Greg Monroe(1 year, $5 million) to sign with the Celtics
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Damn, he bangs bodies under there on offense. No one shoving him off his spot when he goes up. Big strong guy.
No idea. Both teams are 5-5 in their last 10. It's not like the Raptors are on the march.
This article from the beginning of the season said that Monroe improved his defense in the 2016-17 season to the extent that he was a net positive for MIL. Partially attributable to greater energy but also partially attributable to playing against second teamers.
Good pick up. Monroe gives them some front court insurance in case of an injury.
Good pick up. Monroe gives them some front court insurance in case of an injury.
When two teams have substantially identical records at this point of the season, but materially different point differentials, you normally expect the team with the better point differential to post the better record over the remainder of the season. I get that people have reasons for expecting something other than the normal result here. I just don’t see it.
The concern for me is effort vs talent. Irving was a terrible defender because he didn't want to bother playing defense. Monroe a poor rim protector in part because he is a poor jumper and slow for an NBA player. It is a lot easier for a coach to make a player more motivated than it is to make him a better athlete.
I was wrong about Kyrie being willing to play more D, though. So hopefully I am wrong about Monroe too.
Maybe Evans would. If upgrading from Theis to Monroe makes a significant difference, it’s likely because something else went wrong (because neither should be getting tons of minutes once everyone else besides Hayward is healthy).
I'm glad the Raptors are nipping at the Celtics' heels. Otherwise the EC would be a boring runaway and Stevens might have trouble keeping the team primed for the playoffs.
Monroe is no panacea but he doesn't cost anything, except possibly some minutes for Theiss and Baynes. He'll improve the second unit's offense, not only as a scorer but also as a passer.
Monroe is no panacea but he doesn't cost anything, except possibly some minutes for Theiss and Baynes. He'll improve the second unit's offense, not only as a scorer but also as a passer.
Love the Monroe signing, I think he's smart enough (as is Coach Stevens)to find a way to make his defense work with this team, and he definitely has skills. Great rebounder to boot.
Get Evans and we're ready to rock.
Get Evans and we're ready to rock.
Models that look at this seem to say that Toronto is the better team and more likely to win the East. I'm still bullish on the Celtics.
Love the signing. Seems a lot like the PJ Brown move during the big 3 era, where it was praised but not fully appreciated until after the season ended. Looking forward to seeing how Brad can utilize him in the rotation.
The team depth could quickly change with Monroe, a trade for a 2nd unit scorer, and Hayward's return.
The team depth could quickly change with Monroe, a trade for a 2nd unit scorer, and Hayward's return.
nice signing. His best defensive year came in a system much like ours and he played very well in the playoffs last year in almost the exact role he's likely to have here: Come off the bench, bully guys in the post for easy buckets, come out in 4-5 minutes, repeat 2-3 more times as matchups allow. He's a good rebounder, good scorer, and there is hope for him as a positional defender on PnR (86th percentile last year).
I wouldn't be surprised to see them still try and trade a player and/or pick for Tyreke as well.
I wouldn't be surprised to see them still try and trade a player and/or pick for Tyreke as well.
No Bird rights.
They could re-sign him as a non-Bird free agent for up to 6M(120% of this years' 5M) without having to use an exception.
If they don't make a move for Evans or Williams I'll take it as a sign they think Hayward is coming back.
That may be a good indication.
Can't see Williams happening with the DPE used on Monroe.
Evans may be too costly (1st rounder) for the incremental upgrade if Rozier can play like this.
I find this compelling. I wonder, though, if defensive oriented teams might behave differently with respect to point differential—like, depending how few there are, they might not be represented by the normal distribution.
Here’s to hoping, anyway.
Anyone seen studies that look at how correlative point differentials are in different sports?
I never really see discussion of point differential in bball, vs. the other major sports. Wondering why that is.
I never really see discussion of point differential in bball, vs. the other major sports. Wondering why that is.
