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HoF: Who is In?

Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by BostonWolverine, Feb 7, 2019.

  1. BostonWolverine

    BostonWolverine lurker

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    72
    We've been dancing around this topic in the Edelman thread and others but I think it deserves its own thread.

    Who in the magnificent run makes it (or should make it) into the Hall?

    Lets start with those already in
    Bill Parcells (maybe you can consider '96 a different era but I'm going to include it in this thread)
    Curtis Martin
    Junior Seau
    Randy Moss
    Ty Law

    Here's my list
    First ballot
    Kraft
    Belichick
    Brady

    Definitely in
    Vinatieri
    Gronk
    Revis

    Maybe in
    Seymour
    Scarnecchia
    Gostkowski (needs to keep it going but is on track)

    Honorable mentions
    Slater (should be in the discussion but special teams gets no love)
    Mankins
     
  2. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    If Rodney Harrison had (rightfully) won the XXXIX MVP, he might have gotten in.

    Matt Light was an 11 year starter at LT and played in 5 Super Bowls. I mean... that's at least discussion worthy.

    Mike Vrabel could have been the MVP of XXXVIII, that would have boosted his cause as well.
     
  3. DennyDoyle'sBoil

    DennyDoyle'sBoil Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill SoSH Member

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    How does it work for owners? Seems like they should be kind of perpetually eligible since they don't really retire.
     
  4. Adrian's Dome

    Adrian's Dome Member SoSH Member

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    Welker would be in the conversation if not for the drop and the fact he never got a ring, but them's the breaks.
     
  5. BostonWolverine

    BostonWolverine lurker

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    72
    That's my thought too. he also only scored 50 regular season touchdowns good for like 120th. Slot receivers may need to be treated separately but considering how hard it is for traditional receivers to get in I won't hold my breath. Also, there were a couple players whose entire pats career fell in between the 05 to 13 seasons so they never got to win. Talk about bad luck.
     
    #5 BostonWolverine, Feb 7, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2019
  6. dynomite

    dynomite Member SoSH Member

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    6,610
    Good offseason topic.

    I totally agree on Gronk. No brainer. From 2011 to 2017 he was the most physically dominant, game changing TE I’ve ever seen in the NFL.

    The PFW guys spent a long time debating this a few weeks ago on their podcast, and they claim he’ll be limited by his stats, which surprised me. I’m on mobile so tough for me to post stats, but they were right that Gronk’s stats (apart from TDs) don’t match up with the “receivers playing TE” category of guys like Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Antonio Gates. Gonzalez is 6th all time with 15,000 yards (!). Jason Witten had 12,400. Gates has 11,800 yards (and counting, sort of). Gronk is at only 7,800, tied with Greg Olsen.

    Still, given Gronk’s legendary blocking and abilities as an in-line TE, he seems like a no-brainer to me. If Ozzie Newsome and Dave Casper are in, and if Gates is a sure-fire Hall of Famer (which seems to be the case), Gronk has to be in too.
     
  7. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    7,098
    Contributors can be nominated any time by the Seniors and Contributors committee. Jerry Jones was inducted in 2017, and is probably the closest parallel to Kraft as an owner/contributor at least in terms of timeline. So it wouldn't surprise me if Kraft got in 2020-22 timeframe.

    Matt Light should at least be an honorable mention. As should Wilfork and Welker and Corey Dillon, IMHO. Ben Watson will not get in, but he's had a pretty remarkable career and it would be nice to see him as one of the 25 nominees when he's eligible.

    While Vinatieri should be a lock, the anti-kicker bias remains strong, so it may take a bit. Of course, he has to retire first.

    If either Belichick or Brady are denied in their first ballot, they should blow the thing up. And anyone making an argument against Gronk should be ignored.
     
  8. Shelterdog

    Shelterdog Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    28th all time in receiving touchdowns, third among TEs is a pretty big stat to ignore. Plus the rings (and the dearth of other good Pats candidates).

    I got mocked a little on here when halfway through his rookie year I said he was going to the hall of fame but he was so damn good; probably not a super long career but like a T. Davis or Sayers he was dominant at his peaks (and his peak was longer than those two HofFamers).
     
  9. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Does Revis have the longevity, or the impact on the sport, sufficient to make a case against all the other great candidates that are nominated from year to year? His first few years in the league were DPOY-worthy, but he didn't have a lengthy career. 9 years playing more than 2 games, 6 with AV > 10. Although I loved the one year he was here, and how he's manipulated the GMs of half the league, if they were on a ballot together I'd probably vote for Seymour and Mankins over him.
     
  10. DennyDoyle'sBoil

    DennyDoyle'sBoil Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill SoSH Member

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    After Gronk, I think the next closest is Slater, by virtue of the fact that he has a couple years left to make a case.

