Hall of Fame 2018

[grimshaw]

Here is the full (unofficial) list of first timers and minimum 5% qualifiers - https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2018.shtml I'll just summarize

First the returnees with rounded off 2017 percentages-

Trevor Hoffman - 75%
Vladimir Guerrero - 72 %
Edgar Martinez - 59%
Roger Clemens - 54%
Barry Bonds - 54%
Mike Mussina - 52%
Curt Schilling - 45%
Manny Ramirez - 24%
Larry Walker - 22%
Fred McGriff - 22%
Jeff Kent - 17%
Gary Sheffield - 13%
Billy Wagner - 10%
Sammy Sosa - 9%

And notable first timers

Chipper Jones
Jim Thome
Scott Rolen
Andruw Jones
Johan Santana
Johnny Damon
Jamie Moyer
Omar Vizquel

Seems like Chipper Jones is the only complete lock, but I would think Thome is close to one too. Hoffman probably gets in since he barely missed it last year. Guerrero could get in too. There's still a steroid era backlog, so I think it will be hard for anyone beyond them

Of the newcomers, I would vote for C Jones, Thome, Rolen (though not this year) and A Jones.
Thoughts?

 

[Ale Xander]

Ale Xander ballot

Bonds
Clemens
Chipper
Manny
Hoffman
Vlad
Thome (can't leave out 600 HR)
Andruw (can't leave out best defensive OF in era with 434 HR's, despite poor .avg)
Omar (best defensive SS in era, decent enough hitter)

 

[grimshaw]

Mine would be

Bonds
Clemens
Martinez
Mussina
Schilling
Ramirez
Walker
Wagner
Chipper
Thome

Wagner to keep him from falling off the ballot since he is ridiculously underrated.

 

[brs3]

I'd be happy with any or all of the below being inducted.

Trevor Hoffman
Vladimir Guerrero
Edgar Martinez
Manny Ramirez
Gary Sheffield
Chipper Jones
Jim Thome

Not to derail things, but it'd be great if after 3-5 years of more than 50% but less than 75% a player was removed from the ballot and added back after a decade for another chance. If the 2nd chance doesn't work, whatever Veteran's Committee they come up with in 25 years can sort them out. Effectively voters make non-first ballot players wait anyway. Why not formalize it?

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

My list:

Vladimir Guerrero
Edgar Martinez
Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Mike Mussina
Manny Ramirez
Fred McGriff
Gary Sheffield
Chipper Jones
Jim Thome

I'm just not really a big Trevor Hoffman guy. I mean, I know that he's really good, but I think that these guys are better.

 

[moondog80]

Bonds
Clemens
Martinez
Mussina
Schilling
Ramirez
Chipper
Thome

 

[Ralphwiggum]

Assuming you don't think PEDs are an impediment to getting elected (and I would agree with that position), what's the argument for Bonds, Clemens and Manny but against Sosa? He's not mentioned on any of the ballots on this thread, and is also below 10% on the actual ballot when other guys with the PED cloud are much more mixed. Am I missing something else with him?

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Assuming you don't think PEDs are an impediment to getting elected (and I would agree with that position), what's the argument for Bonds, Clemens and Manny but against Sosa? He's not mentioned on any of the ballots on this thread, and is also below 10% on the actual ballot when other guys with the PED cloud are much more mixed. Am I missing something else with him?

I think the argument against Sosa has always been that he was not a HOF caliber player until he starting juicing, while Clemens, Bonds, Manny, and ARod were. Although, we really aren't truly sure when most of these guys actually started. I guess we go by educated guesses.

 

[grimshaw]

Ya, I mostly agree with BMHH but Sosa's game completely changed too so it's a bit of a better educated guess than the other guys.

He went from a Jason Heyward/JD Drew type guy who was an above average hitter with a large chunk of his value on defense, to a complete monster bat who became a liability in the field

Bonds and Clemens had respective WAR's of 164 and 134. Sosa was at 60 which puts him behind right fielders like Sheffy, Evans, and Larry Walker. So even with that amazing run he had, it shows that the rest of his career was just good.

Palmeiro is a better argument though since he torched pitching through the whole decade of the 90's. I think he ought to be in.

