Hayward to Boston...Really, We Mean It
- Thread starter sox311
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I won't naysay your optimism, but the Celtics won both games against the Jazz this year, by 11 at home in January and by 8 in SLC in February. The Celtics were 17-13 (57%) against the western conference while Utah was 31-21 (60%); against the Eastern conference, Boston was 36-16 (69%) and Utah, 20-10 (67%). I'm not saying you can't build an argument that they'll be better next year assuming Hayward re-signs, but this past year it was pretty clearly a push at best.
George Hill missed like 30 games this year. When Hill played, their winning percentage was 67%.
Think the two teams are pretty close.
They play basketball all winter. How much are they home enjoying the mild winters?
If he signs in Boston he likely lives in some fancy place during the season and gets in a car in a parking garage--he's not digging out some Ford Focus that a snowplow blocked in like a guy that needs to get to the office.
All morning and afternoon? On day games you have morning shootaround about 11am and the afternoon off. Non-game days you've got practice at 10 or 11am and the rest of the afternoon and evening off.
Hayward is a guy who signed an offer sheet with the Charlotte Hornets with Al Jefferson as its best player while starting Josh McRoberts at the 4, Gerald Henderson at the 2. His agent correctly negotiated the best deal for him and his family 3 years ago....without winning NBA games as much of a compensating factor.
Knowing fully Utah would match. The RFA market is all about gamesmanship; it would have benefitted Utah if he couldn't find a max deal, so they made him go out and find one. There was a 0% chance he was going to Charlotte and he, and the Utah front office, knew it.
This is a great point. Charlotte also benefits but showing their fan base "commitment" since locking up that deal for 3-days doesn't hurt them since nobody of significance was signing there anyway. I just lowered our chances to 10% now that you helped me recognize he had no intentions of leaving Utah.
He has never had cause to consider the possibility of leaving Utah before. It never existed.
The bottom line is that Utah is a very good team and his current home. The Celtics are an equally good team, would be a better team with Hayward, and have more pieces that could help put together a true contender at some point in his next contract. Both are very desirable destinations, and I think it's much closer to a coin flip than anything else. That accounts for the home town advantage.
Think of it this way. If Hayward were coming from some other team, how likely do you think it is he would pick signing with Utah over Boston? I think they would be about 10% in that scenario. The coin flip I'm predicting accounts for comfort, home, etc. factors pretty heavily.
I mean, it's still kinda a dick move on the Jazz's part though, right? If they truly considered him a cornerstone player, why not just offer the max themselves straight up instead of forcing him to go negotiate around the league for it. I highly doubt it caused enough bad blood to impact his decision today, but I also dont think it overly endeared him to their FO.
I'm leaning towards being more optimistic on this whole situation. There's been so much smoke around this guy and the C's for a long time now.
I agree it seems a stretch on the the face of it, but if push comes to shove I'm of the opinion Lebron won't stay in Cleveland to run it back and (potentially) get beat 4-1 again by GSW. That said, I was actually thinking more in terms of his ability to pull yet another star to him. I'm not ignorant to the Cav's salary cap challenges, but a trade of Love for Paul George or sign and trade for HeWouldPlayWithBron plus some more ring chasing vets gets them closer. Love is very very good but George and Heywood are both younger and better, and all it would take is for one of them to indicate they want to go to put the balls in motion.
I just don't know about this. We have a hard-nosed group of B+ players, a promising 20 year old JB and a hopefully future star 19 year old PG plus NJ '18. The Jazz have an A(+?) in Gobert and a hard-nosed group of B/B+ players. Would you trade the potential of Jaylen and Fultz for the reality (and potential) of Gobert plus whatever Utah drafts over the next two years? In a way that's essentially the bet you are asking him to make for his long term.
The Jazz's own picks should be comparable to the Celtics own picks so I'm not sure that's an advantage for Utah anyway. Add in the Memphis pick and the others, and Boston clearly has an advantage in picks even without the Nets pick.
Boston also have overseas assets in Yabu and Zizic. Not sure if the Jazz do. They are pretty much relying on Exum developing or getting lucky with a mid 20 pick to add impact talent. Trey Lyles could still develop into something too I guess.
Gobert is pretty much their only advantage and I'm not sure how much more developing he has to do. He is going to be 25 this month. He has to be pretty close to peak. If he really has the talent to take another step forward and does so, he's a top 5-10 player in the league.
Boston also have overseas assets in Yabu and Zizic. Not sure if the Jazz do. They are pretty much relying on Exum developing or getting lucky with a mid 20 pick to add impact talent. Trey Lyles could still develop into something too I guess.
Gobert is pretty much their only advantage and I'm not sure how much more developing he has to do. He is going to be 25 this month. He has to be pretty close to peak. If he really has the talent to take another step forward and does so, he's a top 5-10 player in the league.
The Celtics won 53 games, earned the first seed, made it to the conference finals, and are adding the #1 pick in a strong draft plus they have a likely top 5 pick next year.
The Jazz won 51 games and lost in the conference semifinals.
Both teams weren't competitive in their losses, although the Celtics were without their best* player while getting destroyed whereas the Jazz have no such excuse.
The Celtics would be adding Hayward to the team they fielded last year. The Jazz would be running out the same squad.
Hayward and Gobert are the two best players on either roster. But, the Jazz just aren't as good as the Celtics now and seem unlikely to ever be. They also have a tougher path to the finals. If Hayward wants a shot at a ring, this should be an easy choice. The people who are arguing otherwise seem to be missing the key fact that Hayward played for the Jazz last year. This is much like how people argued OKC was better than the Celtics a year ago so why would Durant consider Boston. As this year bore out, the Celtics (plus Horford) were a much better team than was OKC minus Durant.
