I’m not sure it has much to do with the Stevens system thing. Smart is a career 36% shooter and sub 30% from 3pt. He’s a good passer but not an elite distributor. What teams are going to want to throw $12-15M at a bench guard who can’t shoot for shit? I doubt many teams, if any, view him as a starting-caliber player.
Green was signed to maintain Perkins salary slot during our rebuilding years because we knew Perkins was damaged goods and wasn't going to be signed to that same contract (at least by us). Greem wasn't signed as part of a championship run where his contract was going to potential prohibit us from extending our own stars due to his contract. The Green deal then is apples/oranges to the Smart situation this summer and the ramifications of his over the final 2-3 years of the contract.
I'm valuing the player in the role that he will play on the team during his contract and how I also feel Ainge values him (will value him). I expect no offer from Ainge at this stage with Smart being left with signing the QO for this reason.
I don't believe this is close to accurate. I likewise don't think this board would take Smart over Booker.
I can't think of a time a team has lost an actual star due to overpaying a role player. Teams end up in cap hell when they overpay role players in order to convince a star to stay, and then the star leaves anyway for non-financial reasons.
Is this because teams preemptively let guys walk in anticipation of signing their stars? Harrison Barnes comes to mind.
Depending on how you felt about the various players involved the Harden trade seems like a case of this.
I would take Smart over Booker ON THIS TEAM as long as the dollars aren’t ridiculous. With the starting 5 this team has there is no reason for an all offense no defense Devin Booker at the contract he just signed. A Smart at $8-10 mill max per year is a much better fit. On a team that needs offense you take Booker all day. On this team Smart is a better fit.
It’s not just about losing stars, but the ability to sign new ones. There are plenty of teams unable to bring in new players because of shitty contracts.
I would take Devin Booker on this team at 8-10 mil max per year over Smart on the same money and it's not particularly close either. Devin Booker is a much more rare commodity than Marcus Smart. You make it fit.
Okay, but that's not really relevant to the Celtics, right? They're over the cap for the foreseeable future, and will not have the ability to sign any star talent likely for the duration of this run. They can still trade for star talent, but having a $12M/year Marcus Smart is an asset in that respect (for salary filler purposes).
Jae Crowder was a value contract and a very important piece in the trade for Kyrie. If Smart could sign a similar MLE deal, we should all be happy. We can't just think about this years tight cap space as what is to come. In the next couple years, as stupid signings from 2016 expire, teams will once again give stupid deals. Or, if they want to, can trade for players who signed more reasonable deals in the summer of 2018
This one occurred to me, but this trade was a talent evaluation issue rather than cap hell: they thought Ibaka was a star/better fit, and didn't think Harden (despite his productivity as a 6th man) was. This wasn't a case where they signed Ibaka, and then found they didn't have enough money to pay a star down the road. They signed Ibaka and traded Harden in the same offseason. They made a contemporaneous talent/fit evaluation, and guessed wrong.
<start drunk ramble>
I think the real driver was that they were afraid of the luxury tax and felt they had to move one of them. That they picked the wrong guy was secondary to the lux tax concern—absent that they don’t need to make the talent evaluation at all.
Wasn't it more about the Perkins trade/extension than Ibaka? They could have had both without Perk.
Good that you bring up Booker. He certainly is a more rare commodity and a great counterpoint. Guys who love Booker usually don't love Smart, and the opposite is true.
First of, I don't know if I'd buy that.
I thought about half a second and Kendrick Perkins in OKC came to mind in costing them Harden without going over the tax. I'd have to research more but I imagine with the number of role players being overpaid around the league that this occurs fairly frequently.
That's fair; I hadn't considered Perk.
I agree that Smart is a better fit on this particular team than Booker or LaVine. For a rebuilding team I'm guessing it's 30 for 30 who take Smart 3rd behind the other two if there was a draft.
Agree on Perk, and agree role players frequently get overpaid for this reason. The point is that teams usually overpay these role players with the idea of convincing a star to later take the max, not that they overpay them and find they can't afford to offer a star the max.
I feel the new norm which Ainge was at the forefront of making popular is the 1-year overpay or the 1+1 option with an overpay......which isn't really an overpay as it allows the team flexibility both in cap/tax down the road as well as for trade opportunities. Ainge prepared for the KG trade long in advance first by trading for Raef LaFrentz then shedding a year off his deal in making the Theo Ratliff trade thus allowing for a salary match and expiring deal that the Wolves coveted. He prepared in a similar manner with the Zeller and especially Amir contracts for future trades that never materialized but he WAS prepared for them. Funny how the Sixers followed suit with Amir and Redick to allow flexibility and get their shooter a deal he couldn't resist to join the team......and now others are doing same in preparation of next summer.
Who knows? What if Kyrie leaves next year and a max player wants to join in 2020? Al is up, they max Brown, and Smart’s contract then becomes an issue in adding another max.
This is a move for under the cap teams to preserve future flexibility. That window is over for Boston. We project to be capped out for quite some time. There is no value to the Celtics in a short term overpay for Smart, or anyone else.
This isn't entirely accurate. Yes, the Harden trade came about because they chose Ibaka over him, but the reason they didn't have the funds to pay both was because they had traded for and extended Perkins. That was a clear scenario where a misallocation of resources had cost them a star.
Yeah, and it’s not that difficult, either. Marcus Morris’ job moved to the Western Conference a few days ago and with Hayward’s return his minutes vanish.
Do you see Smart getting just as many years as Crowder or Bradley? I can't see it. A 1 year deal for just over MLE, sure. Not a multi year deal. I guess a lot of it will depend on if other teams make offers.
This is where I'm at on Smart as well.
You really think he'd start over Gibson? Either way, he would be a really nice piece for the Wolves. He'd replace Crawford's offense and be the first player off the bench. Even if he wasn't starting, he'd be getting 25+ minutes a night.
I agree OKC is the exception, but (unfortunately) it's an exception that is closer to the Celtics' situation than most other cases around the league. The Celtics got there in a different way (Kyrie and Hayward via trade), but the end result is the same: 4 stars or promising young guys to pay. Outside of GSW, I can't think of another close comp.
Again, why would Ainge ever put himself in this position to "gamble" when he doesn't have to do so? If Smart can't get an offer sheet anywhere he'll have no choice but to play for the $6m this season.
Yeah, I don't understand why people want Ainge to compete against himself. Signing Marcus to the QO is literally the best possible outcome. It delays the Irving/Rozier/Smart decision one more year. It's not like Smart is going to refuse the Celtics next year if they offer the most money, and it's not like he's going to whine and sulk in a contract year. He's going to be motivated to play his ass off and make $$$ next off season. It could also open up the possibility of trading Rozier when Smart is under wraps for another season.
Interestingly, New Orleans nabbed both Randle (2 years MLE) and Payton (1 yr deal) from that same 2014 draft: https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2014.html
That's why the QO is by far the best outcome for the Celtics. Its similar to a 1+1 (player option) except the 1yr guaranteed is a sizeable underpay.
To somewhat play into that, Gordon and LaVine also had seasons where they made huge leaps in development, Gordon's this year and LaVine's last season before the injury. Given Gordon isn't even 23 and LaVine is only a couple months older and seems to have fully recovered, they really should continue to develop. Nurkic has made steady progress the last 2 years but I'm guessing he is getting paid mostly for what he already is. Exum seems like a reach to me but I dunno, Utah may know something I don't. He also hasn't really played.
Again, because Ainge probably thinks Smart is significantly better than you think he is.
