Dismiss Notice
Guest, I have a big favor to ask you. We've been working very hard to establish ourselves on social media. If you like/follow our pages it would be a HUGE help to us. SoSH on Facebook and Inside the Pylon Thanks! Nip

Getting Smart with Statistics

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by JakeRae, Jan 8, 2018.

  1. Big John

    Big John lurker

    Messages:
    840
    You don't draft Doncic to become the next Korver. You draft him to run the offense and to create easy shots for others with his penetration and passing. Can Fox run an NBA offense? I'll believe it when I see it.
     
  2. bakahump

    bakahump Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    5,852
    How does Doncic compare to Simmons tools wise?
     
  3. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    807
    Not close athletically, but far better shooter.
     
  4. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,423
    He's a 19 year-old who shot 80%ish for free throws and has a nice stroke. I would happily take a sizeable bet that Doncic is shooting over 37% from 3 by his 3rd season.
     
  5. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    32,431


    League source: The #Kings have no interest in #Celtics’ RFA Marcus Smart.
     
  6. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    27,055
    Good. He has to come back on the QO now.
     
  7. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    32,431
    Mark Murphy said that Danny Ainge called Smart today to check in. According to Murphy, Smart would "consider" taking the 4-year offer from the Celtics that was on the table last October which would have been more than the Exum deal($33 million).

     
  8. The Social Chair

    The Social Chair Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,836
    I would pass on anything but the QO. Keep the cap space open next year as a contingency for Kyrie leaving.
     
  9. HowBoutDemSox

    HowBoutDemSox Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,066
    As others have noted, that’s really looking like agent malpractice for turning down that extension if it was really 4 years and greater than $11 million per.
     
  10. cheech13

    cheech13 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    767
    Malpractice? The following guards signed four year-deals for as much or more last summer: Tim Hardaway, Patty Mills, Dion Waiters, and Tony Snell. Even taking into account that this summer would be tighter money-wise an $11MM per year deal is hardly so robust that you jump at it and forego free agency all together.

    Agent malpractice is Nerlens Noel turning down $70 million and signing for the veteran's minimum, or Demarcus Cousins turning down $40 million AFTER his Achilles injury.
     
    #510 cheech13, Jul 10, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2018
  11. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,210
    As others have pointed out, even if Kyrie leaves, we won't have enough cap space next year to do anything all that meaningful with it. If Kyrie leaves, the best path forward for Boston is almost certainly having Smart and Rozier on the team on new contracts.
     
  12. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    7,470
    Unless Horford bolts too.
     
  13. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    27,055
    This is where Ainge has a lot more information than we do because Kyrie's decision next summer will have a very material impact on this franchise, perhaps as early as this summer as it might impact their decision on Smart.
     
  14. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,579
    It depends how he is utilized. If you play Doncic off the ball and he's able to catch-and-shoot I agree that he will improve on last years numbers. If he is being asked to initiate or run an offense the struggles in creating separation and poor shot selection that plagued him this past year against lesser athletes is going to be a continuing problem for him.

    I like him as an off-the-ball complementary wing who can be a secondary ball handler and passer. This is where he has a chance to make the greatest impact which is likely how Dallas will utilize him. If another team drafted him to be their lead guard and run a team he would have been destined to be a bust imo.
     
  15. Van Everyman

    Van Everyman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,501
    Can Horford leave after year 3? If so, why would he? Is he going to get max dollars somewhere else?
     
  16. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    7,470
    Spotrac says yes. Doesn't mean it's right.
     
  17. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,579
    Yes, his 4 year deal included a player option after Year 3. I'd expect him to opt-out for sure to secure additional years on his deal...….that doesn't mean that he won't already have a deal from Ainge already in place to add a year or two. The question then becomes whether Horford wants more long-term security which I don't expect him to receive from Ainge.
     
  18. Sprowl

    Sprowl Emile de Becque Dope

    Messages:
    29,769
    So you're saying he's Lonzo Doncic?
     
  19. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,345
    I’ll part ways with you there, no one’s going to throw Horford a max deal then, and I suspect that he’s going to want to play for the defending champions, even if it means taking a little less.
     
  20. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,579
    I agree with this. Nobody is going to offer an aging Horford a max even though his game projects to age well. Even if he wants to remain in Boston and/or take less.....he'd still be likely, and smart, to opt-out of his current deal after Year 3 to accomplish this.
     
  21. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    14,188
    No, he's Luka Turner but with a much sweeter stroke.
     
