Every Single Hitter Is Hitting Worse Than He Did in 2016

reggiecleveland

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Mar 5, 2004
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I think that in order to make any kind of assessment - we need to know exactly what the hitting coaches and players are doing. Are the coaches working with them beneath the stands on a particular pitch every day? Are they sitting with video? Are small adjustments being proposed and worked on in the cage? Are pitchers throwing live pitches to them on work-out days? Has the season taken a toll and no more instruction is warranted due to injuries and stamina?

These are all just guesses, but to criticize one needs to know what the practices are and if/why they aren't working or even being attempted. Maybe someone else knows.

Also, did I read somewhere that hitters dropping their hands is a sign of some sort of injury or weakness? Can't recall.
Well we can never criticize or praise a coach with that standard. A pattern of improvement is how we generally attempt to evaluate coaches. Others have been explained the chances of a random decline across the board are remote. If I was the shooting coach for an NBA team and my whole team was shooting worse than last year, I would expect to be questioned.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Aug 1, 2001
16,869
Everyone in this lineup seems to be hitting around .270 with about 15 HRs, which reminds me of a lot of the years Yaz and Rico had in the 70’s, after the glory years of ’67 and the 40 HR seasons, in the polyester sansabelt uniform era.

It’s like we have a whole team putting up the numbers on the backs of late-period Rico and Muttonchop Yaz baseball cards.

Betts: .262, 18 HR, .775 OPS
1976 Yaz: .267, 21 HR, .790 OPS



Hanley: .242, only 54 RBI, .758 OPS
1973 Rico: .244, only 45 RBI, .729 OPS


Bradley: .257, 15 HR, .762 OPS
1974 Rico: .267, 15 HR, .757 OPS


Benintendi: .270, 19 HR, 75 RBI, .782 OPS
1979 Yaz: .270, 21 HR, 87 RBI, .796 OPS




Devers: .290, 858 OPS
1973 Yaz: .296, .870 OPS


Xander: .268, 8 HR, .730 OPS
1972 Yaz: .264, 12 HR, .748 OPS


Pedroia: .776 OPS
1975 Yaz: 776 OPS


Moreland: .248, 18 HR, 65 RBI, .764 OPS
1971 Yaz: .254, 15 HR, 70 RBI, .772 OPS




Catchers: .260, 10 HRs, 63 RBI
1983 Yaz: .266, 10 HR, 56 RBI




Young: .233, 7 HR
1975 Rico: .239, 7 HR




Nunez: .311, 8 HR, .871 OPS
1974 Yaz: .301, 15 HR, .859 OPS




Marrero: .214, .582 OPS
1976 Rico:
.213, .594 OPS
 
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KenTremendous

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Jul 23, 2006
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Partridge, KS
Update, with 2 games left:

OPS+, 2017 vs. 2016

C Leon -52 (worse than when the thread started)
1B Ramirez -32 (w)
2B Pedroia -16 (w)
SS Bogaerts -16
3B Holt -49 (37 OPS+ in 162 AB)
LF Benintendi -14 (w)
CF Bradley -28 (w)
RF Betts -26
4th OF Young -35 (w)

So, every regular from last year's team is still hitting double-digits worse, by OPS+, than he did last year. The one exception would be Vaz, who now could be considered the regular catcher over Leon, and who is +40 (55 last year, 95 this year).

The Red Sox have exactly three returning hitters with even a positive OPS+: Pedey (101), Benny (104), Mookie (107). Everyone else is a below league-average hitter. Devers (112) and Nunez (129, in 173 AL PA) are also in the black, though if you remove Devers' first like 7 games he is essentially league average.

These are good young hitters, and they have lost massive chunks of their production. Vazquez was so bad last year even his massive gain doesn't even get him to league average. This team is deeply mediocre at hitting. I just don't understand how they all fell off so dramatically.

Edited to add: Brock Holt's OPS+ in 162 AB makes me sad at a very deep, fundamental level.
 
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strek1

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Jun 13, 2006
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Hartford area
Add to that Moreland who is certainly no replacement for David Ortiz. (I know he's not supposed to be just noting the drop off in production between a new guy and a guy who's gone). Plus - think we could have used Shaw?
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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It really is amazing. You expect some guys to prove and others to be worse but ALL of them being worse that the same time? What are the odds of that? Even a random coin flip nine times gets you 1 in 512. Crazy.
 

BroodsSexton

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Feb 4, 2006
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It really is amazing. You expect some guys to prove and others to be worse but ALL of them being worse that the same time? What are the odds of that? Even a random coin flip nine times gets you 1 in 512. Crazy.
Stupendous Man tried to figure it out. I wonder if anyone took him up on his wager.

