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Hanley DFA'd (5/25 Update)

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Pozo the Clown, Feb 20, 2018.

  1. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    It's been suggested in other threads that there should be a separate Hanley thread, so I'm taking the bull by the horns. There's been some wildly varying opinions on what becomes of Hanley in 2018, from DFA'ed before camp breaks to hitting 3rd in the order. It should be an interesting ride.

    So far, Hanley's saying all of the right things:

    “Looks like you guys are more worried about my at-bats than winning a championship,” Ramirez said. “I don’t know why. Me and JD trained together in Florida. We have a good relationship. We just want to win. That’s good. It’s not about me. It’s not about the at-bats. That is not on my mind, about the at-bats. You know what’s on my mind? Winning. That’s it. Common sense. Nothing else matters.”

    https://nesn.com/2018/02/hanley-ram...-j-d-martinez-will-get-red-sox-fans-fired-up/

    Have at it folks!
     
  2. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Hell yeah, El Trece. That’s all the post-JDM statement I need.

    Glad to see us return to a deep depth approach, too, especially after DD’s gotten a reputation for being a stars-and-scrubs guy.

    Only possible casualty I see is that we might not be able to see Swihart, utilityman extraordinaire. It’d go a long way toward extending the window if we could establish him as a major leaguer this year, which means Leon’s the next to go.
     
  3. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    I won't go as far as to say this was why they signed him, but I'm sure it wasn't lost on DD that signing Martinez greatly increased the chances of saving 22 mil on Hanley's option next year.
     
  4. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    Re-signing Moreland also plays into this. If Hanley hits, Hanley plays. If he doesn't, Moreland gets more ABs and the option doesn't vest. Greatly minimizing the worst-case scenario of an unproductive Hanley racking up enough at-bats to lock in the $22M for '19.
     
  5. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Saying it and actually meaning it when the games start counting can obviously be two different things, but it does sound like a lot of us might have not have given Hanley enough credit this winter at fully comprehending the surrounding realities of his current situation (starting with the fact he might realize his days of making anything near $22m/per are ending either way)

    If he's going to be happy and content with a platoon it can work, and it will probably be nice having a bigger bat on the bench when I'm screaming at the TV for Cora to PH for Leon/Vaz.
     
  6. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I wonder if part of the reason DD targeted Moreland is that he explained this potential situation, and Moreland accepted it, for the right contract. For all the bullshit about the "lack of fun" on the team, Moreland did seem to enjoy himself last year.
     
  7. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    Seems likely. That guaranteed 2nd year may have been what it took.
     
  8. The Gray Eagle

    The Gray Eagle Member SoSH Member

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    Hanley's our first baseman till further notice. He'll probably get hurt at some point, and we'll be glad we have Moreland. Hanley will get plenty of days off. If he is hitting poorly at midseason he will be benched or DFA'd. If he hits, he will play until hurt.

    Moreland got a 2-year deal for significantly more money than Nunez in an offseason when guys like Morrison and Duda were still unsigned. He should have no complaints if he ends up being a part-timer this year.
     
  9. brandonchristensen

    brandonchristensen mad photochops SoSH Member

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    Nice quote by Hanley. When he’s raking, our lineup is on another level. I would love him to dominate but don’t expect it.

    It’s wild how Sandoval and his signing really handcuffed our spending for a few years.
     
  10. Hank Scorpio

    Hank Scorpio Member SoSH Member

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    Between:

    1: A healthy Hanley shows he can still rake, gets his 497+ PA, and is back next season.

    2: Hanley struggles, loses significant time to Moreland, and isn’t back next season. Maybe he’s DFA if he really sucks or starts mouthing off about lack of PAs.

    I think I prefer option 1.
     
  11. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    Mitch Moreland has been not only a better player but a better hitter than Hanley Ramirez two of the past three years. I'm really puzzled as to why so many folks are assuming that Hanley's the starter and Moreland will be getting table scraps for starts.
     
  12. TheYaz67

    TheYaz67 Member SoSH Member

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    I think the fact that Moreland has had those better numbers, despite not being the veteran "star", means Cora should have the flexibility to sit Hanley b/c of splits and/or bad individual pitcher matchup for him (based on previous at bats) and not have to hear alot of whining from Hanley (I hope) - would help if Moreland also has a good start, which would justify him continuing to get plenty of ABs as the 1B...
     