  22. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,456
    I am skeptical that Horfrord opts out of his 34 million dollars. BOS would have to offer something like 4/105 or something for him to even think about it, right? I could see him easily getting a 3/80 or something the following year, so it needs to be close to that total (114) for him to consider.
     
  23. benhogan

    benhogan self-effacing SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,025
    Just back from Vegas Summer League, definitely worth it for any of you NBA junkies out there.

    Spoke to my friend that is the cap guy/Director of Ops for a Western Conf team about Marcus Smart. My friend has been active this Summer but they are capped out and not in the running for Marcus. His 2 cents on Smart situation was this: teams have the right to be stubborn during restricted free agency. I asked him why does Exum get love day 1 (3 for $33M) and Smart doesn't get a sniff? His answer was the Jazz value Exum WAY MORE than the Celtics value Smart. He also added that Smart's agent is working really hard to get some interest, so its wait and see.

    So no real actual news there, but I got a sense that the Celtics are sticking with the QO.
     
  24. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    27,055
    Thanks for the update. Seems pretty clear here that Ainge is not likely to budge unless Smart shows a willingness to agree to a team-friendly long-term deal. I think it's the right approach since we'll have Rozier's RFA rights next summer as a backup plan if Kyrie unexpectedly bolts.
     
  25. benhogan

    benhogan self-effacing SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,025
    Ainge/Zarren/Wyc are shrewd cold-hearted mercenaries, the rest of the League is cognizant of that. It's amazing how many teams/executives act like utter buffoons with such a tight cap.
     
  26. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,579
    It doesn't make sense for a player of his age to delay what will still be a good-sized multi-year deal and risking that $80m (I'm just going with your future for sale of discussion) on his Age 34 season. What if he had an injury now he'd be entering FA at 35 coming off an injury? He would be foolish not to lock up as many guaranteed years at as young an age as possible......which is why an opt-out seems like the only logical play on his part to me.
     
  27. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    32,431


    Source: Several teams - inc the #Grizzlies and #Nets - have inquired about a S-T w/the #Celtics for RFA Marcus Smart, who has already met with Brooklyn. Source also says that Boston has had zero communication or contact w/Smart.

    What would a S+T look like with either team? I'd be asking for either Joe Harris straight up or both D'Angelo Russell and Hollis-Jefferson from Brooklyn. From Memphis, I'd want Jaren Jackson and JayMychal Green.
     
    #527 RedOctober3829, Jul 11, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2018
  28. Swedgin

    Swedgin Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    220
    When is the last time a RFA was signed and traded in these circumstances (i.e. not part of a larger deal as salary filler)?
     
  29. JCizzle

    JCizzle Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,832
    I think BRobb has it right:

    https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2018/07/10/taking-stock-marcus-smart-saga-around-league/

     
  30. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    29,223
    Ainge specifically came out and said he called Marcus to check-in in order to counteract that exact thing. If anyone won’t be played it’s Ainge.
     
  31. steveluck7

    steveluck7 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,533
    Well, Smart is represented by Happy Walters, the same agent who was advising Nerlens Noel when he turned down the $70 million. I wouldn’t rule out gross incompetence in this situation.
     
  32. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,423
    It seems like Marcus, unfortunately, hired some really dumb guys as agents. Not dumb as in "I don't like them", but dumb as in "would do very poorly on an IQ test." I feel sort of bad for him to be honest, since he's gotten horrible advice and it's too late to change representation.

    I mean, when your agent's big power play is to leak rumors that another team might make an RFA offer, you're not dealing with the sharpest knives in the drawer.
     
  33. JohnnyTheBone

    JohnnyTheBone Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    11,829
    Brutal. Happy is not smart, and Smart is not happy.
     
  34. Van Everyman

    Van Everyman Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,501
    Let’s see Marcus get no actual offers before high-fiving each other. It’s still early.
     
  35. Big John

    Big John lurker

    Messages:
    840
    It's easy to criticize Smart and his agent for completely misreading the market, but NBA owners have handed out many millions to much less deserving players.

    I don't want to see him leave. He's one of the few players who almost routinely does unexpected things, from diving on the floor for a steal when the other team is attempting to roll the ball up, to getting up from flat on his back with a ninja move. He's entertaining.
     
  36. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    27,055
    There are like 4 teams with cap space and none of them are reported to be interested. His last chance before coming back to the QO is seemingly to try to drum up interest in a S&T but that adds additional complexity since the other team would have to have something Ainge wants.

    I think it’s only a matter of time before he accepts the QO and tries again next summer.
     
  37. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,456
    Are we trading Marcus Smart or Kyrie Irving in your hypothetical?
     
