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Hayward’s recovery

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by Big John, Dec 22, 2018.

  1. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    Oh, I think there's plenty of blame to go around, and Stevens isn't immune. Certainly his handling of time outs is open to criticism. But Hayward's 30M for a player who is not contributing is a structural issue for this team. Kyrie's over-dribbling is another structural issue. As spectacular as some of Kyrie's plays are, the other guys tend to stand around when he starts dancing with the ball.

    I'm not standing on any ledges but watching Hayward I do not think he will ever be the player he was. If you do (to paraphrase Malcolm Reynolds) you're waiting for a train that just won't come. Moving a player like Hayward for expirings (and using some of the money to resign Marcus Morris) isn't a tear down because Morris is a better player.
     
  2. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    As others have noted, career averages are misleading. The Celtics didn't pay $30M a year for the player who averaged 5.4 ppg in his first year and 11.8 ppg in his second.

    In his last three games he's 3-15 from beyond the arc and 9-32 overall. And it's not as if he's racking up assists and rebounds to compensate for his abysmal shooting. And all of that happened after he sat out two games to rest.

    Please stop making excuses. I feel for his struggle to overcome that terrible injury, but it is what it is.
     
  3. BillMuellerFanClub

    BillMuellerFanClub Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    RE: Hayward's contract, If he's as bad as you claim him to be, no one is going to pick up that deal. The Celtics should not be trying to get anyone to take it, selling at the nadir of his career. The ONLY option with Gordon is to continue to let him play and get back into it. He deserves more patience considering the injury and being the most talented FA this team has signed in the last decade. Please, just stop.
     
  4. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Just out of curiosity, where did you get your medical degree?
     
  5. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    I'd be happy to hear the opinions of the resident M.D.s as to whether or not Hayward will return to his pre-injury form based on what they have observed on the basketball court.
     
  6. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    He is showing signs of it lately but missing a whole year it will take a while to get to where he was on a consistent basis. He won’t need to score 20 a game on this team, but his ability as an all-around playmaker and defender will get there. Paul George took a while to regain his form after his horrific injury as well. If you think he’d just step on the court and look like he did you were sorely mistaken.
     
  7. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    I doubt if Hayward's biggest issues are medical. I'm guessing they're psychological. And I don't really see many indications that he can return to pre-injury form. He had a good game against the Timberwolves, but that may be an outlier.

    Even if Hayward eventually returns to form, if you are asking me to choose between Hayward and Morris over the next 2-3 years, I'm taking Morris on pure basketball value.
     
  8. Spelunker

    Spelunker Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Just out of curiosity, where did you get your medical degree?
     
  9. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    And where did you get yours? My spouse is a doc, but that's the best I can do.

    I base my view of Hayward on observed performance over time.
     
  10. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Teams make trades to improve themselves. You'd have to receive Kyrie insurance that is better than Rozer while sending him to a team where he is better than their backup guard. Good luck finding that match.....I don't see it happening. If Rozier's reps demand a deadline deal it will likely be for a future 2nd rounder.
     
  11. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    His assist and rebound numbers this year are right in line with his best years in Utah.

    As for scoring: In Utah he took anywhere between 13 and almost 16 FGA in his last 4 years whereas he's averaging 9 FGA this year. He is averaging almost 4 less FTA in Boston than he did in his last 3 years in Utah. He is also averaging anywhere between 8 and 10 less minutes played per game this year compared to his peak Utah years. FG% he is down a few percentage points as well(40.5% FGA compared to anywhere between 43 and 47% from his last 3 Utah years). So, he's playing less minutes and taking less shots while shooting worse so of course his PPG is going to be down from his peak Utah years. He was the primary scoring option in Utah whereas in Boston he has to share the ball more with better scorers than he had in Utah.
     
  12. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    So the guy coming off the catastrophic injury on a max deal is basically untradeable and is the source of our problems. What do you recommend?
     
  13. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    Recommend? Maybe some GM agrees with the posters here and thinks Hayward can become the player he was. Washington is looking to blow things up. Who knows? If he can't be traded, cut his minutes until he starts playing better. There is no easy solution-- but there is no solution at all if you misidentify the problem.
     
  14. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    A couple of things to note here.