 

[Kliq]

Hoffman I think should be in. Longevity in closers is really hard to find; there are only 27 pitchers all-time with at least 300 saves, which is low imo because for the last 30 years or so the top closers usually have over 40 saves per year, and often times there are like ten guys with at least 40 saves. Outside of Rivera, Hoffman is the only pitcher in the 600 save club. And the 500 save club. It wasn't like he just kind of compiled stats either, his 1998 season where he finished second in the NL Cy Young voting (53 saves, 1.48 ERA, 0.849 WHIP) was one of the best relief seasons ever. Even as a 41 year old for Milwaukee he was very good (37 saves, 1.83 ERA, .907 WHIP). He only appeared in 12 postseason games, where closers become legends, and he didn't pitch well in his one WS appearance, which hurts him. I also think not being an elite-strikeout guy and lacking the blow-away stuff that contemporaries like Rivera and Billy Wagner had also hurt him as far as how people felt about him.

Thome I always thought of being kind of a Dave Kingman-like player with more sustainability, but he does have a career average of .276 and a career OPS of .956 (19th all time). He struck out a lot but he walked a ton (7th all time with 1747) and he hit at least 30 homers in 12 out of 13 seasons (1996-2008) and he probably only missed in 2005 because injuries limited him to 59 games. His peak was pretty good as well, from 2001 to 2005 he averaged 47.5 HRs/.613 slugging %/ 1.024 OPS. His 2002 season was particularly nasty ; .304/.445/.677 with 52 bombs, an OPS of 1.122 and an OPS+ of 197, WAR of 7.4. yet he only finished seventh in the AL MVP voting. Part of that was during the height of the steroid era, but Thome managed to avoid pretty much any steroid allegations, probably because much like Frank Thomas he came across as a naturally very large man who could hit a baseball very far. His teams were not very good during most of his prime, which hurts him. Reading about him he is very popular with the local media in cities he played in and came across as a really great guy, which might help him when it comes time to vote.

 

[InstaFace]

Sosa's game was also quite one-dimensional. A career .344 OBP in the steroid era, with an OPS+ of 128, isn't really eye-popping. I'll consider his case without too much prejudice for the PEDs, but I just don't think he's a top-10 candidate on the current list. It'll be his 6th year on the ballot, he has some time after the backlog gets cleared in a few years. But at his current 8.6%, he'd have to leapfrog a LOT of people to get into contention. I just don't see throwing him a vote for a lost cause.

My ballot:

1. Bonds - top-5 all-time player
2. Clemens - top-5 all-time pitcher
3. Mussina - great at many things, just not dazzling at any particular one. Very effective, and consistently so, for a long time.
4. Martinez - The best DH of all time, deserves it on merit alone, and also will clear the way for future DHs
5. Schilling - Longevity, strike zone command, postseason moments. Candidacy suffers for being teammates with a top-5 all-time pitcher.
6. C. Jones - Great during the steroid era, and pretty much just as great for a decade after it. A .470 OBP at age 36?!
7. Guerrero - Pos has said the whole point of the HOF is so you can vote for guys like Pedro. I feel similarly about Vlad. A terrifying talent.

Deserves votes to stay on:
8. Manny
9. Walker
10. Word Up Thome

I am unmoved by Hoffman. "but he had a lot of saves" seems to be the root of the argument. Billy Wagner was a better pitcher, if I had an 11th vote it'd go to him. In any event, neither are ahead of those 10 in my view.

Kerry Wood, Johan Santana and Ben Sheets - ah, what could have been.

 

[coremiller]

Once again, there are probably more than 10 deserving candidates.

Bonds
Clemens
C. Jones
Schilling
Mussina
Walker
Rolen
Edgar
A. Jones
Manny

Thome is my last guy out, but he should be in too. Then there's Vlad, Sosa, Sheffield, Santana who all have interesting cases.

Sox fans should be strongly supporting Edgar's candidacy. It will be a lot easier to get Ortiz in down the line if Edgar is already in.

I am firmly in the anti-Hoffman camp. The only modern reliever I think should go in is Rivera.

 

[lexrageorge]

My ballot:

Bonds: I hate voting for him, and not just for the PED's. But, he's not the only jerk in the HoF, and his career numbers speak for themselves.

Clemens: He was one of the best pitchers of his era even before the juice, so he gets my vote.

Hoffman: Bullpen relief ace is a valid role, and he was one of the best for a long time.

Edgar Martinez: The anti-DH bias is really dumb.

Mussina: He was consistently excellent for a long time while toiling for some awful Oriole teams.

Chipper Jones: 5 seasons with an OPS better than 1.000.

Andruw Jones: A bit more borderline than Chipper, but he was an outstanding CF as well.

Jim Thome: I cannot ignore 612 career HR's (even though I'm not supposed to use counting stats).

Manny: Ramirez, in case anyone is wondering which "Manny". 26th all time in career OPS+ is pretty rare company.

