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Getting Smart with Statistics

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by JakeRae, Jan 8, 2018.

  1. OurF'ingCity

    OurF'ingCity Member SoSH Member

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    Again, I am fairly sure (but not positive) that the CBA does not allow this type of gamesmanship in terms of either front-loading or back-loading contracts.
     
  2. bakahump

    bakahump Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Moops, How much would you pay for Marcus Smart? Forget that he has no offers THIS year.

    Do you think he will get an offer NEXT year? For how much?

    In my idea if we took advantage (as is our right) of the QO and paid him 6 million this year, and we found ourselves negotiating with the UFA Smart Next year (who might well be pissed, Fairly or not, at the Celts), How much would you pay? Would you match a 13.5 Million per year for 3 year offer? Do you think any other teams would offer 3x13.5+ Next year?

    Thats Exactly what the backloaded contract I summerized above would do. With 2 (imho) perks. 1 We would be getting a "Happy Smart" next year, and 2 we would be signing him at a Discount rate relative to length of the contract (because Salaries always go up).
    We would have a strong Bench guy (and potential starting PG.....even with shooting woes) locked up in the event that Kyrie (and Rozier) left. His contract would be certain and known value (and there is value in certainty) which could allow us to plan our other extensions.

    Now if we cant backload.....then this is all for naught.
     
  3. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Why would I forget that he has no offers this year? That fact is a huge part of the negotiation. That 6.1 million for one year is the starting point of all negotiations.
     
  4. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    No, it doesn't. I believe he maximum yearly decrease is 4.5%. You can offer a 15% signing bonus up front, but the bonus spread over the life of the deal for cap purposes. I don't think a deal like the one Nick Collison had would be possible under the new CBA.
     
    #604 Big John, Jul 13, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2018
  5. Swedgin

    Swedgin Member SoSH Member

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    Assuming a team is using Bird rights, decreases like raises are capped at 8% per year. You can have declining deals. The contact IT signed with the Suns was one.
     
  6. OurF'ingCity

    OurF'ingCity Member SoSH Member

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    To provide an actual source for my earlier post, see http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q53: "The raise limit also applies to salary decreases -- for example, since the Larry Bird exception limits raises to 8% of the first-year salary, the salary may also decrease by up to 8% of the first-year salary."

    So the most a contract can vary in either direction for a player with Bird rights is 8% per year.

    Edit: or what many people said before me :oops:
     
  7. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    4/46 is essentially a touch over MLE money, and if they could lock him up for that, which is fair market for someone like him, the contract would have been signed already. The problem is that last fall, when trying to negotiate an extension, Boston was offering more than that. And almost certainly so that he would have sufficient salary to act as ballast in a trade on July 1st.

    Unfortunately for Marcus his agent completely misread the market and decided that if Boston were offering four years for $13-$14 million per (which is what was leaked last fall) then they'd do even better by going to free agency. But because of the way that CBA trade mechanics work, Marcus can't be the salary ballast of a trade until the midway point of the season (essentially for trade deadline deals), where the available options are almost certainly going to be other players like Marcus and not the sort of guys that you'd need a contract like that for.

    So he lost that premium value to Boston. He's going to either need to bite the bullet and settle for his over-MLE money, or play out the string on a QO and hope that he does better next summer. I'm sure Happy is pushing Marcus to take the latter route.

    Unfortunately for Marcus the squeeze on roleplayers is going to last another year as the free agent market next year is pretty flooded with better players. So next summer he's likely to end up with an offer resembling that just-over MLE pay scale, only he'll have sacrificed five million and a year of his prime just to get the same deal he could have had this summer.

    It's really shocking that Happy still has clients given just how awful he is at reading the market.
     
  8. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    The MLE is 8.6 million this year. A 4/46 is quite a bit away from a touch over MLE money
     
  9. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    A 4-year deal starting at next year's MLE (9%) with 8% raises is a shade over $40M.
     
  10. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    That's the first year salary. Over four years it works out to around $39 million. So, yes, 46 is a touch over MLE money. And a lot less than what Boston was rumoured to have offered last fall. But that contract offer made sense if you wanted $13-$14 million available to form the cash basis for a trade for someone like Leonard or Davis
     
  11. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    My math say 38.9 million. I do suck at math sometimes though
     
  12. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    In fairness that's not what he's saying, he's saying that Rozier and Irving can't really be on the floor at the same time (especially come playoff time). And due to a lack of size that's probably true. I mean it wouldn't be as bad as the Lil' Zeke/Avery backcourt, but it's still pretty tough in the switchy era because opponents would have two guys to hunt out.
     