The OP provided a list of 9 players, each of whom has a lower OPS+ in 2017 than he did in 2016. Why might that happen?

First, it can happen by pure chance. If we pretend that all players have a fixed baseline of performance, with random variations around it, then the chances that one player has a lower OPS+ this year vs. last year is 0.50. The probability that 9 players have a lower OPS+ this year vs. last is (0.5)^9 = 1/512. Given that there are 32 teams in MLB, we might expect this to happen to _some_ team in the league once every 16 years or so.

But players do not, in general, have the same baseline performance each year. Players tend to improve from age 20 to about age 28, then decline after that. A team with many older players would be more likely to experience this "total-team-decline" (TTD) than a team with many younger players. The Sox have 5 starters under age 28, so this explanation does not apply.

Another factor which causes changes in performance is injury. A player who is injured, but returns to the lineup, will perform less well for some period of time. We can account for this very roughly by assuming that any player who falls into this category will have a lower OPS+ than he did the previous year, leaving only the healthy starters to vary in a random manner. Pedroia, Bogaerts and Ramirez have all suffered from nagging injuries this year, and Bradley has missed quite a few games recently.

Suppose that 3 of the 9 starters on a team suffer some sort of significant injury -- bad enough to lower their performance, but not _so_ bad that they stop playing completely. That would leave 6 players subject to random variation. The probability that 6 healthy players all perform worse than the previous year, due solely to chance, is (0.5)^6 = 1/64. _If_ every team should fall into the "3 starters suffer injuries" category every year (which is not the case), then we'd expect one team every other year to see a TTD.

My guess is that the combinations of nagging injuries and just plain bad luck are responsible for the current situation, rather than some external influence affecting all players (bad coaching, radon in the dugout, etc.). It is an unusual circumstance for the team we follow (though it might not be unusual on a league-side basis), so we notice it and try to find some meaning to explain it.

Now, if this is largely random chance, then it's possible that the situation will change before the end of the year: teams have only played about 85% of the entire season, and so the healthy players may (by chance) get hot for the last few weeks. Challenge to those who see a nefarious influence behind the situation: put your money where your mouth is. I'll wager that at least one of the players listed above DOES finish the 2017 season with a better OPS+ than he did in 2016. If I'm wrong, I'll donate $10 to the Jimmy Fund per poster who bets against me; If I'm right, you donate $10 to the Jimmy Fund. This wager limited to 10 posters.

If you believe that Farrell or Davis is to blame, post in this thread to accept my wager.
 

threecy

Cosbologist
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Sep 1, 2006
1,587
Tamworth, NH
Injuries and wear/tear seem to be at least partially responsible. Most of these players had portions of the season in which they were plus hitters.

Hypothesis that I have no idea can be proved/rejected: are the Red Sox playing through injuries moreso than in previous years (in other words, under previous management, would players in similar circumstances be benched or put on the 15 day DL)?
 

Rovin Romine

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Jul 14, 2005
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Injuries and wear/tear seem to be at least partially responsible. Most of these players had portions of the season in which they were plus hitters.

Hypothesis that I have no idea can be proved/rejected: are the Red Sox playing through injuries moreso than in previous years (in other words, under previous management, would players in similar circumstances be benched or put on the 15 day DL)?
Like in 2011?
 

Harry Hooper

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Injuries and wear/tear seem to be at least partially responsible. Most of these players had portions of the season in which they were plus hitters.

Hypothesis that I have no idea can be proved/rejected: are the Red Sox playing through injuries moreso than in previous years (in other words, under previous management, would players in similar circumstances be benched or put on the 15 day DL)?
I don't see a departure from previous seasons. Under the H/W/L ownership, the Sox have seemingly embraced an ethos of playing through injuries and enduring performance drops. The team probably isn't exploiting the shorter DL period as much as they should. Farrell has had to work with a very short bench at various points, and getting more rest for regulars in the post-greenies era would be a plus as well.
 