    1. It is pretty common for guys not to be fully healthy from the jump after a major injury. Paul George is one example. From football, Wes Welker and even perhaps Tom Brady in 2009 are others. Those are just names off the top of my head.
    2. Hayward unexpectedly had an additional surgery in May or June to removes some hardware that was bothering him. That meant he spent the summer rehabbing instead of his typical summer activities. Most NBA athletes spend their whole summers on a program prepping themselves physically for the season - I doubt they would bother if it made no difference.
    3. Perhaps instead of asking where you got your MD, I should ave been asking where you are licensed to practice psychology. You're basically arguing here that he is 100% (or close enough to that) physically, but has psychological issues that are not only severe enough to have him off of his game today, but are also unfixable.

    For all of this, your argument basically seems to boil down to: he's clearly not 100%, and if he isn't at that level now then he never will be.

    I guess I'm not aware of any reason (nor have you provided any) to actually believe that. It's possible, but the smarter bet would seem to be on a gradual return to (or close to) form.
     
  15. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Who is going to take his minutes? Are you really excited about more Semi?
     
  16. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    Well, there's no reason why Theis can't play some minutes at the 4 once Horford returns. Tatum and Brown could also play more minutes, and so could Rozier. One of their structural issues is that Tatum, Brown and Hayward play the same position.

    So where did the people who blithely assume that Hayward will become 100% of what he was in 2016-17 get their medical training? I could give you a long, long list of NBA players who tried to come back from injuries but were never the same, including great players like Grant Hill and Bernard King.

    No, I didn't mean to imply that he's 100% physically but not right mentally. He's neither at the moment, as far as I can tell.
     
  17. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    I agree that Ainge is in a very difficult position, and Hayward's relationship with Stevens doesn't make it any easier.
     
  18. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Trading Hayward would also be death for signing future FAs or stars you trade for.
     
  19. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    There's a middle ground between blithely assuming that Hayward will get back to 100% and blithely assumping the opposite (as you yourself are doing).

    I think it's possible he never gets back and also possible he does. More importantly, I don't think we've seen anything from him this season that could distinguish between those options.

    Your claim is something like... "if he was going to get back to 100% ever he should already be there now", and you've provided nothing whatsoever to support that position.

    I don't think what happened with Bernard King or Grant Hill is all that relevant, as I don't think doctors dealt with those injuries the same way back then that they do today.
     
  20. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    Yes, that's a fair criticism of my position. But I've seen nothing that leads me to believe that he will make it back 100%. There's something to be said for cutting losses if you believe the prognosis is poor.
     
  21. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, that’s 100% not happening.
     
  22. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    The question is, how do they cut their losses with Hayward? If he isn't worth his contract as you believe and other teams agree, what can Ainge do? Wouldn't it be better to see if he improves more as the season goes along? Given the salary cap and free agency ramifications, I am not sure what avenues you think are available to Ainge here.
     
  23. Big John

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    There are plenty of expiring contracts around the league.

    If there were some way to keep Hayward and also keep Marcus Morris without exposing the Celtics to the repeater tax, I'd be less hot to dump Hayward, but I can't see one. I think Morris is a better player than Hayward now, and Morris will be better than Hayward next year too.
     
  24. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    There is absolutely zero, as in nada, chance they can, even if they wanted to, trade Hayward this season for an expiring contract. It just doesn't work that way.

    Also, there is no way Danny would even attempt it, as it would really hurt Boston's image as a free agent destination for the near future. Having Morris will be a small consolation if it results in Kyrie and Horford walking and the Celtics are teaming Morris up with Brown, Tatum, Smart, Semi and unused cap space.
     
  25. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    I would hope that Gordon Hayward is pretty far down Ainge's list of things to worry about.
     
  26. Gash Prex

    Gash Prex Member SoSH Member

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    It’s unbelievable that any discussion is happening about Hayward - everyone said it would take months for him to get back (or even a full year). What’s the problem? It seems like a lazy criticism/easy talking point. He isn’t going anywhere, he isn’t being traded, cut etc...no point at all even spending another minute on it.
     
  27. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    No, it’s not unbelievable that people want to discuss Gordon Hayward. He obviously isn’t going anywhere so any talk of that seems pointless but his on court performance is certainly worthy of discussion.
     
  28. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Yes, but not in the sense of "OH GOD HE SUXXORS!!"

    And while that's hyperbole, the point is that people are discussing him like he's as healthy as he'll be and this is the new him. It's not.

    The would NOT have called that backdoor lob to him a few weeks ago. He's getting there.
     
