Henry says part of the reason they traded prospects is because of their future contracts

Snodgrass'Muff

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From Tim Britton.

Would have stunk getting to December 2023 and have had trouble singing Moncada, best deal with that now.
That's not what he's saying. He's saying that they won't be able to sign all of the current young core to extensions, so they chose to focus on the 3 year window where they had them all under control and maximize the chances of winning with what they KNEW they had. Then trust the front office to build up the low cost controllable assets again.

It's a perfectly reasonable approach given the specific circumstances they are faced with.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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That's not what he's saying. He's saying that they won't be able to sign all of the current young core to extensions, so they chose to focus on the 3 year window where they had them all under control and maximize the chances of winning with what they KNEW they had. Then trust the front office to build up the low cost controllable assets again.

It's a perfectly reasonable approach given the specific circumstances they are faced with.
Nah, we hate ownership. What have they done for us lately?
 

the1andonly3003

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oh, so not a single one of JBJ/Mookie/Xander/Vazquez/Swihart were willing to take a long term deal that buys out their arb years?

oh so all 5 will walk in 3 years while we keep Panda, Hanley, Price (and an aging Pedey)?

great future for this Red Sox team
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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oh, so not a single one of JBJ/Mookie/Xander/Vazquez/Swihart were willing to take a long term deal that buys out their arb years?

oh so all 5 will walk in 3 years while we keep Panda, Hanley, Price (and an aging Pedey)?

great future for this Red Sox team
That's like 3 different straw men you are beating.
 

Byrdbrain

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oh, so not a single one of JBJ/Mookie/Xander/Vazquez/Swihart were willing to take a long term deal that buys out their arb years?

oh so all 5 will walk in 3 years while we keep Panda, Hanley, Price (and an aging Pedey)?

great future for this Red Sox team
Whenever I read something new that blows me away with it's stupidity I remember that someone last year asked if Steven Wright could sue Farrell for getting him hurt and the stupid thing I just read seems a bit less so.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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well, I'd like to know these young players on this roster that ownership can't afford to re-sign in 3 years
And I'd like to know where they will find the money to keep all of Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Rodriguez, Swihart, and Wright at or near market rates while Benintendi is getting expensive in arbitration and they are either still paying Price or are trying to extend Sale.

There won't be enough to keep the entire young core so maximizing the three year window was the most logical approach.

Literally no one is arguing that none of the big three could possibly sign an extension early or that they are going to extend Panda and Hanley. But none of the kids are signing a Longoria deal. They absolutely will get expensive.
 

curly2

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That's not what he's saying. He's saying that they won't be able to sign all of the current young core to extensions, so they chose to focus on the 3 year window where they had them all under control and maximize the chances of winning with what they KNEW they had. Then trust the front office to build up the low cost controllable assets again.

It's a perfectly reasonable approach given the specific circumstances they are faced with.
This part's going to be A LOT harder now, though. In the 2011 draft, the Sox just blew past the slotting recommendations, giving above-slot figures to Barnes, Bradley and Owens and HUGE overslot bonuses to Swihart and Betts. They can't do that anymore, nor can they blow other teams out of the water for players such as Moncada.

Dombrowski and Co. are going to have to be very smart with the draft (and probably, ideally, do it with low picks every year with this "window") and international signings.

Cherington did a lot of great things, and I'll buy him a beer for 2013 if I ever meet him, but he and his people had awful drafts in 2012 and 2013, and the penalty leading to international signing ban and voided contracts really hurt.

Dombrowski and his scouts and amateur people will have to earn his money to find cost-controllable assets for himself and his successor.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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This part's going to be A LOT harder now, though. In the 2011 draft, the Sox just blew past the slotting recommendations, giving above-slot figures to Barnes, Bradley and Owens and HUGE overslot bonuses to Swihart and Betts. They can't do that anymore, nor can they blow other teams out of the water for players such as Moncada.

Dombrowski and Co. are going to have to be very smart with the draft (and probably, ideally, do it with low picks every year with this "window") and international signings.

Cherington did a lot of great things, and I'll buy him a beer for 2013 if I ever meet him, but he and his people had awful drafts in 2012 and 2013, and the penalty leading to international signing ban and voided contracts really hurt.