While the Pythag is not really intended to be predictive, of course you have to tweak the formula based on sport, and that's done through the use of the exponent. [the 16.5 in the formula Points^16.5/(Points^16.5+ Opponents’ Points^16.5)] For the NBA, the most commonly used is 16.5, which is much higher than MLB's (around 2) because there is less luck vs. team skill involved in determining the winner of a basketball game than a baseball game. Some argue that a lower exponent (around 14) is more appropriate for the NBA, and that the number should be lessened later in the season, or that the formula should be adjusted based on the team's pace.
In any event, using the ESPN/Hollinger 16.5 version and nothing else (e.g. Future schedule, other assessments of team quality) the Celtics should end up with about 57.9 wins, and the Raptors with about 58.4. Use of a lower exponent would shrink that gap.
One discussion of the NBA formula here: https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa0017
Absolutely, Monroe is a better player than Baynes. He does have some defensive limitations, but the coaching staff can certainly work around them. This allows them to rest/be cautious with Morris and Horford for the remainder of the season without having to rely on Semi or other deep bench players when those guys are out.
They haven’t official signed him yet, which I think is because they want to retain flexibility to take on a contract at the deadline.
So they may not actually sign him until later in the week.
So they may not actually sign him until later in the week.
What flexibility would they retain?
He didn't clear waivers until yesterday. He probably still needs to take a physical, so the signing will likely happen once they've cleared his health. I'd expect it to happen tomorrow and then have him travel with the team this week.
https://www.celticsblog.com/2018/2/4/16971422/report-boston-celtics-could-delay-greg-monroe-signing
Trade flexibility, taking back 2 and cutting 1, tax level flexibility.
i'd doubt it since he hasn't signed yet
Probably signs on either the 8th or 9th, doesn't play either of those, earliest I'd expect is maybe the Cavs game on the 11th? or Clips on the 14th
Paul Pierce can't catch a break. First, Isaiah tries to steal his thunder on Truth's special night and now he must share the spotlight with the debut of Greg Monroe. Life ain't fair sometimes.
Brian Robb has a good article on BSJ explaining the strategy behind holding off on inking Monroe (link here, subscription-only but well worth it IMO). A quick summary:
As mcpickl noted upthread, the Cs will be able to sign Monroe using non-Bird rights for up to 120% of this year's salary without using an exception. So the Cs likely wait until after the deadline to sign Monroe because if they don't add salary in a trade, they could give him more than $5 million this year (perhaps approaching the full amount of the DPE) so that they can offer him a larger salary under his non-Bird rights this offseason and have a better chance at retaining him without using the MLE.
As mcpickl noted upthread, the Cs will be able to sign Monroe using non-Bird rights for up to 120% of this year's salary without using an exception. So the Cs likely wait until after the deadline to sign Monroe because if they don't add salary in a trade, they could give him more than $5 million this year (perhaps approaching the full amount of the DPE) so that they can offer him a larger salary under his non-Bird rights this offseason and have a better chance at retaining him without using the MLE.
Jesus. Is there any other sport that has salary rules this complex? MLB's pretty straightforward in comparison, right? I'd like to see someone write an article about how this head-spinning tangle of salary rules evolved. Must be an interesting story in there somewhere.
1. They don't have to immediately waive someone if they agree to a deal that adds a player. Presumably this gives them time look for another deal.
2. They can wait until the deadline dust settles before deciding how much to pay Monroe. (They agreed to $5 million, but they can give him anything between $5 and the full DPE.
Interesting article from Himmelsbach:
So looks like they are on Team Evans, rather than Team Lou.
Interesting thoughts on Monroe, particularly around defense. I winder if they will view him as a replacement for Baynes next year - if so, they may sign him for closer to the full MLE, which would allow them to sign him for more next year.
Google NBA CBA FAQ sometime for a bit of background. It's the nature of having a soft salary cap; a soft cap means that there are lots of exceptions that allow teams to go over the cap in order to (a) fill their roster; and (b) retain existing players. It's the rules on retaining players that are mind-numbingly complex, a result of numerous iterations over many CBA drafts. Compromise between players wanting freedom to move, owners wanting control over salary growth, GM's wanting to keep their best players, and other owners wanting to prevent big market clubs from hoarding assets.
