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Harper to Phillies for 13 years, 330M, no opt-outs

Discussion in 'MLB Discussion' started by DeadlySplitter, Feb 28, 2019.

  1. EvilEmpire

    EvilEmpire Dope Staff Member Dope

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    It is a tough town. Maybe more about effort than outright results though. I think if Harper plays hard he'll be fine. He can't afford to slack in the field anymore, that's for sure.
     
  2. CoffeeNerdness

    CoffeeNerdness Member SoSH Member

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    What would ever give you the impression that Scott "Mystery Team" Boras would be bending the truth?
     
  3. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Each case is different and I don’t really know the specifics but I know that generally in recent years there is a year or so delay between a new exciting team and increased attendance.
     
  4. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    I think it’s perfectly reasonable for a top 20 hitter in baseballl to get $25 million a year. The owners are vastly underpaying the players. Glad Harper was able to set the floor for when all those you listed come up in the next couple years.

    That said, as a result of Bryce Harper and the Nationals, baseball just lost 3 young fans this winter. My oldest came home from school and said, “screw baseball. We’ll just watch college softball all spring instead.”

    If the GMs want to ring on an era of rotisserie MLB, they’ll end up with a generation that has the same loyalty to the sport as I do to players in Draft Kings.
     
  5. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    You know, you might be right. The city totally favors the Eagles. Phillies are big when they contend but always are second to the Eagles. The gap between football and baseball is narrower in Boston.
     
  6. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    I was watching a bloooper reel of his play in the field last season and a lot of it just was bad jumps and bad routes. He looked like you’d expect a converted catcher to look out there. Maybe he should just switch to 1B. A $25 million AAV sn’t terrible for that position.
     
  7. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

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    Baseball may be the #4 sport there. Well, at least before the signing. That's a football city, through and through.
     
  8. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    Trout would have been perfect in Philly. Harper could screw it up if he acts like a prima donna. But he can get dirty, too, and Philly fans like guys who play hard.
     
  9. azsoxpatsfan

    azsoxpatsfan lurker

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    I agree it’s reasonable I was arguing that he’s not a top five hitter, not that he wasn’t worth the contract. And I hope for your kids sake that Juan Soto continues to rake and can replace Harper as their favorite player. I was six and Nomar was my favorite player when he was traded from the Sox and I remember thinking I was going to hate baseball for the rest of my life
     
  10. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    Interesting. Flyers have been mediocre for too long. They are No. 4. With the excitement around the young 76ers, hoops is No. 2 until the team is eliminated.
    Harper has a big challenge ahead of him. But this Phillies team got a lot better this winter even before Harper came aboard. Baseball could be No. 1 this summer into October.
     
  11. YTF

    YTF Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    9,321
    That would mean putting Rhys Hoskins back into the outfield. I say let the first baseman play first base and the outfielder play the outfield.
     
  12. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Morosi just tweeted LAD offered 4/180, FWIW.
     
  13. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

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    PA has a state income tax rate of 3.07% (although this is a flat rate)

    CA has a state income tax, top end, of 12.3%, but that allows for deductions.

    Philly (or South Jersey) isn't the poorhouse, but still lower property values that the good parts of Socal.

    I can see why Bryce took the Phillies offer.
     
  14. santadevil

    santadevil Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    As an accountant, I love when people bring up the taxes.

    As a fan, I've never once heard a player based his decision on the tax aspect of where they play, so it's fairly annoying to see it posted on just about every major contract

    There have been rumblings about guys that play in Canada and having exchange rate issues, but they're still paid in $USD
     
  15. Pandarama

    Pandarama lurker

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    Robbie Cano’s Mariners jersey seemed like a safe buy once.
     
  16. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    Not to sound like a dink, but I’m guessing your kids will get over it. We all had stars we have loved leave or get traded. Nomar, Bledsoe, Vaughn, etc. free agency is nothing new. We all root for laundry end of day.
     
  17. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Again, Bryce adverse to downstream performance/injury risk. And that’s probably the right assessment on his part.
     
  18. Spelunker

    Spelunker Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    You, of course, are an excellent role model and have only worked at one company for your entire career.
     
  19. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    To get his desired total of 300 mil over 10, he basically thinks that 6/120 won’t be there in 4 years. He took the largest pile of cash he could get.
     
