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Getting Smart with Statistics

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by JakeRae, Jan 8, 2018.

  1. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I think he was fined $35,500 or something like that. I think that what the league should do with that money is award it to Jason Tatum for keeping Smart off of Bembry.

    Edit: FIxed Bembry's name
     
    #751 Eddie Jurak, Jan 21, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2019
  2. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Maybe, but Tony Allen and Chris Paul are 8th and 9th all time in Career Steal %. Allen missed leading the league in steal rate at 4.5% in 2010-11 by 6 minutes. It went to Paul at 3.5. They are at 3.4% and 3.3%, while Nate is at 3.8%. He is 3rd all time, behind Alvin Robertson and Celtics legend Quinn Buckner.
     
  3. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    It was $35k.

    And agreed, if Tatum doesn't somehow slow Marcus, DeAndre Bembry probably needs to take off his shoes to eat dinner. More to the point, Tatum saved Smart from a long vacation.
     
  4. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Smart needs to be getting 35+ minutes in the playoffs, right? They're clearly stretching Kyrie out to be able to go 38-40 then, and it works so much better when Smart is complementing him rather than Rozier.
     
  5. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Yes. I’d limit Rozier’s regular minutes to backing up Kyrie and situational matchups.
     
  6. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, it looked like they went to him a bit yesterday to counter Schröder's quickness. But other than stuff like that, his minutes should be = (48 - $KYRIE_MINUTES). So about 10/game.
     
  7. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    "Stretching out" as in Brad has him on a pitch count? Kyrie has logged high 30's and into the 40's all season in the games when he's carrying us offensively. In the games he isn't Brad has rode Rozier longer. Obviously Kyrie is going to play big minutes in the playoffs but there is no pattern of being "stretched out" in the regular season except when our team needs him out there.
     
  8. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I thought that too, but if you look at the game logs for the season, there's a clear pattern of using him more over the past couple months in close games or against good teams, relative to the start of the season.

    Source:
    https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/i/irvinky01/gamelog/2019
     
  9. TripleOT

    TripleOT Member SoSH Member

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    Smart is shooting over 40% for the first time in his career.
    40.8/36.6/79.1%, compared to career marks of
    36.6/30/6/76.0%

    He's shooting the threeball at 43% since the first of the year. This is the Marcus Smart that fans have been dreaming about. He's taken only 78 non-layup.non-threes, last year he took 223 for the season, in only two more games (3 less mpg)

    His assists are down a tick, from 2.8 to 2.1 apg, but he's lopped off one TO per game, from 2.4 to 1.4. Smart is playing off all that offensive talent, doing more in less attempts, with an eFG skyrocketing from 44 to 52.5%, higher this season than Tatum and Brown.
     
  10. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    And his RPM is 4.40, 5th among PGs. The Celtics could get a lot better in the playoffs simply by giving him half of Rozier's minutes.
     
  11. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Also this:


    Marcus Smart in DRPM, with the value of 2.46:

    - only guard in the top 29,
    - only point guard in the top 70 (3 other SGs in the 30-70 range),
    - difference between him and Bledsoe (#2 PG, 1.42) is bigger than #2 and #16 Collison
     
  12. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Continuing: Smart is 13th in overall RPM. The only other guys in the top 20 making less than the max or close are Vucevic ($12.75M), Nurkic ($12M), and Bledsoe ($14M), and they all are ranked lower than Smart. Vucevic and Bledsoe are both UFAs this summer.

    Smart is probably the best value non-max contract in the NBA right now.
     
  13. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Ignoring rookie contracts anyway.
     
  14. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    And I'm not even sure Marcus Smart has the best non max contract on his team named Marcus.
     
  15. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Right but even during the first month of the year he played 40 minutes in each of his 40 point games. There was no "stretching out" to prepare for anything......it was more Brad trying to spread out minutes best he could to deserving players but during Kyrie's big games he rode him.


    Marcus has been great this year with the most noticeable difference being his improved shot selectivity. I don't know why you are comparing him to PG's though when he's played the 2/3 all season except for emergency spots when Kyrie was out.
     