Dombrowski and his scouts and amateur people will have to earn his money to find cost-controllable assets for himself and his successor.
Sure, and I"d be very surprised if the current FO can be as successful at building from within as Cherington and Theo were, but Dombrowski did have a significant amount of success there in Detroit when you actually think about it. JD Martinez, Andy Dirks, Nick Castellanos, Alex Avila, Anthony Gose and Rick Porcello all came from the farm in Detroit. So even if he didn't have a lot of success developing stars from within, he did graduate plenty of decent major league players while there.

But this team has its young stars and plenty of money year to year to spend on plugging holes as they move forward. So they don't need to be as good as Cherington was in building the current young core. They just need to extend some of them, produce from the farm as well as Dombrowski did in Detroit and use their money to keep being a really good team.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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If Devers and Groome approach their ceilings, and maybe a player like Travis becomes a line-up regular, the Sox might already have the inexpensive personnel to help the transition 3 years from now. You can't assume it, but the future cupboard isn't exactly bare. Plus, if they lose Price and Porcello, they'll have $50M plus to fill a couple of holes with.

Not exactly time to panic.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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This part's going to be A LOT harder now, though. In the 2011 draft, the Sox just blew past the slotting recommendations, giving above-slot figures to Barnes, Bradley and Owens and HUGE overslot bonuses to Swihart and Betts. They can't do that anymore, nor can they blow other teams out of the water for players such as Moncada.

Dombrowski and Co. are going to have to be very smart with the draft (and probably, ideally, do it with low picks every year with this "window") and international signings.

Cherington did a lot of great things, and I'll buy him a beer for 2013 if I ever meet him, but he and his people had awful drafts in 2012 and 2013, and the penalty leading to international signing ban and voided contracts really hurt.

Dombrowski and his scouts and amateur people will have to earn his money to find cost-controllable assets for himself and his successor.
They'll get some compensation from losing free agents in the future, which may help.

But I agree that team building is going to be much more difficult in the future as money can't create resources. In fact, it appears that top draft picks are going to be the most valuable assets going forward.
 

themactavish

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There's a big difference between saying that you won't be able to keep all of X and saying that you can't keep any of X. Surely they'll try to make judicious choices about which of their younger players are indispensable, and presumably they'll try to salvage as many as possible. Henry's comment shouldn't be taken as a goodbye to the whole bunch, just an admission that some are likely to depart.
 

MikeM

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sounds like Mookie and Xander are taking the Ellsbury/Papelbon route

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18513446/boston-red-sox-xander-bogaerts-mookie-betts-not-yet-looking-long-term-contracts

IIRC Ellsbury/Papelbon was the only 2 of the "last generation" of home grown players to leave via FA
I'm actually fairly good with that on Xander atm. Put me in down in the minority here that wouldn't be all-in on the idea of seeing him extended right now at some inflated and early market value contract like Elvis Andrus got. I'd want a better idea of what I'm actually buying long term first, and next year should go a long way towards determining if he's a legit keeper or simply somebody you enjoy your 6 years of low risk and non-premium costs on.

Barring a concern worthy setback in 2017, Betts I'll obviously be rooting to see them be a little more aggressive on going forward.
 

EricFeczko

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Sure, and I"d be very surprised if the current FO can be as successful at building from within as Cherington and Theo were, but Dombrowski did have a significant amount of success there in Detroit when you actually think about it. JD Martinez, Andy Dirks, Nick Castellanos, Alex Avila, Anthony Gose and Rick Porcello all came from the farm in Detroit. So even if he didn't have a lot of success developing stars from within, he did graduate plenty of decent major league players while there.

But this team has its young stars and plenty of money year to year to spend on plugging holes as they move forward. So they don't need to be as good as Cherington was in building the current young core. They just need to extend some of them, produce from the farm as well as Dombrowski did in Detroit and use their money to keep being a really good team.
DD has also had success building solid farm systems with two expansion teams: the expos and the marlins. Most of the marlins 2003 core was drafted by DD.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I'm actually fairly good with that on Xander atm. Put me in down in the minority here that wouldn't be all-in on the idea of seeing him extended right now at some inflated and early market value contract like Elvis Andrus got. I'd want a better idea of what I'm actually buying long term first, and next year should go a long way towards determining if he's a legit keeper or simply somebody you enjoy your 6 years of low risk and non-premium costs on.