  13. Van Everyman

    Van Everyman Member SoSH Member

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    Yes, they traded him before it became a problem.
    No disagreement -- and please note that I was not advocating for a long-term deal for Smart.

    And listen, I get that Butler is an extreme example. But the kind of stuff people are saying here--that he knows it's a business, that there's no incentive to sulk, that Smart will want to prove his worth by busting his ass next season, etc.--is the exact same stuff people said in the Butler thread when that was going on. Or, to choose another example, John Lackey, when he had the $500K season on the books.

    At the end of the day, athletes are human. Some of these guys are wired really differently, and no one really knows how this is going to play out. But pretty much all of them like to get paid and they get insulted when they are not paid what they feel they are worth. Some of them bite their tongues and play through it. Others sulk and play like shit (Butler). And still others are so loud about it that they effectively force their way out of town (Lackey and maybe even IT).

    All I'm saying is that if Ainge thinks Smart might be in one of the latter camps if he has no choice but to play under the QO, he might consider moving him. I'm not sure why that's a terribly controversial view.
     
  14. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    I suck at math too but Excel usually gets it right.

    9
    9.72
    10.4976
    11.337408

    Total: 40.555008
     
  15. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    Classic recency bias from McPickle. One team last season, the Cavs in the ECF (specifically Lebron) hunted out Rozier on defense. Lebron is an outlier. At the end of the day, defense didn't even cost them that series, it was Game 7 shooting from 3 guards. Rozier's defense is more than fine, while Kyrie's is below average.

    Terry isn't a problem, has shown massive improvement every year and has not hit his ceiling. We know what Smart is, a great defensive player that can't shoot. The rest of league also knows that Smart has hit his ceiling and isn't buying.
     
  16. southshoresoxfan

    southshoresoxfan Member SoSH Member

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    I can’t believe anyone is advocating offer Smart long term dollars. It’s been likely since pre FA this was an option for Smart. If he plays well he will get paid (not by Boston).

    I think it’s QO then a huge over pay by a middling team who whiffs on their pipe dream fantasies of KD, Butler, Kawhi, Kyrie etc.

    Reminds me quite a bit of the Malcolm Butler situation.
     
  17. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    If you don't like Smart enough to keep him, do a sign and trade now, instead of letting him walk for nothing in June, 2019.
     
  18. southshoresoxfan

    southshoresoxfan Member SoSH Member

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    Sign and trade for what? And if you do that his salary is half what you sign him for in the trade.

    Smart on a title contending team next year >>> whatever middling asset you bring back for him.
     
  19. TripleOT

    TripleOT Member SoSH Member

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    There's a lot of long term value in not paying the luxtax this year. Getting Marcus to settle for $6 million instead off $10m or more could mean the owners save $50 million or more in seasons down the road, because the team staying under the tax line kicks in the repeater tax a year later.

    Assuming Kyrie accepts a max deal next summer, and Brown and Tatum both sign big deals here when eligible, the owners are looking at hefty luxtax payments as the team contends for titles. Teams are running out of room to give Smart an offer sheet, and vets are signing for crumbs as roster slots diminish.

    If Smart's feelings are hurt and he decides to bolt next season, that the risk the Celtics will take. If Kyrie chooses to leave, they can make eight figure/season offers to Smart and Rozier and try to fill the hole left by Kyrie bolting. If Smart goes elsewhere, they can extend Rozier, and pick the next franchise PG in the draft with the Sacto pick.
     
  20. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    The problem is that when the 6'1" Rozier and the 6'3"ish Irving are on the floor together, it opens up offensive options for the other team. In essence there are two guys that you can try to get your scoring 6'6"-6'8" guys on to.

    Terry's problems weren't about his defense, per se, they were about his size. He just doesn't have a lot of it. And Irving may be 6'3"ish in his sneakers, but he isn't a long 6'3"ish, which causes him difficulty with taller/longer guys. So, no, they can't be on the floor together in the playoffs. That's what he was saying.
     
  21. southshoresoxfan

    southshoresoxfan Member SoSH Member

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    Good news. On a healthy Celtics team they won’t be.
     
