GS-Busters: who's the 2nd-best team in the NBA?

[Sam Ray Not]

With the final Melo and DWade shoes dropped, now seems like a pretty good time for this. Based on comments I've read here, I expect a pretty wide range of answers, with OKC, SAS, HOU, and CLE now crazily bunched up, and MIN and BOS not far off. I'm honestly not sure who I'd say, but I'm kinda leaning OKC, at least once they start to jell. I feel like Melo is probably a better fit with them than Wade is with the Cavs (similarly ball-dominant by nature, but younger, bigger, a better rebounder, and better spot-up 3 pt shooter); and I like their length and defense more than Houston's.

Then again, if I had a nickel for every time I predicted a decline from the Spurs...

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I honestly think it's Boston, and not just from homerism. It may take them awhile to gel, but the talent is there. Most of these teams are severely lacking in depth though. At least the Celtics bench has lots of potential upside.

 

[AMS25]

Then again, if I had a nickel for every time I predicted a decline from the Spurs...

The Spurs! The most exciting thing they did during the offseason was to get Rudy Gay.... But, they're always competitive. Ugh!

 

[cheech13]

Kawhi, Pop and the Spurs culture and system is good enough to churn out 50 wins, but I don't see them as being a legit title contender this season. They don't have the depth, athletes or offensive power to compete in a seven-game series with Golden State, and I wonder about their chances against OKC and Houston, too.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Kawhi, Pop and the Spurs culture and system is good enough to churn out 50 wins, but I don't see them as being a legit title contender this season. They don't have the depth, athletes or offensive power to compete in a seven-game series with Golden State, and I wonder about their chances against OKC and Houston, too.

Says who? They were about to take out the Warriors in Game 1 before Kawhi got Zaza'd.

 

[DJnVa]

Says who? They were about to take out the Warriors in Game 1 before Kawhi got Zaza'd.

Then they would have lost in 5.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Golden State is, sadly, still the favorites agains the field. But I do think there are a couple of teams that are better suited to beat them this year than they were last.

In the west, Houston, San Antonio and OKC will all make Golden State work hard.

In Houston, Paul always gives Curry trouble and I think the single most important element (of many important elements) to beating Golden State is having a point guard that can beat up Curry. You have to be able to run every play at Curry, and between Harden, Paul and Gordon it's really hard to hide Curry anywhere. And Mbah a Moute will at least make Durant work hard to score.

Westbrook creates issues for Curry for obvious reasons, and Paul George can defend Durant as well as anybody in the league. Those two things alone make them interesting enough, and the sort of team that Golden State isn't going to be super excited to see in a playoff series.

But my actual vote is still Cleveland. They're the only team in the league that will have the best player in the series, a healthy IT replaces what Irving gave them, and Crowder gives them a switchable 3 & D wing that they've been desperate for. Richard Jefferson was playing serious finals minutes, after all. If you an add the Tristan Thompson of two finals ago to those guys, get good shooting out of Love, Korver, and JR Smith they're really tough to beat. A lot has to go right, but I think they have the highest ceiling of 'the field' and can easily see a path to where they're a better playoff team than they were the last two seasons.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

What does "second best" mean? Team that gives GSW the most trouble in a seven game series?

I'm voting OKC. The two things that set apart GSW are (i) their skill, which isn't duplicable, and (ii) their length and athleticism. As of right now, of the contenders, OKC comes closest to matching that. It would help if Melo buys in on defense, but who knows about that.

I'm very anxious to see how long and athletic the Cs play. If things work out right, they could also have a really nice combination of skill and athleticism.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Then they would have lost in 5.

So, they were good enough to dominate the best team on the road before Kawhi's injury but not good enough to win a game at home? Ok.

 

[LondonSox]

It's Houston for me. But I think the chasers are all closer to each other than the warriors. And the warriors got better this year.

It's not Boston now, sorry bosox we can discuss next year once everyone has meshed and we have a better idea on Tatum and brown.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

It's Houston for me. But I think the chasers are all closer to each other than the warriors. And the warriors got better this year.

It's not Boston now, sorry bosox we can discuss next year once everyone has meshed and we have a better idea on Tatum and brown.

Houston's defense and depth got worse with their moves. OKC may be better but you have three players there with fairly unique and not so complimentary skill sets who, at the very least, need to learn to play together (if this is true of Boston its true of them and Houston as well).

That said, Cleveland is still the next team to beat in the Association. Assuming Thomas is limited upon his return, they lost some scoring but their added depth should make up for some of it.

Finally, to me the teams making the leap to the tier below are the most interesting. I have Minnesota in the West and Milwaukee in the East as teams that could surprise others.

However, barring injuries or some surprises on either side, we are likely to get the Cavs versus Warriors round four come next June.

 

[cheech13]

Houston's defense and depth got worse with their moves. OKC may be better but you have three players there with fairly unique and not so complimentary skill sets who, at the very least, need to learn to play together (if this is true of Boston its true of them and Houston as well).

That said, Cleveland is still the next team to beat in the Association. Assuming Thomas is limited upon his return, they lost some scoring but their added depth should make up for some of it.

Finally, to me the teams making the leap to the tier below are the most interesting. I have Minnesota in the West and Milwaukee in the East as teams that could surprise others.