    Tasker probably won't get in, but if he does in the next 5 to 10 years, then Slater becomes a lock. Even if Tasker doesn't get in, Slater already has a better resume. Another all pro or another two pro bowls, and I think he'd become a pretty compelling case to make it as a special teamer. He is also a Bart Starr winner. I'm surprised he doesn't get mentioned more for a Walter Payton position but making it as a finalist would probably push him pretty close -- though for as long as DMac is on the team Slater may have trouble even being the team's finalist.
     
  11. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Revis Island. That type of thing goes a long way.

    Mankins might have had a shot if he didn't suck in XLII and XLVI. Kinda like Welker.
     
  12. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Have I missed something? What does Curtis Martin have to do with with the Patriots "magnificent run"?
     
  13. Morgan's Magic Snowplow

    Morgan's Magic Snowplow Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Peak is a huge part of Gronk's case. He has a Sandy Koufax kind of argument.

    Nobody has ever been better at the TE position than peak Gronk and I don't think its even close. If being the GOAT at the position during your peak doesn't get you into the HoF, something is wrong.
     
  14. bankshot1

    bankshot1 Member SoSH Member

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    No love for Wilfork?

    I think he's got a puncher's chance at the HoF.
     
  15. Dernells Casket n Flagon

    Dernells Casket n Flagon Member SoSH Member

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    I think in the NFL peak is more important than Longevity because it's such a violent sport and you get a lot of stars that are at the end around age 30.

    Revis was a Pro Bowler every year from 2008-2015 except for his 2012 ACL tear season, and was an all pro 4 times during it. I think he's pretty darn close to a no doubt candidate.

    I also think that Gronk is a first ballot HOFer.

    I think Richard Seymour will get in with 7 Pro Bowls, 3 All Pros and 3 rings.

    I think Wilfork is in the Matt Light and Mankins borderline category that probably should get in.
    Wilfork - 5 Pro Bowls, 1 All Pro, 2 Rings
    Light - 3 Pro Bowls, 1 All Pro, 3 Rings
    Mankins - 7 Pro Bowls, 1 All Pro, 1 Ring
     
  16. DegenerateSoxFan

    DegenerateSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Or better yet, forced to watch an endlessly repeating loop of his beautiful lay-out in the fourth quarter we just saw.
     
  17. Shelterdog

    Shelterdog Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I've said this before on here but the 2007 loss (and to a lesser extent the 2006 AFC loss which could have easily led to another superbowl) really hurt a couple of guys's chances -- in particular Light, Welker, Wilfork, Harrison and Mankins. Not a ton of rings for most of those guys (Wilfork's were from the bookends of his career when he wasn't a major factor, Mankins and Welker are both at zero if I added right), and Light wasn't quite good enough to get in with three rings, but add a 19-0 perfect season superbowl and all of the sudden they all move up into quasi legendary status.
     
  18. Dernells Casket n Flagon

    Dernells Casket n Flagon Member SoSH Member

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    I also think that Vinatieri is a lock even with the anti-kicker bias.

    NFL all time leading scorer. 3 Time All Pro. 4 Rings.

    Iconic post season success:
    • Snow bowl FG
    • Rams Game Winning Super Bowl FG
    • Panthers Game Winning Super Bowl FG.
     
  19. SirPsychoSquints

    SirPsychoSquints Member SoSH Member

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    Other Patriots with at least 4 pro bowls (since 1999), not yet mentioned: Talib (5), Dillon (4), Samuel (4)
     
  20. RoyHobbs

    RoyHobbs Member SoSH Member

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    I forgot who posted it but in another thread a few days ago, someone made a really good case for Scar as a guy who could buck the trend of positional coaches getting little/no love. That poster should copy and paste into this thread.
     
  21. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    There is quite a bit of irony in the bolded, as Welker had 11 catches for 103 yards and was rumored to be named MVP if the Pats held on to win that game.
     
  22. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    58,400
    At what point do we separate mercenary Patriots or we can claim as "our" HoFers based primarily on their work with other teams with, you know, guys with a bulk of years of service with NE?
     
  23. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    This list is really Curtis Martin (who isn't even a part of this era), Junior Seau, and Revis IMO. I know Moss was only in NE for 3+ years but he set records in that first year that, while it didn't make him a HoF'er, probably made him a first ballot HoF'er.
     
  24. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    58,400
    You think Moss is a HoFer because of his time with the Patriots?
     
  25. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    I just edited my post... HoF'er before Pats, yes, first ballot no doubter, probably not. He set records in 2007 and I think that matters.
     