  22. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    It's certainly subject to change but right now the 2019 draft is looking to be pretty wing heavy and light on PGs. We'll see if someone emerges like Trae Young did.
     
  23. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    So you are saying that Smart might help you win a title next year, but he's not cost-effective after that?
    I suppose a sign and trade is impractical because Smart would have to agree to the "sign" part, and he won't unless the money is right.
     
  24. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    <sigh> This was mcpickl's point, on a healthy Celtics team Rozier won't get a lot of playing time and once you lose the fall negotiating window he doesn't have a lot of value. So you should trade him now while he still has it.

    This is also not my opinion. At this point in time, with Brooklyn's move to clear up their 2020 payroll and create room for two max salary slots (and possibly more if they can convert that Denver #1 and Crabbe into additional 2020 cap space), and the rumors swirling around Butler/Irving and the reality that Irving and Durant are good buddies, I expect Boston to get Smart inked to a three or four year deal and to extend Rozier this fall as a hedge against the worst case scenario coming to pass next summer. Because at this point there's enough smoke that they need to start planning for a fire.
     
  25. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Why are using 9 million for year 1?

    It has been set at 8.641
     
  26. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    Ok cool. I'll fall back on my original premise then...It's beyond SILLY to start doling out minutes in a playoff series 9 months down the road. We have no idea who the opponent would be or if they would be going small/fast. But I'm 100% confident that Brad Stevens would recognize height/matchup situation and go with the suitable match up. There will be plenty of playoff minutes for Kyrie and Rozier to coexist on the same team.
     
  27. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    My point was that you were mischaracterizing his argument. And he's not even "doling out minutes" so much as saying that "this defensive alignment sucks motherfucking donkey balls and shouldn't ever happen unless there are no other possible options".

    And, again, I don't even agree with him on this. I've been saying for more than a month now that I expect Boston to keep Smart and Rozier around because the Brooklyn situation is officially a threat to them (from the Nets perspective building a contender around Irving/Durant is a twofer in that it damages the principle contenders in the process). If Irving leaves you really don't want to be turning the keys over to Rozier and scrap heap guys much less just scrap heap guys.
     
  28. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    Yes, my bad. I thought the $9.073 number was for the upcoming year. Lousy eyesight.
     
  29. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    OK that was his argument

    Maybe he can tell me who we are playing in 9 months in the playoffs? Here are some potential playoff matchups I'm fine with Irving/Rozier being on the floor together.

    Toronto- Lowry, Van Fleet - fine
    Philly - McConnell, Redick - fine
    Milwaukee - Bledsoe, Dellavadova - fine
    Wizards- Satoransky, Beal - fine
    Pacers- Collison, Joseph - fine
    etc

    My counterpoint is what pair is guarding Irving/Rozier? Because Terry and Kyrie are torching that group.
     
  30. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    You aren't letting him walk for nothing. We are favorites to reach the NBA Finals from the EC.....there is huge value in having Smart play a bench role this season.
     
  31. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    Man, if Brad Stevens gets to hand pick the opponents lineups, he's even better than I thought.

    You picked the best possible scenarios for your Kyrie/Rozier lineups here, and some of them don't really exist. Why would the Pacers play Collison/Joseph together or Milwaukee with Bledsoe/Dellavedova? They respectively played a combined 51 and 45 minutes per game in the playoffs last year. You'll see those guys playing with a bigger guy almost always. Satoransky played 10 minutes a game.

    Not worried about your best case lineups. Much more worried about when one of your two small guards are forced to check Derozan, Simmons, Middleton, Beal and Oladipo in those matchups.

    Worse, it takes a lot of defensive energy to get out of switches putting your smaller players in disadvantageous matchups, trying to do it with two of them on the floor at the same time seems near impossible.

    As for the doling out minutes in a playoff series 9 months down the road, yeah I'm taking an educated guess on what the rotation might look like in the playoffs. Why is that weird? Isn't almost everything we do on this board guessing on what might happen in the future? What am I allowed to talk about? Are we only allowed to talk about things that have already happened?

    And piss off with your classic recency bias bullshit.
     
  32. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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  33. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    IMO they don’t have a huge need for another PG even if Rozier and Smart leave next year. If Kyrie stays, any one of a number of wings they have plus Horford can run the point with the 2nd unit. If they get a top 10 pick from Sacramento, I’d be more than happy drafting a wing like Reddish/Barrett/Little/Hachimura and worrying about PG later in the draft or another Euro player. They’ve been very successful getting diamonds in the rough over there.
     