  16. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    Gratuitous SRN note: Andre Iguodala — DRPM of +2.17, #2 among all guards after Smart and Danny Green — is the Warriors' de facto backup PG, in roughly the same manner as Smart for the Cs.

    I note this not just to pimp one of my all-time favorite players, but also to throw Andre's NBA career as a great comp / role model for Smart's likely career path. Like Andre, Marcus will likely remain perennially, criminally underrated by casual fans but duly revered by coaches, teammates, and anyone who looks at numbers that reflect impact on wins and losses more than Fantasy points or all-star appearances.

    Like, if Smart ever has to miss a game or three in the playoffs, you guys will rightly point out out how fundamental he is to everything the Cs do at their best, while outsiders will scoff and say, "pshaw, we're talking about a freaking bench role player here — you guys can't win games with three all-stars???"

    Edit: for another great Andre/Smart stat, here are the current NBA leaders in AST/TOV ratio, filtered for players who are big/strong enough to guard wings:

    1. Iguodala, GS 4.19
    2. Satoransky, WAS 3.52
    3. Smart, BOS 2.99
     
    #766 Sam Ray Not, Feb 5, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2019
  17. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Morris is a free agent though. So while his contract is phenomenal this year, Smart has several years left on his

    - edit -
    I imagine very team would trade their Marcus Morris on a one year deal for Marcus Smart on his
     
  18. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I used PGs simply because that's how ESPN sorts it. Agree he basically plays wing/2.
     
  19. TripleOT

    TripleOT Member SoSH Member

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    One of my main reasons why I wanted Smart retained here was to compete with Golden State. Iggy has been key to their success.
     
  20. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, "small Iggy" or "little Draymond" has always been a good comp for him, especially as his 3-point shooting becomes better.

    Speaking of that shooting, and not to be repetitive: form looks really clean now.
     
  21. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I said it before but I still think it's crazy, Marcus Smart has a very good chance of having a 3 pt% this year higher than his career high FG%.
     
  22. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    His three point percentage continues to rise. Some in the gamethread said this half-joking but I am dead serious.

    If the C's get a shot for Davis, I hope Ainge does everything in his power to keep Smart around. If this improvement is real, he is the third "star" on an Irving-Davis team. The guy's skillset, his basketball IQ and his motor make him a perfect fit for any team but especially that one. I have no doubt that he helps a team win a ring someday - I hope its the Cs.
     
  23. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Smart is undervalued. Those aren't contracts you trade.
     
  24. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I think this is mostly a function of evolving team roles. Kyrie has been much more of a facilitator this year than last:
    • 7.0 APG vs career 5.6/last year 5.1
    • 7.7 A/36 vs career 6.0/last year 5.7
    • 36.1 AST% vs career 30.6/last year 30.7
    Unfortunately, it will be very hard to grab AD while keeping Smart.
     
  25. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    We’ve all been saying for a couple of years now that if he could just be average from three with better shot selection, he could be a critical piece for a team with championship aspirations. I had mostly given up hope coming into this season, but alas, he’s doing that and then some. It’s tempting to peg him as the current version going forward, but realistically the question is how much regression can we expect going forward. If he settles at ~34%, he’s still a value; if he’s closer to his 30% career average, it’s tougher to be giving him starter and crunch time minutes.

    Dude is already one of my favorite all-time Celtics though. That combo of attention to the details of dirty work, infectious energy, edginess, and unselfishness is such a great thing for team cohesion- Draymond, Rodman, Artest, Ben Wallace- but it’s rare to see it in a guard. He’s an awesome teammate who’s giving borderline all-star level value in ways that’ll never get him selected to an actual all star game. Plus he loves playing for Boston and is really active in the community. AD is a game changer, but I’d be bummed to see Marcus go.
     
  26. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Not sure I agree. It's Tatum, draft picks and a sign and trade Rozier, plus a few other things to make the salaries work. We're not signing Rozier to a big deal to keep him behind (hopefully) Kyrie.
     
  27. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    If it came down to that, and Rozier/Morris S&Ts weren't available, they'd probably try to build the package around Tatum+Brown and fewer/no picks, rather than dealing Smart. I love Jaylen, but Smart has a lot more value than he does to an AD/Kyrie core, is only 2.5 years older, and won't be getting paid $20M+ on his next contract.
     
