Home is where the heart is? FALSE

FL4WL3SS

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Simple question:

Why do the Bruins suck so badly at home?

I have no theories, no ideas, no reasons. I'm at the point where I don't even want to watch a home game because they're maddening. On the road, they look like a top-3 team in the league, but are performing like a bottom-3 team at home... what gives?
 

The Napkin

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I've always thought Claude got a little too into playing matchups at home and as a result he doesn't just roll his lines like he does at away. So instead of just playing they're always uber aware of who is on the ice when and oh no, line A is on so I must put our line A on and now it's line B so we have to change and and and.
They're good enough team with enough depth that this winds up hurting more than it helps and no one is ever as comfortable as they on the road.

Of course I think too much is made of "last change" as a strategy in general. I could, of course, be wrong.
 

Dummy Hoy

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I've always thought Claude got a little too into playing matchups at home and as a result he doesn't just roll his lines like he does at away. So instead of just playing they're always uber aware of who is on the ice when and oh no, line A is on so I must put our line A on and now it's line B so we have to change and and and.
They're good enough team with enough depth that this winds up hurting more than it helps and no one is ever as comfortable as they on the road.

Of course I think too much is made of "last change" as a strategy in general. I could, of course, be wrong.
At the high school level I find it isn't that important as a general strategy, although when it comes into play it can be a very big deal. I would guess this is because the talent gap is so much larger at that level though- If I see another coach throw out their third line and I can double up on my first (especially in the OZ) I'll jump at that. I think at the pro level there may be some deeper knowledge at hand (specific mismatches based on personnel), but you're probably right. It is one of the few things a coach can control during a game, so maybe Clode is just trying to be more active.
 

veritas

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Looking deeper into the splits, one stat that really stands out is 5 on 5 Sv%.

A league worst .9054 at home, and .9446 on the road, 2nd best. That's a staggering difference and completely overshadows the fact that their possession stats are actually better at home. That's a lot of goals to write off as a statistical noise at this point in the season. I don't have an explanation
 

FL4WL3SS

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Is Tuukka playing worse at home?

One other thing I'm trying to look up if I have time at work is the difference in rink sizes. If memory serves me well (doubtful), the Bruins have one of the smaller rinks in the league. Do they play better on larger ice surfaces? Would seem counter-intuitive given their lack of backend speed, but who knows.
 

PedroSpecialK

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Rinks are all standardized now IIRC, the old Garden had a smaller sheet.

Rask has an .896 sv% at home, .939 on the road.

Bruins PK% at home is 81.5, on the road it's 87.2%. That strong road PK (potentially driven by better goaltending) is a huge part of this
 

cshea

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ES home PDO is 97.6 which suggests they're due for some positive regression. It's driven by that abysmal .9054 home save percentage. They have better possession at home, and allow fewer shot attempts than they do on the road but for whatever reason they don't get as many saves.

My guess is they are a bit more aggressive and take more chances at home, because they have the crowd and it's a more comfortable environment. As a result are having more breakdowns and giving up way more quality chances against. On the road they may be more conscious of making mistakes and this minimizing them more.
 

Dummy Hoy

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That Rask save percentage stat is bizarre. He's got a young kid, are we sure she's not keeping him up all night with typical kid stuff? Just kidding...sort of.
This is a very reasonable suggestion...as much as fans may not want to accept it, the players are people too, with legit problems and issues that can affect their work life.

I like cshea's thought too...this happens a lot in non-american football (AKA Football), where there is a mentality of home=attack, road=defensive. Are there any stats that would show more aggression? do they have shot attempts with H/R splits?
 

PedroSpecialK

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Bruins have attempted 833 shots at home this year in 26 GP (32 per game) with an average-ish 8.6 shot%

On the road, they have attempted 708 shots in 23 GP (30.8 per game) with a 10.2 shot%
 

cshea

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This is a very reasonable suggestion...as much as fans may not want to accept it, the players are people too, with legit problems and issues that can affect their work life.

I like cshea's thought too...this happens a lot in non-american football (AKA Football), where there is a mentality of home=attack, road=defensive. Are there any stats that would show more aggression? do they have shot attempts with H/R splits?
The site I use only has ES home/road splits. Oddly enough, the Bruins shots for and against are virtually identical home and road.

At ES, they average 30.7 SF per 60 at home. On the road, 30.8 SF/60 (which actually leads the league). Shots against are 29.6 per 60 on the road, 28.9 per 60 at home. Corsi numbers mimic this so it's not a weird inability to get attempts on net thing. At ES, the home/road shot metrics are virtually identical on both ends of the ice.
 

NickEsasky

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This may seem stupid, but considering many goalies complain about the lighting at MSG, could there also be an issue with visibility at home? Is this just one one year thing or has his save % always been a bit worse at home and it's just worse this year because the defense in front of him isn't as good?