charlieoscar

Member
Sep 28, 2014
1,339
There are 44 batters who have had at least 400 PA in each of the 2015, 2016, and 2017 seasons for one AL team and another 7 who played for more than one team (at the bottom of the table. I listed them with their age in the 2015 season and show their OPS for each season along with the difference between their highest and lowest OPS. The average (sum of OPS/n) is .104 with a min of 0.014 to .246. In general, I think one would expect to see the OPS of younger players to rise as they get more experience and the OPS of older ones to start declining after they get into their 30s. This is not a large sample size but I think it does show quite a bit of variance from year-to-year with players who did not change teams. It obviously does not take injuries into consideration but increasing the minimum number of PA per season would cut down on the number of players. For whatever reason teh addition of this table has added a lot of blank lines to my post. Scroll down for the table.
AgeName201520162017Delta
29Adam Jones.782.746.787.041
35Albert Pujols.787.780.680.107
28Alcides Escobar.614.642.625.028
31Alex Gordon*.809.692.612.197
24Avisail Garcia.675.692.886.211
31Brett Gardner*.742.713.780.067
28Brian Dozier.751.886.847.135
20Carlos Correa.857.811.937.126
29Carlos Santana#.752.865.825.113
31Chase Headley#.693.716.758.065
29Chris Davis*.923.792.740.183
25Didi Gregorius*.688.751.798.110
31Dustin Pedroia.797.825.760.065
26Elvis Andrus.667.800.811.144
25Eric Hosmer*.822.761.874.113
29Evan Longoria.764.840.734.106
21Francisco Lindor#.835.794.846.052
25George Springer.826.815.894.079
31Hanley Ramirez.717.866.749.149
33Ian Kinsler.770.831.726.105
31Jacoby Ellsbury*.663.703.756.093
32Joe Mauer*.718.752.798.080
28Jose Abreu.850.820.907.087
25Jose Altuve.812.928.964.152
34Jose Bautista.913.817.677.236
25Jose Iglesias.717.643.659.074
29Josh Donaldson.939.953.951.014
25Kevin Kiermaier*.718.741.791.073
26Kevin Pillar.713.679.704.034
27Kole Calhoun*.731.786.716.070
27Kyle Seager*.779.859.775.084
29Lorenzo Cain.838.747.804.091
22Manny Machado.861.876.788.088
32Miguel Cabrera.974.956.728.246
23Mike Trout.991.9911.084.093
22Mookie Betts.820.897.795.102
34Nelson Cruz.936.915.929.021
23Nicholas Castellanos.721.827.815.106
32Robinson Cano*.779.882.795.103
21Rougned Odor*.781.798.645.153
25Salvador Perez.706.725.792.086
26Steven Souza.717.713.813.100
36Victor Martinez#.667.826.697.159
22Xander Bogaerts.776.802.745.057
------------
25Brad Miller*.730.786.651.135
38Carlos Beltran#.808.850.665.185
32Edwin Encarnacion.929.886.890.043
32Kendrys Morales#.847.795.753.094
30Melky Cabrera#.709.800.750.091
33Mike Napoli.734.800.713.087
29Mitch Moreland*.812.720.767.092
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Most of the lost production is slugging related, too. In a year where balls are flying out of the park, no less. It's also odd because there really aren't any noodle bats in the Sox lineup (Pedroia this year, maybe. He has drastic ISO swings.) but there aren't any intimidating ones either. No hard outs, no easy outs.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Plus - think we could have used Shaw?
In the first half, yeah. Last 51 games and 211 PA, Shaw is slashing .227/.310/.389. Even with that, he'd still easily be the Sox best hitter this year but who knows where his true talent lies. The average hitter has about a .370-.380 ISO on fly balls while Shaw is rocking a .597 this year. If you normalize his FB luck, his season line of .272/.347/.513 changes to .257/.333/.444. Still a lot better than Pablo Sandoval, especially when you factor in Shaw's defense.

edit: Shaw could, of course, be better than league average vs FB. In 2015 and 2016, however, he was slightly worse than league average in batting average and slugging, but within 10 points of both.
 
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benhogan

Granite Truther
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Nov 2, 2007
20,339
Santa Monica
The only thing worse than our light hitting line-up was the awful bats coming off the bench: Young, Holt, Rutledge, Lin, Marrero, Davis, Leon, Hernandez, Travis. You'd hope one of these guys, in a short amount of at-bats, would surprise to the upside (maybe Marrero's splits versus LHP falls under this category).

Sorry Chili/Victor, you can't have every single player hitting this poorly and not catch some heat.
 
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joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
30,612
Does bref or anyone else compare non-regulars across teams. (Fewer than 250 pa, or some reasonable number.)
Until I see that it's hard to know how bad the Sox bench was.
Besides, Lin and Travis did ok. Lin, in fact, along with lh marrero, were 3b fisters after Sandoval was released.
Holt's brain was wrecked, and Leon is a defense first catcher who hit pretty much where he always did, except for a couple of months. (He probably his from the hitting coaches then).
The other guys are cannon fodder. That leaves young.
 

charlieoscar

Member
Sep 28, 2014
1,339
Don't know if this is what you are looking for but it is a list of OPS+ for all players with at least 100 PA and not more than 250 PA grouped by team. from bb-ref's Play Index. One could do the list by AVG or OBP or SLG or OPS.