  28. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    3,486
    Alternatively, don't the Celtics have Theis' Early Bird rights? No one is going to sign him for league-average salary straight-up, so offering him a Keith Bogans-style contract to complete the trade is an option.

    Yabu at $3.1M and Theis at $XM to complete the trade gets you most of the way. If you do the Tatum+Brown and no picks option, those two, Yabu, and Theis on a 2/10 Keith Bogans deal gets you right around 80% of AD's salary.

    Baynes picking up his player option in order to be dealt would work too, and is better for NO, but don't know why he'd do that, unless he really wants PT.

    Edit: I'm mediocre on CBA stuff, so feel free to pick this apart.
     
  29. Fishy1

    Fishy1 Member SoSH Member

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    3,284
    Right -- as much as we're enamored with Marcus's improvement, we have to be just a realistic about the possibility that he'll regress (and he probably will!). But how far is a fair question, too: will he return to being the all-time-terrible shooter he was the first four years in the league?

    I don't think so, not if his confidence hangs around. He's better around the rim this year, shooting an unremarkable, but league average percentage there (56%), and Smart is now shooting better (barely) than Tatum on 3 point attempts in a nearly equal number of attempts. I think he passes the eye test around the rim too. Smart used to get blocked all the time and blow easy layups and now I've adjusted enough that I'm not worried about his shooting out of the pick and roll. As HRB pointed out, his shot selection is also way improved. 24% of his three pointers were unassisted this year. Now it's only 10%.

    His shot chart is revealing, too. He's shooting best, relative to the league, from the top of the key, where he's at 45% (league average is 33%). He's about average from the wings and from the left corner he's 42% and the right only 33%. But that adds up to a shooter who can make from everywhere. He's only taken 17 bad mid-range shots all year.

    And ditto to the bolded. I haven't been able to watch the games lately but those highlights. Running him off screens, taking three pointers out of the pick and roll. He's playing with confidence now and he's not forcing it, and of course as always there's a highlight reel steal to accompany it all. The bottom line is most great teams have players that sacrifice like he does.
     
  30. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    1,357
    The trey he made near the end of Q4 last night should count twice. Game winning play, like so many plays that Smart makes, whether they show up in the box score (or even in the advanced stats) or not..
     
  31. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I think there is some vital synergy there with pairing Smart and Kyrie on the floor so often.
    It helps Kyrie because he can play off the ball more frequently, plus Smart can pick up the challenging opponent guard on the D end.
    It helps Smart as he can focus on the little things: passing, D, PNR, rebounding. It also means that the ball won't be in Smart's hands when shot clock or periods are winding down (hence no futile 3's heaved up at the buzzer).
     
  32. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    16,001
    How about, Marcus Smart shooting league average+ from 3P is the most valuable non-Rookie, multi-year contract in the NBA? :)
     
  33. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    +1
    This is a very good point that gets lost when discussing NBA players stats in a vacuum. Meshing players together that have varying skill sets are important to building a better team. While many would have ranked Jaylen and Rozier ahead of Smart in "value" to begin the year. Off/Def net ratings show a different picture.

    Smart + Kyrie > Brown + Kyrie and Rozier + Kyrie in 2017-18.
    This season with Smart shooting the 3 at a higher % it's even more pronounced.

    This is why I question when people say Danny will match a $20MM/yr deal for Terry Rozier this off-season when he is paying $12.5MM/yr for Marcus Smart. Not sure why Danny would add a bench player like Rozier for more money than a more efficient Marcus?

    https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season&GroupQuantity=2&TeamID=1610612738&sort=GROUP_NAME&dir=-1

    https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&GroupQuantity=2&TeamID=1610612738&sort=GROUP_NAME&dir=-1
     
  34. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    There's 3 options for Rozier:

    1-Traded in AD package
    2-Lose him to FA
    3-Sign him because we're at DEFCON 2 because Irving left.

    If he's here next year, it's because Kyrie isn't.
     
  35. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Agree.
     
  36. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I think Rozier is a BYC player which would limit ability to match salaries with him. I don't understand the cap though so not sure.