  29. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    I mean yeah. Those posts are over-the-top but I think it’s perfectly fair game to discuss his performance, both positive and negative. He’s about where I expected so far. I was hoping for a little more progress but it’s far too early to be overly concerned but I don’t begrudge people for having concerns.
     
  30. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Agree until the last paragraph...they DID call that lob for him multiple times a few weeks ago, but he couldn't quite execute. The one tonight still wasn't as explosive as Old G, but the pass was better and there was no one to body him this time.
     
  31. Gash Prex

    Gash Prex Member SoSH Member

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    Ok you are correct - I did not mean "no discussion ever" but simply the discussion of trading or cutting him - or anything so drastic until next year. Of course his performance is relevant and discussion worthy.
     
  32. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    Breaking this discussion out of the 18-19 megathread.
     
  33. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    Here’s the glass half-empty view on Hayward:

    — The Jazz have been much better than expected since he left. That’s mostly Donovan Mitchell, but maybe GH was a tad overrated.

    — By all accounts, Paul George’s injury was worse than GH’s, but it’s the closest comp we have. It’s debatable whether PG13 ever regained his pre-injury form; his career certainly never got back on the trajectory it was on back in 2013-14.

    — Hayward’s long-term future is unknown, but he’s so far from his pre-injury form that it’s unrealistic to think we’ll see peak GH anytime this season.

    I think it’s silly to suggest that the GH we’ve seen so far is the GH we can expect to see forever, or that the C’s should do anything but ride it out and hope for the best. And to GH’s credit, he has embraced a lesser role commensurate with his present abilities, so he’s not hurting the team beyond the opportunity cost of giving him a max contract. But I do think some folks here are overdue to reset their expectations for GH for the next 18 months, and particularly for the balance of this season. We’re a lot more likely to see Jaylen regain his form or Tatum take a giant leap forward than we are to see vintage GH this season, or even next season.
     
  34. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Glass 3/4 full view

    Paul George's career has most certainly gotten back on track. After a slightly down year the year following his injury (sound familiar?) he has become an even better defender, and a better three point shooter. Last year and this have been his best statistical years. I mean, geez, the guy is averaging 26.5/8.5/4.5 while his team has been at the top of standings for a good month.
     
  35. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Isn't George basically playing at an MVP level so far this year? 26/8/4 while shooting 45% and 39% from downtown. He is actually what gives me hope on GH. I do think his injury cost him some athleticism that has never returned and he shot 42% his first full season back, which was probably a little rust. However, he's playing at a very high level this year. I think it's possible that next year is the year that GH starts showing some real improvement over the current version. It's not an apples to apples comparison since they are different players and GH's injury happened 3 years later but I remain hopeful that he'll get better.
     
  36. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    PG13 was arguably the league’s best wing defender prior to his injury. Advanced stats suggest he has regained that form this season, after being nowhere near that level since his injury. Color me skeptical. (As an aside, if PG13 truly is among the league’s best perimeter defenders again, LBJ fucked up by not jumping on the opportunity to bring him to LA.)

    Actually, among the bullet points in my “glass half empty” scenario above, it’s the first one that worries me most. I’m starting to think GH never was as good as we thought he was. He’ll still be a solid cog in the machine when his shot returns (which it eventually will), but that would mean we’d be fully dependent on Tatum to become the second star you need to field a legitimate championship contender.
     
  37. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I think it would require more sophistication than we have on this board to extrapolate Hayward's future ceiling from his current, post-injury level of performance, which people have been trying to do here lately.

    I don't think untrained people will be able to make that argument until well into next year.

    @maufman makes some different and more reasonable arguments - I think he lays out a reasonable half-empty view.
     
  38. radsoxfan

    radsoxfan Member SoSH Member

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    I would strongly disagree with this. PG's injury was gruesome, but carries a much much higher probability of returning to peak or near-peak form. Rarely a mid bone fracture won't heal right, but in a young healthy guy I would have bet the farm on him being ok long-term.

    Haywards injury carries an entirely different set of additional risks. To dislocate your ankle you are going to tear a bunch of ligaments, and they may scar insufficiently, leading to pain and instability. Additionally, his main fracture was likely within the ankle joint creating the risk of cartilage damage and postraumatic arthritis. And even if he escaped initial damage, any tiny offset at the joint can cause cartilage to wear down quickly.

    That Minnesota game in particular was good to see, and I think we're still aways away from knowing his full recovery. In my opinion the range of outcomes is still fairly large. But his injury was unfortunately both gruesome and could definitely limit his career for good.