  13. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    While I doubt Moreland will be relegated to mere table scraps when it's all said and done (I believe that Cora will nicely utilize that roster depth that chawson points out up thread), Cora proclaiming Hanley as his #3 hitter (albeit, qualified with "right now") tends to indicate that Hanley will be given an early opportunity to show whether he's healthy and capable of raking.

    http://www.weei.com/articles/bradford-alex-cora-sure-seems-all-hanley-ramirez
     
  14. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    I guess the best way to use Moreland is day games after night games and/or once a week. And also as a defensive replacement after the 6th or so.

    It is a really odd situation. Moreland is basically being paid like Chris Young was to be a 4th outfielder - only you don't need to spell your 1st baseman very often.

    I just don't see this situation lasting. Particularly if Mitch goes on one of his two bagging runs.
     
  15. Hank Scorpio

    Hank Scorpio Member SoSH Member

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    Moreland has been more consistent, but Hanley’s ceiling is really high if he’s healthy and focused. At least theoretically.
     
  16. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Yet in the last two of those years Moreland as a hitter has been notably below average, and Hanley is only one year removed from putting up season #'s there is no grounded reason to believe Moreland can.

    You are right though that they didn't sign Moreland to that two year deal to be a defensive 1B sub. If Hanley ends up taking the job full time it's going to be something that has to play out over the course of the season, and I'm guessing the whole "he's my #3 hitter" just amounts to Cora making the timely effort to point out that he still expects Hanley to be a big part of this team when he does get a chance to play.

    Did initially come off strange when first hearing it though, since I'm still digesting the idea that we would actually keep both in a platoon type situation.
     
  17. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    An OPS+ of 99 is "notably below average"?
     
  18. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Listen, we're still in best shape of my life season. Anything anyone's saying on February 20th is fluff.

    You can tell some things players say is genuine (Hanley strikes me as someone who speaks from the heart), but let's not forget that these guys go through media trainings designed to obscure their true sentiments from the press. Cora saying "He's my #3 hitter" could mean anything from "We still haven't officially signed J.D. Martinez yet" or "We'd love to show other teams that Hanley is healthy and we value him highly" to "I'm making the decision to start Hanley the full 158 games he says he wants to play at first base."

    Moreland was hitting .282/.379/.483 before the toe injury and plays great defense, and we also have Sam Travis, who excels at Moreland's primary deficiency. There's no reason to conclude that this team is done making moves.
     
    #18 chawson, Feb 21, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2018
  19. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    In terms of where he ranks in comparison to all the other first baseman? Yeah, I'd say so.

    There is obviously little guarantee that 2016 Hanley shows up in 2018, but in the event he did things could definitely get interesting (off course by then we'd be outside the danger zone of realistically having his option vest, as it's not like Moreland wouldn't be starting off with a lot of rope as the main guy regardless).
     
  20. Jerry’s Curl

    Jerry’s Curl lurker

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    With JDM in the lineup I prefer the defense and Mitch Moreland at 1B most of the time. Hanley does provide good insurance for a Moreland and/or JDM injury as Martinez has missed a lot of games three out of the last four years. Being the primary DH should reduce his chance of injury, however.

    How many games do you guys see JDM playing in the outfield? Maybe 25? I can see Moreland playing 120 games at 1B. Combine that when JDM gives an OF a day off and Hanley’s pinch hitting, I can see 250-300 ABs for Hanley.
     
  21. Byrdbrain

    Byrdbrain Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I think Moreland could easily play 120 games at 1B but I don't see him starting that many. I do think Hanley is going to get every chance to be the everyday 1B but I assume he will break down and won't be able to do it all year.
    I would take the under on 497 ABs but he'll get the opportunity to do it.

    I'd take over on JDM playing 25 games in the OF, I assume he'll play the majority of the NL games so that gets him a good chunk of the way there. I'm guessing he'll be more like 40 to 50 games assuming decent health from the starting 3 OFs.

    Moreland is essentially backing up 5 positions(all OF, 1B and DH) so he will get plenty of ABs.
     
  22. GrandSlamPozo

    GrandSlamPozo lurker

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    OPS+ doesn't adjust for position. Moreland was worth -2 batting runs last year compared to an average player while an average first baseman with the same number of plate appearances was worth +9 runs compared to an average player.

    EDIT - Actually the positional adjustment of -9 runs for first basemen needs to offset the combined offensive and defensive runs above average for the position, and an average first baseman presumably has negative defensive value compared to an average player. So an average first baseman is actually worth more than +9 runs offensively.
     
    #22 GrandSlamPozo, Feb 21, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2018
  23. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    FWIW - Hanley has had that many at bats in 9 of his 12 seasons. The odds are pretty decent he will be healthy enough - particularly since it is at 1b.
     
  24. Sampo Gida

    Sampo Gida lurker

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    If Hanley is hitting well enough to get 497 AB I hope he gets them. If he doesnt hit well he wont sniff 497 and Moreland gets most of the time at 1B , except against LHPers. Its all on Hanley.
     