  20. ehaz

    ehaz Member SoSH Member

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    If Dombrowski offered 13/330 to Mookie right now would he take it?
     
  21. Spacemans Bong

    Spacemans Bong chapeau rose SoSH Member

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    Attendance always lags performance by at least a season and the Phillies have sucked for years. Any granular look at their attendance shows they averaged well over 30,000 while in first place this July and August. They led the NL in attendance three times in the 2010s, I truly doubt there has been some profound change in the way Philly fans view baseball.
     
  22. Soxfan in Fla

    Soxfan in Fla Member SoSH Member

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    Hell no. Not when he can get 10/350 or better.
     
  23. glennhoffmania

    glennhoffmania but still failing Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    We've gone through this several times in the past. This isn't how it works at all.

    Plus what Santa said.
     
  24. singaporesoxfan

    singaporesoxfan Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Yup. And the idea that property cost differences between Philly and LA would play any sort of role in the decision seems unlikely to me. High-end LA property is definitely much more expensive, but we’re talking about a guy making $25m a year. At those levels of wealth you’re simply not spending 30% of your annual salary on a mortgage or rent. If an apartment in Rittenhouse Square or a posh mansion on the Main Line saves him $5m compared to their LA equivalents how much is that really factoring into his decisions? Particularly if he can likely sell off said apartment or mansion at the end of his career for about however much he bought it for.
     
  25. glennhoffmania

    glennhoffmania but still failing Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Let's also keep in mind that these guys often don't live full time in the city in which they play, and in a lot of cases one of the primary motivations is to simply get the biggest contract for reasons other than monthly budgeting. I once had a conversation with a guy who was high up in the Sox organization (I posted about it at the time) and we discussed this issue. He said that Pedroia is rare in that he just wanted to stay in Boston, he got more money than he could ever spend, and he didn't care about setting the market. For a lot of guys setting the market is a big deal and it doesn't matter where they do it.
     
  26. Adrian's Dome

    Adrian's Dome Member SoSH Member

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    I can't remember the EXACT exchange, but I remember Pedroia being interviewed and asked a question regarding his feelings on the Cano contract and his feelings toward it compared to his own and if he felt like he missed out on an opportunity for a bigger payday, and his reply was something along the lines of "are you serious? I'm rich as fuck".

    I will forever love Pedey.
     
  27. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    I would have to guess that from PHI's POV, the last three or so years was for cap purposes. It makes sense since they want to win soon to push the AAV down for cap purposes and worry about 2030 when that year arrives.
     
  28. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    Phillies official said today they have sold 100,000 tickets since the Harper news broke.

    https://www.philly.com/phillies/phillies-tickets-bryce-harper-signs-contract-20190301.html
     
  29. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    They probably had that press release written and queued to go out within 5 minutes of the signing
     
  30. terrynever

    terrynever Member SoSH Member

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    Not a press release. Article from philly.com.
     
  31. gedman211

    gedman211 Member SoSH Member

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    Can I get a guarantee that mid-30s Mookie doesn't look like mid-30s McCutchen?
     
  32. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    • There are no guarantees. But he may be the best player this side of Trout, and you’re not getting him on a contract that gets you out of the Betts business around age 30 unless you’re willing to go north of 40 for AAV. So you’re probably looking at 5 for 225, and that’s assuming he’s willing to do a shorter term deal. So pick your poison. Unless you’re willing to let him walk.
    The LaD offer to Bryce will reverberate.
     
  33. glennhoffmania

    glennhoffmania but still failing Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    So you're going to ignore the fact that he isn't a FA for two years?
     
  34. SemperFidelisSox

    SemperFidelisSox suzyn SoSH Member

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    If Mookie is gonna cost 10/350, they should have just signed Harper and let Mookie walk.
     
  35. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    No, and I suppose if your strategy is win one more WS and tear down, that is fine.

    But if that is not the strategy, one has to ask which of the players now with the team is worthy of a big investment.

    The market has adjusted, but it’s only going to get more expensive with Betts. Machado and Harper were not “clean”; both had problems that diminished their value. Betts is superior to both.
     
  36. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    26,624
  37. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Yes. Based on a "news" release from the Phillies.


    That info isn't public info. Whether they sold 5000 or 250000 tix, there was a press release going out with a fancy number on it.
     