  38. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    14,188
    bravo
     
  39. Buster Olney the Lonely

    Buster Olney the Lonely Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,903
    Also, Nerlens never played in New Orleans and has seen tons of Ls in his short career.
     
  40. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    32,431
    Grizzlies have very few contracts that Ainge would be interested in and Green/Jackson would be the two that come closest to matching salaries. Nets could use a lot of cap space to acquire Smart but Ainge needs an asset or two to make him want to trade Smart.
     
  41. cardiacs

    cardiacs Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,032
    The incomparable JohnnyTheBone!
     
  42. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,456
    I am not quite sure how to respond.
     
  43. benhogan

    benhogan self-effacing SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,025
    Agreed. I don't want to see Marcus go BUT
    Happy Walters completely misread RFA and how Danny & Co. would operate. The Celtics aren't in the business of handing out overpriced long-dated contracts in a buyers market.

    Banking on NBA owners/Executives to continue to write "undeserving" contracts isn't a clever strategy, especially to an RFA.

    the proverb Once bitten, twice shy applies here and I'd expect all those NBA owners burned by contracts handed out to Mozgov, Dang, Turner, Thompson, Batum, Hill, Plumlee, etc will be less inclined to hand out "undeserving" deals in the future.

    anyways 1980s glam rock band Great White does a much better job describing the effects of signing overpriced free agents then myself.

     
    #543 benhogan, Jul 11, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2018
  44. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    27,055
    I think you've just described why a S&T with the Nets and Grizzlies ain't happening. Neither team is going to give up anything of value for Marcus Smart, certainly not a Russell or recent top 4 pick.
     
  45. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,345
    Technically speaking Russell isn’t anything of value.
     
  46. Big John

    Big John lurker

    Messages:
    840
    I'm not advocating an overpay for Smart. I'm advocating a fair market multi-year offer. If he turns that down, fine, he can play for the QO and try again next year. I just don't want to drive the kid out of town by insulting him with a lowball offer.
     
  47. benhogan

    benhogan self-effacing SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,025
    So you're advocating the Celtics should bid against themselves. Thus giving Marcus and Happy the option to shop the Celtics offer around to other NBA teams to see if the other teams will beat it. Danny/Wyc/Zarren are better off letting teams like the Knicks and Sacremento do things like that.

    In RFA, a fair market multi-year offer comes from another NBA team. Then the Celtics get the OPTION to match it or decline it.

    BTW Anything offered below $12-14M/yr would be an insult to Smart.
    "To be honest, I'm worth more than $12-14 million," Smart told Jackie MacMullan of ESPN. "Just for the things I do on the court that don't show up on the stat sheet. You don't find guys like that. I always leave everything on the court, every game. Tell me how many other players can say that."
     
  48. Big John

    Big John lurker

    Messages:
    840
    Is there another team that currently has the cap space to make Smart an offer above the non-taxpayer MLE? I don't think so, which means there are no teams to which Smart can shop an offer starting at more than $9M. And the Celtics have no incentive to do a sign and trade unless there is a trade proposal they can't refuse.

    So let's say Ainge plays hardball and forces Smart to accept the QO. Then what? Maybe the time to lock him up is now, because next year he's unrestricted and its a crap shoot. You are bidding against next year's potential suitors, not against this year's suitors or against yourself.

    If you don't particularly value Smart-- he certainly has his detractors here and elsewhere-- then it doesn't matter what you do.
     
  49. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

    Messages:
    15,579
    Who are his detractors? I've been as adamant as anyone on this board for over a year that Ainge isn't going to pay Smart to a big long-term deal. It isn't because I don't value Smart the player......it is because I don't (and I don't feel Ainge does) overpay for the role he'll be filling moving forward as well as the long-term opportunity cost with us needing to sign as many as 5 better players to larger deals during the course of Smart's contract while factoring in the deadly repeated tax which wouldn't allow this to happen.

    Ainge already made his play in not valuing Smart's role like Utah did Exum's or Chicago with LaVine. His play was the QO and now it's on Smart to find an offer. It's still early but as of right now Ainge is winning his QO bet.
     
  50. Big John

    Big John lurker

    Messages:
    840
    Would you sign Smart to a long-term deal starting at the non-taxpayer MLE? I doubt if Smart would accept that, but it's the staring point, isn't it? If that's too rich for you, then you may value Smart as a player, but not enough to keep him around.

    I agree that Ainge has made his play and will probably "win" this negotiation when Smart accepts the QO. Whether it's a win long term remains to be seen.
     

Share This Page