  25. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    He was also a full time starting player there. That's not looking like the case here.

    Again, even if Hanley is absolutely crushing the ball and Moreland is being career Mitch Moreland, it's not like that switch would happen fast enough to put Hanley's vesting option in a prime spot. DD didn't hand out a 2 year deal on Moreland just to completely pull the plug that early.
     
  26. Infield Infidel

    Infield Infidel teaching korea american SoSH Member

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    If Hanley is traded, does his new team get his at-bat vesting clause?
     
  27. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Yes. The trading team is acquiring his contract as is. Nothing would change.
     
  28. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    Hanley and Moreland at $29.25 million would be the most expensive platoon of all time, yes?

    Wells/Soriano for the 2014 Yankees come to mind, but NYY only covered about $8M of that. Kemp and Crawford in LAD's LF in 2014 was more, but Kemp still played more in center that year.
     
  29. Minneapolis Millers

    Minneapolis Millers Member SoSH Member

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    Unless there's an injury, and Hanley's mediocre bat is the best option they have. Or Moreland hits even more poorly than Hanley.

    Those are the worst case scenarios. Hanley's healthy but puts up a pedestrian .260/.320/.450 line that we would not want to re-up for $22M, but still plays because of injury/underperformance elsewhere.
     
  30. Trotsky

    Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    If Hanley takes this year and his option vests... I’d imagine DD could find a trading partner for ‘19. Wouldn’t that make the most obvious and best scenario
     
  31. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    At that salary and with his consistent history of inconsistency?
     
  32. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    Sure. DDski would have to eat a good portion of the salary, and probably wouldn’t get back anything valuable except some much-needed partial salary relief, but bad deals get traded almost every year. Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Kemp are two names that fit this rule, from this past offseason alone.
     
  33. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Ahhh. Eating salary is a very important part of that deal. Might end up saving the Sox $2 or even $3 million! And we could get back theb third Chris Carpenter, if there is one.
     
  34. Trotsky

    Trotsky Member SoSH Member

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    If Hanley stays healthy and puts up his promised 30+ HRs, a team will pick him up for $10M
     
  35. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    And if he adds the 30SBs that he promised . . .
     
  36. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    Cora is a rookie manager and will be attempting to win games. He’s not going to bench Hanley to avoid a contract obligation, although I do expect him to roll out a fairly structured program of rest for regulars, to reduce fatigue. If Hanley earns his playing time with the stick, and isn’t too much a butcher at 1B, he’ll play. It’s pretty simple.

    So regardless whether the 2019 Red Sox could save $2MM, $10MM, or $22MM in payroll, no one actually involved with putting the team on the field is going to make any decision about Hanley’s playing time based on his contract status.

    At least, not so long as the starting pitching holds up.
     
  37. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    This is so obvious, yet it needs to be repeated.
     
  38. Max Power

    Max Power thai good. you like shirt? SoSH Member

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    It's actually 497 plate appearances and not at bats, right? Imagine what would happen if it were at bats and he were close to the number at the end of the season. He'd swing at every single pitch thrown to him, including ones that hit him.
     
  39. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    And then he would be immediately benched.
     
  40. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    That is correct. I'd revise the thread title if I knew how.
     
  41. Rasputin

    Rasputin Will outlive SeanBerry Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Edit the first post, it will let you change the title.

    There's a part of me that wants to see him try even if it ends up looking like Blue Jays era Jose Canseco.
     
  42. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    Thanks, Ras!
     
  43. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  44. Jerry’s Curl

    Jerry’s Curl lurker

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    I agree with this. DD and Cora don’t have some preconceived plan to keep Hanley under 497 PA before the season starts. If he’s contributing to the team, he will play. If he doesn’t produce at a high level, he will play less.
     
  45. Jerry’s Curl

    Jerry’s Curl lurker

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    Moreland is having a nice spring at the plate, wonder if he’s earned more ABs at first and would this push Hanley to the bench more or to DH at the expense of JBJ with JDM in the OF?
     
  46. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    Or maybe Sam Travis’s big spring pushes both Moreland and Hanley to the bench more.
     
  47. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    How would you fit Travis on the 25-man roster? There's already a crunch.
     
  48. Savin Hillbilly

    Savin Hillbilly loves the secret sauce SoSH Member

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    Yeah, there's no way Travis makes it to Boston this year except via either injury or trade.
     
  49. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    I weep for the death of irony.

    Repeat after me: Spring Training Stats Are Meaningless.
     
  50. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    [​IMG]
     

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