Vlad: Almost left him off, but since I'm allowed to vote for 10, he's in.


Notable Omissions:

Schilling: Was borderline to begin with, and as far as I'm concerned, he's shot himself in the foot.

Sheffield: He was always one of those "under the radar" players, but he hit a ton, so he deserves another crack at it. I go back and forth between him and Vlad. It will be easier if and when Bonds/Clemens/Edgar get in and are no longer clogging the middle of the ballot.

Larry Walker: Too close to the Hall of Very Good, especially taking into account his time in Colorado.

Carl Pavano: Brought us PEDRO.

And, of course, it's not too early to think about the 2019 notable first timers:

Mariano
Roy Halladay
Jason Bay (he'll get Cafardo's vote, so you never know...)

 

[InstaFace]

Bonds: I hate voting for him, and not just for the PED's. But, he's not the only jerk in the HoF, and his career numbers speak for themselves.

(...)

Notable Omissions:

Schilling: Was borderline to begin with, and as far as I'm concerned, he's shot himself in the foot.

So which is it?

 

[coremiller]

Two people in this thread now have justified voting for Thome on the basis of his 612 home runs while also not voting for Sosa despite his 609 home runs. Is there something special about those extra three home runs?

I will also never understand the closer love, especially when there are so many more valuable players on the ballot. The reason there aren't that many players with tons of career saves is that the modern closer role didn't really exist until La Russa and Eck invented it in the late 80s. And saves are a meaningless stat anyway. But more importantly, closers are also almost entirely failed starters. I suspect there are many, many mediocre starting pitchers who could have been dominant relief pitchers if they hadn't been more valuable as starters.

 

[grimshaw]

So which is it?

I'm more wondering why Schilling is considered borderline before his non baseball stuff?

ERA+ of 127
WHIP of 1.14
8 seasons with 5 or more WAR and 26th all time between Bob Gibson and Tom Glavine.
15th all time in k's
6 time all-star and 3 times finished CY Young runner up.
11-2 in the post season with a 2.23 ERA as well as an NLCS and WS MVP.

There are 74 pitchers in the hall. He is better than a good chunk of them.

 

[DanoooME]

Two people in this thread now have justified voting for Thome on the basis of his 612 home runs while also not voting for Sosa despite his 609 home runs. Is there something special about those extra three home runs?

It's more about Thome's career OPS+ of 147 vs. Sosa's 128. Defense is probably a wash, as is baserunning. And Thome was allegedly clean, while Sosa wasn't.

 

[koufax32]

My ballot:

4. Martinez - The best DH of all time, deserves it on merit alone...

Wait, what?

 

[GrandSlamPozo]

Any chance Chpper loses votes due to being a nutjob Sandy Hook truther? Or has he managed to keep his mouth shut long enough for people to have forgotten about that.

 

[KiltedFool]

It's more about Thome's career OPS+ of 147 vs. Sosa's 128. Defense is probably a wash, as is baserunning. And Thome was allegedly clean, while Sosa wasn't.

I've actually been (almost pleasantly) surprised by there never having been a whiff of PED whisper about Thome.

Thome also played 22 years, which is pretty impressive these days, compared to 18 for Sosa, which is also impressive considering it was almost all in the NL so no time at DH.

Vastly different narratives about both of them, Thome seems to get an almost assumed "of course he's in" a lot of times. Sosa with the PEDs and the sudden struggles with English so he used a translator in front of Congress.

 

[coremiller]

It's more about Thome's career OPS+ of 147 vs. Sosa's 128. Defense is probably a wash, as is baserunning. And Thome was allegedly clean, while Sosa wasn't.

I mostly agree, although early-career Sosa was a good defender and decent baserunner while Thome never was. For his career Sosa ended up about an average defender -- above-average for the first part and below for the second. Thome was always a terrible defender -- BRef has him at -17.2 wins on defense, while Sosa is -1.0.

But the particular point I was making was that if your reason for voting for Thome is that he hit 612 home runs, which two people here have already said, then you have to vote for Sosa too.

 

[Marciano490]

Sosa's game was also quite one-dimensional. A career .344 OBP in the steroid era, with an OPS+ of 128, isn't really eye-popping. I'll consider his case without too much prejudice for the PEDs, but I just don't think he's a top-10 candidate on the current list. It'll be his 6th year on the ballot, he has some time after the backlog gets cleared in a few years. But at his current 8.6%, he'd have to leapfrog a LOT of people to get into contention. I just don't see throwing him a vote for a lost cause.