  38. glennhoffmania

    glennhoffmania but still failing Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I'm sorry but saying that it'll take 5/225 to extend anyone who still has two years til FA sounds absurd to me.
     
  39. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    It's a higher class version of the problem NY had with Cano, they were screwed if they let him go and screwed if they signed him to a massive deal. The difference is that Betts is a lot more likely to live up to a 10/350 deal than Cano was to his 10/240 deal but that kind of commitment is scary no matter who it is.
     
  40. glennhoffmania

    glennhoffmania but still failing Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Sure but Cano was a free agent. The idea that it would take 45m per year to buy out 2 arb years and 3 FA years just doesn't make any sense to me. Maybe I'm completely wrong. I just can't imagine that would even be something to discuss.
     
  41. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Another poster wanted to avoid Betts’ 30s. If that’s your goal with a short term contract, that’s probably what it’s going to take. I don’t know why he would sell himself short. He is 2 years removed, but he is a better player than Harper.

    I suppose Mookie may be extremely risk averse, and maybe the Sox can use that to their advantage. But Harper was extremely risk adverse. That’s why he took a haircut of $20 MM in AAV compared to the Dodgers offer ... 45 v 25.

    And you basically have a year to get this done, less really. If we’re sitting here a year from now under the current contract, he is hitting free agency.
     
  42. DanoooME

    DanoooME Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    15,043
    They signed Robertson to close and they have a potentially sneaky good bullpen overall. On the other hand their rotation is Nola, Arrieta, Velazquez if he can stay healthy, and x, x. Keuchel makes so much more sense for them than Kimbrel.
     
  43. Lowrielicious

    Lowrielicious Member SoSH Member

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    3,796
    Pivetta is no slouch. FIP better than his not great ERA and will have improved defense behind him in Segura. They’re pretty solid all around really.
     
  44. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I read a good runthrough on them post-Harper (probably on The Athletic?), they could use Keuchel but their big issue is team defense, and one of the main worries there is Harper in RF after his awful year last year. They traded Santana so they could move one terrible OF to 1B (Hoskins) but that doesn't help too much if Harper is just as bad, so they need him to get back to at least adequate.
     
  45. axx

    axx lurker

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    6,062
    Saw speculation that Harper was dogging it on defense last season to avoid injury before the big payday.
     
  46. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Saw it as well. Let’s assume he was dogging it on the basepaths as well.

    If all that is true, then Scott Boras must have had a senior moment because his discussion of Harper’s ability to transition to first base was not at all helpful and viewed as confirming a meltdown in the outfield.
     
  47. Remagellan

    Remagellan Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    6,620
    Listening to his introductory press conference, it seems that the length of the contract was the most important thing to him and his wife. They both talked about starting a family soon and wanting a place where they can raise their kids. When he talked about his contract, Harper said, "this will take me to age 39" in a way that seemed to indicate that he doesn't see himself playing much past that age. They're both Mormon, and a beautiful new temple just opened up here a couple of years ago, and that might have played into it as well. But I bet if the Nats had gone to 13 years, he would have stayed there, because between the full no trade clause and the lack of opt outs in his contract, it's clear he and his wife just want to be in one place for the rest of his career, and that's exactly what Philly offered.
     
  48. h8mfy

    h8mfy lurker

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    What struck me is when he said (paraphrasing) that from the minute he was drafted he had been asked about where he’d play next and he really didn’t like that endless speculation. This contract eliminates that for a long while.
     
  49. TheYaz67

    TheYaz67 Member SoSH Member

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    Have seen several recent stories that pegged the state & local tax hit for Harper's $330M deal with the Phillies at about $17 million, while the tax hit on instead taking SF's offer of $310M would have resulted in state and local taxes of $28M. Given that after taxes (fed, state & local) and payment to his agent he will see less than $180M of that $330M, actually $11M seems like a "real" number that might as least factor into your decision.... For most other players though that get more "modest" contracts, yeah, the amount of their offers are not going to bring taxes much into play...
     
  50. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    How does the state and local tax work if you are released with 3 years remaining, and forcibly retired, move to Florida, and collect the end of your contract sipping beers in the marina at your mansion? Do you still pay taxes as if you were on the team and “working” in the state where your away games take place?
     

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