OPS+ Tm Player
52 ARI Jeff Mathis
54 ARI Rey Fuentes
71 ARI Gregor Blanco
78 ARI Nick Ahmed
87 ARI Yasmany Tomas
57 ATL Rio Ruiz
57 ATL Adonis Garcia
68 ATL Jace Peterson
114 ATL Ozzie Albies
115 ATL Lane Adams
57 BAL Ruben Tejada
94 BAL Craig Gentry
40 BOS Brock Holt
49 BOS Josh Rutledge
57 BOS Deven Marrero
112 BOS Rafael Devers
126 CHC Tommy La Stella
89 CHW Willy Garcia
100 CHW Yoan Moncada
130 CHW Nick Delmonico
13 CIN Arismendy Alcantara
83 CIN Patrick Kivlehan
86 CIN Devin Mesoraco
131 CIN Jesse Winker
44 CLE Giovanny Urshela
72 CLE Brandon Guyer
73 CLE Roberto Perez
76 CLE Erik Gonzalez
77 CLE Abraham Almonte
79 CLE Yandy Diaz
52 COL Alexi Amarista
64 COL Ryan Hanigan
85 COL Raimel Tapia
99 COL Pat Valaika
30 DET JaCoby Jones
61 DET Tyler Collins
68 DET Dixon Machado
103 DET John Hicks
90 HOU Derek Fisher
37 KCR Jorge Soler
60 KCR Cheslor Cuthbert
62 KCR Drew Butera
57 LAA Jefry Marte
77 LAA Cliff Pennington
87 LAA Kaleb Cowart
96 LAA Eric Young
101 LAD Andrew Toles
68 MIA Tomas Telis
70 MIA Martin Prado
71 MIA JT Riddle
75 MIA Tyler Moore
77 MIA Ichiro Suzuki
80 MIA A.J. Ellis
67 MIL Jett Bandy
68 MIN Zack Granite
90 MIN Ehire Adrianza
91 MIN Chris Gimenez
73 NYM Dominic Smith
73 NYM Matt Reynolds
78 NYM Amed Rosario
100 NYM T.J. Rivera
105 NYM Kevin Plawecki
114 NYM Brandon Nimmo
50 NYY Austin Romine
70 NYY Chris Carter
83 NYY Greg Bird
87 NYY Clint Frazier
59 OAK Josh Phegley
72 OAK Mark Canha
89 OAK Jaycob Brugman
164 OAK Matt Olson
46 PHI Andres Blanco
97 PHI Andrew Knapp
118 PHI Daniel Nava
129 PHI Jorge Alfaro
167 PHI Rhys Hoskins
24 PIT Chris Stewart
52 PIT Elias Diaz
60 PIT Max Moroff
80 PIT Jose Osuna
22 SDP Luis Torrens
58 SDP Allen Cordoba
76 SDP Hector Sanchez
84 SDP Jabari Blash
87 SDP Ryan Schimpf
80 SEA Carlos Ruiz
40 SFG Ryder Jones
45 SFG Christian Arroyo
74 SFG Kelby Tomlinson
87 SFG Jarrett Parker
97 SFG Austin Slater
95 STL Luke Voit
72 TBR Derek Norris
76 TBR Daniel Robertson
78 TBR Peter Bourjos
83 TBR Rickie Weeks
89 TBR Jesus Sucre
98 TBR Wilson Ramos
138 TBR Colby Rasmus
64 TEX Ryan Rua
91 TEX Drew Robinson
6 TOR Luke Maile
87 TOR Devon Travis
38 TOT Leonys Martin
47 TOT Nick Franklin
50 TOT Dustin Garneau
51 TOT Sean Rodriguez
56 TOT Danny Santana
59 TOT Ty Kelly
60 TOT Michael Saunders
63 TOT Hyun Soo Kim
64 TOT Alen Hanson
73 TOT Miguel Montero
90 TOT Matt Szczur
92 TOT Rene Rivera
107 TOT Boog Powell
112 TOT Jeimer Candelario
35 WSN Jose Lobaton
70 WSN Stephen Drew
121 WSN Adam Eaton
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
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My main takeaway from that is that everyone on the Red Sox except Nunez has been outhit by Daniel Nava this year.