*It's somewhat debatable if IT is the best player in Boston. He also wasn't technically out all series, but it seems clear that he wasn't himself even when he was playing in the first 2 games.
I do agree that the asset pile advantage in the Celtics hands, plus the presence of the GSW juggernaut out west, mean Hayward has a somewhat better chance at glory in Boston. The bolded piece would give me pause in his shoes as its such a star driven league and you already have one on your current team. I'm with @JCizzle though, as it was a pretty dick move on their part with Charlotte and I'm hoping it bites them. Lucchino would have approved but he got the Padres and Red Sox to the World Series so what do I know.
Edit- the retweeted picture didn't show up. Hayward's wife posted an instagram of their daughter wearing what appears to be a Celtics shirt (green shamrock and "go green"
Mrs. HeyWould wearing green. Its a lock!
http://www.rantsports.com/clubhouse/files/2015/01/robynvanvliet.jpg
http://www.rantsports.com/clubhouse/files/2015/01/robynvanvliet.jpg
Probably because as always internet people are the worst and the comments were full of assholes.
Gordon probably took the picture too. Maybe I'm reading too much into it but I'm feeling far more confident about Hayward coming to Boston now. Most of the comments I saw were "oh no he's going to Boston."
I just have a hard time imagining a father using his two year old daughter to send out that message for no benefit to either his career or his family. My brother has three young daughters and even after his business partner cheated him out of his side of the business he did everything he could to hide it from his kids and avoid upsetting them. Do you all really think that Hayward would want to bring the wrath of jilted Utah fans on his two year old kid?
Whether he stays in Utah or leaves, the shirt is just a coincidence.
Looks like she subsequently sent out a non-Celtics related rationale for the shirt, saying it was a St. Patty's Day shirt. I can't find the original post on her IG account anymore
I actually think his daughter's shirt's a really bad sign for the Celtics.
If Hayward's so thrifty that he's buying his kids off-brand, Chinatown Celtics gear, there's no way he's leaving money on the table.
If Hayward's so thrifty that he's buying his kids off-brand, Chinatown Celtics gear, there's no way he's leaving money on the table.
I'm totally following Hayward's wife's instagram now. If I see that kid wearing a Thelonius Monk or Max Roach t-shirt the Celtics are screwed.
The off-season can't happen soon enough.
The off-season can't happen soon enough.
Well they are Utah fans and presumably Mormons. So just what kind of wrath are you expecting?
"Hey young lady....I am very very upset at your father, But YOU are a cutie patootie!"
Zach Lowe, Windhorse, and Shelborn were on Lowe's podcast a few days ago talking about about "back-channel" communications. Specifically about GMs/Assistant Coaches who are still involved in the playoffs being contacted by "consultation firms" about their future employment. Joking that they should open a consulting firm. But also about players. These guys/gals hear things and no what happens in the NBA, so there is some sort of communication going on, you wonder if Boston has had contact with Hayward yet.
Windhorse was pretty snippy with Ramona when she emphatically proclaimed taht that Mozgov had his first contact with the Lakers at 12:01AM when signing could begin.
Windhorse was very short with he as if saying "you can't be that naive Ramona, and I know who talked to who and they had it all done but the signature, you are blind Ramona." I can't stand the guy, but he is right, and you could tell, he was blown away by Ramona either playing dumb, or being that naive.
Listening to Lowe complain about being away from his family every podcast, which he also got Beck to complain about his job recently, annoys me to all hell, but these guys are plugged in, and what they often let slip out things they shouldn't. You can always tell they hold back a lot of info.
Windhorse was pretty snippy with Ramona when she emphatically proclaimed taht that Mozgov had his first contact with the Lakers at 12:01AM when signing could begin.
Windhorse was very short with he as if saying "you can't be that naive Ramona, and I know who talked to who and they had it all done but the signature, you are blind Ramona." I can't stand the guy, but he is right, and you could tell, he was blown away by Ramona either playing dumb, or being that naive.
Listening to Lowe complain about being away from his family every podcast, which he also got Beck to complain about his job recently, annoys me to all hell, but these guys are plugged in, and what they often let slip out things they shouldn't. You can always tell they hold back a lot of info.
When there's a Thelonius Monk sighting in a SoSH thread you know that we are in range of the Lester FA thread.
How deep does the burn go for a championship in Hayward? I guess deep enough to come here.
I sent my crystal balls out for resurfacing,
So I'll just guess...
I sent my crystal balls out for resurfacing,
So I'll just guess...
In reading her stuff I am always struck that Shelborn is a cross between a homer and a mouthpiece. I know ESPN needs a number of those (especially in the big markets) but she brings absolutely nothing to the table that I have observed.
Jordan SchultzVerified account @Schultz_Report 35m35 minutes ago
#Celtics slight favorite to land forward Gordon Hayward, per sources. Appeal is to play for a contender, as well as Brad Stevens.
#Celtics slight favorite to land forward Gordon Hayward, per sources. Appeal is to play for a contender, as well as Brad Stevens.
Once the Commissioner signs here, who will want to come here and play for the minimum and do we have the MLE and who are likely candidates for that?
Pretty sure they can't sign Hayward without moving one of Crowder, Bradley or Smart anyway. I'm personally hoping they trade AB for Richaun Holmes.
I think you may be right, which means we could see a draft day deal if Danny is feeling pretty confident about his chances.
The Celtics don't need more draft picks this year. They are already looking at adding 3 rotation rookies. They can probably get a better return by trading for future picks plus not having to deal with the uncertainty of not knowing Hayward's decision.
If the Celtics sign Hayward using cap space, they'd have to renounce the MLE. They'd only have the room exception, which is roughly half the MLE. Unlikely to get anyone of significance for that, you'd likely be looking at a Jerebko 11th man type.
