Friday Game Thread

wibi

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Jul 15, 2005
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Let's go chaos day. Thursday wasn't a day of chaos so hopefully Friday will be
 

CantKeepmedown

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Jul 15, 2005
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I need to go against the grain in my survivor pool. SMU and Cincy will be heavily picked. Any thoughts on Wichita St or URI? Or a higher seed that may lose their next game?
 

Drocca

darrell foster wallace
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Jul 21, 2005
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Ok what do we like today? 0-3 yesterday with Winthrop and Vermont killing me by one point. So far only the over on Ok St/UM sticks out.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
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I need to go against the grain in my survivor pool. SMU and Cincy will be heavily picked. Any thoughts on Wichita St or URI? Or a higher seed that may lose their next game?
Wichita State is a 6-point favorite. Only SMU (-6.5) is a safer bet today outside of 1-2-3 seeds. If you want an against-the-grain pick, that's where I'd go.

Other than WSU and Seton Hall, my bracket is all chalk today. Will be interesting to see who breaks that up; I'd be lying if I said I saw a big upset brewing.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Ok what do we like today? 0-3 yesterday with Winthrop and Vermont killing me by one point. So far only the over on Ok St/UM sticks out.
Went 2-0 in the early games with Princeton and South Dakota State......then went 0-2 at night losing Vermont by 1-point and North Dakota by a half point. The latter was ultra painful as I saw some 18 and 18.5's out there but both my places had 17.5 ugh.

My best today is Dayton +6 (over Wichita State). I'm considering a few others but this one stands out.
 

RIrooter09

Alvin
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Jul 31, 2008
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I need to go against the grain in my survivor pool. SMU and Cincy will be heavily picked. Any thoughts on Wichita St or URI? Or a higher seed that may lose their next game?
Wichita State all the way. They're an excellent team who is way underseeded, and won't have any survivor value going forward as they play Kentucky next.
 

CantKeepmedown

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Thanks for the input, maufman and RIrooter. I liked Wichita St from the beginning. Just trying not to psych myself out (reading articles where literally everyone is picking them). Enjoy the day!
 

Drocca

darrell foster wallace
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Jul 21, 2005
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Went 2-0 in the early games with Princeton and South Dakota State......then went 0-2 at night losing Vermont by 1-point and North Dakota by a half point. The latter was ultra painful as I saw some 18 and 18.5's out there but both my places had 17.5 ugh.

My best today is Dayton +6 (over Wichita State). I'm considering a few others but this one stands out.
Wichita State scares me, I can't get close to that game.

I like two overs today: 153.5 for OK St./Michigan State and 135.5 for Louisville/Jacksonville St.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Wichita State scares me, I can't get close to that game.

I like two overs today: 153.5 for OK St./Michigan State and 135.5 for Louisville/Jacksonville St.
I'll give away a secret. One of the most predictive handicapping tools is to be a public contrarian. I was taught this decades ago from a professional handicapper and now there are tools for everyone to track these. I subscribe to a site which tracks the pct of wagers on each team as well as the pct amount of wagers which you can then differentiate "public money" vs. "smart money." It is most predictive in the NFL, followed by NCAA football, then NCAA basketball. It is most certainly a +EV method. When everyone is on one side it is nearly always the favorite (if it isn't that's a red flag).......when that happens I'm either on the other side provided my other variables are also in place or I pass. I always stay disciplined in these plays and very rarely play a favorite as they rarely provide value in the line. Dayton isn't as strong as Princeton was yesterday but it's pretty close.
 
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mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
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I haven't watched Cincinnati all year, but I can't believe they're only favored by 3.5 against a K-State team that only looked OK in the play-in game. What's the catch?
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Wichita State is a 6-point favorite. Only SMU (-6.5) is a safer bet today outside of 1-2-3 seeds. If you want an against-the-grain pick, that's where I'd go.

Other than WSU and Seton Hall, my bracket is all chalk today. Will be interesting to see who breaks that up; I'd be lying if I said I saw a big upset brewing.
I actually kind of like USC at +6.5
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
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Sep 9, 2008
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OK State only has 2 fouls. They can go aggressively for steals.

Alternatively, if they need to foul late to force free throws, it might take a lot of time off the clock.
 

wibi

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Jul 15, 2005
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I am really glad Michigan is not in the west ... They have that feeling of a team that isnt going to lose for a while
 

Zososoxfan

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Jul 30, 2009
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Whew what a game! OKST pushed Mich all the way to the end, but Mich maybe missed 6-7 shots AND free throws in the second half? Lots of no-No-NO-YESSSSSSSSSSS that game.
 

Drocca

darrell foster wallace
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Jul 21, 2005
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I LOVED the over and made up for yesterday with that one. When I watched Ok St. in Maui in November I promised myself I would take the over in their NCAA games.
 

Zososoxfan

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Jul 30, 2009
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I LOVED the over and made up for yesterday with that one. When I watched Ok St. in Maui in November I promised myself I would take the over in their NCAA game.
FTFY.

Not a lot of defense though which is why I don't think Michigan will go far.
Michigan is not a great defense by any means, but their offense is elite and their D is setup to complement that. By which I mean during their resurgence, they made the conscious decision to defend the 3 harder and give up easier 2s. In other words, Michigan is so efficient on offense that they've largely been able to give up 2s at a higher clip, but still outscore the opposition because of an incredibly low TO rate and a high 3pt. percentage. OKST made life hard with outstanding offensive rebounding, but I think against other offenses Michigan's D will look better.
 

DanoooME

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Those were some of the worst photoshopped baseball cards they just showed of Gerald Hannahs during the SH-Ark game. Since they don't exist.