Hitting the Decker: One Year Deal
- Thread starter MillarTime
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He's only 31, he's not ancient. Caught 65% of the passes thrown his way last year, higher than his career rate. His YPC was only 10.4 and the lowest of his career, but that may have been a function of the offense. In his glory years in Denver he was at 13+ but he had D. Thomas, J. Thomas, Welker, etc. around him (and of course Manning). He has played for McDaniels (first half of 2010, his rookie year) so he should be able to pick up the offense. Worth a shot. I like this better than signing LaFell.
Pats apparently needed to meet their quota of swarthily-handsome matinee idols with the losses of Jimmy G and Amendola. My mom will be happy.
31 is pretty much ancient. Only 12 wide receivers (including Decker) in the NFL last year were in their 30s and caught 20 passes or more. Only one was older than 32 (Larry Fitz) and only four were older than 31 (Fitz, Jordy Nelson, Ted Ginn, and 'Dola).
And yes, this does mean we should be worried about the 32-year-old Edelman.
Fans of all genders and orientations should be happy with this signing.
You're focusing on wide receiver where I agree he's on the downside, but it sounds the Pats are hoping to play him plenty in the slot: https://weei.radio.com/blogs/ryan-hannable/eric-decker-patriots-signing-what-can-wide-receiver-bring-offense
So I wouldn't dismiss him at 31 - plenty of quality receivers have been productive at his age. For recent Pat's receivers alone, Branch, Welker and Moss were still productive at 32, and Troy Brown at 35. I really like this pickup, especially on a team in need of another receiver
Ms Decker is hot
With Decker in the slot if the Pats could only get Dez Bryant at WR
the walk-up song in that formation....
I don't want to end up like Brady and Bill
With Decker in the slot if the Pats could only get Dez Bryant at WR
the walk-up song in that formation....
I don't want to end up like Brady and Bill
I feel like if Decker signed with another team the reaction would have been along the lines of he’s old, has injury history baggage, and he’s toast. He’s a camp flyer at this point and that’s my expectations for the signing. If it works out, great, but most signings like these have a shelf-life of mid-August.
Quick edit: I also want nothing to do with Dez. He looked bad last year (continuation of a trend) and I would speculate he isn’t fit for what Belichick is looking for.
Quick edit: I also want nothing to do with Dez. He looked bad last year (continuation of a trend) and I would speculate he isn’t fit for what Belichick is looking for.
A turd is indeed a turd whether the turd dons the flying Elvis or not. I like it.
I'm a bit surprised by reactions. Sure he's old but guy can produce. He's great in the red zone. Perhaps a different version of danny amendola but same positive outcomes?
My list included both slot guys and conventional WR (hence Amendola's inclusion). It's still rare. And Decker in the slot is speculative, though I think there is some logic there.
Moss and Welker are two of the greatest WR ever. Brown's last really productive year was 31; he never cracked 500 yards after that. I guess Branch is a positive outcome for what they're signing him for, or Amendola's 2017.
Of course, that's the question - what are they signing him for? Amendola had a big year last year with Edelman out, but he was a sub-300 yard guy in the seasons where the WR corps was healthy. When/if Edelman's back, Decker figures to have a minimal role as a fourth WR, and he doesn't bring the punt return value Amendola does. Is he competing for slot duties the first four weeks? Is he competing with Mitchell / Britt for outside reps opposite Hogan? How do Patterson and Dorsett fit in (or do they)?
I'm not being critical of the move; it's a fine tire-kicking, but if Decker's playing a big role come October the offense is probably 2013 bad.
Uh, dude, how long is that list?
He's a perfectly fine pick up for a position they have an immediate need at. IF they get four games out of him until Edelman is back, the contract is worth it. They're not banking on him being a major cog, the guy has been in street clothes all off season. I'm also not knocking him for production #'s working with Mariotta and that offense.
And also, I'm on team #Dez, so while I found this perfectly cromulent, I was a tad disappointed.