Edit: Nevermind his save % is higher at home historically.
 

cshea

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This may seem stupid, but considering many goalies complain about the lighting at MSG, could there also be an issue with visibility at home? Is this just one one year thing or has his save % always been a bit worse at home and it's just worse this year because the defense in front of him isn't as good?

Edit: Nevermind his save % is higher at home historically.
Team home ES save percentage (Rask + backup)

12/13: .9413
13/14: .9544
14:15: .9388

The big leap is this year they give up an average of 54.2 shot attempts against per 60. In the 3 years listed above, they gave up between 47-49 shots per 60. They aren't as good surprising attempts as in the past, and I suspect it's not all perimeter shots.

I think the issues are a combination of a little bit of bad luck and mostly weaker defense giving up higher quality chances against. Just thinking back to last night, the Ducks ES goals were Corey Perry with a clean look off a turnover from below the right circle, Perron rebound from right in front, and Bieksa blasting away from the high slot on an odd man rush (had the game off for the 6th). Those aren't really ones you can blame on Rask/Gus nor is it bad luck. Just bad defense. Why that seems to happen more at home than on the road is anyone's guess.
 

The Napkin

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This may seem stupid, but considering many goalies complain about the lighting at MSG, could there also be an issue with visibility at home? Is this just one one year thing or has his save % always been a bit worse at home and it's just worse this year because the defense in front of him isn't as good?

Edit: Nevermind his save % is higher at home historically.
They did redo the concourse though with all new lighting and other shiny things. Is it possible there's a glare or something coming from the new lights/walls/whatever coming down the tunnels?
 

NickEsasky

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They did redo the concourse though with all new lighting and other shiny things. Is it possible there's a glare or something coming from the new lights/walls/whatever coming down the tunnels?
This was my initial thought as I know they changed some of that stuff a little ways back but the numbers don't seem to match based on what's on Hockey Reference. I'm thinking cshea is probably right and it's a combo of worse defense in front of Tuukka, luck, and maybe getting a bit too comfortable at home.
 

brienc

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I'd guess that cshea is right, but I have heard rumblings that Halak was complaining about not being able to see the puck when the Islanders are wearing their new black third jerseys at home.
 

TSC

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Wouldn't it have an impact on the visiting goalies too? Or maybe moreso since they don't play there often and would have less opportunity to adjust.
If the new lights/other stuff were installed opposite of where Tuukka plays the 1st, and 3rd periods - it may effect the other goalie but only half as much as it effects Tuukka.
 

cshea

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I went back and watched all the goals the Bruins have allowed at home (not including the WC). All 76 of them. Well, 69 since 6 were ENG's and I couldn't find a replay of a Mike Hoffman goal. Here's what I've found.

The goals are all coming from high danger areas. Of the 69 goals I watched, only 6 came from a shot from what I would call the perimeter (outside and above the circles). Of those 6, 3 were blue line floaters went in, but 2 were deflected en route. The only 3 long range shots to beat Rask/Gus at home were a Jyrki Jokipakka floater from the left point that had eyes and then a Francois Beauchemin bomb off draw from the straightaway and Reilly Smith's goal from the along the RW boards. All the other goals were circles on in. By my unscientific count, 39 of 69 goals I watched came from around the top of the crease or breakaway's. The rest were mostly one timers and shots from the circles (like Seguin's hat trick).

I guess in short, the problems are mostly defense. I was expecting more "damn, Rask/Gus should've had that" goals against but they really aren't there. Maybe 1 or 2 each. The rest are just defensive calamities and errors.Things like Irwin farting the puck away leading to Wheeler scoring on an unstoppable one timer from 2 feet out. Chara blowing a tire in the corner leading to RNH getting the puck all alone in the high slot with enough time and space to shoot, collect rebound and shoot again.
 

Dummy Hoy

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Thanks, that is great work.

As long as you're there, can you compare that with the away goals? I ask b/c the vast majority of goals are scored from the 'house,' so I would wonder if your research wouldn't reveal a similar situation with the away GA.
 

cshea

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Thanks, that is great work.

As long as you're there, can you compare that with the away goals? I ask b/c the vast majority of goals are scored from the 'house,' so I would wonder if your research wouldn't reveal a similar situation with the away GA.
Yup. Similar. 50 road goals against (I missed 1 somewhere so only saw 49). 3 ENG's, 2 5-on-3 goals against.

Of the remaining 44, 2 long range shots, Thomas Hickey and Trevor Daley bombs. 1 truly fluky goal (Paul Byron's over the net flip that bounced off a Bruin defenseman and in). 1 maybe fluke- Mark Stone behind the net banked on in off Seidenberg's skate. Can't decide if it was intentional or not, but it was a PP. 33 net/crease front goals.

It makes sense-there's a reason those area's are deemed high danger. That's where goals are scored from. I don't think the goalies have any sort of home/road issues. The defense just seems to be a tad more stingy on the road for whatever reason and the other team doesn't get as many looks in those area's? Maybe they just bear down and focus more on the road because it's drilled in them that playing on the road is hard and they can't be stupid and need to play a "good road game."