  26. BornToRun

    BornToRun Member SoSH Member

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    I don’t see how Gronk isn’t a shoe-in. Football definitely cuts a lot more slack than other sports when it comes to longevity. Gronk may not have the counting stats that other players do but for a period of time he was an unstoppable weapon in the passing game. Couple that with his elite blocking, as you said, and it becomes a no brainer. I remember when he was discussed as a GOAT candidate in his prime.

    I don’t claim to be the football expert that some other folks here are, but a hall of fame without Rob Gronkowski in it seems like a joke to me.
     
  27. DennyDoyle'sBoil

    DennyDoyle'sBoil Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill SoSH Member

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    Moss counts as a Patriot. He singled out Dante Scarnecchia in his HOF induction speech. That's good enough for me. A Viking first, yes, but the Patriots are a very solid second.
     
  28. TheoShmeo

    TheoShmeo Skrub's sympathy case Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Gost might have the numbers to put him in the conversation but just like Edelman gets points for the post season, I think Gost's performance in AFCCGs and Super Bowls should be a negative factor against him. His miss in Denver caused them to have to go for a 2-point conversion, which didn't work and ended the season, and his miss in the 3-28 game forced them into two 2-point conversion tries which they thankfully made. He missed a makeable kick in this past SB which could have been a huge factor in a game that was close until it wasn't. All kickers have misses but he's had more than his fair share in big spots. I don't look at Gost and see a HOFer
     
  29. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    20,583
    Agreed, he can't be a HoF'er when he has missed kicks in 3 of the 4 SBs he has played in, and cost them dearly in that 2015 AFCCG
     
  30. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    Gostkowski's career playoff FG accuracy is 88.6%. Vinatieri's is 81.1%.
     
  31. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    A) different league B) moments matter, especially for kickers
     
  32. BornToRun

    BornToRun Member SoSH Member

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    Ghost in the playoffs: 39/44 88.6%
    Adam V with the Colts in the playoffs: 30/35 85.7%

    I know Gostkowski has had a few costly shanks in the postseason and doesn’t have that signature kick but I think we all remember the narrative that David Price couldn’t pitch in the playoffs, and then he did. I can also think of a few clutch field goals, regular and postseason, that he has made. Is Ghost missing in January/February the last few years a sign of choking or just a fluky occurrence that’s going to happen when you’re in the playoffs every year?
     
  33. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    20,583
    Vinatieri has had signature moments. A lot of them. Gost hasn't, plain and simple. Maybe he is one of the top kickers in NFL history, I dunno. I do know that BB was ready to go for the first down on Sunday night, and he also passed up another < 50 yard FG attempt, and he passed up on a < 50 yard FG attempt in XLII after a shanked kickoff... if BB the GOAT doesn't have 100% confidence in the guy, it is hard for me to back him.

    Edit: Robbie Gould has a better career % and similar number of made FG - should he be in? I mean, he shouldn't be penalized for being on crappy teams, right?
     
  34. BornToRun

    BornToRun Member SoSH Member

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    11,004
    I’m not talking about Gould. And again, just because someone hasn’t done something doesn’t mean they can’t. We’ve seen the dude make big kicks before, so assuming that he’s just some guy who can’t do it when it matters most isn’t exactly fair.

    Signature moments matter, of course, but I don’t think it’s right to denigrate someone’s accomplishments because they haven’t had them because those moments are often very dependent on outside factors that the player in question can’t control.

    And as for B.B. not trusting him, Gostkowski has been our kicker since 2006. He’s been lining up for field goal attempts in 11 separate postseason runs (missed playoffs in 2008, he was hurt in 2010). If he is so unreliable, why the hell has Bill kept him around for so long?
     
  35. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    7,098
    How is it in a different league? The rules are the same for both kickers, with Adam having had a slight advantage due to spending half his career in a dome.

    I get that the signature kick will matter to HoF voters, especially since most of them are clueless when it comes to judging kickers. But there is a solid statistical argument for Gostkowski, despite some high profile misses.
     
  36. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    AV kicked on natural grass from 1996-2005 with the Pats. Gost kicked on field turf his whole career basically.

    Also, look at the all time top FG% - it is dominated by current kickers. Kickers have improved a shit ton and it is much easier to make FGs now. Remember when they pushed back the PAT in 2015?

    Edit: it's not all that different from QB play being much, much better now, and the passer ratings rankings being dominated by current players

    Edit 2: the top 5, and 9 of the top 11 all time kickers in FG% are current kickers. Make of that what you will.

    Edit 3: there isn't a single kicker in the top 60 all time FG% who retired prior to 2000
     
    #36 tims4wins, Feb 7, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2019
  37. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    But if you are talking about Gost, how can you not talk about Gould? Both outdoor kickers, came into the league within a year of each other, both in the top 3 all time %, within 10 made FG of each other. They are DIRECTLY comparable.
     