Is Welker one of the greatest ever? I think it depends on how you define it. The NFL has been around for 50 years. I did a quick look at Pro Football Reference and where he ranks all time for wide receivers. Some notables: Welker ranks 42nd in receiving yards, 33rd in PFR's AV, and 7th in All-Purpose-Yards. Again this is just looking at wide receivers. When I think of great I think of the equivalent of a first round grade. Sure, there are some guys who are elite first rounders (guys in the top 1, 2 picks). Jerry Rice's career is an obvious example of an elite first rounder in this hypothetical. I think, like the draft, there is on average at least 1 great wide receivers produced each year. Some years you will have none and in others you'll get 3. But I think I'd be ok considering somewhere around 50 wide receivers as great. Welker is somewhere in that 30's to 40's range so I don't have a problem considering him great. He was one of the all-time Patriots WR greats. Also, I think nitpicking misses the point. Even if Welker isn't the super-duper penultimate to Moss 1-2 punch WR he was still better than the vast majority of those who played before him.
If ‘one of greatest ever’ at a single position entails 50 players, it really has no meaning to me. His punt return yards don’t really lend much to that. If you want to qualify it as ‘slot wr’, sure, I’m open to that discussion. But if you want to start throwing around qualifiers, you’re moving the goal posts. In no world does Welker belong in a discussion of greatest WR ever. Sorry. SN declared him one of the greatest WRs ever. Those were his words.
Further I don’t see what his rank in Patriots lore has to do with anything and I have no idea what point you’re trying to make with the draft pick analogy. His stats compared to player me before him, in part at least, are part of the evolution of the game and it’s transition to passing. Would you consider Matt Stafford an ‘all time great’? Cause his numbers stack up.
Further I don’t see what his rank in Patriots lore has to do with anything and I have no idea what point you’re trying to make with the draft pick analogy. His stats compared to player me before him, in part at least, are part of the evolution of the game and it’s transition to passing. Would you consider Matt Stafford an ‘all time great’? Cause his numbers stack up.
Sorry for the confusing analogy. I don’t think using raw stats is the best way to look at greatest because it doesn’t provide context for the different eras which is why I posted AV as the first metric. YMMV on retreads.
We can agree to disagree on greatness. Sports radio conversation anyway. It doesn’t matter. You want an inclusive list? Cool. (Quick edit: not being snarky here. Live and let live over that kind of stuff)
I like side bets so I’ll donate $25 to the Jimmy Fund if he makes the opening roster and another $25 if he’s there by the end of the season (active roster only IR or PUP doesn’t count). The odds of retreads sticking are low so don’t worry about matching it.
We can agree to disagree on greatness. Sports radio conversation anyway. It doesn’t matter. You want an inclusive list? Cool. (Quick edit: not being snarky here. Live and let live over that kind of stuff)
I like side bets so I’ll donate $25 to the Jimmy Fund if he makes the opening roster and another $25 if he’s there by the end of the season (active roster only IR or PUP doesn’t count). The odds of retreads sticking are low so don’t worry about matching it.
Fair, "one of the greatest WR ever" is hyperbole, but Welker was a special player, maybe the best ever at that specific slot role. His run from 2007-2012 - averaging 112 catches for 1243 yards and 6 TDs - was bonkers. I agree that we shouldn't put him on a pedestal with the Mosses and TOs and Megatrons of the world, but we should also recognize that he was special. And the reason I push on this point is because Welker was introduced in the first place (by @RoDaddy , not by you) as an example of a player who was still good at 31, and I think it's important to highlight that Welker was really freakin' good and just because he was still effective later in his career (and Welker fell off a cliff halfway through his age-32 season) doesn't tell us much about what a lesser player like Decker might do.
Don’t disagree with any of this. Only thing I’d point to is I think Welker cratered more from the concussions than physical decline. I can’t speak to Decker’s history there, but I think it’s fair to say if he was completely toast, BB likely wouldn’t have given him a contract. And even if he is, it ain’t our money and it’s not preventing anything else from occurring. They need four games of coverage until JE comes back, not #1 coverage, just a viable option. I think there’s a good chance of that. Shit, they got more than that out of Austin Collie. Decker knows the system and I think that’s been the biggest flameout factor for these types of guys we’ve seen roll through.
You’re somehow mixing arguments here.