However, barring injuries or some surprises on either side, we are likely to get the Cavs versus Warriors round four come next June.

Houston's defense got worse by adding Chris Paul, Luc Mhab a Moute and PJ Tucker? If anything, their defense should be vastly improved this season.

 

[Auger34]

Houston's defense and depth got worse with their moves. OKC may be better but you have three players there with fairly unique and not so complimentary skill sets who, at the very least, need to learn to play together (if this is true of Boston its true of them and Houston as well).

That said, Cleveland is still the next team to beat in the Association. Assuming Thomas is limited upon his return, they lost some scoring but their added depth should make up for some of it.

Finally, to me the teams making the leap to the tier below are the most interesting. I have Minnesota in the West and Milwaukee in the East as teams that could surprise others.

However, barring injuries or some surprises on either side, we are likely to get the Cavs versus Warriors round four come next June.

In addition to the point Cheech made above (Houston's defense is definitely not worse).
I think you are incorrect about OKC as well. Melo and Westbrook don't have complementary skill sets but PG13 fits perfectly with Westbrook. He's not really a guy who has to have the ball and he's a tremendous on ball defender. OKC's main concern is depth. After their top 6 (Russ, Roberson, PG, Melo, Adams, and Pat Pat) they really don't have another rotation player.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

We have our answer. According to this NBA2K simulation, the Thunder win the championship. Lock the thread.

And since I've posted about this here, some other fun facts from this simulation (note this was prior to the Melo trade):

Brooklyn won 34 games and tied with MIA for 7th worse record.
DeAngelo Russell was on the All-Star Team. Jeremy Lin was 6th man of the year.
No Celtic made the All-Star Team.
The Cs were the 8th seed in the East.
Daniel Theis was invited to the slam dunk contest
Jayson Tatum made the Rising Stars roster. Jaylen Brown did not. (Dino Saric did.)
Lakers and Pacers each had 30 wins but Hawks were worst at 27 wins.
GSW lost in the first round to the T'Wolves.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

What does "second best" mean?

You can interpret it how you like: at a practical level, who's best-equipped to knocking off the Warriors, or at a more abstract level, if the Warriors did not exist (insert weeping emoji) who you would consider the favorite heading into the season.

As I expected, votes so far seem pretty well dispersed. I'm mildly surprised to see that Rockets at the bottom of the heap; if you check out Rockets blogs like the Dream Shake (as I do occasionally, just to quietly gawk at how much hey hate the Warriors) you get the sense the majority think of them in a two-horse race with the Warriors. (Of course, Houston sports alert — these are likely the same fans who consider the Texans in a two-horse race with Pats...)

 

[chilidawg]

It's Houston for me. But I think the chasers are all closer to each other than the warriors. And the warriors got better this year.

It's not Boston now, sorry bosox we can discuss next year once everyone has meshed and we have a better idea on Tatum and brown.

The homer in me thinks that's going to happen before the end of this season.

 

[snowmanny]

Sometimes, an invincible team indeed repeats...87 Lakers, 92/96 Bulls, 00 Lakers, 12 Heat. At least as often something goes awry and they don't...67/83 Sixers, 71 Bucks, 72 Lakers, 86 Celtics 13 Heat etc. So as much as I expect the Finals to be GS 4 CLE 1, I'll vote Warriors at #2. Just have no clue who would be #1, so I suppose that's not the spirit of the thread.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Houston's defense got worse by adding Chris Paul, Luc Mhab a Moute and PJ Tucker? If anything, their defense should be vastly improved this season.

Ok I grant you that Paul, assuming he is healthy (and its a big assumption for a player his age and with his recent injury history), helps the Rockets defense and Mhab a Moute is a decent defensive player.

I don't get the PJ Tucker love on this board - as a side note, the angst on this board when the Raptors, rather than the C's acquired Tucker last spring was crazy. The guy is a decent three and D wing but nowhere near great in any category. He is also 32 years old.

Finally, my other point was that the Rockets lost a fair bit of depth to get Paul. Beverly, LouWill, Dekker and Harrell all contributed to Houston's very good season next year and they are replacing some of those minutes with what appear to be clear downgrades.

With regards to OKC, I was very deliberate in using the language " three players with fairly unique and not so complimentary skill sets'. I completely agree with tbb that George can essentially fit within just about any scheme/system that is run in the current NBA - the guy is one of the best all around players in the game. I was more referring to how ball dominant players like Melo and Westbrook fit together. That said, I won't be totally shocked if Westbrook has the best assist totals of his entire career next season given that he has two near-elite scoring options around him now.

That said, I stand by my original point directed toward London - if you believe Boston has to learn to play together before they can make a leap and I think that is an entirely reasonable position they you have to say the same of both Houston and OKC.

 

[mauf]

Houston.

The Rockets were the 3rd or 4th best team in the league last year and added a true superstar. They have depth issues, which may keep them from replicating last year's win total, but they're the only team in the West with more than a puncher's chance to beat the Dubs.

I sort of understand the OKC love, but they started a couple steps behind the other contenders, PG isn't the same player since the injury, and Melo has been the NBA's most overrated player for years.

Among the others, CLE took a step back, SA got a year older, and BOS is basically a brand-new team. It's possible that I'm underestimating Pop and/or Brad here.