    #37 tims4wins, Feb 7, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2019
  38. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    Everything you say here is correct. I’m not as big a Pats’ homer as the majority of folks here, but I would be absolutely shocked if Gronk was not a 1st-ballot selection.

    For similar reasons, I think Revis is a lock too, though I wouldn’t be shocked if he had to wait a year or two. Revis isn’t in the GOAT discussion at his position like Gronk is.

    Vinatieri is in too. Only question is whether he’s a first-ballot selection.

    Defensive tackles get no love from HOF voters. Only three who began their careers after 1970 are in the Hall of Fame — Randy White, Dan Hampton, and Cortez Kennedy. I don’t see Seymour or Wilfork joining that club. (If you want to push the start date back to 1965, you add Joe Greene and Alan Page to the discussion, but I don’t think that changes the analysis.)
     
  39. BuellMiller

    BuellMiller lurker

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    I was going to point out that we ended up getting Tebucky Jones as compensation for him, who helped in 36, and then eventually turned into Corey Dillon. But then I realized it was actually Robert Edwards that was technically the Jets pick.
     
  40. TheoShmeo

    TheoShmeo Skrub's sympathy case Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Gost missed a FG in the divisional round following the 16-0 season, and BB thereafter made the very curious decision to go for it on 4th and 13 and pass up a makeable 48 yard kick in Super Bowl against the MFGs. I always thought that had that been AV, Belichick would have let his kicker kick.

    One instance, early on, when the HC did not show confidence in his kicker does not define anyone. And if BB did not have overall confidence in Gost, he would not have lasted this long. And his numbers are what they are. But we've seen BB hesitate with or pass on this guy kicking in big spots several times in the post season, and we've seen some big misses in SBs and AFCCGs.

    I'll fall off my chair if this guy is a first ballot HOFer and will be surprised if he ever makes it.
     
  41. BigJimEd

    BigJimEd Member SoSH Member

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    Gost has a long way to go. Vinatieri is in due to his big moments AND longevity.
     
  42. Seels

    Seels Member SoSH Member

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    Gost isn't close.
    2014 he wasn't asked to kick a field goal
    2015 he famously missed
    2016 he missed and they avoided the rest of the game
    2017 he missed a pa and field goal
    2018 he missed a field goal

    It's not that he's come up short, he's come up short repeatedly. Nevermind that Belichick outright avoided him in 42.
     
  43. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Also missed a PAT vs. the Steelers in 2016, and missed a FG vs. the Titans last year
     
  44. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Yep
     
  45. NortheasternPJ

    NortheasternPJ Member SoSH Member

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    I'm not even sure he'll be on the roster next year with his cap hit. I'm not saying he should go, but they're not franchising him.

    I'd put Gost's chances of getting into the HOF the same as mine.
     
  46. amRadio

    amRadio lurker

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    I've been lurking here for years and this is the conversation that finally broke me. I couldn't read this and not have anybody mention Chandler Jones. He may not be a HOFer as we speak, but he is at 77 sacks at 28 years old. If he plays 3-4 more seasons, he seems like a mortal lock for 100 sacks. Add in 2 All Pros and 2 Pro Bowls, if he makes one more pro-bowl and has one or two more double digit sack seasons, I think there will be a real HOF chance there.
     
  47. Marciano490

    Marciano490 Urological Expert SoSH Member

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    He had 36 sacks, one Super Bowl win and one Pro Bowl appearance as a Pat. If he makes the HoF, it’ll largely be due to his time with AZ and elsewhere.
     
  48. Average Game James

    Average Game James Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Current run- Brady, Gronk, and that’s it. They’ve had two non-ST all pro players (Revis, Gilmore). Gost has been AP twice, but kickers rarely make the hall and he’s not even the best of his generation.

    Older Pats - I think Seymour eventually makes it. 3 first team AP and one of the two best players on a defense that carried them to multiple titles.

    More generally, I think the Pats get a lose number of guys in than other dynasties in large part because this run has been driven by Brady and BB and the constant ability to adapt vs. consistently having transcendent talents on the roster.
     
  49. AB in DC

    AB in DC OG Football Writing Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    I think Wilfork makes it in due to the Butt Fumble. No, I'm not kidding. You want to talk about iconic plays? He might be a borderline case on stats alone, but get the HoF committee in the room laughing about the Butt Fumble together and I think he gets the votes.
     
  50. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I wonder if Wilfork's case will be aided by the fact that he remains so active around the game, and is such a good interview. Call it the Inverse Jim Rice Effect.
     

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