    As far as trading him, I think it's a terrible idea for many reasons discussed above. The Marcus Morris talk is also silly. Even a limited version of Hayward still may be better than Morris will ever be. I'd way way rather have the chance of Hayward returning to near peak than a solid role player having a nice two month stretch. Does anyone think Morris is going to reach some never before seen All Star level?
     
  39. blick38

    blick38 Member SoSH Member

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    These kind of orthopedic joint injuries sometimes take about one and a half to 2 years to fully recover from. If you're in shape, got good genetics, perhaps you could recover more quickly.

    Irving's recovery amazes me. I also broke my kneecap, had the same figure eight, hollow screws and wire hardware to pull the patella back together. I ran marathons before my surgery, hiked big mountains, and skied . My surgery was 15 years ago. Perhaps my patella displacement was more severe, but I haven't even been able to jog across the street without pain, ever since this injury.
     
  40. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    I think you raise fair points. I, for one, was never expecting Hayward to be the 2nd star on a championship calibre team. Over the past decade, you're talking guys like Durant/Steph (depending on who you put #1), Kyrie, Klay/Draymond, Duncan/Kawhi, Wade/Bosh, Gasol, Pierce, etc. Clearly, he's not at that level but I do think he would have been a nice 3rd star. He's obviously not that guy right now but there's hope.

    Unfortunately, the Celtics have a decent amount riding on his recovery. If AD is open to both LA and BOS, then it becomes a bidding war, which means that Tatum and Brown are probably going the other way. In this scenario, the Celtics absolutely need to be able to convince AD that Hayward can be that 3rd scorer to take the pressure off of him and Kyrie. That'd be a tough sell right now.

    In the more realistic scenario of AD staying in New Orleans or going to LA, then we need Hayward to be 2A or 2B along with Tatum. Even if he physically never gets back to his 2016-2017 form, I fully expect his shooting to recover. Right now, he FG and 3PT FG %'s are well below career averages. His passing remains good so I agree with the comparison (forget who made it) of current Hayward to late stage Ginobili. That's obviously not a $30M player but it's still someone who has a good deal of value.
     
  41. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Doesn't all the evidence point to George wanting to stay in OKC and not a lack of Lebron wanting him to come to LA?
     
  42. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    I believe PG13 preferred his perch in OKC to going to Philly. I don’t believe for a second that he turned down a max-money offer to join LBJ in LA in favor of staying in OKC.
     
  43. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Utah was great last year, with Mitchell playing out of his mind, other guys progressing, and Rubio being decent. This year, with Mitchell regressing, they're a massive disappointment on both ends of the floor. If Hayward were 2017 Hayward right now, we would all be very, very happy people.
     
  44. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    Who's that guy on the Lakers that trumps GH? Kuzma and Ingram would be going the other way for a Lakers trade; even if they stayed, I don't see how they instill more confidence than GH.
     
  45. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    Based on what, though? All we heard was he was going to join LBJ in LA. Then he didn't.
     
  46. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Not sure what you are asking or what Mauf is saying.

    We know that Westbrook threw a huge party on June 30, and shortly after midnight (when FA started) PG announced he was staying. https://thunderousintentions.com/20...rook-hosting-party-okc-paul-george-attending/

    It's pretty likely LAL never got to make a formal offer, so technically he's right that he never turned down a LAL offer.

    However, if Mauf is saying that if PG had waited, LAL wouldn't have given him a max offer, well I disagree with that. If PG had wanted to be in LA, he would have gotten a max offer. http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...ell-westbrook-hosting-summer-hype-house-party
     
  47. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Agree with this. Let’s not confuse the “official start to FA” with discussions that agents and GM’s around the league have prior to the bell ringing at midnight.
     
  48. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Won’t they have max space this summer? Sign FA (Kemba?) and then trade for AD if/when he turns down contract from New Orleans.
     
  49. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    How many bad performances by Hayward do we have to watch before folks start realizing that Mook is a better player?
    Sure, Hayward was an all-star--once, two years ago-- and Morris will never be. But that was then, this is now.

    There's an opportunity cost to letting Hayward rehab himself at $300K per game.
     
  50. Montana Fan

    Montana Fan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Mook is starting and finishing BigJohn. Who and what are you arguing against. That Hayward should be sent to the G league? Or perhaps they should just cut him.
     

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