First, if you don’t like using counting stats, then why did you cite them? I already noted that they aren’t accurate for this kind of thing as the game has changed so much. AV I don’t particularly put a lot of weight into. I’ll admit I don’t subscribe to metrics of any kind all that much in football, but it seems particularly arbitrary to me and while it’s not ‘black box’ it kinda is (if that makes sense). Even it’s creator, in his explanation, cites (paraphrasing) ‘even if a player scores 16 it’s not necessarily meaning he was better than the guy with 14, but I’m confident a pool of 16s would be more valuable than a pool of 14s’. Huh? That’s not particularly helpful to me.
As to your bet, I’m not claiming any greatness out of him. Im saying his decline in numbers doesn’t particularly frighten me given the offenses hes been in in NY and Ten; I don’t care if he lasts until end of season, they need a warm body for four games; and given the time of the offseason, he’s a perfectly fine pick up for those needs. (And also that id have preferred Dez). So, I won’t be partaking in your side bet as I never claimed either of those things.
I have nothing relevant to the thread topic to add but I'm posting this anyways because it was, is, and always will be awesome:
It's always something. That's part of getting older.
There are loads of counter-examples to this, most recently David Harris (who got real money). I don't see the terms of Decker's deal anywhere, but I imagine the guaranteed money is minimal, commensurate with a guy from whom little is expected.
I agree with this.
Collie was 28 and had six catches in seven games.
I think this is overblown in both directions - Decker had one year in 2010 with McDaniels, his rookie year in which he missed rookie mini-camp and OTAs and barely played, then McDaniels got fired before the season ended. And none of the "he just didn't know the playbook" guys have flourished anywhere else; more likely they just weren't good. I don't think Decker has much of a leg up on random free agent X (and certainly not on guys like Britt and Dorsett who have some experience) but I also don't think this is a huge piece of the puzzle.
I think they have enough options at WR to find a combo that works, and the pass-catching RB and TE are strong, but this WR group isn't really good. A lot of names, not a lot of recent production. FWIW, among the WR on the roster, Decker had the most 2017 receiving yards with 563. If Edelman isn't all the way back post-injury/suspension, there might be some poor offensive performances this year.
I think it’s time for B.B. and JMcD to reinvent the offense. Again. This will be the year of 22 personnel!
Having no knowledge whatsoever of who else BB considered, "Shitty College" Decker seems like the low risk option. I don't think it's too hard to envision him being somewhat productive over a short period where his role is to not make mistakes and be where Brady expects him to be rather than to carry any real load.
Giving this more thought ... I think the reasons you suggest for why Decker (or Dez for that matter) would fit in this role are reasons that I'd rather use someone else. This WR group is old - Edelman is 32, Hogan turns 30 in October, Slater (FWIW) is almost 33, Britt turns 30 in September. Mitchell is only 25 but his knees are bad. I'd love to find a roster spot or two for a guy like Berrios (22), Dorsett (25), or even Riley McCarron, Devin Lucien, or Paul Turner (all 25). If they're not counting on a big game day role, it would be nice to get some youth on the roster.
The argument for Decker is he might be able to take on a bigger role than those young guys ... but I don't think it bodes well if we go down that road.
Look, when I say I don't like a statistic here it's not because I think it is useless. I don't like using only raw counting stats to evaluate players on offense because the game has changed over time. But it still provides context. AV is an attempt to do that. It's far from perfect. If I were making a presentation about the top 10 salty snack brands of all time I would list the raw dollar sales each one generated and then also have a metric that would give me the 2018 dollar amount for the older numbers. So yeah, I don't particularly like raw dollar sales as a metric but it's useful context. Because AV and football are a lot less clear cut than my example I can see your objection to most advanced stats.
Injuries into the 30's scare me. You don't have to proclaim anything. I like side-bets. Your conversation got me thinking about my opinion on Decker and what should be a reasonable expectation for him. I set a few goalposts one of which is making the opening roster for those four games you mentioned. Once a guy puts on the jersey I am hoping for the best and it's obvious the Pats are looking at more WRs due to injuries so it makes sense as a fit. They need bodies that can practice at this point.
You're right that I was, and I am sugar coating this while paraphrasing, blurring the lines between greatness and very good. I talked myself down a path that while possibly logical missed the point ironically in an attempt to say that because those examples are outliers anyway, even assuming you don't consider Welker a GOAT, that you missed the point. Sorry about that.
All good. I think we're all on same page, just mangling the words and avenues we're using to interact. The comments on Welker just struck me as very "Patriot colored glasses" so to speak.