  34. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Justin Termine and Eddie Johnson aren't the most analytical NBA pundits out there but they seem pretty well connected to the rumor mill/inside baseball stories floating around the league. Today on NBA Radio, they were discussing Irving as part of the Butler situation and they made it sound like there is, indeed, more than just smoke about Kyrie leaving the Celtics after this season.

    If this is more than just speculation, I suspect Ainge et al are aware of it and are planning accordingly. One tell may well be how the Smart situation is resolved as well how they deal with Rozier heading into the fall.
     
  35. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    The way the NBA is headed, at some point a team is just going to say "f it" and roll out an all-wing lineup. If you have wings who can run elite PnRs, as Hayward already can, and Tatum is on track to learn, at a certain point you start to question whether it's worth having a sub 6-5 guy on the floor at all.

    The Celtics clearly want to keep Kyrie, since he's never been played off the floor in a playoff series, and is massively valuable offensively in crunchtime. But if he is gone due to injury or FA choice, I wouldn't be surprised if they punt on the PG position altogether in crunchtime lineups (assuming continued development from Tatum).
     
  36. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    The main tell, of course, would be if Kyrie gets traded.
     
  37. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    I'm glad we're still doing this.
     
  38. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    just looked it up...VanVleet, I guess?
     
  39. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    there was a whole bit during the playoffs about how if the NBA thing doesn't work for him, he's going to start a moving business called Nick Van Vleet's Van Fleet.

    you kinda had to be there.
     
  40. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    My mobile browser tends to respell his name as Van Fleet, when I’m on the tablet I catch it, on the phone I occasionally miss it.
     
  41. JohnnyTheBone

    JohnnyTheBone Member SoSH Member

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    Hopefully it's because of these guys, who Zep it up in fine style.

    ROCK!
     
  42. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    This is partly why I was intrigued by a Kawhi/Kyrie trade that would never happen.

    Horford
    Tatum
    Kawhi
    Brown
    Hayward

    The Death Switch Lineup.
     
  43. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    If Kyrie knew he was in Boston only through this season would he have spent the past week in Vegas with the young Boston kids? There is plenty of reason to believe that these Knicks/Butler rumors has little merit and that Kyrie is loving where he is now. Aside from him skipping game 7 and hearing unbiased rumors what else suggests Kyrie is planning on bolting?
     
  44. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I was sitting across from him and Jaylen during the game, and they seemed to be having a great time. I think if his contract came up today, he'd snap re-sign. The worry would be that Knox develops well, Porzingis comes back strong, Ntilikina is ok, and someone like Kawhi decides that NYC is the place for him to get his big shoe deal. That's a lot of pieces to come together, but I could see him having a change of heart in that circumstance.

    Of course, the Knicks could also continue to be a tire fire, Jimmy Butler could look like he's on the downside of his aging curve, the Celtics could win a championship and all be in love with each other, etc etc. It's just going to have to play out.
     
  45. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    To be clear, I am not saying that Kyrie is leaving. However some people connected to the league seem to think there is a reasonable chance he is gone after this year. Termine and Johnson aren't the only ones either based on the reports we've seen.

    As to whether he would be spending time in Vegas with his current teammates if he were looking to bolt - who knows?

    Guys fraternize with each other around the league all the time. It doesn't matter if they are current or former teammates or guys they've come up playing against in AAU or their one year in college. We discuss this all the time but this generation of NBA players has a far different relationship with other players than generations of yore. I think its encouraging that Kyrie is with the "kids" in Vegas but I strongly suspect the Celtics braintrust is still planning for a scenario where Irving moves on after the season.

    To bring this full circle, let's see how they resolve the Smart situation and then we can start to handicap the chances of Irving staying long-term.
     
  46. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    So how long do we expect this High Noon to drag on?
     
  47. cheech13

    cheech13 Member SoSH Member

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    The qualifying offer expires on October 1st, so he'd need to find another offer or sign it by then.
     
  48. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Another 2 1/2 months of nothingburgers.
     
  49. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    Sherriff Dan is sitting back at the local saloon with his feet kicked up waiting for Hapalong Walters to show up with an offer sheet from the next county.

     
  50. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    If it's obvious that anyone with cap space isn't interested, does it make sense for him to wait? Maybe hope for a training camp injury?
     

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