I can't imagine Ainge wants to pay Monroe 10 million dollars to play for them next year. The center market is a ridiculous buyers market and for what they are looking for out of their center they can use the room exception or something to sign another Baynes. If Monroe gets anywhere close to 10 from the Celtics it is because he is being used as salary for a trade .
I think being used a ballast for trade actually has some real value for the Celtics. Depending where they end up with other moves (in particular whether they're paying Smart), they may want to overpay Monroe on a 1-year deal to be able to use as ammo in a trade.
For example, odds are Anthony Davis isn't going anywhere next year regardless, but on the 15% chance he becomes available, it would be nice to be able to deal for him without gutting the bench to make the salaries match.
This Davis angle is the one I mentioned in another thread of Ainge being prepared to move on and a one-year deal to create a large expiring contract for the purpose of aligning his pieces (along with multiple #1's in each years draft) fits this narrative. With a Monroe expiring deal in place his salary combined with Morris' expiring and either Jaylen/Tatum would satisfy the financial requirements of a deal. I'm guessing Ainge would like to include the higher/most valuable future picks along with Jaylen while retaining Tatum if at all possible. The signing of Monroe is as much a way to build a package as it is to help this years team imo. I don't believe that the delay is about utilizing the TPE for Evans or Lou (who is a horrible fit here and quickly becoming a very overrated one dimensional player)......it is about paying Monroe enough to make a potential Davis deal easier to complete.
How long will the Pelicans continue on with Demps and Gentry? Could the Boogie injury motivate the Pelicans group to move on this sooner rather than later? Does Ainge have information that this could/will happen in the coming months? The signs I'm seeing are yes he very well could have this information.
One thing to keep in mind is that once that leadership move is made the new guy will be brought in to make changes and moving Davis for future years of high picks would benefit this GM in lengthening his window rather than adding more crappy pieces around Davis. Who would Ainge's competitors be for Davis? He's gathering the assets to put together a deal that would be unmatched even without including Tatum. Fun times for sure.
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The Pelicans weren’t a contender even with AD and a healthy Boogie. If they trade AD, they’re rebuilding. In that context, they’d choose a pick-laden offer from Boston or Philly over a Green/Thompson package from the Dubs.
That said, I don’t see Philly in the mix either unless something happens before this year’s draft. I think they need their 2 1st rounders this year to make a competitive offer, assuming the C’s would offer at least Jaylen and the SAC and LAC picks — that’s a better package than either Simmons or Embiid with picks that are unlikely to be in the top 10.
I know this was a few years ago, but I'm surprised at Monroe's numbers looking at his basketball-reference page. From 2012-2015, he averaged 15.6 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and shot 49.9% from the floor.
His per-36 rates are pretty solid still: 17.1 points, 12.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists. Not that he'll play 36 minutes, but the guy, at age 27, still looks like potentially a significant contributor.
His per-36 rates are pretty solid still: 17.1 points, 12.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists. Not that he'll play 36 minutes, but the guy, at age 27, still looks like potentially a significant contributor.
Yeah, there's nothing wrong physically. His game is just no longer suited for the NBA so he gets less minutes.
Remember when Monroe was negotiating a max extension with Detroit, or when he signed a three-year deal with an opt out so he could get back into free agency for the cap bonanza? That seems like a lifetime ago.
I'm guessing it's more on the defensive end that he's not a good fit. Lots of elite teams have guys with offensive skill sets that don't include perimeter shooting, which seems to me to be all he really lacks. Capela, Thompson, West, Pachulia, Valanciunas all don't seem to be any better fits for the modern NBA offensively.
Wrong thread.
While I'm here, though, I may as well mention that I fully endorse the Greg Monroe signing. The C's got better today.
While I'm here, though, I may as well mention that I fully endorse the Greg Monroe signing. The C's got better today.