Free Agent Pitching. Who Do The Sox Get?
- Thread starter bosockboy
- Start date
Not a terrible summary. I'm not sure the Sox "were never going to get" two of the top guys but yeah, it's a longshot.
I don’t know what Montgomery and Yamamoto are going to get, but I’d do an AAV of $50M for both in a heartbeat. $60M is probably too much for both, but if you can’t get both for somewhere in between, I think you do it.
Out of curiosity what do you think Montgomery is worth by himself? Not so much what you think the Sox should offer, but rather in the overall market?
So let's call it $55M, where would that put the payroll in respects to the luxury tax threshold with what they are currently committed to and does it leave room for extensions and any other additions?
I think maybe $27M AAV… maybe something like 7/$189M… maybe more if things go crazy.
But I could be very wrong. I think MLBTR had him getting $25M, and I’d be fine giving him that, and would hope we would double down on Yamamoto if we got Montgomery first. I think we need two starters. Who knows what will come out of a trade.
I wasn’t a huge fan of E-Rod’s work when he was here. Anything over $18M or so, and I’d rather do nothing and try again next year.
I realize that $18M won’t get it done for E-Rod, and it’s not close - but I want him back that little.
I’d have him back for under $20M per and less than 4 years but he was a guy I also felt never lived up to his potential….. and then some smartass here would throw some numbers at me and show how good he actually was. So who knows…. If he’s THE off-season get, then it’d be a big disappointment. If he’s acquired a week after Yamamoto then I’d be thrilled
Montgomery’s “most similar through age 30” comps include both Zach Wheeler and Garret Richards, which completely explains my uncertainty surrounding potentially giving him close to $200M. Fingers crossed….
He’s a good pitcher but I’m not giving a $180-$200M deal to a 31 year-old non-ace SP.
The Sale $ coming off the books after ‘24 leads me also to believe that they’re looking at trades for someone to be in their final year of control who they will try to extend at Sale’s salary for ‘25-‘30. Possible names mentioned plenty in prior posts but also leads me to think they’re going 100% for Yamamoto as the only FA signing.
I think this is the most likely outcome. That said, it would not surprise me if Henry decided he couldn't keep Bloom due to PR reasons, but is going to keep the plan in place going forward with no big moves, hoping for a great season from Sale and Story and less injury bug issues.
Using existing salaries and ass-pulled Arb/tender guesses in a very lazy manner, I got about $222M, vs a $237M threshold. But I'm not using exact science here. Trading Verdugo could free up more room too... Cot's had $10M and change listed in the AAV for Turner, which I didn't count - because I think that's no longer accurate (?).
Another $49M in AAV getting freed up after this season with Sale, Martin and Jansen all off the books.
I should’ve modified that to say that while I think the Sox are going all in for Yamamoto, if they lose I think they’ll still add a FAstarter
I actually think the Sox will get two FA starters. I'm not sure why that is "unrealistic." They have the money to do it. It might be uncharacteristic of the Bloom era, but it's no longer the Bloom era. And if there is one characteristic trait of the Henry era its philosophical mood swings. I think they swing toward spending now, though hopefully with a sense of overall roster construction balance they had in the Epstein era.
Now, let's see if they're able to get the "right" guys. I'm bullish on Breslow, but we'll see!
Now, let's see if they're able to get the "right" guys. I'm bullish on Breslow, but we'll see!
In the context of Merloni's "interview", which I believe is what you were referring to, he only talked about it being "unrealistic" to sign two of the top FA starters - and mostly it was from a point of other teams with big budgets want these kind of guys too.
So he was saying something like signing Yamamoto and Nola was unrealistic or Snell and Montgomery, that type of thing. Which, with Nola basically only looking to get the best deal he possibly could out of Philly and the way the Yamamoto sweepstakes has taken off, is a pretty fair read.
It also falls in line with what a lot of us have been advocating for over a long time period, far before the off-season even, which is to sign one major FA and then trade some prospect capital for a younger, cost controlled top of the rotation starter, due to the limited supply of top end FA pitchers and the number of big market teams that are looking to spend.
I don't think Merloni (or anyone) would characterize the idea of something like ONE of Montomgery / Yamamoto / Snell and ONE of Rodriguez, Imanaga, Stroman, etc as unrealistic. He also even talked about lower tier FAs (Paxton, he mentioned by name, whom I want no part of returning if we are already depending on Sale to fill a rotation spot). I'd prefer that to go to someone with a bit more of a track record of durability because you already have one starter that is only going 2/3 of the season at best (Sale), but we'll see.
I can absolutely see a world where the Red Sox add Stroman and Imanaga in free agency and use prospect capital at Second and Right Field. Frankly, I'm not so sure I don't prefer that route vs. a 12 yr commitment to Yamamoto.
Susan Slusser (SF Chronicle) reports that “executives from two teams who have had interest in him told the Chronicle on Sunday they believe the Giants have the edge.”
View: https://twitter.com/susanslusser/status/1731478852122067399?s=46
Wouldn’t surprise me if the Giants outbid the field by like $50M after missing out on all their top FA targets the last couple years.
View: https://twitter.com/susanslusser/status/1731478852122067399?s=46
Wouldn’t surprise me if the Giants outbid the field by like $50M after missing out on all their top FA targets the last couple years.
Yeah wouldn’t be shocked by this. Giants gave stupid offers to Correa so they have money and aren’t afraid of being bold. If the Sox don’t get him, I hope it’s to an NL team like the Giants that I have no ill will towards.
I think this is the more interesting route and would agree. They aren't one player away from World Series contention and there are plenty of other teams who are and should be extremely aggressive.
They desperately need to hit internally with pitching because these free agent contracts are just going to get sillier. Upgrades elsewhere are going to get them wins too. They just aren't close enough for what they can do in this marker to leapfrog others, though maybe Breslow finds ways of being creative.
Just dear god, don't punt defense anymore.
They absolutely need to improve defense but if things stay completely status quo for next season (absolutely no changes to the roster- which is unlikely) they've already improved tremendously at defense with Story back full time and Rafaela in CF. I expect some improvement in LF whether that's Duran there or Yoshida just improving. Better defense at 1B too- Casas noticeably improved there throughout the season. 2B is still an issue, but I doubt Breslow will use Valdez there.
And.... while I don't advocate for it... Philly has shown that you can still win with a pretty crappy defense.
Okay, Philly has shown that you can still win with a pretty crappy defense if you are good-to-great in all other phases of the game.
Like I said, I'm not advocating for it. Mostly just commenting that if nothing changes between now and opening day, the defense is significantly better than they were looking in mid May last year. I expect improvement across the board except for Devers who I think is a lost cause defensively.... or maybe at best to improve enough just on mental focus enough to not be a horrifying nightmare out there.
I still think Yamamoto is their #1 target, but even if they're willing to back up the Brinks truck there's no guarantee they get him. I think Montgomery is their second choice - not impossible for them to end up with both, but unlikely. Hopefully they end up with one them. If they get one, I think the second may come through trade (maybe with Seattle if they get Snell). Below the top tier, I'd probably prefer Imanaga, then E-Rod. Not at all a fan of Stroman - I'd rather have Giolito.
I do think they will address 2B defense and RH power, but starting pitching is by far the biggest need.
I do think they will address 2B defense and RH power, but starting pitching is by far the biggest need.
At the same price, or at expected prices? Because Giolito hasn't been nearly as good as Stroman the last 2 years & this Fangraphs Paxton-esque "he knows how to fix what's wrong with him" article doesn't make me less concerned.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lucas-giolito-knows-what-he-needs-to-do-to-get-back-on-track/
