards to make tough layups around him lately. It's probably wearing them out.
If he's being asked to defend guards out at the perimeter, are there really many big men who can both defend the 3, but also prevent layups without help? I could be off, but in the times I remember him really getting burned, he was up top and simply didn't have the quickness to keep up with a smaller player driving by.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,403
around the way
Al Horford is entering... the JD Drew zone.
If he played in February like he did in November-January, I would completely agree with you. That player was shooting a high percentage, facilitating the offense, and being fairly productive overall. In February, Horford averaged 3.9 field goals per game for the month. Yes, it's only 12 games, but that's horrible. His Field Goal to Turnover ratio was under 2. Hell with the salary--he was not a good player in February, full stop.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,482
That's a bit disingenuous though, no? He makes more than a all but two guys in the league because the market drastically changed overnight, and the salary cap places limits on what players can make. It's not as if the Celtics valued him as the 3rd best player in the league.
It's also disingenuous because he was paid when a lot of others were paid. While there is only one guy ahead of him, there are five guys who are making the same as him this year (Mike Conley, DeRozen, Harden, Westbrook, and Durant) and more importantly, Al for the most part isn't out of place with the folks making in the same neighborhood (say over $20M).

Yes, it's tough to get a handle on how big sports contracts are these days.

Dirk Nowitzki: $25,000,000
Carmelo Anthony: $24,559,380
Damian Lillard: $24,328,425
Chris Bosh: $23,741,060
Dwyane Wade: $23,200,000
Dwight Howard: $23,180,275
Chris Paul: $22,868,828
Bradley Beal: $22,116,750
Anthony Davis: $22,116,750
Andre Drummond: $22,116,750
Chandler Parsons: $22,116,750
Hassan Whiteside: $22,116,750
Harrison Barnes: $22,116,750
Derrick Rose: $21,323,250
Marc Gasol: $21,165,675
Kevin Love: $21,165,675
DeAndre Jordan: $21,165,675
Brook Lopez: $21,165,675
Nicolas Batum: $20,869,566
LaMarcus Aldridge: $20,575,005
Blake Griffin: $20,140,838
Paul Millsap: $20,072,033
 

southshoresoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
5,249
Canton MA
He does so many things well for this team that his shooting slumps dont bother me. Unbelievable passer and ball handler for a big, his defensive versatility allows them to do a lot of diff things on that end.

The "soft" shit WRT athletes is such a lame term. If he got mad and scowled more and got Td up occasionally would that be better for you guys?
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
I think the rebounding stuff irritates people. Remember, people were calling KG soft when the C's were having trouble rebounding in the playoffs.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,083
The "soft" shit WRT athletes is such a lame term. If he got mad and scowled more and got Td up occasionally would that be better for you guys?
If a receiver goes over the middle but doesn't extend his arms for a catch and triggers an INT off a tipped pass, what do you call that?

If a basketball player shies away from contact and constantly fades away instead of initating contact, what do you call that?

If a soccer player constantly dives every time the wind blows on him, what do you call that?

The "soft" label has nothing to do with temperament. Nobody wants Ts. The "soft" label has to do with mentality and physicality. Is it overused? Absolutely. But that doesn't mean that it's not relevant in certain cases. I mean, this fanbase was gleefully calling Tomlinson and the Colts "soft" for over a decade.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
32,617
He's looked better the last two games. Let's hope his good play continues
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
43,558
Here
I think the rebounding stuff irritates people. Remember, people were calling KG soft when the C's were having trouble rebounding in the playoffs.
Sorry to cross post this video, but this is the shit that is hard to stomach. Critical part of the game/season (and I understand Thompson's a beast), but WTF, how hard is at to at least try to box your man out. This weak effort could have cost them the game.
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
26,991
Newton
That's hardly some Okafur-esque display tho. Horford had to be faced away from the basket in case the ball was passed into the lane. Then Thompson comes at him full speed and jams his forearm into his throat.

I mean, yeah, it could've been costly. But that's not exactly malpractice there.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
He had those 3 abysmal games after the all star break. The last 6: .643/.700/1.000 13.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.8 assists. Right around his season numbers and his last 2 seasons with the Hawks minus the assists. Last season was his first shooting the 3, and as the season went on his assist numbers improved monthly as he got comfortable beyond the arc. It carried over this year. Another thing to note with Horford is his FGA by month: 9.0 (3 games) 12.4, 14.1, 13.2, 10.1, 9.3. For some reason, after he missed those 2 games at the end of January he just hasn't been the scoring option he was before.

The Celtics as a whole are averaging about 5 less shots a game since January and it looks like Horford is all of it.