    I think Smart was a valuable piece even last year with the bad shooting, so I can live with some regression.
     
  37. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Will we know if Kyrie is leaving/staying before making a decision on Rozier? It's possible Rozier leaves and Kyrie leaves after him, leaving us with neither.
     
  38. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Can set your mind at ease there: we have full control over Rozier's process, and aren't trying to sign any FAs, so don't have to renounce his cap hold (as they did with Olynyk in order to sign Hayward).

    If we haven't successfully traded for AD, and Kyrie is thus non-committal on July 1, a team could swoop in and give Rozier an RFA offer. Then the Celtics would have 3 days in which to decide whether to match. Presumably during that time they'd push Kyrie to make up his mind. Teams can also extend the 3-day window by requiring a physical--the Wizards did this to screw the Nets and tie up their cap space for a week when the Nets made Otto Porter a big RFA offer. I'm not sure whether this loophole was closed--hasn't been iirc.

    Keep in mind, the timeline is only this tight if a team signs Rozier to an offer sheet as soon as July 1st hits. In reality, teams tend to do RFA later, since they don't want to tie up their own cap for a week, even if the original team won't match.

    TLDR; we will almost certainly have time to sign Rozier once we know Kyrie's decision.

    (Obviously if the Celtics complete an AD deal, it seems Kyrie will re-sign and all this will be moot).
     
  39. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    I think you are right on this. If used in a sign and trade, only 50% of his new salary would work for matching purposes. AD makes 27 million next year, so you have to get up to around 21.6 million in matching salary. Tatum (7.8) + Yabu (3.1) + Rozier (21.4) + picks works. But that is a whole hell of a lot to pay Terry Rozier.
     
  40. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Crazy stat.



    Combing through the NBA's matchup stats and I have Marcus Smart defending centers for 133 possessions this season, on which he has surrendered a total of...

    ...9 points.
     
  41. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  42. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    31,371
    I do not want this guy going anywhere
     
  43. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    It's been said before but I can't see Ainge/Zarren/Stevens offering him for Davis nor does he make sense for the Pelicans unless they view him as a culture building piece.

    I don't know about here but he is a patron saint of sorts for (Weird) Celtics Twitter - he is an icon for hardcore fans.

    More importantly, a Smart who can do all the things he does defending, passing and chaos-ing while shooting 36% from deep at his salary is one of the best bargains in the NBA. I think he stays. He seems to be integral to getting #18. And after all he's done, he deserves to be a part of it too.
     
  44. luckiestman

    luckiestman Son of the Harpy SoSH Member

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    Wilbon was on with Pierce a while back and was telling Pierce something like “I covered you, I know you, you’re a Celtic....I don’t know if Kyrie is, he’s a great player, but I don’t get that feeling”

    Smart is a Celtic
     
  45. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    A Smart that can shoot acceptably is Dennis Johnson-level Celticdom.
     
  46. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Not arguing the Smart point obviously, but Kyrie has only been here a year and a half. If he signs on July 1, then he'll make his mark and potentially his Celtics legacy.
     
  47. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Smart is just such a unique player. There basically are no 6'3" guys with his combination of hustle, strength, defensive awareness, and irrational confidence.
     
  48. Spelunker

    Spelunker Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    And random assortment of skills.

     
  49. TripleOT

    TripleOT Member SoSH Member

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    I wonder if Smart can dunk off a flip. That would be an awesome dunk. Throw yourself a lob, flip, land, jump off both feet, catch the lob and dunk it.
     
  50. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    last 52 games: 28.2 mpg, .423/.388/.798 9.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.8 steals
    He's been shooting .407 from 3 since 12/15, 35 games.

    He is now at .412/.368/.786 for the year. From 3 he is 100/272. He would have to miss his next 123 3PA to match the .253 he put up in 15-16. He would have to miss his next 81 3PA to match the .283 he shot in 16-17. He would have to miss his next 60 to match last year's .301.

    It's almost to the point now where you want him shooting 3s. He's taking 2.7 less shots per game this year than the last 2 seasons, but is attempting the same amount of 3s (4.2, 4.6, 4.3). Wish Rozier would learn from that.
     

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