Guys, its not that hard. This is a debate about philosophy. For 8 years the Pats were the "smartest guy in the room," paring away talent in favor of price point value. They then pointed at their results to validate their theory of driving away (holding the line on) their own top end talent (Branch, Samuel, etc).
Its the same thing the Sox are going through now, where everyone hailed the Sox for drawing the line on their own talent (Damon, Manny) based on a belief that their metrics can find equal "hidden value" elsewhere even though not the same talent that most people see as obvious. That's why the analogy to the Sox, Teixeira and Bay (vs. value picks Cameron and Beltre, and earlier selections like JD Drew) is highly relevant.
Basically, having gotten talent through earlier drafting and cheap free agents gets attributed to a skill, rather than luck. That belief that you have this skill then creates the false impression that you need to hold onto proven talent or even overpay for it, because all talent is fungible, and you have the gift to find it (as has been cited on the main board about the not needing big name bats because we can find the Ortizes, Millars and Muellers like we did in 2003).
Then come a series of drafts (Watson, Maloney, Chad Jackson, etc.) and free agent signings (Spings, Adalius Thomas) and one comes to recognize that the earlier talent level had a great deal of luck that isn't replicable. The key is to hold on to the good finds, rather than being overly confident your ability to replicate the earlier success.
Its the same thing the Sox are going through now, where everyone hailed the Sox for drawing the line on their own talent (Damon, Manny) based on a belief that their metrics can find equal "hidden value" elsewhere even though not the same talent that most people see as obvious. That's why the analogy to the Sox, Teixeira and Bay (vs. value picks Cameron and Beltre, and earlier selections like JD Drew) is highly relevant.
Basically, having gotten talent through earlier drafting and cheap free agents gets attributed to a skill, rather than luck. That belief that you have this skill then creates the false impression that you need to hold onto proven talent or even overpay for it, because all talent is fungible, and you have the gift to find it (as has been cited on the main board about the not needing big name bats because we can find the Ortizes, Millars and Muellers like we did in 2003).
Then come a series of drafts (Watson, Maloney, Chad Jackson, etc.) and free agent signings (Spings, Adalius Thomas) and one comes to recognize that the earlier talent level had a great deal of luck that isn't replicable. The key is to hold on to the good finds, rather than being overly confident your ability to replicate the earlier success.