Barring a concern worthy setback in 2017, Betts I'll obviously be rooting to see them be a little more aggressive on going forward.
I'd be pretty happy with a 3-4 win SS at $15 AAV for eight years. I'm not sure we should be bashing the Andrus contract. He had a couple down seasons but that contract is more than solid.
 

MikeM

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I'd be pretty happy with a 3-4 win SS at $15 AAV for eight years. I'm not sure we should be bashing the Andrus contract. He had a couple down seasons but that contract is more than solid.
Not sure how much I'm buying in there atm. His couple of down seasons as you put it were the 3 immediate years after signing that extension, before putting up a career year in season where offense also kinda exploded across the board.

Even so I included the inflated part because that contract was signed back in 2014, and similar extension for Xander today is likely to have a higher AAV then $15m. Which probably doesn't end up being worth locking yourself into a long term premium on imo if Xander ends up being more of second half of 2016 hitter then the first.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Not being snarky at all here, I thought it was a good post, but IIRC, JD Martinez went to Detroit in a trade with Houston. Just trying to get the facts correct. Thanks!
Actually, according to BBref Martinez signed as a free agent after Houston released him--the Tigers didn't trade for him.

Gose, OTOH, they did trade for--he was drafted by the Phillies and came to the majors with Toronto. You could sort of say that he "came from the farm" in the sense that Detroit got him by trading a homegrown prospect.

Dirks, Castellanos, Avila and Porcello are true, though.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Actually, according to BBref Martinez signed as a free agent after Houston released him--the Tigers didn't trade for him.

Gose, OTOH, they did trade for--he was drafted by the Phillies and came to the majors with Toronto. You could sort of say that he "came from the farm" in the sense that Detroit got him by trading a homegrown prospect.

Dirks, Castellanos, Avila and Porcello are true, though.
Yep. Nothing to say but mea culpa.
 

chrisfont9

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And I'd like to know where they will find the money to keep all of Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Rodriguez, Swihart, and Wright at or near market rates while Benintendi is getting expensive in arbitration and they are either still paying Price or are trying to extend Sale.

There won't be enough to keep the entire young core so maximizing the three year window was the most logical approach.

Literally no one is arguing that none of the big three could possibly sign an extension early or that they are going to extend Panda and Hanley. But none of the kids are signing a Longoria deal. They absolutely will get expensive.
I'd go so far as to say that they might still sign all of the big three. Henry is just pointing out that the odds of that aren't good, based on how these things usually go. But it's not like they won't try to do exactly that.
 

MikeM

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I'd go so far as to say that they might still sign all of the big three. Henry is just pointing out that the odds of that aren't good, based on how these things usually go. But it's not like they won't try to do exactly that.
Assuming one of the big 3 you are referring to there is Bradley I'm not so sure:

- Probaly ends up being a good but non-upper elite guy playing a premium position (so in FA terms somebody who ends up getting paid like he is elite)
- Boras as an agent
- would be playing out his age 30+ seasons after the 6 years are up. Not old, but he wouldn't be throw some of that caution to the wind young either.

Kinda the exact player I'd expect this FO to be viewing as odd man out when they play through the keeper game.
 
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Sampo Gida

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Not really sure I buy the reasoning. However, I do believe Henry is not happy with the performance of the team as a whole these past 8 years, having failed to either reach the post season or win a game in the post season in 7 of these 8 years. I think he really wants to go on a nice 2-3 year run and re-energize the fan base before rebuilding. JWH also likely recognizes that even top prospects don't always amount to a hill of beans.
 

Plympton91

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Henry might also be figuring he wants to go on a final 3 year joyride and then sell.
 

Leather

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It just sounds like candid commentary on how they construct their budget over the next 3-5 years. Rather than have young(ish) guys develop over the next three years and then, best case scenario, leave when they are at their peaks (because they won't be able to afford them if they meet expectations), they are cashing in those chips for cost controlled pieces to win in the next three years. And that's not to say they won't still have good young players in 3 years, just that they have a bit of a glut.

Also, there is always the possibility those prospects don't pan out, in which case it's a win, anyway.

At the end of the day, the Red Sox are a business. That they are even thinking 3 years ahead is a positive, even if that entails knowing some hard truths.