My ballot:

1. Bonds - top-5 all-time player
2. Clemens - top-5 all-time pitcher
3. Mussina - great at many things, just not dazzling at any particular one. Very effective, and consistently so, for a long time.
4. Martinez - The best DH of all time, deserves it on merit alone, and also will clear the way for future DHs
5. Schilling - Longevity, strike zone command, postseason moments. Candidacy suffers for being teammates with a top-5 all-time pitcher.
6. C. Jones - Great during the steroid era, and pretty much just as great for a decade after it. A .470 OBP at age 36?!
7. Guerrero - Pos has said the whole point of the HOF is so you can vote for guys like Pedro. I feel similarly about Vlad. A terrifying talent.

Deserves votes to stay on:
8. Manny
9. Walker
10. Word Up Thome

I am unmoved by Hoffman. "but he had a lot of saves" seems to be the root of the argument. Billy Wagner was a better pitcher, if I had an 11th vote it'd go to him. In any event, neither are ahead of those 10 in my view.

Kerry Wood, Johan Santana and Ben Sheets - ah, what could have been.

Are you referring to Pedro or Randy when discussing Schilling?

 

[InstaFace]

Randy Johnson; Schilling of course arrived here after Pedro was no longer PEDRO. But Curt finished runner-up to Randy in the NL CYA in both 2001 and 2002. (and beat out by Johan Santana in 2004 as well)

Curt is 26th all-time in Pitcher bWAR. He's ahead of a lot of HOFers; dozens of starters alone, plus of course all the relievers. Other than Clemens (#3) and Mussina (#24), everyone ahead of him is in the Hall.

 

[Kliq]

Randy Johnson; Schilling of course arrived here after Pedro was no longer PEDRO. But Curt finished runner-up to Randy in the NL CYA in both 2001 and 2002. (and beat out by Johan Santana in 2004 as well)

Curt is 26th all-time in Pitcher bWAR. He's ahead of a lot of HOFers; dozens of starters alone, plus of course all the relievers. Other than Clemens (#3) and Mussina (#24), everyone ahead of him is in the Hall.

The Unit's 1999-2003 run where he averaged 354 Ks per year was remarkably nasty. We all love Pedro, but those years I think are under appreciated because Pedro was so good during that same stretch.

 

[coremiller]

Schilling's career tends to get underrated because a) he had only 216 wins, which to more traditional voters is a big negative, and b) his career overlapped with 4 of the best pitchers of all time (Pedro, Johnson, Maddux, Clemens) plus a few other HOF-level talents (Smoltz, Glavine, Santana, Kevin Brown), which made it a difficult era to collect awards and black ink. But he has a strong case even before you get to the postseason stuff, which for people who value that he obvious stands out (2.23 ERA in 133 IP, WS MVP, bloody sock, etc.).

 

[InstaFace]

Yeah, that's my point. Not being as good as a top-5-all-time pitcher doesn't mean you're not HOF-worthy, but I've heard some people reject Schilling's candidacy just with that - he was never the top dog on his team! (Except, I guess, 1993. Or 1997-98. Or the 2004 postseason, where some... impressive things happened)

 

[The Needler]

Larry Walker: Too close to the Hall of Very Good, especially taking into account his time in Colorado.

Hold Colorado against him if you must, but that's the only arguable reason to keep him out, because he was much better than very good. .313/.400/.565, 3x batting champ, HR Champ, MVP, 7x GG, 3x Silver Slugger, 2x led NL in OBP&SLG, 141 OPS+, 300-200 club, 72.6 bWAR...

And even as a broken down 37-38 year old in STL, he put up .286/.387/.520. It's a shame playing in Denver (and being too frequently hurt) means he'll never have a chance.

 

[grimshaw]

Ya the Coors stuff is overstated - especially when you consider he was a 5 tool player and his road splits were .273/.370/.495. That and OPS+ and wRC+ also adjust for ballpark.

Career OPS+ for the Rockies
Walker - 148
Helton 133
Holliday 131
Burks 128
Galarraga 126
Tulo 123
Arenado 117

His wRC+ of 140 is 14th and between Sheffield and Reggie Jackson among right fielders all time and he was light years ahead of those guys in the field. His counting stats hurt him, but he was a fantastic pure hitter too.

 

[sean1562]

The Unit's 1999-2003 run where he averaged 354 Ks per year was remarkably nasty. We all love Pedro, but those years I think are under appreciated because Pedro was so good during that same stretch.

I was a kid during those years and knew Johnson was great, but looking back at his stats now, i am amazed! How the hell did he win 4 Cy Youngs in a row from ages 35-38???